A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For December 12- 13/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 57th Day

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Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For December 12-13/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 57th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
December 13/2019

Tites For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 12-13/2019
US senior official to visit Lebanon next week
Lebanon’s FPM Says Won’t Join New Gov’t on Hariri Terms
Bassil Says FPM Won’t Join Techno-Political Govt., Urges Technocrat PM, Ministers
As Lebanon talks to IMF, Fitch warns of possible debt default
Fitch Downgrades Lebanon Credit Rating to CC
International Transparency: 47 Percent of Lebanese Bribed in Elections
Lebanon Protesters Rally against State Institutions
Private Firms Declare Collective Tax Revolt amid Crisis
Bassil’s decision not to participate in a new government
Lebanese State Sues MP Hadi Hbeish
Bassil Meets Berri, Tells Him He ‘Misses Dialogue’ with Him
Hariri Cancels Trip to Moscow
Hariri Keen on Economic Rescue Plan
AMAL, Hizbullah Supporters Try to Storm Riad al-Solh, Repelled by Tear Gas
UK Defense Official Vows Continued Support for Lebanese Army

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 12-13/2019
US senior official to visit Lebanon next week
The National/December 12/2019
The National has learnt that undersecretary of state for political affairs David Hale is heading to Beirut. US undersecretary of state for political affairs David Hale will be in Lebanon next week as negotiations over government formation intensify and anti-corruption protests approach their third month. Mr Hale, who served as ambassador to Lebanon, will be flying to Beirut next week, sources in Washington confirmed to The National. He will be the highest level official to visit the country since the protests broke out on October 17 and led to the government resigning. The Lebanese presidency has tentatively scheduled consultations for forming a government on Monday, but there is no consensus so far on naming a prime minister or the nature of the next cabinet. Protesters have been advocating a government of technocrats to address the urgent economic crisis. Two candidates for the position, Samir Khatib and Mohammad Safadi, have withdrawn their candidacy after being met with uproar from demonstrators. Lebanon’s political elite has also failed to attract financial support from the international community, as economists warn of a looming crash. Those attending a meeting for Lebanon’s support group in France this week made it clear that no bailout or financial assistance would be granted without serious reforms. They agreed to give technical advice to Lebanese institutions but will not provide the bailout that caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri requested, the US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, David Schenker, told AP. “There’s no aid package, there is no bailout,” Mr Schenker said. “Lebanon is not being saved from its financial mess.” Firas Maksad, a professor at George Washington University, said Mr Hale’s visit was to emphasise that there would be “no free bailout”. “The US administration is adamant in conditioning any future aid to Lebanon on the formation of a government that can deliver on the people’s demand for meaningful reforms,” Mr Maksad said. “David Hale will be delivering this firm message to officials in Beirut.“The US approach combines traditional American values of supporting peoples’ legitimate demands, with its more immediate geopolitical objectives in pressuring Iran’s regional allies including Hezbollah.”

Lebanon’s FPM Says Won’t Join New Gov’t on Hariri Terms
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 12 December, 2019
The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) will not join a new government under the terms insisted on by caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, but it will not obstruct the formation of a new cabinet, its leader Gebran Bassil, who is Lebanon’s Foreign Minister, said on Thursday. Bassil called for the formation of a government made up entirely of technocrats including its prime minister, appearing to leave the door open for participation on different terms. “If Prime Minister Hariri insists on the equation ‘either me or nobody else’ (as prime minister) … we in the FPM … are not concerned in participating in such a government, because its fate will be certain failure,” said Bassil, who is President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law. Six weeks since Hariri resigned in the face of unprecedented protests against the country’s elite, political leaders have failed to agree on a new premier and government, steps seen as a prerequisite for restoring confidence and earning foreign assistance. Hariri has reemerged as a candidate to head the next government after Samir Khatib withdrew his candidacy. Foreign diplomats decided at a closed-door meeting in Paris on Wednesday that Lebanon cannot expect to receive international aid for its battered economy until a new government undertakes serious reforms. The international group, led by France and the United Nations, met to discuss conditions for helping ease turmoil in Lebanon.

Bassil Says FPM Won’t Join Techno-Political Govt., Urges Technocrat PM, Ministers
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday announced that the FPM will not take part in any techno-political government, calling for a government led by a technocrat and comprising technocrat ministers. “Should (caretaker) PM (Saad) Hariri insist on the ‘me or no one else’ equation and should Hizbullah and AMAL (Movement) insist on their approach on facing external threats through a techno-political cabinet led by Hariri, we in the FPM and the Strong Lebanon bloc are not interested in taking part in such a government, because it will be doomed to fail,” Bassil said after a meeting for the Strong Lebanon bloc. “We certainly do not allow a breach of the National Pact or the bypassing of real representation, that’s why we would give our seats to the protest movement, if it wants so, or to trustable figures if it does not want to take part,” Bassil added. “We won’t take part and we won’t incite (against such a government), but we will form a strong opposition against the current financial, economic and monetary policies, and we will resist the corruption network that has been in place for 30 years, which some want to maintain through replicating the same government,” the FPM chief went on to say.
Addressing partners keen on the FPM’s presence in the government, Bassil called on them to return to “our main proposal which was rejected,” calling on all parties to “reevaluate their stance.”Stressing that the solution is “the formation of an effective salvation government, a government of experts whose head and members would be competent, upright and eligible experts capable of regaining people’s confidence and addressing all files.”Bassil added that such a premier and ministers should be “backed by the political forces and parliamentary blocs.”“I’m fully confident that, at the current stage, such a government is the only serious chance for salvation and preventing collapse, and in our opinion this issue deserves sacrifices,” he went on to say. Hariri has said he would only return as premier if it was to head a government of technocrats. But Bassil on Thursday rejected such a solution that would see Hariri as the only survivor of the last cabinet. “It’s as if he were the only one not responsible for the (economic) collapse and not accused of corruption,” Bassil said.

