A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 30/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanonin its 14th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
October 30/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 30-November 01/2019
Mass Demos Continue in Tripoli, Sidon, Beirut as Tear Gas Fired in Akkar
Lebanon’s Aoun asks cabinet to continue caretaker role until new govt formed
Aoun Says Lebanon to Have ‘Clean Government’
US’s Pompeo calls for new, efficient government in Lebanon
US, Gulf countries sanction entities linked to IRGC and Hezbollah
UK: ‘Vital reforms’ needed in Lebanon to create a better country for all
Lebanese army command calls on protesters to open roads
Central Beirut Attack: A Political Message that Preceded Hariri’s Resignation
Report: Binding Parliamentary Consultations Expected this Week
Lebanon: Roukoz Calls For Govt With Exceptional Powers to Implement Reforms
Geagea: Presidential Settlement Has Fallen, Hariri Our 1st Choice for Non-Political Govt.
Schools, Universities to Resume Classes Thursday, Banks to Reopen Friday
EU Delegation, Envoys Urge Fast Govt. Formation, Dialogue with Civil Society
Lebanon Reopens but Crisis Remains after Hariri Resigns
Lebanese Government Down, What’s Next?
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 30-November 01/2019
Mass Demos Continue in Tripoli, Sidon, Beirut as Tear Gas Fired in Akkar
Naharnet/October 30/2010
Mass anti-corruption demonstrations continued Wednesday in the northern city of Tripoli and the southern city of Sidon, hours after blocked roads were re-opened across Lebanon in the wake of the government’s resignation. Some protesters in Tripoli’s al-Nour Square called for the fall of the president, the parliament speaker and the members of parliament. MTV meanwhile said that some roads will be blocked at night in the city. A mass demo was meanwhile staged in Sidon, with protesters roaming the city’s streets and re-blocking the Elia intersection. The Lebanese Red Cross later reported that three people were injured in a clash at the demo and that it was sending additional crews. In Akkar, the army fired tear gas to disperse protesters blocking the road in the town of al-Abdeh and minor injuries were reported. Protesters meanwhile blocked the international highway linking Tripoli and Minieh to al-Abdeh at the al-Beddawi point. In Beirut, dozens of protesters flocked to the Riad al-Solh Square and Martyrs Square. The National News Agency said the protesters were later joined by some supporters of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hariri’s supporters had earlier roamed Beirut’s streets on motorcycles in support of him. The army was meanwhile trying to reopen roads blocked by protesters in the Bekaa towns of Saadnayel, Taalabaya, Barelias, Qab Elias and al-Marj Major roads across Lebanon were reopened Wednesday following the government’s resignation but protesters have vowed to keep pushing for deeper change. Euphoric protesters experiencing a rare moment of national unity have pilloried politicians of all parties, calling for better public services, an end to rampant corruption and a complete overhaul of sectarian-based politics. When Prime Minister Saad Hariri appeared on television to announce his resignation, crowds erupted into celebrations across the country but warned that the government’s fall was only one of their demands. As roads reopened, the education ministry called on schools and universities to resume classes on Thursday morning. Banks are set to open on Friday. Lebanon’s economy, crippled by ballooning public debt, has been sliding to the brink of collapse in recent months. Hariri announced a much-delayed reform package last week in a bid to address some of the protesters’ demands and the requirements for a huge foreign assistance program to be unlocked. Some protesters want fresh elections to be organized, a move that would further delay the implementation of those reforms.
Lebanon’s Aoun asks cabinet to continue caretaker role until new govt formed
Reuters/Wednesday, 30 October 2019
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun on Wednesday asked the cabinet to continue in a caretaker role until a new government is formed, following the resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri on Tuesday. Hariri’s resignation toppled his coalition government. He said he had hit a “dead end” in trying to resolve a crisis unleashed by 13 days of protests against the ruling elite. “My resignation comes in response to the demands of [the people in the] streets of Lebanon,” Hariri said in a televised speech, adding he will be going to Baabda presidential palace, the official residence of the President of Lebanon, to submit his resignation to Lebanese President Michel Aoun. His resignation comes as protests have swept Lebanon for nearly two weeks, demanding the government resigns amid growing anger at political leaders accused of corruption. “Positions come and go, but the dignity and safety of the country is more important,” Hariri said.
Aoun Says Lebanon to Have ‘Clean Government’
Naharnet/October 30/2010
President Michel Aoun on Wednesday announced that Lebanon will have a “clean government,” a day after Saad Hariri bowed to unprecedented anti-graft street protests and submitted his government’s resignation. “Lebanon will have a clean government and the protests that happened have opened the door to major reform,” Aoun told a delegation from the Maronite League during a meeting in Baabda. “Should obstacles arise in our way, the people will return anew to the squares,” he warned. The president had earlier on Wednesday acknowledged Hariri’s resignation as prime minister but asked his government to continue on a caretaker basis until a new cabinet is formed. The resignation of the government has eased a two-week-old nationwide lockdown but protesters have vowed they would keep pushing for deeper change. Euphoric protesters experiencing a rare moment of national unity have pilloried politicians of all parties, calling for better public services, an end to rampant corruption and a complete overhaul of sectarian-based politics. When a somber Hariri appeared on television Tuesday to announce his resignation, crowds erupted into celebrations across the country but warned that the government’s fall was only one of their demands.
US’s Pompeo calls for new, efficient government in Lebanon
Reuters/Wednesday, 30 October 2019
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday urged Lebanon’s political leaders to help form a new government responsive to the needs of its people after Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister after huge protests against the ruling elite. “The United States calls on Lebanon’s political leaders to urgently facilitate the formation of a new government that can build a stable, prosperous, and secure Lebanon that is responsive to the needs of its citizens,” Pompeo said in a statement. Hariri announced his resignation on Tuesday, bowing to nearly two weeks of unprecedented nationwide protests against corruption and sectarianism.“The peaceful demonstrations and expressions of national unity over the last 13 days have sent a clear message. The Lebanese people want an efficient and effective government, economic reform, and an end to endemic corruption,” Pompeo said. “Any violence or provocative actions must stop, and we call upon Lebanon’s army and security services to continue to ensure the rights and safety of the protesters,” he added. Lebanon’s political leaders have appeared shell-shocked, trying simultaneously to express sympathy for the protest movement while warning of turmoil in the case of a power vacuum.
It has often taken months for Lebanon’s fractious political leaders to agree on a government line-up, a scenario Lebanon’s backers say the country can ill afford.
US, Gulf countries sanction entities linked to IRGC and Hezbollah
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 30 October 2019
The United States and six Gulf countries have announced sanctions on Wednesday on 25 entities linked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, in a move to tighten controls on both group’s finances. The sanctions were set by Riyadh-based Terrorist Financing Targeting Center (TFTC), a two-year-old group that includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in addition to the United States.They targeted companies supporting the Basij Resistance Force, a subordinate group of the Revolutionary Guard, that the Treasury said are used “to oppress domestic opposition with brutal displays of violence” and supply fighters to regional conflicts. “Today’s action is multilateral action by TFTC partners to expose and condemn the Iranian regime’s gross and repeated violations of international norms, including the attack that threatens the global economy by targeting the oil facility in Saudi Arabia,” a statement from the TFTC read. Among the 25 was Iranian Bank Mellat and mining, manufacturing and investment firms that support the Basij. Four of those listed were individuals running Hezbollah’s operations in Iraq. All 25 have previously been named in US Treasury sanctions announced in 2018. “The TFTC’s coordinated disruption of the financial networks used by the Iranian regime to fund terrorism is a powerful demonstration of Gulf unity,” said US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a statement. “This action demonstrates the unified position of the Gulf nations and the United States that Iran will not be allowed to escalate its malign activity in the region,” said Mnuchin, who addressed a business forum in Riyadh on Wednesday. (With AFP)
UK: ‘Vital reforms’ needed in Lebanon to create a better country for all
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 30 October 2019
Lebanon needs a government that can “urgently deliver vital reforms necessary to create a better country for all,” the British Embassy in Lebanon said on Wednesday, following Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s announcement of his resignation from government on Tuesday. “Violence or intimidation of peaceful protests from any group only undermines Lebanon’s unity and stability,” the embassy said on its official Twitter page. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced on Tuesday his resignation from government, weeks after an unprecedented wave of protests began in Lebanon. “My resignation comes in response to the demands of [the people in the] streets of Lebanon,” Hariri said in a televised speech, adding he will be going to Baabda presidential palace, the official residence of the President of Lebanon, to submit his resignation to Lebanese President Michel Aoun. His resignation comes as protests have swept Lebanon for nearly two weeks, demanding the government resigns amid growing anger at political leaders accused of corruption. “Positions come and go, but the dignity and safety of the country is more important,” Hariri said.
