A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For December 08- 09/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 53th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
December 09/2019
Tites For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 08-09/2019
Hezbollah Is Stubbornly Insisting To Replicate The Puppet & Corrupted Resigned Lebanese Cabinet
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude: The country is ruled by a group with weapons
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude: Country Ruled by Armed Group and Person You All Know
Mufti Tells Khatib There’s Sunni Consensus on Naming Hariri
Main Lebanon PM candidate withdraws from consideration
Lebanon’s Khatib sees consensus on Hariri as prime minister again
Parliamentary Consultations on New PM Postponed to December 16
Lebanese Women March in Beirut against Sexual Harassment
Abdallah Chatila, Lebanese-Born, Donor of Hitler Items Welcomed in Israel
Man Sets Himself Alight at Riad al-Solh Protest
Tripoli’s Civil Movement declares general strike, blocking of roads tomorrow
Taymour Jumblatt announces Democratic Gathering’s boycott of tomorrow’s parliamentary consultations
Sidon’s Elia Square turns into a meeting place to help the needy
Rahi officiates over Mass service in Bkirki
Bishop Alwan: The Church does not protect anyone
Lebanon’s Hariri re-emerges as PM candidate as Khatib withdraws
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 08-09/2019
Hezbollah Is Stubbornly Insisting To Replicate The Puppet & Corrupted Resigned Lebanese Cabinet
/حزب الله مصر على استنساخ الحكومة التبعية والإفساد المستقيلة
Elias Bejjani/December 08/2019
The Iranian armed Lebanese terrorist proxy, “The Party Of God”, Hezbollah, is the actual ruler of Lebanon, and it fully controls the country’s decision making process, as well as all the officials including the president, House Speaker and the cabinet.
At the present time, and as a result of an Iranian recent orchestrated parliamentary elections, and an electoral non-constitutional law that was tailored and imposed by intimation and force, Hezbollah enjoys a majority in both the parliament and the Cabinet.
The mass public peaceful Lebanese revolution that has been going on for the past 52 days has forced the cabinet to resign.
But the Occupier, Hezbollah, and its Iranian masters, are still defiant and insist to maintain the pre revolution status quo.
Since the Cabinet’s resignation, Hezbollah has been stubbornly refusing to respond to any of the revolution’s just demands, and is insisting to maintain its irony Iranian grip on the country.
Hezbollah’s leadership in both Beirut and Tehran are evilly challenging the Lebanese peaceful revolution, and through terrorism and intimidation are adamant to replicate the corrupted-puppet resigned government in a bid to maintain their occupational status.
Apparently Hezbollah’s leadership has solely formed a new puppet government that is a mere replicate of the resigned one. But it is not yet official announced.
All that is left before its official announcement is a Lebanese Muslim Sunni politician that is willing to head it, as a facade cover no more no less.
Three Muslim Sunnis are competing for the post, Caretaker PM, Saad Al Hariri, Beirut MP Fouad Makhzoumi, and the businessman Samir Al Khatieb.
The PM’s name will be known tomorrow (Monday) through the folkloric president’s consultations with the 128 Members of the Lebanese Parliament.
But the real outcome is not clear due to the fact that many Lebanese well informed analysts strongly believe that the covert-Hariri Bassil business partnership is still very sold with the Hezbollah’s blessings which means that Hariri is still the one that Aoun, Bassil, Hezbollah and Berri prefer. They know him very well because he has been serving their interests, as well the Iranian agenda.
It is worth mentioning that 74 MP’s are all in Hezbollah’s leadership pocket and under its tip, and accordingly they will blindly vote in accordance to its orders “Faraman”.
In summary Hezbollah has belligerently refused to respond to all the demands of the revolution, and definitely will by force try to hold on to the ongoing status of its occupation.
Meanwhile the mass peaceful revolution is expected to go on in spite of all the oppression that its activists are facing, while all kinds of economical hardships that the country is facing are getting worse.
In conclusion, Lebanon needs a flood of divine intervention, and the floods of water on the roads to wash the ungodly leaders out.
Our Prays go to the oppressed and occupied Lebanon that Almighty God shall always guard, protect and safeguard.
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude: The country is ruled by a group with weapons
NNA/December 08/2019
Beirut’s Greek Orthodox Metropolitan Archbishop Elias Aoudeh presided over a memorial Mass service at St. George’s Cathedral in downtown Beirut this morning, marking the fourteenth commemoration of the martyrdom of Gibran Tueni and his two companions.
In his homily, Aoudeh paid tribute to the memory of Martyr Tueini, recalling the true essence of his words that still reflect on our present times. “To believe that the true word does not die, but resonates stronger, listen to what Gibran said many years ago, as if to describe the present situation in our beloved country, which was distorted by the hand of corruption, betrayal and repression,” he said.
“What remains of the truth, service, humility, deliberation, transparency, justice, openness, democracy and freedom, what is left of it in our country?” questioned Aoudeh, criticizing the current rulers for adopting the ways of “totalitarian regimes with their one-party system.”
“How long are we to continue paying the price for internal and external polarizations? How long are we to continue wasting opportunities? How long will the people remain captive to the policy of an extremist party?” Aoudeh went on to question. “This country is ruled by a person you all know and by a group that governs us with arms!” he exclaimed. The Archbishop considered that for a citizen’s identity to be preserved, the country must be preserved. “Today, unfortunately, Lebanon pays the price of the mistakes committed by a corrupt and bankrupt political class,” he said, adding, “Had it not been for the people who held on to their identity, Lebanon would have been lost a long time ago.”
“The Lebanese people have demonstrated their ability to preserve the country and identity after the many struggles it has gone through…We must learn to belong to the homeland and a new political class must be created,” he emphasized.
Bishop Aoudeh hailed the Lebanese youth’s uprising under the country’s national flag, and slogans of achieving social justice, anti-corruption, accountability, liberation of the judiciary from political interference, and forming a min-government of specialists with integrity and competence. “Are these mere fictitious demands, or are they the simplest things required to build a state?” he wondered. “The Lebanese people take pride in being a peaceful people, whose weapons are unity, faith, honesty and truth, especially their steadfastness in the face of conspiracies and attempts to sow discord and despair in souls,” the Bishop maintained. “Birth, my dear ones, is preceded by a painful labor, and the birth of a new Lebanon is approaching,” he said. “It is a question of will, above all, the will to sacrifice, the will to abandon selfishness and personal interests, the will to open up to the other and extend the hand of dialogue and the determination to reach for what unites rather than highlight the differences,” stressed Aoudeh. “Our country is in conflict and is waiting for a heroic act to save it,” he underscored.