As Lebanon talks to IMF, Fitch warns of possible debt default
Al Jazeera/December 12/2019
Ratings agency also warns of further political unrest stemming from US dollar rationing to prioritise debt repayments.
Ratings agency Fitch cut Lebanon’s credit rating for a third time in a year on Thursday, warning it now expects the crisis-hit country to restructure or default on its debt. Fitch said its decision to chop the rating to CC from CCC reflected its view that a restructuring or default was now “probable owing to acute political uncertainty, de facto capital controls and damaged confidence in the banking sector”. That will deter capital flows vital to meeting the country’s financing needs, while the emergence of a parallel exchange rate and the failure of the central bank to fully service its foreign currency obligations also highlighted the strains, Fitch added. “Indications of recession, together with restricted access to bank deposits and goods shortages magnify the risk of further social unrest. Rationing of U.S. dollars to prioritise repayment of government debt may become a more politically charged issue,” said Fitch.
Discontent with economic mismanagement and corruption in Lebanon exploded into nationwide protests starting in October. Demonstrators continue to take to the streets to demand an overhaul of the country’s political system to set it on the road to financial recovery.
Lebanon’s public debt burden, equivalent to about 150 of gross domestic product (GDP), is one of the heaviest in the world. Last year’s deficit was equal to about 11.5 percent of GDP, and economic growth rates have been weak for years. Lebanon relies heavily on remittances for foreign exchange, but transfers of money from abroad have dried up, leading to a shortage of United States dollars that in turn has hammered the value of the Lebanese pound. Banks have effectively imposed capital controls limiting the amount of dollars customers can withdraw or transfer out of the country.
As the crisis deepens, citizens are struggling to pay their bills and business are laying off workers and cutting salaries. This week the country’s caretaker finance minister warned that there has been a sharp fall-off in government revenues as a result of Lebanon’s worst financial crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, which means this year’s deficit will also be much bigger than expected. Fitch said rising dollarisation – where citizens exchange their money into US dollars – and the emergence of a parallel or black market exchange rate is also exerting growing pressure on the peg of the Lebanese pound to the US dollar, which has existed since 1997. Soon after Fitch’s cut, the office of Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri said he had discussed possible “technical assistance” with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.In a statement, Hariri’s office said he told World Bank President David Malpass and IMF head Kristalina Georgieva he was committed to preparing an urgent plan that could be implemented once a new government was formed.The news saw Lebanon’s government bonds rally.

Fitch Downgrades Lebanon Credit Rating to CC
Naharnet/December 12/2019
International ratings agency Fitch on Thursday bumped Lebanon’s credit rating down to “CC” from “CCC”, after an initial downgrade in August. “The downgrade of Lebanon’s ratings reflects Fitch’s view that a government debt restructuring or default is probable owing to acute political uncertainty, de facto capital controls and damaged confidence in the banking sector,” it said.

International Transparency: 47 Percent of Lebanese Bribed in Elections
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Transparency International published a new report on the level of corruption revealing that Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine top the countries of the Middle East and North Africa in terms of the number of citizens who have been bribed for their votes in elections. The report included a survey in which 6,600 citizens from 6 Arab countries participated, namely: Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia and Morocco. The report showed that 47 percent of Lebanese participants were offered a bribe in exchange for their votes, 26 percent in Jordan, and 12 percent in Palestine. It also showed that 28 percent of Lebanese participants were subject to threats in a bid to force them into voting for a particular party. This percentage falls to 4 percent in Palestine and 3 percent in Jordan. At the level of public utilities services, Lebanon topped the list again with a rate of 51 percent of respondents who said that they used mediators to facilitate access to public services such as electricity and water, then Jordan and Palestine at a rate of 21 percent each.

Lebanon Protesters Rally against State Institutions
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Protest movement against the political class over official mismanagement and corruption continue in Lebanon for the 57th day with protests taking different shapes from street marches, massive rallies in main squares and protests near the state’s institutions. In the northern town of Halba, angry campaigners rallied near the town’s Serail demanding the mayor step down as they accused him of corruption and waste of public funds. “We are ready for anything they (protesters) want but they are not entitled to make me resign. The interior ministry is,” the mayor said in remarks to LBCI reporter, while leaving his office surrounded by security forces as chants demanding his resignation resonated in the background. In Jounieh, protesters rallied near the car registration office preventing access for employees who were in their offices before the groups arrived. In Beirut’s area of Chevrolet, protesters rallied in front of the Cybercrime Bureau in solidarity with detained activists, Shakib Haider and Shadia Abu Dhiyab, appearing before the court against the backdrop of a lawsuit filed against them by caretaker Minister Wael Abu Faour of the Progressive Socialist Party. Under the slogan of “give us back our stolen money,” protesters in Lebanon’s Bekaa region staged a sit-in near the National Social Security Fund in Zahle. Lebanon has been rocked by unprecedented popular protests over official mismanagement and corruption since October 17. On Wednesday, the International Support Group for Lebanon, led by France and the United Nations, met to discuss conditions for helping ease turmoil in Lebanon, which is facing its worst financial crisis in decades and political uncertainty amid an ongoing protest movement. But Lebanon’s appeal for urgent aid received short shrift making assistance conditional on the formation of a new reform-minded government. Prime Minister Saad Hariri stepped down two weeks into the revolt, but a deeply divided political class has failed to reach agreement on a new head of government. Hariri remains caretaker premier.

Private Firms Declare Collective Tax Revolt amid Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 12/2019
Hundreds of private owned businesses announced a collective tax strike that they said would “lend their value to workers instead to maintain their livelihood,” as Lebanon passes through an unprecedented economic crisis that saw hundreds of employees laid off. Lebanese business owners gathered Wednesday in central Beirut to protest the delay in forming a new government and threatening a collective tax strike. Organizers said most private businesses have already been unable to pay taxes and are still getting slapped with penalties. Billions of dollars are paid annually by the private sector, companies and individuals, as taxes and fees, “but it turns out that a large part of it goes into the pockets of some beneficiaries to finance an inflating public sector, money squandering and corruption,” organizers said. In recent weeks, hundreds of people have been laid off or are receiving reduced salaries, while many businesses had to shut down. “Workers deserve this money better,” the organizers said. “They bear the consequences of the state’s waste and corruption that caused their companies to close down after the public deficit drained the banks ’money and left the companies in disguised capital control.”