Lebanese army command calls on protesters to open roads
Reuters, Beirut/Wednesday, 30 October 2019
Lebanese soldiers and security officials urged protesters to open blocked roads on Wednesday so life could return to normal, after 13 days demonstrations paralyzed the country and forced the prime minister to resign. Troops cleared one major route north of Beirut after briefly scuffling with demonstrators in the morning. A group of soldiers tried to pick up a vehicle blocking the highway before it drove off, al-Jadeed television footage showed. At the Ring Bridge in the centre of the capital, a security officer tried to persuade crowds to clear the way to nearby hospitals. “I am staying here,” one woman told Reuters as she spread blankets across the road. Saad al-Hariri resigned as Lebanon’s prime minister on Tuesday, toppling his coalition government. He said he had hit a “dead end” in trying to resolve the crisis unleashed by the huge protests against the ruling elite. In a statement, the army command said people had a right to protest, but that applied “in public squares only.”The main protest camp in a square in the centre of the capital was quiet but was closed to traffic by security forces. Hariri made his resignation speech after a crowd loyal to the Shia Muslim Hezbollah and Amal movements attacked and destroyed a camp in central Beirut. It was the most serious strife on the streets of Beirut since 2008, when Hezbollah fighters seized control of the capital in a brief eruption of armed conflict with Lebanese adversaries loyal to Hariri and his allies at the time. The departure of Hariri, who has been traditionally backed by the West and Sunni Gulf Arab allies, pushes Lebanon into unpredictable political territory. The protests have compounded Lebanon’s already serious economic woes and banks kept their doors shut on Wednesday.
Central Beirut Attack: A Political Message that Preceded Hariri’s Resignation
Beirut – Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/Wednesday, 30 October, 2019
Many Lebanese politicians have seen attacks by Hezbollah and Amal supporters on anti-government protesters in Beirut’s central district as a direct message to Prime Minister Saad Hariri ahead of his resignation. Hariri submitted his official written resignation to President Michel Aoun on Tuesday, following a televised address to the protesters. His move came in contradiction to the stance of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had rejected the collapse of the cabinet. Sources close to the prime minister noted that recent street violence and attacks on protesters have increased his resolve to make the decision that has been long awaited by the demonstrators. On Tuesday, Hezbollah and Amal movement supporters wielding sticks and pipes attacked and destroyed a protest camp set up by the anti-government demonstrators near the Grand Serail in central Beirut. They have infiltrated the sit-ins and clashed with protesters several times. Former Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi said such moves were nothing more than “militia acts against independent and peaceful people.” “It was an attempt to terrorize the Lebanese and address the crisis with violence in response to Hariri’s decision to refuse to keep the status quo,” he noted. Kataeb Party MP Elias Hankash said the attacks could have one or two purposes: an attempt by Hezbollah to pressure Hariri to refrain from resigning, or to give him an image of the chaos that would prevail following such a resignation. Rifi asserted that despite Hezbollah’s attempts to appear as if it was not responsible for all the assaults on the demonstrators, the movement was to blame for the attacks. Hankash said that since Hezbollah’s plans were linked to external agendas, the movement could have many possible reactions to Hariri’s recent move. “There is no doubt that the party wanted this government to stay in power, because it is part of it; its fall will delegitimize the party and expose it,” the Kataeb deputy remarked.
Report: Binding Parliamentary Consultations Expected this Week
Naharnet/October 30/2019
People expect President Michel Aoun to make a statement on Wednesday announcing the acceptance of the resignation of PM Saad Hariri, who asserted that his Tuesday resignation is “final and effective.”The Presidency is also expected to make a second statement “probably before the end of the week,” setting the date for binding parliamentary consultations to assign the new PM, said al-Joumhouria daily. Political sources noted that setting a date for consultations is linked to reopening key roads blocked by protesters in order to facilitate the movement of deputies to Baabda Palace.
Ministerial sources said the presidential statement could be issued on Wednesday after the President concluded consultations with advisers and political allies before calling for binding parliamentary consultations.
Lebanon: Roukoz Calls For Govt With Exceptional Powers to Implement Reforms
Beirut- Paula Astih/Asharq Al Awsat/Wednesday, 30 October, 2019
MP Shamel Roukoz deplored warnings that the resignation of the government would put the country into chaos and uncertainty. He stressed, however, that a new Cabinet would give a fresh feeling of confidence both for the Lebanese people and the international community. Roukoz has recently announced his withdrawal from the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, which is headed by Foreign Minister and MP Gebran Bassil. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he called for the formation of a government of competent ministers, not necessarily technocrats, with the possibility of having exceptional powers to implement the required reforms. “More importantly, any new government should gain the confidence of the people before it gets the confidence of the parliament. It shouldn’t be a government of quotas. The larger the size of the government, the more the parties will rush to share quotas,” Roukoz emphasized. He also noted that deputies should not be appointed ministers, in order to ensure the proper functioning of the new government pursuant to the principle of the separation of powers. Moreover, he called for the adoption of the standards of efficiency, competence, and ethics in the selection of ministers. The Lebanese deputy criticized some parties for considering the street protests as a conspiracy against the state, saying: “The street has not and will not be an enemy of the state or the president.” “People have taken to the streets as a result of suffering; and since we are a democratic country… it is the duty of officials to listen to the voice of the protesters and their demands,” he remarked. Roukoz highlighted a possibility to agree on a new government formation within two days if there were positive intentions, “as long as the criteria to be followed are clear.”
Pointing to Iraq, Lebanon, Khamenei recalls how Iran put down unrest
DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday accused the United States and Saudi Arabia of stoking unrest in Lebanon and Iraq, saying Tehran understood the situation in those countries because it had had to suppress similar foreign interference at home. “The U.S. and Western intelligence services, with the financial backing of reactionary countries in the region, are spreading turmoil,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted by his official website as telling graduating army cadets. Khamenei urged protesters to seek changes in a lawful way in Iraq and Lebanon, where Iran has powerful allies among Shi’ite Muslim government factions. In an apparent warning, Khamenei praised Iran’s crackdown against street protests at home in 2018. “They (U.S. and Saudi Arabia) had similar plans for our dear country, but fortunately the people… came out in time and the armed forces were ready and that plot was neutralized,” Khamenei said, in a reference to the protests which were put down by security forces while authorities held pro-government rallies. Iran’s weeks-long unrest in 2017-2018 began as protests about economic hardship and corruption but grew into political rallies, some of which criticized Khamenei by name. They were the boldest challenge to Iran’s leadership since 2009, when security forces crushed a pro-reform uprising and killed dozens of protesters. “Our advice has always been to call for peace and (stopping) interference by foreign forces in these countries (Iraq and Lebanon),” President Hassan Rouhani’s chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi was quoted as saying earlier by state media. The United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel were riding a wave of popular demands and providing those forces with financial support, he added.
Geagea: Presidential Settlement Has Fallen, Hariri Our 1st Choice for Non-Political Govt.
Naharnet/October 30/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Wednesday announced that the 2016 political settlement that led to the election of President Michel Aoun “has definitely fallen,” as he noted that caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri is the LF’s “first choice” for heading a new “non-political” government.