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude: Country Ruled by Armed Group and Person You All Know
Naharnet/December 08/2019
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude on Sunday decried that Lebanon is being ruled by one “person” and an “armed group.” “Today, this country is being ruled by a person you all know, and no one is saying a word, and it is being ruled by a group hiding behind arms,” Aude said in a sermon marking the 14th anniversary of the assassination of the journalist Gebran Tueni. “What has scared officials and is still scaring them is the voice of right and truth, the voice of the hungry and suffering people, the voice of everyone who cherishes the country,” Aude added.
“The ruling authority has been sentenced to death while the people and their country will only find resurrection and victory. The birth of a new Lebanon is nearing,” the metropolitan went on to say. Commenting on the protests that have been sweeping the country since October 17, Aude said the Lebanese who are on the streets are “sacrificing a lot for the sake of a future whose fathers and grandfathers had waited but did not get.”
Mufti Tells Khatib There’s Sunni Consensus on Naming Hariri
Naharnet/December 08/2019
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan on Sunday told premiership candidate Samir Khatib that there is Sunni “consensus” on naming caretaker PM Saad Hariri to lead the new government. The Mufti is “among the supporters of PM Saad Hariri, who is exerting efforts to advance Lebanon, and he supports his Arab and international role in this regard,” Khatib said in a statement from Dar al-Fatwa after meeting Daryan. “I learned from His Eminence that as a result of the meetings, consultations and contacts with the sons of the (Sunni) Muslim community, consensus has been reached on naming PM Saad Hariri to lead the new government,” Khatib added. “Accordingly, I will head to the Center House to meet with PM Saad Hariri and inform him of this, because he was the one who named me to form a new government, and I thank him for his precious confidence,” Khatib went on to say. As Khatib’s meeting with Hariri got underway later in the day, MTV reported that Hariri will meet with the political aides of Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in “the coming hours.” Speaking after his meeting with Hariri, Khatib said: “When my name was mentioned to be appointed Prime minister-designate, I listened to the wishes of many friends and political leaders. This is an occasion to extend my thanks to President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and the leaders who gave me their trust.” “It was natural to conduct a series of contacts with the concerned political parties. These contacts took place over a period of two weeks during which I was subjected to an unfair campaign by some biased people,” he lamented. He added: “After my latest meeting today with Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan, I came to meet with Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had named me and supported me. I informed him of the position of the Mufti, which I announced from Dar al-Fatwa.” Khatib concluded: “Thus, I apologize with a very clear conscience for not being able to continue the journey to which I have been nominated, asking God Almighty to protect Lebanon from all evil and to enlighten the consciences and minds of the Lebanese and political leaders to overcome the crisis and reach the shore of safety. I renew my thanks to Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who overwhelmed me with his affection and trust, and who will remain for me a role model in loyalty, patriotism and wise leadership.”The developments come on the eve of binding parliamentary consultations to pick a new premier. The main political parties, including Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal Movement, had reached consensus on Khatib’s nomination in recent days. Hariri stepped down on October 29, bowing to pressure from unprecedented street protests. The protest movement that has swept the country since October 17 has demanded the appointment of an independent technocrat government and an overhaul of the entire political system.
Main Lebanon PM candidate withdraws from consideration
Associated Press/December 08/2019
Khatib, a prominent contractor, announced his decision after meeting with Hariri. Hariri had said he backed Khatib for the post.
BEIRUT: A possible candidate for prime minister of Lebanon said Sunday he is withdrawing from consideration for the post, prolonging the country’s political crisis. Samir Khatib’s announcement came hours before he was expected to be named as the official candidate for the post following consultations between the president and major parliamentary blocs. Khatib’s statement also comes shortly after his visit to the country’s top Sunni religious authority, who told him the community supports resigned former prime minister Saad Hariri for the job. Hariri resigned Oct. 29 amid nationwide protests in which demonstrators accused the political elite of corruption and mismanagement. The protesters had rejected Khatib as a candidate. At the time, Hariri said he reached a “dead end” with his political rivals over forming an emergency government to deal with the country’s crumbling economy. Lebanon’s national unity government was headed by Hariri, a Sunni Muslim backed by the West, but was dominated by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group and its allies, including the party of President Michel Aoun. Khatib, a prominent contractor, announced his decision after meeting with Hariri. Hariri had said he backed Khatib for the post. Under Lebanon’s sectarian-based political system, the prime minister comes from the Sunni Muslim community, while the president is chosen from the Maronite Christian community. The parliament speaker is chosen from the ranks of Shiite Muslims.
Lebanon’s Khatib sees consensus on Hariri as prime minister again
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 8 December 2019
Lebanese businessman Samir Khatib arrived on Sunday to Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s residence in Beirut to inform him of his withdrawal for candidacy, according to an Al Arabiya correspondent. Khatib said on Sunday there was a consensus for nominating Saad Hariri as prime minister again to form a new government, speaking after a meeting with Lebanon’s top Sunni Muslim religious leader Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian. The statement spelt the end of Khatib’s candidacy for the post which is reserved for a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system.
Hariri, now running a caretaker government, quit as prime minister on October 29, prompted by protests against the ruling elite. “Positions come and go, but the dignity and safety of the country is more important,” Hariri said at the time. Consensus emerged last week around Khatib as the new premier, with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the leading Shia Muslim in the state, saying he would nominate Khatib. “I was originally going to nominate Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri or the person he backs to form the government, and given that he supports Engineer Samir Khatib, I will nominate … Samir Khatib,” Berri told al-Joumhouria newspaper. Hariri was first elected to Lebanon’s Parliament in a 2005 landslide victory, following the assassination of his father, then-prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, in a Beirut car bombing. Following in his father’s footsteps, Hariri headed the Future Movement party and was named prime minister in June 2009. He exited the position when his unity government collapsed in 2011, but was named prime minister again in December 2016. The Saudi-born Lebanese businessman is a telecom mogul, whose net worth in 2013 was estimated at $1.9 billion by Forbes.- With Reuters
Parliamentary Consultations on New PM Postponed to December 16
Naharnet/December 08/2019
The Presidency on Sunday postponed the binding parliamentary consultations for naming a new PM from Monday, Dec. 9 to Monday, Dec. 16, after Dar al-Fatwa told the candidate Samir Khatib that there is Sunni consensus on re-nominating Saad Hariri for the post. “In light of the developments, at the desire and request of most parliamentary blocs, and to allow for further consultations and contacts, President (Michel) Aoun has decided to postpone the binding parliamentary consultations previously scheduled for tomorrow to Monday, December 16,” the Presidency said in a statement. Aoun had held phone talks with Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker PM Hariri after Khatib announced the withdrawal of his nomination earlier in the day. The main political parties, including Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal Movement, had reached consensus on Khatib’s nomination in recent days. Hariri stepped down on October 29, bowing to pressure from unprecedented street protests. The protest movement that has swept the country since October 17 has demanded the appointment of an independent technocrat government and an overhaul of the entire political system.