Bassil’s decision not to participate in a new government
Michael Young/December 12/2019
Bassil’s decision not to participate in a new government is a fundamental moment in the uprising in Lebanon. His decision leaves Amal-Hezbollah isolated, suggesting Hezbollah may have to recalibrate toward a more popularly acceptable government headed by Hariri.1 I honestly don’t know, but his move seemed to be more than just a tactical move. Yes, he may be trying to force Hezbollah to choose between Hariri and him, but under the present circumstances it’s clear that Hezbollah has more of a stake in Hariri taking over. I have argued this. By trying to preserve the system as is, Hezbollah has accelerated its demise. Is this a break? I don’t think so, but did Bassil step down because he felt Hezbollah was prepared to compromise over him? That’s important to find out.

Lebanese State Sues MP Hadi Hbeish
Naharnet/December 12/2019
The Lebanese state, represented by the head of the lawsuits dept. at the Justice Ministry Judge Hilana Iskandar and its legal delegate the lawyer Rabih al-Fakhri, has filed a lawsuit against MP Hadi Hbeish, the National News Agency reported on Thursday. The lawsuit accuses Hbeish of “launching a public assault against Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun in front of all those present in the lobby of the Justice Palace in Baabda on Wednesday.” It also calls for “arresting him and referring him to the relevant judicial authorities and obliging him to pay not less than $100 million in compensations to the Lebanese state in light of the harm that his actions caused to the prestige of the state and its judiciary.” NNA noted that Hbeish’s actions are punishable under articles 381 and 382 of the penal code. Judge Aoun had earlier in the day filed a personal lawsuit against Hbeish, accusing him of libel, slander and the launch of threats, demanding his interrogation, detention and prosecution. The judge attached video recordings showing how Hbeish “stormed her office and insulted her in person,” NNA said. Videos that emerged Wednesday show Hbeish launching a blistering verbal attack on Aoun outside her office.
The lawmaker, who is also a lawyer, accused the judge of “corruption” and “thuggery” in connection with her decision to order the arrest of Huda Salloum — the head of the Traffic, Trucks and Vehicles Management Authority — over a graft lawsuit.

Bassil Meets Berri, Tells Him He ‘Misses Dialogue’ with Him
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday held talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh. The National News Agency said Berri’s adviser and caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil joined the meeting after it got underway and that the talks tackled the political developments. According to media reports, Bassil told Berri that he “misses dialogue” with him. “In this country, there is no alternative to dialogue,” Berri reportedly answered.

Hariri Cancels Trip to Moscow

Naharnet/December 12/2019
Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri has cancelled a visit scheduled next week to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday.
The two-day visit was set between December 16-17 and was agreed before Hariri submitted his resignation on October 29, said the daily. According to Russian diplomatic sources, the Russian embassy sent a cable to Lebanon’s foreign ministry at the beginning of this week requesting the necessary measures be taken to cancel the meeting, provided that a new date will be set later on.
The sources said it might take place in mid-January.

Hariri Keen on Economic Rescue Plan
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri held telephone calls with World Bank President David Malpas and Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christina Georgieva, and discussed with them the economic and monetary difficulties facing Lebanon, his media office said on Thursday.
Hariri reiterated his commitment to prepare an urgent rescue plan to address the crisis in Lebanon, pending the formation of a new government capable of implementing it. Hariri also discussed the technical assistance that both the Wold Bank and IMF can provide in the framework of preparing this plan.
His talks with Malpas discussed the possibility for the bank’s international financing company to increase contribution to international trade financing for Lebanon.

AMAL, Hizbullah Supporters Try to Storm Riad al-Solh, Repelled by Tear Gas
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 12/2019
Tension rose in central Beirut when a group of young men tried to attack the epicenter of the anti-government protests, prompting security forces to fire tear gas. Dozens of men threw stones and Molotov cocktails at anti-riot police who deployed to stop the advancing assailants. Police pushed them back firing rounds of tear-gas. The group of mainly young men who came from the impoverished Khandaq al-Ghamiq area were chanting “Shia, Shia!” as they approached the area of anti-government protesters.
It is not the first time supporters of the two main Shiite groups in Lebanon, Hizbullah and AMAL Movement, attacked the protesters’ site.

UK Defense Official Vows Continued Support for Lebanese Army
Naharnet/December 12/2019
Lieutenant General Sir John Lorimer, the UK’s Defense Senior Adviser to the Middle East and North Africa, visited to Lebanon on December 11 and held high level meetings with Lebanese officials, accompanied by the British Embassy’s Defense Attaché, Lieutenant Colonel Alex Hilton.
His meetings included discussions with the President Michel Aoun, the Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, the Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the Caretaker Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, Director General of General Security, and the Lebanese Armed Forces Commander, General Joseph Aoun, the British embassy said in a statement. “Sir John discussed the current situation in Lebanon, the urgent efforts to form a government that reflects people’s aspiration, and the role of the Lebanese Army and Security Forces in protecting protesters and maintaining law and order,” the statement said. At the end of his visit, Sir John said: “I am visiting Lebanon at a critical time in its history. The country faces many urgent challenges and the UK continues to offer its support; in October we announced additional funding of $25 million for the Lebanese Army (2019-2022), part of our ongoing support to the Lebanese Army, the sole legitimate defender of Lebanon.” He added: “They are entrusted with keeping Lebanon safe — including securing the borders, preventing terrorism and protecting the right to peaceful protests – and I commend them on their professional performance. It is vital that the Lebanese security agencies continue to protect the right to peaceful protest, and those who seek to suppress the protest movement through violence and intimidation should understand that this is completely unacceptable.” British Ambassador Chris Rampling for his part said: “A good visit for Lieutenant General Sir John Lorimer, the UK’s Defense Senior Adviser on the Middle East. The International Support Group meeting in Paris yesterday was a demonstration that the ISG is here to support a Lebanon that is committed to reform. Lebanon needs a government urgently.”“We have been clear that the matter of choosing leaders and a Cabinet is a domestic issue for the Lebanese. The people of Lebanon have been clear in their demand for improved governance, and they should be heard,” he added.


Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 12-13/2019
International community pressures Lebanon to accept new road map/Randa Takieddine/Arab News/December 12/ 2019
Lebanon’s banking sector under immense pressure, warns Pompeo/Christina Farhat/Annahar/December12/2019
Director of Traffic Management Body detained, causes uproar/Chiri Choukeir/Annahar/December 12/2019
The redefining of socioeconomic classes in Lebanon/Dan Azzi/Annahar/December 12/2019
What Does it Mean to Be a Shia in Lebanon Today?/Hanin Ghaddar/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/December 12/2019
Amid Reports That Iran Is Moving Short-Range Missiles Into Iraq to Hit U.S. Forces, How Can Washington React?/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/December 12/2019
Iran fills the Vacuum Created by Trump’s Withdrawal/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 12/2019

The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 12-13/2019
International community pressures Lebanon to accept new road map
Randa Takieddine/Arab News/December 12/ 2019
International community pressures Lebanon to accept new road map
The deadlock between Lebanon’s political class and the protesters on the streets has continued for almost two months now. Meanwhile, the members of the International Support Group (ISG) for Lebanon gathered in Paris on Wednesday to pressure the Lebanese politicians to urgently form a “credible and efficient government” to take the necessary decisions to tackle the country’s deteriorating economic and social situation.
France had insisted on this gathering, but some countries dragged their feet before agreeing to attend. Some thought it better to wait for the formation of a new government, but French President Emmanuel Macron and Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian insisted on holding the meeting to remind the Lebanese political class of the reforms that were promised but never implemented following the Cedre Conference of April 2018, which attempted to save the Lebanese economy.
Macron, who is reported by his diplomatic team to be closely following the situation in Lebanon, is convinced that the country’s stability and security is important to the region and that an economic collapse is still avoidable. He knows that the region does not need an additional disastrous development. France has also been very close to Lebanon traditionally and historically.
The deadlock in Lebanon — which has seen the population denied its basic needs, from electricity to employment and sanitation — prompted the French to put pressure on the authorities to quickly form a government that will adopt the macroeconomic and social measures needed to get financial help and support from the international community.
Macron is convinced that the country’s stability and security is important to the region. The Paris meeting was attended by senior officials from the foreign ministries of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (France, the US, Britain, Russia and China), plus Italy, Germany, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Lebanon. They drew up a new road map for the next Lebanese government to implement in order for it to respond to the expectations of the Lebanese people and receive financial support from the international community.
The Paris meeting acknowledged that Lebanon is facing a crisis that puts the country at risk of “a chaotic unwinding of its economy and of increased instability.” It considered that there was an urgent need to adopt a credible and comprehensive policy of economic reforms to restore financial stability and address the longstanding structural deficiencies in the model of the Lebanese economy.
The ISG’s final communique stressed the importance of these measures in terms of responding to the aspirations of the Lebanese protesters, who have been on the streets since Oct. 17. The meeting considered that preserving Lebanon’s stability, unity, security, sovereignty and political independence requires the swift formation of a government that will be committed to dissociating the country from regional tensions. Among the measures in the road map for the new government was the demand for a credible 2020 budget, showing a significantly reduced deficit, to be adopted within a few weeks, including social safety nets to preserve the vulnerable population.
The meeting also urged the authorities to tackle corruption. The road map included the adoption of an anti-corruption law and judicial reform. It also reconfirmed the decisions of the Cedre Conference as still being valid.
While the international community was meeting in Paris, Lebanese President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, together with Hezbollah, were taking their time to agree on a new date for the repeatedly postponed parliamentary consultations on naming a new prime minister following Saad Hariri’s resignation. Samir Khatib, a Sunni businessman who was a leading candidate for the role, withdrew after meeting Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdellatif Deryan, who told him he is still backing Hariri.
Hariri seems to be engaged in a power game with Aoun and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, who want him as prime minister but only on their terms, in a mixed government of political and independent personalities. Hariri would accept heading a new government, but with his own conditions, including independent technocratic ministers. Meanwhile, the country is facing a dangerous economic collapse. Central Bank governor Riad Salame is engaged in a struggle with the banks’ shareholders in a bid to get their money back into Lebanon.
Lebanon has received many warnings since September about taking measures to ensure the country’s economic and financial stability, but it was let down by the government. The youth in the streets can no longer wait for irresponsible politicians to kill their future. They have nothing to lose, they say, because nothing was given to them. So the question now is whether or not a new government will adopt the realistic road map put forward by the international community. And when? The protesters dream of a better future, with a new Lebanon away from Hezbollah and its partners.
*Randa Takieddine is a Paris-based Lebanese journalist who headed Al-Hayat’s bureau in France for 30 years. She has covered France’s relations with the Middle East through the terms of four presidents.