“What’s needed is a salvation government that would be free of the traditional faces who have served in successive governments since years — a government that truly comprises independent men,” Geagea said in an interview with the Central News Agency. “Let no one try to outsmart the people… The situation can no longer bear this,” Geagea added, calling for “an independent government containing figures with a record of success, integrity, dynamism, uprightness and achievements.” He warned: “It is true that the roads have been reopened, but let no one think that the protest movement has ended. It is waiting around the corner in anticipation of what the ruling authorities will do. If they only change the faces, the 13-day scene is expected to continue for 130 days, and then there will be no country for them to rule and control.” Noting that the presidential settlement “has definitely fallen,” Geagea stressed that the LF will not take part in a “political government.”“The country can no longer bear old and repetitive solutions,” the LF leader cautioned. He explained: “In the (binding parliamentary) consultations (with President Michel Aoun), the MPs of the Strong Republic bloc will name someone who accepts to form a government with the specifications we have mentioned, knowing that (caretaker) PM Hariri is our first choice for such a government.”“In my opinion, the street will accept a government of this type, which would garner confidence if it is headed by Hariri,” Geagea added.
Schools, Universities to Resume Classes Thursday, Banks to Reopen Friday
Naharnet/October 30/2019
Education Minister Akram Shehayyeb on Wednesday called on all public and private schools, universities and institutes to resume classes on Thursday. In a statement, the minister said the decision was taken “following the Lebanese Army’s move to reopen roads in the various Lebanese regions, and after holding consultations with the various sectors and the meeting that was held at the ministry today, Wednesday with the associations of public school teachers.” Shehayyeb also called on the educational institutions to “intensify classes and extend them to weekends if needed.” The Association of Banks in Lebanon meanwhile announced that “banks will resume normal operations as of Friday, November 1.” “Due to the accumulating work created by the closure, it has been decided to extend banks’ working hours until 5pm on Friday and Saturday,” ABL added. The statement was issued after a meeting between the association and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. Banks have been closed since the eruption of the massive popular demonstrations and road-blocking protests on October 17. The government’s resignation Tuesday under pressure from the street has largely eased a two-week-old nationwide lockdown but protesters vowed Wednesday to keep pushing for deeper change.
EU Delegation, Envoys Urge Fast Govt. Formation, Dialogue with Civil Society
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 30/2019
The Delegation of the European Union and the EU Heads of Mission in Lebanon on Wednesday called for a speedy government formation process in the wake of Saad Hariri’s resignation. In a statement, they acknowledged that “Lebanon’s citizens have taken to the streets and expressed their disillusionment with the political situation in the country.”“They have called for accountability of political leaders and better governmental performance as well as to overcome societal divisions. Their calls must be heard,” the statement urged. It added that following Hariri’s resignation “it is imperative that a new Government is formed without delay and that structural reforms will be implemented.”“We call upon the Government to engage with civil society in an inclusive dialogue,” the EU Delegation and Heads of Mission added. Expressing “grave concern about any infringement on the citizens’ freedom of assembly and expression as well as about recent occasions of violence around protests,” the EU Delegation and Heads of Mission commended the security forces for “their policy of restraint shown so far.” “We continue to call on the authorities to protect all peaceful protests. Political parties bear responsibility for the behavior of their supporters. We call on all political leaders to refrain from rhetoric that could incite violence in this critical period ahead,” the statement added. “The European Union and its Member States reaffirm the strong and enduring partnership with Lebanon and its people and our support for Lebanon’s stability, territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence,” it said.
Lebanon Reopens but Crisis Remains after Hariri Resigns
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 30/2019
The resignation of Lebanon’s government under pressure from the street looked set to ease a two-week-old nationwide lockdown but protesters vowed they would keep pushing for deeper change. President Michel Aoun acknowledged Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister but asked his government to continue on a caretaker basis until a new cabinet is formed. But there was no clear way out of the political crisis that has drawn warnings from Lebanon’s foreign partners. On the ground, protesters, and in some places security forces, reopened most of the roads that had remained mostly blocked by protesters since a proposed tax on calls via messaging apps sparked a wave of demonstrations on October 17. The unprecedented mobilization swelled into a popular drive to remove a political elite which has remained largely unchanged since the end of the civil war three decades ago.
Euphoric protesters experiencing a rare moment of national unity have pilloried politicians of all parties, calling for better public services, an end to rampant corruption and a complete overhaul of sectarian-based politics. When a somber Hariri appeared on television Tuesday to announce his resignation, crowds erupted into celebrations across the country but warned that the government’s fall was only one of their demands. “The resignation is not enough to get us off the streets,” said Charbel, a 26-year-old draped in a Lebanese flag, who was still protesting in central Beirut on Wednesday. “We need to keep up the pressure, but we should not keep the roads closed because now it’s bothering even the people who were supporting the movement,” he said.
Protest life
Hariri’s resignation came after counter-demonstrators loyal to some of his political rivals attacked the main protest site in the capital’s Martyrs Square. They destroyed tents and marquees and the rest of the temporary infrastructure that has turned downtown Beirut into a huge encampment — hosting protests and political meetings by day, concerts and parties by night. Well-organized protesters however swiftly cleaned up and returned to the site, occupying the main flyover again on Tuesday evening. Food stands serving sandwiches or corn on the cob were doing brisk business. Some protesters laid out carpets and sofas, some slept in hammocks hung between traffic signals and others brought goal posts to set up a football pitch across the four-lane highway. By Wednesday, having won the government’s resignation, protesters were divided over the decision to remove roadblocks, which they see as one of the few sources of leverage for their leaderless and spontaneous movement. The resignation announced by Hariri came after the failure of days of consultations with his fractious cabinet to agree on a reshuffle and meet some of the protesters’ demands for a technocratic government. Early in the protests, Hariri had hinted that resigning was an option but his rivals in the government coalition, including Aoun’s party and its allies from the powerful Shiite movement Hizbullah had warned a political vacuum could lead to chaos. Hariri’s suggestions were rejected by Aoun, whose son-in-law Jebran Bassil is the outgoing foreign minister and one of the most reviled figures among the protesters. Forming a government in Lebanon can typically take months, with every sectarian and party leader seeking to protect their own communal interests. “There is no time for any of the old games,” Heiko Wimmen, Lebanon project director at the International Crisis Group think tank told AFP.
– What’s next? –
“The pressure of the street and, perhaps even more so, the fear of economic collapse will dictate an accelerated government formation,” he said. The 49-year-old Hariri, who had already stepped down twice as prime minister in 10 years, could yet return as the head of the next government. “Hariri throws it all away to better negotiate his return,” wrote the French-language newspaper L’Orient-Le Jour. One rising name in the Sunni community to which the post is usually reserved is outgoing interior minister Raya al-Hassan, who is the first woman to take that job and has received praise for her bloodless handling of the protests. Lebanon’s economy, crippled by ballooning public debt, has been sliding to the brink of collapse in recent months. Hariri announced a much-delayed reform package last week in a bid to address some of the protesters’ demands and the requirements for a huge foreign assistance program to be unlocked. Some protesters want fresh elections to be organized, a move that would further delay the implementation of those reforms.
Lebanese Government Down, What’s Next?
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 30/2019
The resignation of Lebanon’s government marks a new phase in the unprecedented two-week-old protests against corruption and sectarianism that have gripped the country. It was welcomed as a victory by the protesters — but can it really be classified as one?Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations in Paris and Beirut, answers AFP’s questions on what comes next for the country.
Good news for the protesters?
Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his government’s resignation on Tuesday. “The demonstrators rejoiced, with the feeling that it was a first step towards the transition they’re asking for, towards a Lebanese civic identity, an independent government,” said Bitar. “But it may be fake good news, with the resignation allowing the Lebanese political class to buy time, a stalling tactic to demobilize the public and make sure that life returns to the country before bringing back the same clique in a few days or weeks.””The political class is banking on the protest running out of steam, that much is clear. It hopes the Lebanese, choked by economic hardship, will resume their daily lives.”