Lebanese Women March in Beirut against Sexual Harassment
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 08/2019
Scores of women marched through the streets of Beirut on Saturday to protest sexual harassment and bullying and demanding rights including the passing of citizenship to children of Lebanese women married to foreigners. The march started outside the American University of Beirut, west of the capital, and ended in a downtown square that has been witnessing daily protests for more than seven weeks. Nationwide demonstrations in Lebanon broke out Oct. 17 against proposed taxes on WhatsApp calls turned into a condemnation of the country’s political elite, who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war. The government resigned in late October, meeting a key demand of the protesters. “We want to send a message against sexual harassment. They say that the revolution is a woman, therefore, if there is a revolution, women must be part of it,” said protester Berna Dao. “Women are being raped, their right is being usurped, and they are not able to pass their citizenship.”Activists have been campaigning for years so that parliament drafts a law that allows Lebanese women married to foreigners pass their citizenship to their husbands and children. Earlier this year, Raya al-Hassan became the first woman in the Arab world to take the post of interior minister. The outgoing Cabinet has four women ministers, the highest in the country in decades.
Abdallah Chatila, Lebanese-Born, Donor of Hitler Items Welcomed in Israel
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 08/2019
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Sunday hosted a Lebanese-born Swiss real estate mogul who purchased Nazi memorabilia at a German auction and is donating the items to Israel. Rivlin called Abdallah Chatila’s gesture an “act of grace.”Chatila, a Lebanese Christian who has lived in Switzerland for decades, paid some 600,000 euros ($660,000) for the items at the Munich auction last month, intending to destroy them after reading of Jewish groups’ objections to the sale. Shortly before the auction, however, he decided it would be better to donate them to a Jewish organization. Among the items he bought were Adolf Hitler’s top hat, a silver-plated edition of Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” and a typewriter used by the dictator’s secretary. The items are to be donated to Israel’s Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial. Chatila said he initially bought the items for personal reasons. “He is the personification of evil — evil for everyone, not evil for the Jews, evil for the Christians, evil for humanity,” he said. “And that’s why it was important for me to buy those artifacts.”But Chatila decided that he “had no right to decide” what to do with these artifacts, so he reached out to Keren Hayesod-United Israel Appeal, a nonprofit fundraising body that assists Israeli and Jewish causes. It then decided to pass the items on to Yad Vashem because of its existing collection of Nazi artifacts. “Usually Yad Vashem doesn’t support trade. We do not believe in trade of artifacts that come from the Nazi party or other parts,” said Avner Shalev, chairman of Yad Vashem. “We like that it should be in the hands of museums or public collectors and not in private hands.”
At a press conference held at Rivlin’s residence, Chatila said his donation has been criticized by some in his homeland. Israel and Lebanon have never signed a peace agreement, and relations remain hostile. “I got a few messages saying that I was a traitor, saying that I helped the enemy. And also some messages of people warning me not to go back to Lebanon,” he said. “It’s easy for me as I don’t go to Lebanon. I don’t have a problem with it.” But Chatila said his parents still travel to Lebanon, making the backlash difficult for his family. Rivlin thanked Chatila for his act and donation “of great importance at this time” when Holocaust denial and neo-Nazism are on the rise. He also noted that the artifacts would help preserve the Holocaust legacy for future generations who will not be able to meet or hear from the dwindling population of aging survivors. “What you did was seemingly so simple, but this act of grace shows the whole world how to fight the glorification of hatred and incitement against other people. It was a truly human act,” Rivlin said. The items are still at the German auction house, and it was not immediately known when they would be transferred to Yad Vashem.
Chatila was born in Beirut into a family of Christian jewelers and moved to Switzerland at the age of two. Now among Switzerland’s richest 300 people, he supports charities and causes, including many relating to Lebanon and Syrian refugees. Rabbi Mehachem Margolin, head of the European Jewish Association, said Chatila’s surprise act had raised attention to such auctions. He said it was a powerful statement against racism and xenophobia, especially coming from a non-Jew of Lebanese origin. “There is no question that a message that comes from you is 10 times, or 100 times stronger than a message that comes from us,” Margolin told Chatila.
Man Sets Himself Alight at Riad al-Solh Protest
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 08/2019
A man in Lebanon tried to self-immolate during a protest in Beirut on Saturday, the Lebanese Red Cross said, before protesters extinguished the flames. Protesters in Riad al-Solh Square smothered the flames with jackets and blankets, an AFP photographer said. The man, who did not lose consciousness, was evacuated in a Red Cross ambulance. “A man set fire to himself, a Lebanese Red Cross team intervened,” the organization wrote on Twitter. The official NNA news agency reported that a man in his forties had doused himself in petrol before setting himself alight. Media reports said he did not have money to buy medicine. Lebanon is going through a dire economic and financial crisis amid political paralysis and an ongoing protest movement. On Saturday, dozens gathered in the central Riad al-Solh Square for another demonstration against the country’s ruling elite. Protests began on October 17, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese demanding an end to corruption and incompetent leadership. Lebanon’s financial situation, already precarious before the protests, has deteriorated markedly since. In recent weeks, thousands of people have lost their jobs or had their salaries slashed.
Several cases of suicide have been reported in recent days, with financial difficulties believed to be a motivating factor. In February, a Lebanese man died from severe burns after setting himself on fire at his daughter’s school over a fee dispute with the management. The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see the proportion of people living in poverty climb from a third to half the population. Unemployment, already above 30 per cent for young people, would also increase, it has said. Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri asked Arab and Western allies for financial help on Friday.
An $11 billion (10 billion euro) aid package pledged at a conference dubbed CEDRE in Paris in April 2018 has not been unlocked by donors for lack of reform.
Tripoli’s Civil Movement declares general strike, blocking of roads tomorrow
NNA/December 08/2019
Tripoli’s popular movement organizers announced through loudspeakers in Abdel Hamid Karami’s “Al-Nour Square” this evening, that tomorrow will be a general strike day in the city, and the main and subsidiary roads will be cut off starting 4:00am, NNA correspondent in Tripoli reported.
Taymour Jumblatt announces Democratic Gathering’s boycott of tomorrow’s parliamentary consultations
NNA/December 08/2019
“Democratic Gathering” Chief, MP Taymour Jumblatt, tweeted Sunday saying: “Following the breach of the Constitution and violating the principles adopted in forming governments, namely through suspicious side consultations which denote a real setback that contradicts these principles and fails to respect institutions and their role, the Democratic Gathering will refrain from partaking in the parliamentary consultations scheduled for tomorrow.”
Sidon’s Elia Square turns into a meeting place to help the needy
NNA/December 08/2019
The “Square of Elia” in Sidon has turned into a meeting place for humanitarian initiatives organized by the city’s civil movement, within the framework of helping and supporting citizens especially those who have lost the ability to secure the least livelihood means in light of the difficult economic crisis.