Lebanon’s banking sector under immense pressure, warns Pompeo
Christina Farhat/Annahar/December12/2019
Pompeo called attention to the financial repercussions of the unofficial capital controls implemented by the banking sector.
BEIRUT: US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, cautioned of the dangers of the increasing pressure on the banking sector while taking the opportunity to denounce the Iranian backed Hezbollah party. Pompeo reinforced the International Support Group (ISG) sentiment, with the ISG meeting being held today in Paris, that the security of Lebanon is in the best interest of the international community.
“I know the meeting is taking place; we’re working on it. We know that the financial situation is very serious and that the Central Bank is under real pressure,” Pompeo said in his remarks.
Pompeo called attention to the financial repercussions of the unofficial capital controls implemented by the banking sector. However, he rested the burden of banking rights, and long-term governmental reform, on the shoulders of the Lebanese people.
“The Lebanese people don’t have access to their accounts in a way that is full, and sufficient, and adequate, but the responsibility lies with the Lebanese people. The responsibility on how the government will be formed, and shaped, falls to the Lebanese people to demand Lebanese sovereignty, Lebanese prosperity, and Lebanese freedom from outside influence,” Pompeo said.
The 70th United States Secretary of State also denounced Hezbollah, verbally positioning the group as a roadblock to freedom.
“We have a designated terrorist organization, Hezbollah, and I know that the people of Lebanon understand the risk that that presents to their freedom, and to their capacity to deliver for themselves,” Pompeo said.
Speaking on behalf of the United States of America, Pompeo insisted that the State Department’s stance on Hezbollah is not an American proposal, but a proposal by the people of Lebanon. This statement was made weeks after the former Ambassador of the United States of America to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, was blasted for unraveling US interests during his recent congressional testimony, stating that the protests “fortunately coincide with US interests” against Hezbollah.
“This is not an American proposition, this is a proposition of the Lebanese people and we do stand ready to do the things that the world can do to assist the Lebanese people getting their economy righted and their government righted,” Pompeo said.
The tension between the US and Iran is felt in Beirut where the US has intensified its sanctions on Iran-backed Hezbollah. The US took extreme measures, such as sanctioning three top Hezbollah officials earlier this year, that was more geared towards sending a symbolic message than limiting Hezbollah’s influence in practice.
With Hariri’s formally accepted explanation to the West on why Hezbollah is represented in government, the distinction between “military wing” Hezbollah, and “political command” Hezbollah, out the window, the question now shifts to what is in store for Hezbollah in the future.
If a Trump re-election is in the cards, US sanctions against Hezbollah are only expected to grow more unrelenting. “We have taken more actions recently against Hezbollah than in the history of our counterterrorism program,“ Sigal P. Mandelker, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury said at a conference in the United Arab Emirates in September of this year.

Director of Traffic Management Body detained, causes uproar
Chiri Choukeir/Annahar/December 12/2019
After detaining several members of the traffic management body, Judge Aoun invited Salloum as a witness before detaining her as well on charges of bribery, corruption, fraud, and illicit enrichment.
BEIRUT: Mount Lebanon Prosecutor, Judge Ghada Aoun, ordered earlier today the detainment of Director General of the Traffic Management Body Hoda Salloum. After detaining several members of the traffic management body, Judge Aoun invited Salloum as a witness before detaining her as well on charges of bribery, corruption, fraud, and illicit enrichment.
Critics say Aoun failed to follow the mandatory legal procedure by detaining Salloum without notifying the Ministry of Interior. Aoun argued that any suspect of illicit enrichment could be detained without notifying the Interior Ministry.
The case caused an uproar within the Future Movement, with MP Hadi Hobeich making his way to the Justice Palace in Baabda to confront Aoun, accusing her of acting as “militia instead of a judge.”
The MP continued to question the credibility of Aoun, saying that he would not “leave Baabda before the case is handled by the General Prosecutor.”
The reaction of Hobeich was followed by a post on Twitter by MP Nohad Mashnouk, who expressed his outrage at the case.
“Director Hoda Salloum is one of the most precise and decent employees in the Lebanese government,” he said on Twitter. Senior Investigative Judge in Beirut, George Rizk, meanwhile, demanded the case be referred to either the Court of Cassation or Appellate Court where the case would go through the mandatory legal procedure. The Supreme Council of the Judiciary criticized Hobeich’s outburst, labeling his comments as an insult to the judiciary.

The redefining of socioeconomic classes in Lebanon
Dan Azzi/Annahar/December 12/2019
Most Lebanese banks have now curtailed withdrawals to as low as $200 a week, even for clients with millions of dollars in their accounts.
With brutal capital controls in place today, this has necessitated some major behavioral adjustments in Lebanese society. Most Lebanese banks have now curtailed withdrawals to as low as $200 a week, even for clients with millions of dollars in their accounts. I know several people with 8-figure accounts who had to cancel trips to Paris, because their credit card limit for overseas use has been reduced from $25,000 down to $1,000. In the good old days (only a few months ago) that would have been their one day spending for a hotel stay at George Cinque, lunch at Fouquet, and dinner a Le Cinq, not including a shopping spree at Chanel.
$1,000 would now match the credit limit of this paper millionaire’s driver or bodyguard. What’s even more shocking for these paper millionaires isn’t the drastic reduction in their standard of living, but the fact that he now has to grovel in front of a low-level teller at his bank, whose name he can’t remember, even though he served him coffee for the last 10 years, while ushering him ahead of the line outside, straight into the branch manager’s office. Today, this guy has to take a number from a machine, wait in line for a couple of hours, to end up taking the same amount of cash as all the proletariat that he hardly ever interacted with except when they parked his car or waited his table at Balthus in downtown.
In the past, this deca-millionaire would have multiple banks competing for this business, offering him 1 or 2% extra in interest to move his account, and then his existing bank would increase his rates at the slightest whiff of dissatisfaction.
Today, life has changed drastically. When this guy threatens to move his cash to another bank – moving it overseas is out of the question – the low-ranking bank teller (the branch manager is too busy … or hiding, these days), would politely tell him to go ahead, because that’s one less customer screaming “I WANT MY MONEY.” Of course, the prospective receiving bank no longer wants his Monopoly Money either, because they have the reverse problem – that’s one more customer screaming at the new bank. The tragedy is when one of those clients is mislead into taking a so-called bankers check and tries to deposit it overseas in Dubai or Zurich, and after a few weeks of his money floating in cyberspace, the check gets rejected with no reason supplied. He then goes back to his bank in all seriousness to complain, and his relationship manager at the bank puts on this surprised look (like it never happened before), and says, “That must be a problem at your bank. We did our duty.” So the guy resigns himself to his fate and re-deposits his semi-worthless check back at the same bank. So now, Paper Millionaire has to go back to groveling with his banker, “Please give me $600 extra this week because I need diesel to heat my home,” to which the banker replies, “You live in Antelias, it’s not that cold, you don’t need to buy diesel. Come back next month and we’ll consider your request.”
So if what we thought of before as the richest and most powerful 1% are now no longer the 1%, who’s winning in this new game in town? Who’s the new 1%?
Clearly, the depositors with wasta, able to withdraw much more than average or send money overseas – those connected to the people in power – no matter what the size of their account. Also, the 1% who are subscribers to An-Nahar English, and read the multiple warnings in our articles, avoided the Ponzi Scheme. Thus, they never believed the fantasies about a magically resilient and omnipotent island – the Banking Sector – prospering happily, with their depositors, in the midst of a collapsing Lebanese economy. Of course, some of these paper millionaires found the $1 subscription fee too expensive and decided not to subscribe – they found out soon enough that it was the second worst financial decision of their life.
There’s another group who are now more powerful than their former bosses. Anyone who is armed, dangerous, and connected can threaten his way into getting his money, similarly to how during the Civil War, a lowly thug ruled your whole neighborhood.
In some sense, these unofficial capital controls are the biggest act of egalitarianism since the Bolshevik Revolution of 1914, but like the Soviet Union, the 1% became not the ones with money, but the ones connected to the Party. In our case, the new 1% are the ones connected to the Parties who can twist arms and allow you to take your money out, when no one else can.
Welcome to the New Lebanese Paradigm.