Can Hariri return as PM?
“One of the scenarios being considered is that he returns at the helm of a revamped line-up but at this stage nothing is clear.””This is an unprecedented situation, even by Lebanese standards of political uncertainty. Everybody was caught flat-footed by these events and everything is possible.””Among the demands of the protesters is… a neutral, independent and democratic government led by somebody other than Hariri. It may be tough for the elite to stomach but it remains high on the people’s wish-list.””Another of the movement’s demands is that this independent government, if it ever comes true, gives the country a new and more balanced electoral law.” “The most important thing is for this law to provide strict oversight of electoral financing and ensure equal media access for all candidates. This is necessary for the renewal of the political class the Lebanese want.”
Whither the protest movement?
“This movement needs structure and it also needs to retain a certain unanimity in its demands, which are the overhaul of the political system, as well as a neutral and technocratic government which is independent from both Lebanon’s communal leaders and from foreign powers.””At first this movement’s strength came from the fact that it has no leader, that everybody could identify to it and that it could not be coopted by any party.” “This strength can turn into a weakness when it’ll come to following through with parliamentary elections and facing parties that are very well structured and financed and — it cannot be ignored — have leaders who retain a following.” “This is akin to what happened in Egypt in 2011 — at first (it was) a leaderless revolution that energized the country’s youth, but as soon as the elections came, we saw that those who were in the streets really struggled to convert mobilization into votes.””Eventually the Muslim Brotherhood and the salafists garnered around 60 percent of the vote.”
Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 29-30/2019
How Lebanese PM Hariri defied Hezbollah/Ynetnews/Reuters|/October 30/2019
What’s Riad Salameh thinking/Dan Azzi/Annahar/October 30/2019
Hariri open to return as Prime Minister/Georgi Azar/Annahar/October 30/2019
Will Hezbollah allow elections or crack down on protests?/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 30/2019
What’s Next in Lebanon?/Michael Young/October 30/2019
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon pose a challenge to Iran/Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Koseph Krauss/AP/October 30/2019
The Internet and Mass Protests/Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/October 30/2019
The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 29-30/2019
How Lebanese PM Hariri defied Hezbollah
Ynetnews/Reuters|/October 30/2019
Hezbollah is more deeply involved than ever in the affairs of Lebanese government and as keen as anyone to stave off deeper financial problems that could lead to a destabilizing currency crisis
Reuters|Published: 10.30.19 , 22:20
After hitting a dead end in efforts to defuse the crisis sweeping Lebanon, Saad al-Hariri informed a top Hezbollah official on Monday he had no choice but to quit as prime minister in defiance of the powerful Shi’ite group. The decision by the Sunni leader shocked Hussein al-Khalil, political advisor to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who advised him against giving in to protesters who wanted to see his coalition government toppled. The meeting described to Reuters by four senior sources from outside Hariri’s Future Party captures a critical moment in the crisis that has swept Lebanon for the last two weeks as Hariri yielded to the massive street protests against the ruling elite. The resignation has left a political vacuum and paralyzed a state in need of urgent action to steer Lebanon out of an economic crisis that is hitting all Lebanese hard, including Hezbollah’s Shi’ite constituency.
Officials at Hariri’s office and Hezbollah could not immediately be reached for comment. The meeting which began at 8 p.m. at Hariri’s Beit al-Wasat residence in central Beirut did not last long.
“I have made my decision I want to resign to make a positive shock and give the protests some of what they want,” Hariri told Khalil, according to one of the sources. Khalil sought to change his mind. “These protests are nearly over, breathing their last breaths, we are next to you, steel yourself,” Khalil told Hariri.
But Hariri stuck by his decision.
He complained he was not getting the support he needed to carry out a major cabinet reshuffle that might have defused the street and allow the quick implementation of reforms. “I can no longer bear it and I am not getting any help,” Hariri said. The main sticking point, Hariri said, was Hezbollah’s Christian ally Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, a son-in-law of President Michel Aoun with whom the prime minister had clashed repeatedly since his cabinet was formed in January. While Hariri sought a major reshuffle that would remove Bassil – a target of protester ridicule – and others, Bassil and Aoun had resisted any reshuffle on the basis that demonstrators might not leave the street and demand even more concessions. “You, Hezbollah, are standing behind Gebran and supporting him,” Hariri told Khalil, according to the source. Bassil could not be reached for comment. After announcing his resignation, Hariri expressed relief.
A senior official familiar with his thinking told Reuters he could form a new government if his conditions are met. The resignation is a major blow for Hezbollah, which is more deeply involved than ever in the affairs of Lebanese government and as keen as anyone to stave off deeper financial problems that could lead to a destabilizing currency crisis.
Ahead of the resignation, Nasrallah had twice said he was against the resignation of the Hariri government, suggesting that some of the protesters were financed by the group’s foreign adversaries and implementing their agendas. The post of prime minister must be filled by a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s sectarian system, and while Hezbollah has Sunni allies, Hariri is seen as critical to navigating a way out of this crisis because of his international backing. “This is a strong blow to Hezbollah. Its hands have now been tied,” said a source familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking. “The biggest winner is Hariri.”
Hariri entered this cabinet, his third, with the balance of power tilted against him and in favor of the heavily armed Hezbollah, which together with its allies won more than 70 of parliament’s 128 seats in a 2018 election.
Hariri had lost more than one third of his lawmakers in that election, including some to Sunnis aligned with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah allies, including the FPM of Bassil and Aoun, secured the lion’s share of cabinet seats in Hariri’s cabinet. Hariri clashed with Bassil, particularly over long-elusive reforms needed to plug gaping holes in the state finances. Hezbollah forged its alliance with the FPM in 2006, winning an influential Christian friend as Lebanese politics was recast by the withdrawal of the Syrian government forces that had dominated the country since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. As foreign minister, Bassil has consistently spoken in international forums such as the Arab league to defend Hezbollah and its possession of weapons.
He is seen as a presidential hopeful.
In line with Hezbollah’s view, Bassil called for Syria to be allowed back into the Arab League at a meeting earlier this month, generating more friction with Hariri because it was at odds with Lebanese government policy. The source familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking said the group had refrained from attacking Hariri over his decision to quit, to leave open the possibility of him becoming prime minister of a new coalition cabinet. Hezbollah “must preserve a way back” from the crisis, the source said.
What’s Riad Salameh thinking
Dan Azzi/Annahar/October 30/2019
Salameh was used to miracles. He’d seen the country teeter on the edge, and through a combination of skillful maneuvering, luck, and loyal friends of Lebanon, was able to avert disaster multiple times.
“If you want to understand a man, walk a mile in his shoes.”
Riad Salameh sat in his plush office, with silk Persian carpets blanketing the floors, smoking his favorite Cuban cigar, as he blew concentric circles in the air, while reading the daily press reports. He didn’t like reading on a computer screen, so his long-term assistant Madame “Hallak” brought newspapers or printouts of online-only articles. Madame Hallak is one of the most important employees at the Central Bank (BDL), because she’s the filter who controls access to him. If measured by his salary and BDL’s $136 billion balance sheet, Salameh would, by far, would undoubtedly be the most important man in Lebanon. People who tried to breach Madame Hallak’s elaborate defense lines for her boss varied from chairmen of banks all the way down to “selfie with the governor” aspirants.
He cringed as he read some of the scathing criticism in the mainstream media that historically revered him. President Michel Aoun had renewed his fifth term 3 years ago, after a bitter fight among his advisors. Salameh scraped through, due to sound advice from market experts who warned the President that any change would be detrimental to monetary confidence.
He was now governor for 26 years. Whatever you may think of him, he had become indispensable. BDL was Salameh and Salameh was BDL.