In this context, the organizers, joined by several young men and women, worked to distribute food portions to those in need throughout the day, in addition to setting up a fully-equipped “open-air kitchen” on stage to secure food supplies to a number of needy families.
Rahi officiates over Mass service in Bkirki
NNA/December 08/2019
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi, likened the people’s revolution to “torrential rain,” calling on the political class to not disdain the civil movements and the youth revolution that wants to build a new civilized Lebanon. “There is no stronger force than the people!” he stressed.
The Prelate also advised the officials “not to ignore the demands of the people so that they do not block the roads, and not to bear the responsibility for destroying Lebanon before the international community.”On the other hand, the Patriarch called for mutual respect for the prerogatives of the judiciary and ecclesiastical justice in the case of “Mission de Vie.”
Bishop Alwan: The Church does not protect anyone
NNA/December 08/2019
Maronite Patriarchal Vicar, Bishop Hanna Alwan, held a press conference on Sunday, dwelling on the issue of the two detained nuns. Alwan underlined the importance of the judiciary which determines, according to him, the itinerary and security of the state. He deemed that when justice is honest and non-politicized, the state will be in a good position, while the corruption of justice corrupts society. Calling for the independence of the judiciary, Bishop Alwan said the church does not protect anyone, but insists on the integrity and independence of the judiciary. He, thus, called for expanding the investigation to unveil the “unfeared truth” in the aforementioned case. With regards to sexual harassment, he recalled that it has not been tolerated by any pope, adding, “At the Council of Patriarchs, we have published a law on this issue to punish the perpetrators, and we do not cover or tolerate this matter, and we have commissioned a church committee to investigate.”
Lebanon’s Hariri re-emerges as PM candidate as Khatib withdraws
Al Jazeera/December 08/2019
Lebanon’s leading Sunni Muslim politician, Saad Hariri, has re-emerged as a candidate for prime minister as businessman Samir Khatib withdrew his candidacy to lead a government that must tackle an acute economic crisis. President Michel Aoun responded by postponing until December 16 consultations with lawmakers that had been expected to result in Khatib being named prime minister on Monday. The delay was requested by most parties in parliament, the presidency said on Sunday. Hariri quit as prime minister on October 29, prompted by mass protests against an entire political class blamed for state corruption and steering Lebanon into the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. Under the country’s power sharing system, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim. Hariri has continued to govern in a caretaker capacity until a new prime minister is named. After Hariri quit, talks to agree a new cabinet became mired in divisions between Hariri, who is aligned with Western and Gulf Arab states, and adversaries including the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah. Last month Hariri officially withdrew his candidacy to be prime minister. A consensus on Khatib appeared to form last week among the main parties, including Hariri. But Khatib failed to win enough backing from the Sunni Muslim establishment for the position. Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, Lebanon’s most senior Sunni cleric, told Khatib during a meeting on Sunday that he backed Hariri, Khatib said after the meeting. “I learnt … that as a result of meetings and consultations and contacts with the sons of the (Sunni) Islamic sect, agreement was reached on nominating Saad al-Hariri to form the coming government,” Khatib said.
There was no immediate statement from Hariri.
‘Hariri is no exception’
Protesters gathered outside parliament after the announcement for scheduled rallies to protest the way the government is being formed and the delays in choosing a candidate amid the downward spiral of the economy. They were quick to denounce Hariri’s possible return as a contender for the job. “We want an independent head of government,” said Layal Siblani, one of hundreds of protesters gathered outside parliament. “Hariri is no exception. He is one of the pillars of this authority, he and his family … They should not portray him as our savior because he has good international contacts.”Siblani also protested the role of the religious authority in naming or supporting a candidate. “The head of the government is for all people. We should all know that and that there is no room for religious authorities to interfere.”Security forces prevented the protesters from marching to Hariri’s office, tightening roadblocks and scuffling with some who tried to push their way out of a cordon. Heavy rains didn’t stop dozens of protesters from reaching the outside of Hariri’s office chanting: “You will not come back, Hariri,” and “Revolution.” In recent days, in his role as caretaker prime minister, Hariri appealed to friendly foreign states to help Lebanon secure credit lines for essential imports as the country grapples with a hard currency shortage. He has said he would return as prime minister only if he could lead a technocratic government of specialist ministers which he believes would satisfy protesters and be best placed to deal with the economic crisis and attract foreign aid. But this demand has been rejected by groups including Hezbollah and its ally Aoun, a Maronite Christian, who say the government must include politicians.
Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 08-09/2019
Hezbollah Is Stubbornly Insisting To Replicate The Puppet & Corrupted Resigned Lebanese Cabinet/Elias Bejjani/December 08/2019
Leading figures agree to new Hariri government/Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 08/2019
Megaphone: The voice of Lebanon’s uprising/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 08/2019
5 Quick Takeaways from the Lebanese Revolt, Others/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/December 08/2019
Lebanon and the Monster of Bankruptcy/Rajeh Khoury/Asharq Al Awsat/December 08/2019
Time Is Running Out/Interview With Former Minister Nasser al-Saidi/Michael Young/Carnegie/December 08/2019
The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 08-09/2019
Hezbollah Is Stubbornly Insisting To Replicate The Puppet & Corrupted Resigned Lebanese Cabinet
حزب الله مصر على استنساخ الحكومة التبعية والإفساد المستقيلة
Elias Bejjani/December 08/2019
The Iranian armed Lebanese terrorist proxy, “The Party Of God”, Hezbollah, is the actual ruler of Lebanon, and it fully controls the country’s decision making process, as well as all the officials including the president, House Speaker and the cabinet.
At the present time, and as a result of an Iranian recent orchestrated parliamentary elections, and an electoral non-constitutional law that was tailored and imposed by intimation and force, Hezbollah enjoys a majority in both the parliament and the Cabinet.
The mass public peaceful Lebanese revolution that has been going on for the past 52 days has forced the cabinet to resign.
But the Occupier, Hezbollah, and its Iranian masters, are still defiant and insist to maintain the pre revolution status quo.
Since the Cabinet’s resignation, Hezbollah has been stubbornly refusing to respond to any of the revolution’s just demands, and is insisting to maintain its irony Iranian grip on the country.
Hezbollah’s leadership in both Beirut and Tehran are evilly challenging the Lebanese peaceful revolution, and through terrorism and intimidation are adamant to replicate the corrupted-puppet resigned government in a bid to maintain their occupational status.
Apparently Hezbollah’s leadership has solely formed a new puppet government that is a mere replicate of the resigned one. But it is not yet official announced.
All that is left before its official announcement is a Lebanese Muslim Sunni politician that is willing to head it, as a facade cover no more no less.