What Does it Mean to Be a Shia in Lebanon Today?
Hanin Ghaddar/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/December 12/2019
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81408/%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d9%8a%d8%b9%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d8%aa%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b4%d9%8a%d8%b9%d9%8a%d9%8b%d8%a7-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8/
Among the Shia in Lebanon, two major shifts are taking place within the collective perception of the community. One, Lebanese Shia identity is moving from a sectarian identity to a national one, caused by the costs endured by the Shia community over the past decade. And two, there is a widening departure from the resistance narrative, which is increasingly seen as a narrative of war and Islamic indoctrination.
The ideas of resistance and the antagonism towards Israel are still deep-seated facets of Lebanese Shia identity. Yet growing feelings of resentment towards war and Hezbollah’s efforts to continue militarizing the community are proving to be stronger. Today, the reality of a militarized and war-thirsty identity is being challenged by the desire of members of the community for better living standards, financial stability, and security. In this sense, national identity—and an eagerness to be part of the Lebanese people as a whole—is becoming more significant than the sectarian identities that have long been seen as dominating Lebanese politics.
These shifts have been taking place over a number of years, but such changes are very complex, gradual, and slow. They rise and fade depending on the political and economic circumstances, and while the course of change is steady, it is still uneasy for the Shia as a communal whole to express their opinions during a process that hasn’t yet been completed or realized.
Surveying the Shia
Today—more than any time in the modern history of the Lebanon—it has become evident that a cohesive and monolithic Shia community does not exist. Rather, the constitutive elements of the community have been going through successive waves of identity shifts and internal conflicts that give the community multiple layers of identity, often overlapping within an individual. This makes categorizing this community a complicated matter.
What is clear is that Shia individuals expressing discontent and disagreement with Hezbollah by either joining the protests in Lebanon, disseminating a WhatsApp recording against Hezbollah, or even stealing a quick moment on TV to complain are no longer unusual occurrences. Moreover, these events are illustrative of a deeper hidden reality that is managing to escape through the cracks of the very same layers that had previously masked the visibility of its development.
Moreover, these nascent moments of protest complicate the still supportive façade Shia present to outsiders. A recent poll published by Fikra Forum shows that among Lebanon’s Shia population today, 75% of respondents say they hold a “very positive” attitude toward Hezbollah—which is down only slightly from 83% in late 2017 and 77% in late 2018.
Although numbers do not lie, they can mask shifting realities on the ground that are difficult to capture in polling data. Unpacking the layers of Shia identity requires much more than blunt questions from outsiders about their opinion on Hezbollah and Iran. Identifying the real attitudes of Shia involves understanding these layers and looking into issues beyond Hezbollah and Iran, such as war and peace in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s domestic allies, and the significance of the Shia center of Najaf in Iraq—where Ayatollah Sistani presents a notable challenge to the Iranian model of Shia community through wilayet e-faqih.
It also requires unpacking what these institutions represent to Lebanese Shia. Hezbollah could mean resistance for some; for others, it could mean protection. Iran, for some, can mean empowerment; while for others, it could mean financial support. Many Shia still see Hezbollah as a paternal figure and feel an obligation or a duty to protect the group from outsiders. However, this doesn’t mean that Hezbollah is a father figure these Shia look up to internally.
Given these factors, attempting to label this community often restrains us from reading between the lines. And most importantly, this classification could also serve Hezbollah—and other sectarian leaders—who prefer to hide the nuances, the layers of identity, and the reality that lies in-between in favor of one monolithic entity. Hezbollah’s main narrative is that it represents the majority of the Shia in Lebanon, despite knowing very well that this claim is inaccurate. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have cracked down on Shia cities for the past two months of protests with such violence.
The Layers of a Shia
From Musa Al-Sadr’s Amal movement to the PLO domination of the south of Lebanon until 1982, all through the civil war and the leftist movements that relied on Shia for its wars, and recently the Iranian hegemony of the Shia agency and identity, many Shia have developed multiple identities and layers in response to these different forces. A Shia could be pro-Palestine and anti-Palestine, pro-resistance and anti-resistance, and pro-Lebanese and anti-Lebanese, all at the same time. These concealed differences are on their way out to the surface, but have existed for a long time.
That also applies to members of the community who are Hezbollah’s supporters. Every Hezbollah supporter or fighter I have talked to during my adult life has also described navigating these layers. They are tired of wars and ideologies, yet they are deeply rooted in an identity that glorifies bygone victories. They are torn between a lifeless leftist idea of liberation—based on the national resistance movement that predated Hezbollah—and an ideological resistance that Hezbollah enforced through its meticulous cultural appropriation and services to a community that has suffered from deprivation for decades.
A Shia can be pro-Palestine—as a cause—but also look down on the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon as a burden and a lesser community in terms of rights and freedoms. A Shia can want Hezbollah to return to its original mandate of resistance, and can be critical of Hezbollah for abandoning it, yet he or she can also be scared of resistance, because resistance means another war. A Shia can want to fight injustice while recognizing that Hezbollah’s allies are the most corrupt political figures in Lebanon.
Many Shia are frustrated with Hezbollah’s wars in the region, its isolation of the community, and with its increased corruption and failures. However, they are also afraid to lose the father-figure that Hezbollah represents and be exposed to sectarian discrimination, and further isolation, in the process. Not all Shia believe in absolute wilayat e-faqih ideology. Many—mainly those who are descended from the leftist and progressive parties—became Hezbollah supporters only because of Hezbollah’s adoption of the resistance narrative rather than through any religious appeal.
Fears and Dilemmas
The taboos preventing the overt expressions of these doubts are strong, but the fear is even stronger. Among the Shia community, how can one freely or clearly express his or her ideas and desires—even anonymously—when Hezbollah intelligence have knocked on Shia protesters’ doors every day in the past few weeks to inquire about their daily whereabouts and check their personal cellphones? Shia know that if one happens to be spotted in one of the protests squares, the interrogations start and will never end. Entire families are harassed, and many have been arrested.
In contrast to the Iraqi Shia, who have an internal religious establishment that is actually tacitly supporting the country’s protests, the Lebanese Shia do not have a Najaf to turn to. They have no place to go if the protests fail and each sect goes back to its leader. This pushes the Lebanese Shia into a real dilemma: many are trapped between their desire to become Lebanese citizens and their fear of becoming exposed without protection were they to move away from the traditional sectarian model.
The Shia who live in fear or humiliation might not be aware of their own needs and longings. They might express their dilemmas in ways that others might misread or overlook. Therefore, what really matters is not what they think of Iran or Hezbollah. What matters is the context: of how and when they take to the streets, what flag they choose to raise, and, most importantly, if they manage to defy Hezbollah’s cultural and social—rather than political—rules and red lines.
What is important to recognize is that people danced in Nabatiyeh, and that women took off their veils in the middle of the square in Baalbek. It is not strange that Hezbollah felt threatened enough by these actions to crack down on Shia protesters. In Lebanon, the cultural and social has always been the pathway to the political—and this has especially been the case within the Shia community. This is why Hezbollah felt the threat, and this is why the protesters’ defiance is significant.
Given all these factors, it is probably unfair to ask the question of who is a Lebanese Shia today. But this very same question, with all its biases and complications, is more necessary now more than ever. The answers to this question need to address all the layers, the fears, and the unspoken truths lying behind the visible among the Lebanese Shia community.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/what-does-it-mean-to-be-a-shia-in-lebanon-today