Salameh’s approval rating stood at nearly 90% in 2016, triple that of any public official, attributed primarily to maintaining the Lira peg at 1507.5 per dollar for two decades. He was the most admired man in Lebanon through most of his tenure.
Salameh was briefly among the three frontrunners for president in 2016, but regional geopolitics and local deal-striking formed unimaginable alliances, leading to the election of President Aoun in 2016.
As he read more bad news, Salameh had an irresistible urge to call his most trusted lieutenant, a senior, highly-dedicated public servant “Semaan” who’s the unsung hero, quietly fighting the tactical battles. He asks him for the Reserves number. This is the dollar value of gross foreign currency reserves, which stood at $38.6 billion, or nearly $50 billion, if you include the gold stash, much of which is held for safe-keeping in Fort Knox, Kentucky. Salameh repeatedly conveys this number to the press, with his calm voice and slow drawl, in sharp contrast to the loud and animated Lebanese macho stereotype. Nonetheless, he oozed with confidence, and panicky visitors left his office calm, even ready to go long Lira and short dollar. He was the consummate salesman, a skill honed during his Merrill Lynch days 1973-1993, as a financial advisor for the wealthy, which is how he met late Prime Minister Rafiq Harriri. It was the beginning of a beautiful friendship culminating in his current position.
As he thought back to his legacy under attack, Salameh put on his suit jacket. He never left it behind, because of a sensitive key hidden in a secret, specially tailored pocket, which he carried on his person at all times. As he walked towards the waiting room, he stopped to admire pictures of his predecessors. Elias Sarkis was his favorite. He was the one who made the decision to buy gold, worth $14 billion today. Despite the fact that he’s forbidden to touch it by law, it gave him, and the country, excessive self-confidence, although he knew that it was unusable — selling even one gram would require a ministerial decree, but the signaling effect would be like yelling “fire” in a crowded theatre.
He also admired President Sarkis for his courage 1976-1982, when the country disintegrated into a brutal civil war. Sarkis witnessed the PLO setting up a state within a state, two Israeli invasions, the Syrian occupation of most of the country, while keeping the Lira stable in a tight band between 3.22 and 3.92 to the dollar.
He looked up at the picture, whispering, “Tell me, Elias, what should I do now?”
His thoughts are suddenly interrupted by loud chanting outside. He looks out a corridor window, as his office is designed to prevent someone outside from looking in (or someone inside look out). In the good times, it afforded privacy. Today it projected a sense of siege, like he was in a bunker. Demonstrators outside were screaming vitriolic slogans against him and the central bank. He wondered why they hated him instead of the impotent government. Didn’t he give them 22 years of prosperity? 22 years of a strong purchasing power and a higher standard of living than any Arab country in this neighborhood? Why are they so ungrateful? Will they now erase 22 years of legacy?
Salameh knew that $38.6 billion, practically-speaking, wasn’t relevant. The real number is one of the nation’s most guarded secrets, right up there with SHN’s undisclosed location. Estimated at around $30 billion, it was still monumental for such a tiny country. The savvy governor knew that it was not all deployable to protect the peg. He had to maintain a cushion to import essentials like grain, fuel, and medicine, to avoid Venezuela scenarios. He had maybe $6-$12 billion in usable reserves, and at the current leakage rate, wasn’t a lot of ammo.
Did those demonstrators know what he was up against?
He knew where this was going … but what about his legacy? He was Mr. Lira. He then recalled 2016 and wondered why he stayed on. He could have left as the Alan Greenspan of Lebanon, the Maestro of the East, the best central banker in the history of the country. He could have completed his memoirs, suntanning on the Côte D’Azur, or writing critical articles in An-Nahar, like all those back-seat generals questioning his judgment today, from the safety of their non-positions. He recalled the Wall Street expression from his days at Merrill Lynch: “You are your last trade.” He refused to be his last trade, but he needed a miracle.
Salameh was used to miracles. He’d seen the country teeter on the edge, and through a combination of skillful maneuvering, luck, and loyal friends of Lebanon, was able to avert disaster multiple times.
During the 2008 global credit crisis, when the West was facing Armageddon, Lebanon had a reverse capital flight to our perceived safety, an ironic twist of fate. Rich Lebanese expats stopped trusting top foreign banks, and moved their money to local banks, culminating in a Balance of Payment surplus of $20 billion between 2006 and 2010. This surplus was squandered on real estate development and government waste, resulting in a bubble, whose remnants can be seen in the shiny, vacant towers dotting the Beirut skyline.
In 2011, the surplus morphed into a persistent deficit every year until now. In 2016, Salameh recognized the danger signs. This was the fork in the road when he could have considered alternative unpopular measures, which he discarded in favor of continuing to “feed the beast” … but the beast got bigger and hungrier. That summer he made a fateful decision to execute what he called a “financial engineering” transaction, which paid banks an obscene amount in Lira, in exchange for “fresh” dollars obtained from overseas, seduced by mythological rates of interest. Banks booked billions in profit, partially to offset losses in misguided diversification attempts in Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq. They lost money in every single expansion overseas, which cannot be attributed to bad luck alone, and Salameh, like a guardian angel, was there to help them pick up the pieces, but opted not to slap them with a moral hazard penalty. Some people started throwing around words like Ponzi and Madoff. Even the venerable Economist magazine, described it “like a pyramid scheme … works only with a constant supply of new money.”
Salameh conducted more than a dozen more financial engineering transactions over the next three years, capturing $65 billion of bank dollar deposits (one out of every two US dollars).
In August, everyone blurted a sigh of relief, when S&P maintained our credit rating. While everyone was still popping corks of Champagne, Fitch threw a curveball, and downgraded us, when they calculated BDL’s net foreign reserves at negative $32 billion. The central bank now had more dollar debt than the Lebanese government itself.
Salameh realized that the trade deficit (net imports of almost $20 billion per year) was depleting his reserves. Before 2011, remittances, tourism, and FDI, more or less, covered this import binge, but not anymore. While his FE was covering the “supply side,” providing dollars for the continued import binge, it was costing him dearly in future risk. A few months ago, he finally attacked the demand side, by sucking liquidity out of the market, both in dollars and Lira, because around 70 piasters of every Lira spent eventually ends up converted to dollars for imports … hemorrhaging out of the country. The liquidity embargo, while effective for protecting the Lira, was catastrophic for the economy, causing growth to drop to zero, businesses to fail, and unemployment to rise. This was still not enough, so he curtailed transfers from Lira to dollars or transfers out of the country (by further restricting dollar liquidity). This overflow seeped into the real world, because customers had to go to exchange houses to buy fiat (physical) dollars.
A black market quickly developed, with the dollar trading up to 1800, for the first time in 22 years, jumping outside the band of 1500-1515.
The absence of any economic planning in the country meant that monetary policy was what lead the economy, instead of the reverse. This major flaw in the country had finally caught up with him. He recognized that any decision he makes directly affected the protestors below. It affected their livelihood, standard of living, employment, and quality of life. It also affected the ubiquitous security personnel, who were the ones who would be called to forcefully quell them, if they ever reached the critical mass to threaten the system. It also affected the top 1%, the elite who owned the country.
So any deliberate, drastic measures created too many simultaneous enemies.
However, the problem was too big for one man, and required a concerted effort from everyone in a position of authority. But even then, there was no magic pill to make the pain go away. It was really a choice between a soft (or softer) landing versus all-out chaos. Many of the decision makers, who were political appointees, did not understand the issues, and thus were incapable of offering a solution. Their expertise was in being loyal to their sponsor and giving media soundbites.