Three Muslim Sunnis are competing for the post, Caretaker PM, Saad Al Hariri, Beirut MP Fouad Makhzoumi, and the businessman Samir Al Khatieb.
The PM’s name will be known tomorrow (Monday) through the folkloric president’s consultations with the 128 Members of the Lebanese Parliament.
But the real outcome is not clear due to the fact that many Lebanese well informed analysts strongly believe that the covert-Hariri Bassil business partnership is still very sold with the Hezbollah’s blessings which means that Hariri is still the one that Aoun, Bassil, Hezbollah and Berri prefer. They know him very well because he has been serving their interests, as well the Iranian agenda.
It is worth mentioning that 74 MP’s are all in Hezbollah’s leadership pocket and under its tip, and accordingly they will blindly vote in accordance to its orders “Faraman”.
In summary Hezbollah has belligerently refused to respond to all the demands of the revolution, and definitely will by force try to hold on to the ongoing status of its occupation.
Meanwhile the mass peaceful revolution is expected to go on in spite of all the oppression that its activists are facing, while all kinds of economical hardships that the country is facing are getting worse.
In conclusion, Lebanon needs a flood of divine intervention, and the floods of water on the roads to wash the ungodly leaders out.
Our Prays go to the oppressed and occupied Lebanon that Almighty God shall always guard, protect and safeguard.
Leading figures agree to new Hariri government
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 08/2019
BEIRUT: Samir Khatib, after meeting with Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdellatif Deryan on Sunday, 24 hours before the planned start of binding parliamentary consultations to name a new prime minister, will stand aside to allow Saad Hariri to form a government in Lebanon. Khatib had previously been recommended by Hariri, the former prime minister currently serving as caretaker, to succeed him. Lebanese security forces implemented strict security measures on Sunday, to ensure that the roads to the Baabda Palace were secure for the 128 members of Parliament, who will name the next prime minister. Last night the process was postponed for a week. Public affairs expert and activist Zeina El-Helou told Arab News: “The parties participating in the protests movement have decided through their coordination bodies that they will not block roads on Monday. Instead, they will allow for the parliamentary consultations to take place because, for 41 days, this has been our demand after Hariri’s government resigns.
“But if others proceed to block roads, know that they are affiliated with political parties that do not support the political settlement that will take place.”The civil movement continued in Beirut over the weekend, as activists rejected Khatib as a possible prime minister as “an extension of the ruling political power.”El-Helou said: “The parties in power did not take into consideration the people’s confidence crisis toward this government, nor have they considered the economic crisis or people’s demands. “We reject Hariri’s return to head the government because of his history in this role, and we refuse to have the crisis portrayed as a Sunni sect crisis.”MPs from the blocs that had agreed to name Khatib prime minister retracted the statement that this was final, especially the bloc affiliated with President Michel Aoun, the largest grouping in Parliament. Mario Aoun, member of the Strong Lebanon bloc, said: “The bloc has not yet made a final decision, but it is likely that Khatib will be named if Hariri does not retract his stance that he is the most powerful in his sect and because we are committed to national unity.”He did not rule out “a political surprise on the day of the consultations.”Hezbollah and its allies accused Hariri — without naming him — of “acting with obstinacy and selfishness in an attempt to evade duties.” MP Hassan Fadlallah of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc said: “There are those who think the boat will sink, so they try to jump off it to save themselves, or they see that the country is collapsing, so they want others to bear the consequences while they watch from outside the national responsibility.”The head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, said that the only solution to the political impasse was to form a government based on the principles of the Taif Agreement and the constitution. “We do not want to be part of a government that has toppled all the constitutional foundations,” he said.
Megaphone: The voice of Lebanon’s uprising
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 08/2019
Volunteers at the activist media platform say their goal is to push boundaries of acceptable discourse in Lebanon.
Beirut, Lebanon – Tarek Keblaoui has barely left the streets since Lebanon’s uprising began. He has experienced its twists and turns, from the initial explosion of unity more than 50 days ago, through subsequent episodes of violence and growing economic uncertainty.
It has not been easy for the 26-year-old freelance videographer, who films for Megaphone, an independent media platform that has grown to become the voice of the youth-driven protest movement. “I’ve been beaten, I’ve been teargassed, I’ve gone on very little sleep,” Keblaoui said, but he has never thought of leaving. “If this whole thing goes south? If there’s more violence? I’d buy a bigger zoom lens for the camera,” he added with a laugh. Like many Lebanese people, Keblaoui had waited for years to experience something like the cross-sectarian uprising that has swept Lebanon since October 17, bringing down a government in the process. Protesters want a new government of independent experts to be appointed to steward the country through its worst economic crisis in a generation, which they blame on policies adopted by former militia leaders and businessmen who have ruled Lebanon since its 1975-90 civil war. The demonstrators also want early elections to be held based on a new, non-sectarian electoral law. But the country’s political elites, deeply entrenched, have so far held on to power. They have used media organisations under their sway to try and steer the narrative of the uprising, while supporters of some parties, mainly Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement, have attacked protesters across the country in what appeared to be organised mobilisations.In this climate, working for an independent, anti-sectarian organisation like Megaphone can feel intimidating. “There’s always a fear that one day we’ll get the wrong kind of fame with the wrong kind of people, who might decide to take measures against us,” Keblaoui said. “But despite these fears, there’s a duty to keep going.”
‘Push the boundaries’
Founded in 2017, Megaphone has recently gained popularity for its critical take on news and its breakdowns of politicians speeches during the uprising. While the majority of its output consists of videos, it also publishes text opinion pieces in Arabic and daily news wraps in English and Arabic.
Before the uprising, Megaphone would post one or two videos a month, each of which received between tens of thousands and 200,000 views, but over the weeks-long protest movement, it has published scores of videos which have cumulatively been watched millions of times.
The platform has also published dozens of no-holds-barred opinion pieces, penned by leading Lebanese progressive thinkers, featuring topics ranging from how the uprising has countered patriarchy in the country, to dissections of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s psyche. A recent piece, titled “Cutting off the king’s head”, began with the line: “For those who do not know this: The ultimate goal of any revolution is to behead the king.”
It is rare to find that kind of outspoken coverage on traditional media in Lebanon, largely owned and funded by politicians and businessmen.
“The predominant structures in the media industry in Lebanon are more or less extensions of the current political establishment,” Rabie Barakat, a lecturer in media studies at the American University of Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “One way to circumvent these structures is to create platforms like Megaphone.”Megaphone is funded entirely with grants from foundations and programmes outside Lebanon, which according to Barakat, “makes sense, because we don’t have an industry in Lebanon capable of creating platforms that can sustain themselves”. The platform’s funders include the European Endowment for Democracy, Canal France International and Denmark-based International Media Support. Funders have no influence over Megaphone’s editorial policy, according to Jamal Saleh, the group’s creative director. Activists and journalists in Lebanon have been interrogated and, in some cases, sentenced to jail terms for critique far less cutting than that published by Megaphone. The platform’s volunteers say it is their goal to push the boundaries of what is deemed acceptable discourse in the country.