Amid Reports That Iran Is Moving Short-Range Missiles Into Iraq to Hit U.S. Forces, How Can Washington React?
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/December 12/2019
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
Hassan Hassan | Director of Non-State Actors Program at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, D.C., and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror (Regan Arts, New York, 2015)
Like it or not, President Donald Trump’s policy against Iran is working as intended. The “Maximum Pressure” campaign is causing the regime to become nervous and lash out. The unprecedented and uncharacteristic attack on Saudi oil facilities last September, attributed to Iran, was symptomatic of its growing anxiety.
With reports that Iran is moving short-range missiles into Iraq to hit U.S. forces, Washington’s response is simply to stay the course, tighten the economic screws, and keep up the pressure against the Islamic Republic. Despite warnings of a U.S.-Iran confrontation due to heightened tension, neither side wants war. But Iran also understands that Trump is determined to destabilize its regime.
Increased pressure will further strain Tehran’s ability to manage erupting crises in countries where only a year ago it saw significant victories—in Syria against the anti-government rebels, in Iraq against the Islamic State, and in Lebanon through a Hezbollah-friendly government. The continued American presence in Syria, the persistence of protests in Lebanon and Iraq, and the worsening sanctions are constraining the regime.
Under these circumstances, Tehran’s current policy seems to be focused on preventing Washington from acting militarily against it and on waiting Trump out. To hold the line until then, Iran is trying to show strength. Moving the missiles and attacking the Saudi oil facilities are part of that effort. There is no need for the United States to lash out. It just needs to press on.
Loulouwa Al Rachid | Beirut-based analyst of Iraq, former scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut
The late French theoretician of international relations, Raymond Aron, once defined the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in this way: “Peace impossible, war unlikely.” This formula applies perfectly to U.S.-Iran relations. Both countries have a great deal to lose by entering into a war or engaging in escalation beyond unclaimed attacks on oil tankers and facilities, Iran’s deployment of short-range missiles outside its borders, an increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East, and cyberwarfare.
For both countries to go on the offensive in Iraq, a fragile country where the crisis over government legitimacy runs the risk of sparking another civil war, would have a devastating impact not only on Iraq but also on the United States’ and Iran’s respective strategic interests in the region. Washington cannot afford a further deterioration in its credibility by allowing the breakup of a country where it imposed costly regime change in 2003, nor can Iran put at risk the political, economic, and military influence it gained there since that time. Their shared condominium over Iraq, which allowed among other things the successful war on terror, will likely prevail, all the more so given the reluctance of Iraqi politicians to be drawn into a proxy war between Washington and Tehran.
Michael Knights | Senior fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states
The first action—already taken last May by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo—is to warn Baghdad explicitly that any effective attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq will be met by vigorous self-defense and retaliatory actions inside Iraq as well as elsewhere. This message must be continually reinforced by senior U.S. government officials. As mobile launch platforms may relocate or be collocated with civilians, the United States needs to maintain updated sets of pre-vetted “response option” targets that can be struck at a time and place of its choosing. The United States should wait, if need be, for militia headquarters to re-fill, not just strike empty buildings as quickly as possible. Any target in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, or elsewhere should be considered fair game.
Joel Wing | Analyst of Iraqi affairs at the Musings on Iraq blog
The latest news that Iran is moving missiles into Iraq is actually old as these types of stories have come out since 2015, when Tehran began giving short range missiles to its allies in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during the war against the Islamic State. In fact, in July and August 2019 Israel carried out a series of airstrikes against PMF bases in part to target these armaments.
There is little the United States can do about this development. First, its influence has dramatically decreased in Baghdad. The U.S. presence is constantly attacked by Iraqi politicians and resigned prime minister ‘Adil ‘Abdul Mahdi has done nothing about Iran’s moves. Second, despite Washington’s “Maximum Pressure” policy against Iran, President Donald Trump is not really interested in Iran, and especially not Iraq. That means the U.S. government is severely limited in what it can do because it is cannot get the backing of the president. Just look at what’s happening in Syria or Trump’s offer of engaging in talks without preconditions with Iran to see the problems policymakers are having with the president.