Most Lebanese economic analysts were TV media personalities, who had no training or experience in the cancer we were facing. Many of them were helpful for a while, lavishing praise on him and polishing his brand — ‘useful idiots’ during the good times. But today, the country needed something different— leadership. He needed those economists to stop sycophantically praising him, and instead convey the hard message to mobilize the country towards a form of “economic resistance.” Extreme measures were coming anyway, and it was really a choice between doing it at a time and place of our choosing … or having it done to us. He wished that the media had never depicted him as this omnipotent heroic figure, as if he could snap his fingers and stop the gathering storm in its tracks. He recalled the sycophants chanting, “As long as Riad Salameh is in charge, the Lira is fine.” He used to feel pride whenever he heard it, but today he realized that the country’s fate should never depend on any one man — not even him — but needed to be a nation of institutions. He knew the Lira was sick, and that chant was coming back to haunt him now — it put him in a corner and took away the obvious choice, especially that the ruling class had subcontracted this problem to him for so long.
Sometimes, the right choice is not politically palatable. The answer lay at the intersection of economics and politics. Any solution would strike at the constituency supporting a specific political party. Who was going to be the politician to tell his supporters that they have to give up entitlements?
Salameh closed his eyes to think. The country appeared in his imagination as a bus, driving towards a cliff, with its passengers arguing over the number of seats each can take, instead of trying to steer away from the edge.
The bleeding of dollars due to the twin budget and fiscal deficits was now consuming bank deposits. It was like quelling your hunger by eating your own foot. The solutions all involved some type of brutal dollar diet. Maybe he should have floated the Lira in 2008-2010 when massive surpluses were flowing into the country. The Lira would have risen to 1,000 per dollar, and as the balance of payment surplus turned negative in 2011, the Lira would depreciate slowly, back down to 1,500, and then even 2,000 today, allowing a gradual and soft landing. But retrospective vision is 20/20. Who’s the genius who could honestly claim today that he could have seen that in real time? Analyzing a battle in history books isn’t the same as being the General making life and death decisions in the fog of war. He was starting to question the financial engineering. He wondered if he had given the banks so much that their top management actually believed it was real — that their profits were due to their banking acumen and skills. They certainly paid bonuses and bought Fakra chalets like they were investment geniuses, instead of guys who failed at every expansion outside Lebanon, where they competed with real bankers, with real business models, instead of the Disneyworld, for which he was partially responsible, and where they earned free money for no added value. He wondered if he could have pulled off an equity stake in the banks he bailed out, preventing any banker from earning a bonus until every last penny was returned to the Lebanese taxpayer and depositors. He got angrier as he thought about them keeping the eurobond coupons he just paid them outside the country.
The FE transactions started out rare, then increased in frequency. The banks were like junkies, excited every time he announced one, waiting to snort the delicious white powder of phantom profits, but now, when he looked at their balance sheets, he could see the bags under their eyes, the slurred speech, the red nose …. they were badly in need of rehabilitation.
Salameh knew they needed drastic intrusive surgery to extract the country out of the coming abyss. He had to weigh protecting his legacy, and stretching the reserves for 3 more years, until his tenure ended, making it the next guy’s problem, or dealing with the long term-problem now. It was really a political, as much as an economic problem. In some sense, it was the consideration that every political leader in the country was calculating. It was much easier to play the blame game or find a scapegoat than to make a tough decision that’s good for the country but that damaged your personal reputation. Like the fires burning in Mechref and Damour. What’s easier, to extinguish them or issue outraged press releases?
He remembered Nietzsche, “If you stare into the abyss, the abyss will stare onto you.” He now stared deep into the abyss of possibilities: devaluation, haircuts, default. Every single option was catastrophic, and nobody in power wanted to face the abyss that was staring back at them, so they all left it to him, while they find a scapegoat. He remembered the idiom, “If you look around the poker table and can’t tell who the putz is, then it’s you.”
Ask a hundred Lebanese about the reason for the devaluation of the 1980’s and you’ll get a hundred different answers. It was a “Force Majeure” … like an earthquake. Nobody was held accountable. Nobody remembers who the governor was. Google “Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon” and he’s the only one who appears, as if no governor existed before 1993. He was like Adam and Eve of BDL. He didn’t have the advantage of anonymity now. His past success was his worst enemy today.
Success has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan.
Salameh looked out the window at the demonstrators, took a deep breath as he contemplated his options, and thought, “It’s lonely at the top.”
In an interview with CNN, he announced how dire the situation was … days away from a crisis. It was a conscious decision, high-risk, deviating from his “everything is fine and under control” message that he had consistently and convincingly delivered for 26 years. It was the first time that he sounded gloomy. But he had to do it. He had to light a fire under the decision makers to move. His statement shocked the market and the Lebanese people. They had never heard anything like this from the Superman of Lebanon. But Salameh gambled because banks were closed, so there was no chance of a run on them or the Lira. But there was collateral damage. Yields on eurobonds climbed to 37-60%, a level not seen in the history of the nation. So he had to backtrack from his statement somewhat, by issuing a clarification that ended up like the difference between “restructure” and “reschedule.” The next day prime minister Harriri resigned, granting a victory to the protestors, who were cursing Salameh, thinking that his CNN statement was aimed against them.
Salameh looked at his watch. It was 7pm, not the latest he’s ever worked, but he was still jet lagged from his trip to the United States, and he wanted to get some rest. He informed his lone bodyguard and driver that he was leaving. He didn’t have multiple bodyguards like many others in senior positions, because he was always well-loved by everyone, although he was wondering if that was still wise today. He believed that when your time came, no amount of bodyguards could protect you against a well-funded and committed group. He recalled his friend, the late Rafiq Harriri, with all his security resources, which didn’t change his fate.
As they drove out, there were some stragglers from the demonstrators. His tinted window was open. One of them, with a bandana on his head, stood right outside his window. They were a meter apart. They looked straight at each other, eye to eye — a symbol of the masses in pain and a symbol of the Lebanese capitalist system. He thought he would start yelling for the rest and they would mob his car, but maybe the demonstrator detected the sadness in his eyes. He gave the Governor his bandana, then just turned and walked back to the rest of the mob while hurling more insults at him and the central bank.
Hariri open to return as Prime Minister
Georgi Azar/Annahar/October 30/2019
In the wake of his resignation, which plunged Lebanon further into uncertainty, both the U.S and U.K called on Lebanese political leaders to facilitate the formation of a new government in line with demands of its people.
BEIRUT: Saad Hariri left the door open for his re-designation as prime minister, sources told Annahar. Reuters, quoting sources close to the outgoing prime minister, said Hariri was ready to form a new Cabinet on condition that it would be comprised of technocrats capable of implementing the necessary reforms to stave of a collapse. Hariri submitted his resignation Tuesday as protests took a violent turn after a group of Hezbollah and Amal supporters rampaged through downtown Beirut. He was reportedly willing to capitulate to the protesters’ demand of forming an independent government made up of experts, but had face stiff opposition from both the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s banking sector under pressure as protests endure
Instead, Hariri headed to the Baabda Presidential Palace where he presented his written resignation, saying that “he reached a dead end” in trying to “find a solution.”In the wake of his resignation, which plunged Lebanon further into uncertainty, both the U.S and U.K called on Lebanese political leaders to facilitate the formation of a new government in line with demands of its people. “The peaceful demonstrations and expressions of national unity over the last 13 days have sent a clear message. The Lebanese people want an efficient and effective government, economic reform, and an end to endemic corruption,” the U.S State Department said.
This was echoed by the U.K, who said that “Lebanon needs a government that can urgently deliver vital reforms necessary to create a better country for all.” Mass protests gripped the small Mediterranean country for 13 days, after decades of political incompetence and corruption deprived its people of the most basic needs. Electricity shortages, crumbling infrastructure and high unemployment finally took their toll, with protesters from all walks of life and different religious backgrounds banding together in a campaign of civil disobedience not seen in years. Following Hariri’s resignation, the vast majority of protesters elected to show political leaders a sign of good faith, lifting barricades that had blocked key roads and highways across Lebanon, including Jal el Dib and Zouk. After President Michel Aoun acceptes Hariri’s resignation, the government switched to caretaking mode and perform some governmental duties and functions until a new government is formed.