“We’ve been very critical from the beginning,” Saleh told Al Jazeera. “The revolution has definitely given us a more fertile ground and more support, and we feel that, but we never compromise on our editorial line.”
Between activism and journalism
Saleh spoke from the group’s nondescript Beirut office, the exact location of which is kept under wraps for security reasons. Similarly, all those who work with Megaphone keep a low profile online. The same cannot be said for their presence in the streets. Many have led chants throughout the current uprising, and at protests in the years before. Most of the Megaphone’s core group are in their mid to late 20s and met at the university. They participated in the large anti-corruption protests in Beirut in 2015, a precursor to the current uprising. “Almost everyone who works for us has held a Megaphone at some point, hence the name,” 27-year-old Saleh said. “We have all been involved in activism,” she added, noting that she does not see that as an issue for an organisation that also publishes news. “We have what I’d say is our straight news content in the daily news items, which aim to be more or less objective. But our progressive views are clear and I think that’s why people come to us.” Barakat said that the platform clearly has an “activist or a motivational side” that aims to drive the uprising in Lebanon. “I don’t think it’s ethically problematic by any means. I just think it’s good to distinguish between journalism and activism on a case-by-case basis.” Saleh said the group saw a large gap in what traditional media in the country was offering to a mostly-young part of the population who became increasingly opposed to the sectarian parties that have ruled the country since the civil war ended in 1990.
Amplifying regular voices
Megaphone’s style is slick and snappy – intentionally geared towards a generation who get their news on social media. Open up Instagram, Facebook and – to a lesser extent – Twitter in Lebanon today and you are bound to see posts of their daily news wraps, or links to their latest video, uploaded late at night by a tireless team of volunteers, although two people have recently been given salaried positions. The platform is also constantly evolving. Recently, it has been posting short, unedited, single-shot videos under the title “a snapshot from the street”, which amplify the voices of regular people taking part in the protests.
“This idea came from me arriving at Megaphone on the second night [of protests] after being teargassed and showing them this insanely cinematic footage,” Keblaoui recalled. Unfiltered and unedited, the videos show scenes like people chanting feminist slogans, an impassioned speech by an older man to young protesters about why the uprising is a “revolution”, and, from early on, security forces teargassing protesters. Saleh says 18-hour days have become the norm, and she had only seen her parents once in the first 30 days of the uprising.”Everyone here has given it their everything,” she said. “But it’s very fulfilling getting out this content that we all really believe in.”
5 Quick Takeaways from the Lebanese Revolt, Others
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/December 08/2019
1- In 1989, central and eastern Europe witnessed several uprisings that spelled the end of the Soviet Union: The people rose up in East Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. These protests were peaceful and derived inspiration from the 1789 French Revolution and the 1917 Russian Revolution. The uprisings were led by the people, not a party and a party leader. They did not destroy democratic and constitutional life. On the contrary, they established it out of nothing. They did not lead to civil war, but allowed them to contain the earthquake that was the peaceful division of Czechoslovakia. They also allowed them to take in the unification of Germany. These are the most ideal revolutions.
That same period, however, witnessed the conflict over who inherits the Soviet empire. Thus, we witnessed the wars in the former Yugoslavia and Chechnya. In both these cases, religion and sectarianism came to play and produced civil discord.
2- The “Arab Spring” revolts fall somewhere in between the above two examples: They started off peaceful, but the oppression of the ruling regimes pushed them towards the latter example. Tunisia remains the role exception.
The Lebanese revolution is a mix of the above two examples. It also derives examples from recent uprisings over poor socio-economic conditions that were witnessed in France, Chile, Iraq and Iran. The protesters are predominantly demanding improved social and economic conditions. The Lebanese people are also posing a question of identity, similar to what is taking place in Hong Kong and Catalonia.
3- Despite various contradictions, the Lebanese people have managed to mark major accomplishments that are at the core of their new revolutionary identity: First, they set aside sectarianism, even if for a small degree, from public life. Sectarianism looms large over Lebanon through cronyism and division of political shares. It would be futile to introduce any economic reform and provide job opportunities without shedding off some of this sectarianism. It would also be futile to attempt to save democracy and develop it while the country remains entrenched in sectarianism.
Second, the protests have been overwhelmingly peaceful. Let us take a step back and admire how youths, who have been deprived of their most basic rights, have managed to keep their protests peaceful. This peacefulness strikes at the core of a regime that has deprived them of life’s basic needs. This peacefulness is also a reflection of the restraint of the people and the best reply to de facto forces’ warnings and intimidation that the protests could spiral into violence.
4- The same relation that exists between sectarianism and violence also exists between the non-sectarianism and non-violence: It is true that the authority’s deliberate failure to meet the protesters’ demands have led some people to suicide. This total disregard to the pleas of the people could have easily pushed some of them towards violence. However, this is not how the Lebanese revolution works. Turning to violence in Lebanon is the easiest way to bring back sectarianism and lift the morale of its corrupt leaders. Civil divisions will eliminate social demands and the goals of the revolution once violence rears its ugly head.
5- The revolutions in central Europe may not have been possible without the collapse of the Soviet Union: The collapse provided fertile ground for change. This does not apply to Lebanon because Iran, despite its economic crisis and own protests, is still fully functional along with its allies and proxies. Iran and its allies are working on bringing about the Yugoslavia and Chechnya scenarios. This counter-revolution will only make the main uprisings more committed to their peaceful path.
Lebanon and the Monster of Bankruptcy
Rajeh Khoury/Asharq Al Awsat/December 08/2019
Last Wednesday, President Michel Aoun announced that parliamentary consultations would take place on Monday, thereby deferring them for five more days, 34 days after the government resigned, and 47 days after the revolution began. This happened after the end of the third meeting between Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, the latter representing the Shiite duo that has been insisting for two weeks on rejecting the proposed name of Samir Khatib for Prime Minister. All of this took place before Dany Abu Haidar, a Lebanese citizen, who took his own life because of poverty and inability to support his family, was buried.
What will have changed between last Wednesday and this Monday?
Nothing at the level of the regime and the government formation facing an economic crisis that has ushered a stage of bankruptcy and collapse. There is no clear path for either the appointment of Samir Khatib nor for the return of Saad Hariri after the political settlement that led to Michel Aoun’s presidential election collapsed. The uprising, which rejects a non-technocratic government and the inclusion of the same politicians who bankrupted the country, adds to this.
So, where can we go from here?
It is not enough to talk about an economic path that leads to panic, if not to hell, after the capital control measures taken that limited cash withdrawals from banks to USD300 per week and prevented transfers overseas, and after the valid fears of ‘haircuts’ on deposits.