Iran fills the Vacuum Created by Trump’s Withdrawal

Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 12/2019
President Trump has hastened the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, and is actively seeking to reduce America’s military presence elsewhere in the region, with troop withdrawals under active consideration in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Russia is always on standby to fill power voids. That is how it happened that Russian troops swept in when the US left northern Syria. To sum up that still unfolding story: nobody will remember it as our finest hour…. There are some deeply malign forces at work in the broader Middle East… disengagement is just another term for leaving all the power to them.” – Richard Cheney, Former US Vice President,” Arab Strategy Forum, Dubai.
It is a measure of the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran that former US President Barack Obama helped to negotiate in 2015 that Tehran used the brief easing of tensions with Washington to strengthen and consolidate its military presence in Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
There are now serious concerns that Mr Trump’s desire to reduce America’s military presence in the Middle East will only encourage Iran to intensify its own activity, thereby increasing the threat to Israel and pro-Western Arab states.
The problem for small states such as Lebanon, though, is that they are no match for a regional superpower like Iran. And so long as the mullahs have the resources and weaponry to maintain their aggressive presence in the region, there is very little that small states like Lebanon can do to stop them.
President Donald Trump has made no secret of his dislike of America’s long-standing military involvement in the Middle East, which dates back decades, and which he claims has cost the American taxpayer a mind-blowing $8 trillion. Pictured: President Trump speaks about his decision to pull U.S troops out of northeastern Syria, as Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Army Gen. Mark Milley, looks on, October 7, 2019. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
The threat by a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps this week “to flatten Tel Aviv” from Iranian-controlled bases in southern Lebanon provides arguably the most graphic example of the deepening dangers the region faces as a result of the Trump administration’s decision to scale down its military presence.
With next year’s presidential election contest now very much the primary focus of President Donald J. Trump’s attention, many of America’s long-standing allies in the Middle East are becoming increasingly concerned at the president’s desire to improve his electoral prospects by scaling down America’s military footprint.
Mr Trump has made no secret of his dislike of America’s long-standing military involvement in the Middle East, which dates back decades, and which Mr Trump claims has cost the American taxpayer a mind-blowing $8 trillion. His attitude towards the region was best summed up by the remark he made in October following his unilateral decision to withdraw US forces from northern Syria, when he said: “Let someone else fight over this long bloodstained sand.”
To this end, Mr Trump has hastened the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, and is actively seeking to reduce America’s military presence elsewhere in the region, with troop withdrawals under active consideration in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
Yet, as former US Vice President Dick Cheney warned earlier this week, the US withdrawal of troops from key areas of the Middle East is causing deep alarm among some of America’s allies.
Speaking at a Gulf security forum earlier this week, Mr Cheney, 78, who served as Vice President in the Bush administration from 2001-09, warned that the US was in danger of departing from the “sound traditions” of American foreign policy, thereby playing into the hands of hostile states such as like Russia, Syria and Iran.
“Russia is always on standby to fill power voids,” Mr Cheney said in a speech to the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai. “That is how it happened that Russian troops swept in when the US left northern Syria. To sum up that still unfolding story: nobody will remember it as our finest hour,” he said of Mr Trump’s withdrawal decision.
Mr Cheney also had some tough words for Iran: “There are some deeply malign forces at work in the broader Middle East… disengagement is just another term for leaving all the power to them.”
As if to vindicate the veracity of Mr Cheney’s comments, Morteza Ghorbani, a senior advisor with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, issued a direct threat against Israel, warning the Jewish state that, “If Israel makes a mistake, even the smallest one, against Iran, we will flatten Tel Aviv into dirt from Lebanon.”
It is a measure of the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran that former US President Barack Obama helped to negotiate in 2015 that Tehran used the brief easing of tensions with Washington to strengthen and consolidate its military presence in Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.
Israeli intelligence officials estimate that Hezbollah, Iran’s Shia militia in southern Lebanon, is now equipped with tens of thousands of Iranian-made medium-range missiles that can hit targets deep within Israel. Similar stockpiles are being built up in Syria, although the Israel Air Force has carried out a number of air raids aimed as disrupting Iran’s attempts to build a new network of military bases along the Syrian border.
There are now serious concerns that Mr Trump’s desire to reduce America’s military presence in the Middle East will only encourage Iran to intensify its own activity, thereby increasing the threat to Israel and pro-Western Arab states.
The only resistance Iran is likely to encounter as it seeks to expand its hegemony in the region is from Arab governments that object to Iran using their countries in order to pursue its own goals.
Lebanon is a case in point: senior government officials have reacted angrily to Iranian threats to renew hostilities with Israel.
During the last confrontation involving Israel and Lebanon in 2006, more than 1,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed, as well as 121 Israeli soldiers and 46 civilians in Israel.
Lebanese ministers have no desire to repeat the experience, and the attitude of many in Lebanon was summed up by caretaker Lebanese defence minister Elia Bou Saab, who said Iran’s latest threats against Israel were “unfortunate and unacceptable and infringed on the sovereignty of Lebanon.”
The problem for small states such as Lebanon, though, is that they are no match for a regional superpower like Iran. And so long as the mullahs have the resources and weaponry to maintain their aggressive presence in the region, there is very little that small states like Lebanon can do to stop them.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.