“Lebanon will now have an honest government,” Aoun said, calling on demonstrators to hit the streets again if their demands for reform aren’t met.Parliamentary consultations to nominate a new premier are expected to the coming days, as Lebanon finds itself in a race against time to settle the 2020 budget, enact necessary reforms, and convince international donors to unlock part of the CEDRE soft loan package.
Lebanon needs to slash its budget deficit, estimated at around 11 percent of GDP, while securing dollar liquidity to stabilize the Lira peg. The peg, which had acted as a guarantor of financial stability up to this point, has been put in question, with black market rates surging well above their official counterparts.
Lebanese banks had remained shuttered during the ordeal, but are set to resume normal operations on Friday. The association maintained that no capital markets would be put in place as they brace for an almost certain bank run.
Kataeb Party leader and MP Samir Gemayel welcomed Hariri’s resignation, reiterating the need for a concise government free of partisanship.
“The people have spoken and what Lebanon needs is am independent government to revamp its economy, retrieve stolen public funds and put forth expedited parliamentary elections,” he said.
Will Hezbollah allow elections or crack down on protests?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 30/2019
Lebanon was thrown into further uncertainty with Tuesday’s surprise resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The embattled leader realized his position was no longer tenable and quit, claiming he wished to make a “positive shock.” However, despite holding the office of prime minister, Hariri was never the principal power in Lebanon. That station is retained by Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, who holds no official political position. Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group designated as a terrorist organization by the US, UK and many other nations, and pivotal Iranian proxy in the Middle East, is the dominant political force in Lebanon. Yet Lebanon has witnessed unexpectedly sweeping protests against the entire political leadership of the country in recent days. What happens next depends entirely on how Hezbollah responds to the public demand for free and fair elections.
Lebanon is a state built on a fragile compact between different religious groups, most notably Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims and Eastern Orthodox Christians, but also groups such as the Druze, atheists and much smaller numbers of Jews, Baha’is, and so on. Whenever there has been a stable balance between the four largest groups, the country has prospered. Whenever that balance has been upset, the country has seen catastrophic civil wars complete with genocidal massacres.
The wonderful thing about the most recent protests is that, for the first time, they are entirely non-sectarian. For the first time in the modern history of this deeply divided country, people are not showing up to protest a rival religious group, they are not waving sectarian flags, and they are not seeking to alter the confessional balance of the political institutions in Beirut. Instead, they are waving the Lebanese flag, people are mixing freely with others from different groups, and they are asking that the respective leaderships of all the confessional groups be removed on account of corruption and mismanagement, to be replaced by people whose main qualification is that they are not corrupt.
So why is Hezbollah pivotal? Though the four largest demographic groups are very nearly equally represented in the Lebanese population at large, Hezbollah is by far the largest and best-organized sectarian political grouping. It emerged from the ill-fated Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006 as the “heroes of the whole nation” and has the strongest international backing of all sectarian political parties as a key regional ally of Iran.
But with power must come responsibility. The roots of the current outpouring of popular discontent lie in the fact that Lebanon has suffered a drastic economic downturn over the past year; it has struggled to cope with a significant refugee influx from the Syrian civil war (with the number of refugees now making up almost 25 percent of the pre-conflict population of Lebanon); and years of administrative mismanagement and corruption have been piling up. And though the entire cross-confessional political establishment is being criticized, Hezbollah, as the dominant party, will inevitably end up taking up most of the blame.
The current protests represent a fundamental threat to Hezbollah’s political prominence in Lebanon.
This is why the current protests represent a fundamental threat to Hezbollah’s political prominence in Lebanon, especially given that many Hezbollah foot soldiers are either actively participating in or tacitly approving of the ongoing protests. If there are to be new elections, as the protesters demand, the Hezbollah leadership stands to lose the most. This explains why Nasrallah has been all over the television in recent days, trying to mollify the protesters by acquiescing to their concerns about corruption and mismanagement, while at the same time trying to discredit parts of the uprising as sponsored by “foreign forces” (read Israel and the US). Party goons have been dispatched to various protest flashpoints to stare down protesters, especially Shiites expected to be supportive of Hezbollah’s positions and interests, and a sinister plot is already afoot to drive a sectarian wedge between the protesters.
The key question, though, is whether Hezbollah will limit itself to these measures as it prepares to accept some kind of decline in its relative power in Lebanon by conceding to the protesters’ demands and holding elections, or whether it treats the protests as a sectarian issue and will start mobilizing its militias to crack down on the protesters and try to concentrate even more power in its hands.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a director at the Center for Global Policy and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim
What’s Next in Lebanon?
Michael Young/October 30/2019
In an interview, Maha Yahya says that following Saad al-Hariri’s resignation the country faces a difficult transition.
Maha Yahya is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. She has been following the protests in Lebanon closely in the past two weeks, and sat for an interview with Diwan on the day that Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri decided to step down. She spoke about the causes of his resignation as well as prospects for what lies ahead as a new government is formed. She also discussed Hezbollah’s role in the recent protests and what options the party now has.
Michael Young: Why did Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resign after initially refusing to do so?
Maha Yahya: Hariri was left with little choice. He was under considerable pressure from protestors to resign, while his political partners in the national unity government wanted him to stay, but on their terms. These terms included a refusal to approve a cabinet reshuffle, a refusal to change the entire cabinet, and a willingness to use violence in the street, as happened hours before the prime minister’s resignation, when Hezbollah and Amal supporters attacked protestors in downtown Beirut and burned their tents. Hariri had already made it clear that he would resign should blood be shed. Meanwhile, political parties and Hariri’s former allies used the protests to settle domestic scores with their political foes.
Young: In light of this, what was the impact of his resignation?
Yahya: By resigning, Hariri turned the tables on both President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. He effectively broke Nasrallah’s word to protestors in two previous speeches when he affirmed that the government would not fall. Hariri also crossed Aoun’s red lines by forcing out of office, among others, Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son in law who is foreign minister. Antipathy toward Bassil was especially palpable among the protesters. All this opens the door for a new prime minister to form a government that does not include individuals objectionable to the protestors.
Young: What happens now that a new government is to be formed? What are the possible complications?
Yahya: Lebanon may enter into a period of instability. Hariri is head of a caretaker government with significantly diminished powers to address economic reform and the deep economic and financial crises that Lebanon is facing. Meanwhile, parliament must select a new prime minister, which requires a majority of votes among the parliamentary blocs. Given the makeup of the current parliament, it will be difficult to secure agreement among the various blocs on a candidate. However, with a looming financial and economic crisis, the blocs will need to move quickly to identify a candidate acceptable to them and to protestors on the street. The country simply cannot afford the time-consuming horse-trading that usually occurs when governments are formed. If there is an economic collapse and the Lebanese pound loses value, Lebanese citizens could see their incomes, pensions, and savings disappear. The fallout in terms of public anger could pale in comparison to what we’ve seen thus far.
Young: Are any names circulating to replace Hariri? How might things play out?
Yahya: Several options are on the table. One is that Hariri will be tasked with forming a government of technocrats. This is an unlikely scenario given his standoff with Bassil and Hezbollah, and is probably unacceptable to protestors. A second option may be to identify a candidate who is not a parliamentarian but who is acceptable to both the Sunni elite and other political parties. In any case, without the full support of Lebanon’s political class such a person and his or her government could be doomed. All ministries and state institutions are influenced by powerful politicians, who would be able to hinder the work of new government ministers in a multitude of ways.
One name making the rounds is Raya al-Hassan, the current interior minister and the first woman in the region to hold that post. She is part of Hariri’s parliamentary bloc but has not been tainted by corruption scandals. She is also from Tripoli, which saw the largest demonstrations. The question is could she or others with similar profiles enjoy widespread political support? More importantly in Hassan’s case, would protestors accept someone directly affiliated with the current political parties?