It is not enough to talk about a political path that leads to more complications, especially after the bickering between Aoun and the former PMs who have repeatedly accused him of disregarding the constitution and trying to return to a time before the Taef Agreement. These accusations were launched after the President had been appointing ministers before choosing their PM. In response to popular demands to abide by the constitution, it was stated that “The President is using his constitutional rights by binding the consultations to a designation of a PM and the formation of a new government to prevent the country from descending into a prolonged vacuum.”
The dispute around this continued after the alliance between Aoun and the Shite duo, upon Hariri’s insistence on the formation of a technocratic government to meet the demands of the uprising, attempted to convince Hariri to commit political suicide. They pushed him to support Mohammad Safadi’s candidacy, then Samir Khatib, announce his support in a written statement, get the approval of the Mufti, the former PMs, and to take part in this government.
After Hariri rejected the temptations and pressures to head a techno-political government which would maintain Hezbollah’s dominance in political decision-making in the executive authority, it became clear that the alliance between Aoun and the Shiite duo, i.e., Hezbollah and Amal Movement, insist on having him for several reasons. First, he is economically useful, as he can work on reactivating the CEDRE Conference aid. Second, he is a local and regional Sunni power, which is important, especially during these difficult times when Hezbollah is subjected to severe foreign pressure, sanctions, and is classified as a terrorist organization by the US. Third, his approval of a techno-political government would help Hezbollah overcome the uprising and quell the protests it has produced from Tyre and Nabatieh to Baalbeck. This is especially important as it is happening in parallel with violent disturbances in Iran and Iraq; in the latter, the protesters set fire to the Iranian Consulate three times in Najaf while chanting, “Iran out out” despite the violent repression that they faced.
Before Aoun announced Monday as the date for the parliamentary consultations, the exchanges between him and the former PMs were heated. In a statement released by former PMs Fouad Siniora, Tammam Salam, and Najib Miqati, they said, “We are alarmed by the serious violation of the Taef Agreement in its letter and spirit, and we are alarmed by the assault on the parliamentary authority to designate a PM through binding parliamentary consultations conducted by the President and the assault on the authority of the designated PM by naming what is being called a possible PM.”
Aoun responded with a statement that repeated what he has been saying for the last month. He claims the consultations that he is doing are not a violation of the constitution and the Taef accord. He accused the former PMs of not realizing the negative consequences of accelerating consultations on the country’s general situation and national unity.
All of this comes after Hariri’s statement last week, where he explicitly accused Aoun of chronically denying the gravity of the situation the country is in. That is in terms of the popular uprising and its legitimate demands to form a technocratic government, the crippling economic crisis that has put the country on the brink of collapse, and the attempts to accuse him of discarding candidates for premiership other than him. In light of these irresponsible practices, he responded to Aoun’s famous slogan that he clung to and kept the country in presidential vacuum for two and a half years “either me or no one” with the slogan “Not me, but someone else”!
The uprising has been heightened after the number of suicides due to poverty has increased. It has rejected Samir Khatib’s candidacy raising the slogan “All of them means all of them”, which is being chanted now in Iraq.
This implies the necessity of overthrowing the entire corrupt political elite. The regime and the Shiite duo have presented a new slogan in opposition, “All of us means all of us in government.” This is related to what Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad had announced about there being no alternative to a national unity government, i.e., duplicating the current cabinet, other than remaining under a caretaker government for a very long time. This means rejecting all of the uprising’s demands and maintaining the regime which rebels accuse of being corrupt and plundering public funds, at a time where Lebanon has entered real bankruptcy and the threat of complete collapse.
Last Thursday, Siniora commented on Samir Khatib’s candidacy, saying “This man’s character and his ethics are one thing, but his suitability for this exceptional stage is something else.” When asked whether he would possibly name him in the consultations, he answered, “It is only possible to predict what a reasonable person would do, as for others, that is something else.” This implies that whoever is reasonable will not name Khatib.
This leads to a very confusing question:
What crisis will birth a government? Will it emerge out of a resolution of the dispute between the Sunni politicians and the alliance between Aoun and the Shiite duo? Or will come after the revolution is quashed so that a techno-political government is formed despite the widespread outrage stemming from the series of suicides that have taken place recently, such as George Zreik burning himself alive for not being able to pay his daughter’s school fees, Naji Fliti hanging himself for not being able to buy a LBP1,000 thyme manoushe for his daughter, Dany Abou Haidar taking his own life last Wednesday for not being able to support his family, and a fourth citizen committing suicide on Thursday after another citizen tried to burn himself alive in Akkar because of financial pressure?
The upcoming dates assigned for consultations are the last hope for Hariri’s approval. Still, it appears that the parliamentary alliance between Aoun and the Shiite duo, which includes 42 MPs, will be maintained until the end of the consultations in order to guarantee that Aoun remains in charge and push for a government that serves the interests of that alliance. But what do we do with the revolution and the rebels? How do we confront the monster of bankruptcy in a country where citizens take their own lives because they are unable to buy a manoushe? How do we confront it in a country where people rush to withdraw USD300 while TV channels compete to uncover scandals of theft and plunder, a country whose debt has reached USD100 billion while the amount that has been looted by politicians, stored in offshore European banks, exceeds USD320 billion?
Time Is Running Out/Interview With Former Minister Nasser al-Saidi
Michael Young/Carnegie/December 08/2019
In an interview, former minister Nasser al-Saidi explains why Lebanon’s financial revival will be a massive undertaking.
Nasser al-Saidi is a Lebanese economist who served as first vice governor of Lebanon’s Central Bank in 1993–2002 and as minister of economy and trade in 1998–2000. He was chief economist and strategist of the Dubai International Financial Center, and acts as an advisor to governments, central banks, and regulators in the region. He is currently the founder and president of Nasser Saidi & Associates. Diwan interviewed Saidi in early December to get his views on the financial crisis that Lebanon is facing today, and to ask him what steps are needed to install financial stability in the country. The monumental task ahead is why Saidi said that any new government willing to grapple with Lebanon’s financial problems would effectively face a politically suicidal undertaking.
Michael Young: You’ve described the way Lebanon has been raising money in recent decades as a “Ponzi scheme.” Can you elaborate on what you meant?
Nasser al-Saidi: A Ponzi scheme develops when promised returns on investments are paid to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors. How did this happen in Lebanon? Successive governments have been fiscally reckless, with an average budget deficit of 8.5 percent of GDP since 2010. The high levels of government borrowing along with high interest rates led to a “crowding out” of the private sector and a sharp decline in investment and domestic credit to the private sector. This resulted in dismal economic growth and now a recession.
In tandem, the Central Bank raised U.S. dollar interest rates to attract deposits of the Lebanese diaspora and foreign investors to help finance Lebanon’s twin deficits—the persistent current account deficits and the budget deficits. Higher interest rates raised the overall cost of government borrowing and led to a “crowding out” of the public sector: Government deficits were increasingly financed by the Central Bank. In turn, banks preferred to deposit at the Central Bank rather than risk lending to the private sector or the government, earning rates on U.S. dollar deposits exceeding international rates by 600 to 700 basis points. They were paid 8 percent and more, while international rates were 1 percent.
By 2016, the flow of remittances and capital inflows that served to finance Lebanon’s twin fiscal and current account deficits started declining. The Central Bank attempted to shore up its international reserves and preserve an overvalued exchange rate by increased borrowing from the banks through so-called “financial engineering” schemes and swap operations. It also engaged in a massive bailout of domestic banks—in excess of $5 billion—that had suffered large losses on their foreign operations in Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
While in the United States and Europe such bailouts after the 2007–2009 global financial crisis were undertaken by governments as part of their fiscal operations in return for equity and through the imposition of conditions, no such conditionality was imposed by Lebanon’s Central Bank. Financial engineering, swaps, and other quasi-fiscal operations led to a ballooning of its balance sheet, from 182 percent of GDP in 2015 to 280 percent by October 2019, the highest ratio in the world. The growth in Central Bank assets—largely Lebanese government bonds and T-bills—was financed by more bank borrowing at high interest rates and led to a growing liquidity crunch for the private sector.
The bottom line is that the Central Bank was financing government budget deficits and monetizing the public debt through bank borrowing, earning less on its “assets” than it was promising and paying the banks. Increasingly, it was paying high returns on deposits from fresh money from domestic banks and international borrowing.
MY: Lebanon has imposed de facto capital controls. Is the message here that the decisionmakers favor protecting the banking sector over economic growth? And if so, does Lebanon have other choices given the pain that would ensue if the banking sector were to collapse?
NS: The de facto, informal capital, payments, and exchange controls imposed by the banks, with the implicit consent of the Central Bank, are intended to control capital flight, given the growing loss of confidence in the sustainability of government finances and the ability of the banking system to continue financing government deficits. But the self-declared bank holidays only brought on panic by depositors and investors. Indeed, the measures were self-defeating: Capital and foreign exchange controls, along with payment restrictions, while temporarily protecting the banks and the international reserves of the Central Bank, have generated a downward spiral in trade and economic activity and will result in an increase in non-performing loans, directly hurting banks.
In addition, the imposition of controls is left to the arbitrary discretion of the banks, which has generated heightened uncertainty concerning transactions and payments, and has led to a drying up of capital inflows and remittances, weakening the net foreign asset position of the banking system. International country evidence shows that while capital controls can be effective as part of a policy toolkit, they are not a substitute for the well-structured macroeconomic, fiscal, financial, and monetary reform program that Lebanon needs.
MY: Today there is a liquidity crunch, which has dire consequences for a country very heavily reliant on imported goods. Given that the Central Bank appears to have much lower reserves than initially announced, does Lebanon have any other choice than to go to the international community for such liquidity?
NS: Given the large level of sovereign and Central Bank debt—a total of LL150,183 billion, of which LL82,249 billion is Central Bank debt as of the second quarter of 2019—and the direct exposure of the banking system, with 70 percent of bank assets being in government and Central Bank paper, Lebanon will need to turn to the international community. The promised CEDRE Conference commitments made by a group of donors and investors in April 2018 will have to be renegotiated and recast into a multilateral economic stabilization and liquidity fund. This fund will be subjected to conditionality relating to fiscal, sectoral (electricity, water, transport, and other), structural, and financial reforms.
MY: Can the banking sector survive the current shock?
NS: The banking sector, including the Central Bank, is at the core of the required macroeconomic and financial adjustment program, given that it holds an overwhelming share of public debt. Public debt (including Central Bank debt) will have to be reprofiled and restructured. For example, a domestic Lebanese pound debt reprofiling would repackage debt maturing over 2020–2023 into new debt at substantially lower rates, maturing over the next five to ten years. Similarly, foreign currency debt can also be restructured and repackaged into longer maturities, benefiting from a guarantee of the CEDRE participants, which would drastically lower interest rates. The suggested debt reprofiling and restructuring operations would result in substantially lower debt service costs from the current 10 percent of GDP and would create fiscal space during the adjustment period.
There will have to be a bail-in by the banks and their shareholders, accompanied by a consolidation and restructuring of the banking system. In turn, the extensive bail-in means that a large recapitalization and equity injection will be required to restore banking system soundness and monetary stability.
MY: Where do you see Lebanon going in the coming months? What dynamics will be in play?
NS: Absent the formation of a confidence rebuilding and credible new government and rapid policy reform measures, the current outlook is a deepening recession, growing unemployment, with a sharp fall in consumption, investment, and trade. It will also come with a continued depreciation of the Lebanese pound on the parallel market, resulting in rapidly accelerating inflation and a decline in real wages, along with a sharply growing budget deficit due to falling revenues. As a result, financial pressures on the banking system will increase, with a scenario of increasing ad hoc controls on economic activity and payments, and market distortions.
MY: What would you do at this stage to prevent the worst from happening? Can you outline a realistic step-by-step process the government and the banking sector can adopt to emerge from the financial mess they’ve created.
NS: Time is running out. A new government needs to be formed, dominated by non-partisan, independent, competent “technocratic” ministers known for their integrity, endowed with extraordinary decisionmaking powers, and willing to sacrifice their political future, given the difficult policy decisions required. Effectively, this would be a “hara-kiri government.” The government should, within weeks, prepare and start implementing a comprehensive macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary reform program with a clear policy road map including the implementation of structural reforms. While the policy road map should include deep structural reforms—for example pension system reform—these can be sequenced, but need not be implemented immediately.
The immediate priority is to address the interlinked currency, banking, fiscal, and financial crises. For the adjustment program to be credible, public finances must be put on a sustainable path through dramatic and sustained fiscal adjustment to reduce debt and the budget deficit—requiring a massive primary surplus of 6 percent of GDP, excluding interest payments. The state must also resize the public sector and restructure the financial system through a reprofiling and restructuring of public debt, including Central Bank debt. Lebanon will need to call on the international community to support its adjustment program through a reconfigured, recast CEDRE program. As part of the program, the Central Bank’s reserves will need to be supported by bilateral Central Bank swap lines. External multilateral funding worth some $20–25 billion (35–45 percent of GDP) will also be required.
These painful measures require a broad and strong political commitment. The choice is between market-imposed, disorderly, and painful adjustments, meaning a hard landing, or self-imposed reforms that are credible and sustainable. However, nothing indicates the ruling political class and policymakers are ready for these difficult choices. Nor is there political courage and capacity for reform.