More critically, the biggest question revolves around Hezbollah’s choices. Will the party continue to hold on to Bassil and the current caretaker government at the expense of Lebanon’s stability? Yet if it were to do so, it would risk expanding the rift within the party’s own Shi‘a community, given that Hezbollah’s resistance to a change of government provoked considerable public anger, even among Shi‘a who supported the protest movement.
Young: Is there any possibility that violence may break out, as Hezbollah and its allies have already attacked protesters during the past two weeks?
Yahya: The prospect of violence has become more palpable than before. The attacks on peaceful protestors in downtown Beirut by Hezbollah and Amal followers indicated that the protest movement had become intolerable to them. This was not only because the protesters had named and shamed Shi‘a political leaders; it was also because both parties sought to silence dissent within their community and clamp down quickly on potential rifts that could undermine their standing in the country.
In Nasrallah’s speeches over the past two weeks, he depicted the popular demonstrations and public anger with the status quo as part of a conspiracy to undermine Hezbollah and its legitimacy. As such, he chose to perpetuate the status quo and a political order that has protected Hezbollah, a reaction that pro-Iran parties have also demonstrated in Iraq. The question is how far Hezbollah is willing to go in Lebanon. Until now the party has restricted itself to dispatching thugs to break up protests in Beirut and southern Lebanon.
Moving forward, Hezbollah has one of two choices. It can accept that the ground is shifting and that what has happened is not a conspiracy against the party, but a genuine groundswell of opposition to a system that had simply become intolerable. Here Hezbollah would endorse a new national salvation government and early elections as demanded by the protestors. Or, as is more likely, it will continue to adopt a reactionary position, in coordination with the Amal Movement and Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, which means that it will need to resort to even higher levels of force than what we’ve seen until now.
With the army continuing to protect the protestors, the question will be how far would Hezbollah be willing to go to prevent mobilization in the streets. And if the party is willing to use force, how will it deal with protests in predominantly Sunni Tripoli and Christian areas where it has a limited presence? The widespread and decentralized nature of the protests makes any effort to curtail them throughout Lebanon increasingly difficult. This is where the sectarian system comes into play. Any intervention by Hezbollah in non-Shi‘a areas can quickly lead to a sectarian conflict.
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon pose a challenge to Iran
الإحتجاجات في لبنان وإيران تشكل تحدياً لإيران
Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Koseph Krauss/AP/October 30/2019
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80041/protests-in-iraq-and-lebanon-pose-a-challenge-to-iran-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%ad%d8%aa%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86/
BAGHDAD (AP) — The day after anti-government protests erupted in Iraq, Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani flew into Baghdad late at night and took a helicopter to the heavily fortified Green Zone, where he surprised a group of top security officials by chairing a meeting in place of the prime minister.
The arrival of Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and the architect of its regional security apparatus, signaled Tehran’s concern over the protests, which had erupted across the capital and in Iraq’s Shiite heartland, and included calls for Iran to stop meddling in the country.
The protests in Iraq and Lebanon are fueled by local grievances and mainly directed at political elites, but they also pose a challenge to Iran, which closely backs both governments as well as powerful armed groups in each country. An increasingly violent crackdown in Iraq and an attack by Hezbollah supporters on the main protest camp in Beirut have raised fears of a backlash by Iran and its allies.
“We in Iran know how to deal with protests,” Soleimani told the Iraqi officials, according to two senior officials familiar with the meeting who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the secret gathering. “This happened in Iran and we got it under control.”
But nearly a month later, the protests in Iraq have resumed and demonstrations continue in Lebanon, both directed at governments and factions allied with Tehran. The protests threaten Iran’s regional influence at a time when it is struggling under crippling U.S. sanctions.
The day after Soleimani’s visit, the clashes between the protesters and security forces in Iraq became far more violent, with the death toll soaring past 100 as unidentified snipers shot demonstrators in the head and chest. Nearly 150 protesters were killed in less than a week.
During renewed protests this week, men in black plainclothes and masks stood in front of Iraqi soldiers, facing off with protesters and firing tear gas. Residents said they did not know who they were, with some speculating they were Iranians.
“Iran is afraid of these demonstrations because it has made the most gains in the government and parliament through parties close to it” since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, said Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi security analyst. “Iran does not want to lose these gains. So it has tried to work through its parties to contain the protests in a very Iranian way.”
It hasn’t worked.
The protests in Iraq resumed Friday after a brief hiatus, with protesters massing in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square and clashing with security forces as they tried to breach barricades on a bridge leading to the Green Zone, the seat of the government and home to several embassies. In southern Iraq, protesters have attacked and torched the offices of political parties and government-backed militias allied with Iran.
In a country that is OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, impoverished residents complain that powerful Shiite militias tied to Iran have built economic empires, taking control of state reconstruction projects and branching into illicit business activities.
“All the parties and factions are corrupt, and this is connected to Iran, because it’s using them to try and export its system of clerical rule to Iraq,” said Ali al-Araqi, a 35-year-old protester from the southern town of Nasiriyah, which has seen especially violent clashes between protesters and security forces.
“The people are against this, and that is why you are seeing an uprising against Iran,” he said.
Overnight Tuesday, masked men who appeared to be linked to Iraq’s security forces opened fire on protesters in Karbala, a holy city associated with the martyrdom of one of the most revered figures in Shiite Islam. At least 18 protesters were killed and hundreds were wounded in bloodshed that could mark an ominous turning point in the demonstrations. In Baghdad, protesters burned an Iranian flag. Days earlier, protesters had gathered outside the Iranian Consulate in Karbala, chanting “Iran, out, out!”
In Lebanon, hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets, demanding the resignation of a government dominated by pro-Iran factions. As in Iraq, the protests are focused on local grievances .
“The protests in both Iraq and Lebanon are primarily about local politics and a corrupt political class that has failed to deliver,” said Ayham Kamel, the Middle East and North Africa practice head at Eurasia Group.
The protests “showcase the failure of the proxy model where Iran is able to expand influence but its allies are unable to effectively govern,” Kamel said.
Lebanese protesters have only rarely called out Iran and its main local ally, the militant Hezbollah group, but they have focused much of their rage on Lebanon’s president and foreign minister, who come from a Christian party closely allied with Hezbollah.
A common chant, “All means all,” implies that none of Lebanon’s factions, including Hezbollah and its allies, are beyond reproach.
Last week, fistfights broke out at a main rally when protesters chanted against Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who announced at around the same time that he was withdrawing his supporters from the protests. He said unspecified foreign powers were exploiting the protests to undermine his group, warning that such actions could plunge the country back into civil war.
Iraqi anti-government protesters gather near the provincial council building during a demonstration in the southern city of Basra. (AP Photo/Nabil al-Jurani)
On Tuesday, Hezbollah supporters rampaged through the main protest camp in central Beirut. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a Western-backed leader who had reluctantly partnered with the pro-Iran factions in a national unity government, resigned. The protesters returned to the square by sundown, cheering their first victory since the demonstrations began Oct. 17.
Hezbollah is the most powerful armed force in Lebanon and was alone in refusing to disarm after the 1975-1990 civil war. It justifies its arsenal by saying it’s needed to defend the country from Israel, which occupied southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000.
Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to neighboring Syria to help defeat the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key Iranian ally. Iraq’s powerful Iran-backed militias, initially mobilized to battle the Islamic State group, have also fought alongside Assad’s troops. And Iran violently suppressed its own pro-democracy protests, known as the Green Movement, after the disputed 2009 presidential election.
Iran has been largely silent on the protests until Wednesday, when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the U.S. and its regional allies of fomenting the Iraq and Lebanon unrest, according to his website.
Khamenei, speaking at Iran’s Air Defense Academy, was quoted as saying that U.S. and Western intelligence services “are making chaos” in the region. He urged Iraq and Lebanon to prioritize national security and respect for law while also saying the protesters’ demands are “right.”
Earlier, Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi offered Tehran’s “deep regret” about the scores of protesters killed in Iraq.
“We are sure that the Iraqi government, nation and clerics can overcome these problems,” he said.
*Krauss reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
