A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 26-27/2019 Addressing the Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon

A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 26-27/2019 Addressing the Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
October 26-27/2019

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 26-27/2019
Anti-Govt. Protests Rage Unabated in Lebanon for 10th Day
Protesters Take to the Streets for 10th Day, Defying Hizbullah
Presidency: Aoun Did Not Reject Anti-Corruption Law
High Stakes for Army as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Police Remove Some Roadblocks as Nationwide Protests Touch 10th Day
Lebanese block roads as mass demonstrations enter 10th day
Injuries as Lebanese Military Scuffles with Protesters near Tripoli
Several Wounded in Gunfire Shots in al-Baddawi
Lebanese Police Drag Protestors, Remove Roadblocks in Beirut
Hezbollah Supporters Assault Protesters in Downtown Beirut
High Stakes for Army As Protests Enter Tenth Day
Protests Rattle the Postwar Order in Lebanon and Iraq

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 26-27/2019
Anti-Govt. Protests Rage Unabated in Lebanon for 10th Day
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
Protesters poured back onto streets and squares across Lebanon on Saturday, despite army efforts to unblock roads, with no end in sight to a crisis that has crippled the country for 10 days and kept banks closed. Army and security commanders met to plan ways to re-open main arteries to get traffic flowing again while “safeguarding the safety of protesters”, the military said in a statement. But people have closed routes with barriers, sit-ins and mass gatherings demanding the government resign. The General Security agency — one of Lebanon’s top three security bodies — said it has started to implement a plan to open key roads. An army spokesman told AFP that security forces would negotiate with protesters, without resorting to violence. Lebanon has been swept by days of protests against a political class accused of corruption, mismanagement of state finances and pushing the country toward an economic collapse unseen since the 1975-90 civil war. Banks, schools and many businesses have shut their doors. “We won’t leave the streets because this is the only card that people can pressure with,” Yehya al-Tannir, an actor protesting at a makeshift barricade on a main bridge in the capital Beirut. “We won’t leave until our demands are met.”Northeast of Beirut, dozens of demonstrators formed a human chain to prevent the army from removing a dirt berm blocking a seaside road. As night fell on Saturday, the first day of the weekend, protesters flooded streets across the country amid patriotic music, Lebanese flags and protest banners. Demonstrators who had slept in tents near Martyrs Square, said they were still defiant. “We will stay on the streets,” said Rabih al-Zein, a 34-year-old from the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon. “The power of the people is stronger than the power of the parties,” he told AFP.
Near the northern city of Tripoli, the army said it fired into the air during a disturbance with protesters. Five soldiers and a number of civilians were injured, it said. Banks will stay closed until life returns to normal and will pay month-end salaries through ATMs, the Association of Banks in Lebanon has said. It has held crisis meetings in recent days amid growing fears that a rush on the banks when they reopen could deplete dwindling foreign currency deposits.
Emergency reforms The protests have continued to grip Lebanon despite the government announcing an emergency reform package this week that failed to defuse anger. It has also yet to reassure foreign donors to unlock the billions in badly needed aid they have pledged. President Michel Aoun suggested banking secrecy should be lifted from the accounts of high-ranking officials. Ministers and lawmakers affiliated with the president’s Free Patriotic Movement are set to lift banking secrecy from their own accounts next week, according to an FPM statement.
In recent days, loyalists of Hezbollah and the FPM have mobilized counter-demonstrations across the country, sparking scuffles with demonstrators and journalists. Lebanon has one of the world’s highest levels of government debt as a share of economic output. The country’s largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the mostly peaceful protests. Waving Lebanese flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon’s political leaders. “All of them means all,” has been a popular slogan.
In the southern coastal city of Sidon, some shops opened their doors after days of closure. “Shopkeepers are opening up to see if they can get things moving. The end of the month is near, people have rents to pay,” said protester Hoda Hafez. “But in the end, they will all take part and come down to the (protest) square.”Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned on Friday against a power vacuum and urged followers to stay away from the protests after they assaulted demonstrators in central Beirut.

Protesters Take to the Streets for 10th Day, Defying Hizbullah
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Demonstrators in Lebanon blocked roads and trickled into streets across the country for a tenth consecutive day Saturday, defying what they said were attempts by Hizbullah to defuse their movement. The demonstrators — who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon since October 17 — are demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing many across different parties of systematic corruption.Numbers have declined since October 20, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday called on his supporters to leave the streets, warning that any cabinet resignation would lead to “chaos and collapse” of the economy. He also said that the protesters were being manipulated by “foreign powers” who wanted to leverage the unrest, shortly after his supporters clashed with demonstrators in Beirut. His statement sowed divisions among Hizbullah supporters, some of whom were still protesting on Saturday morning. Hassan Koteiche, 27, from a Hizbullah stronghold in Beirut, said he agreed with most of Nasrallah’s “excellent” speech, but had some reservations. “This does not mean we are against his discourse but there is a divergence in opinion,” he told AFP. “The main thing I disagree with is his belief that if the government or parliament falls then we would have no alternative,” he added. “That is not true. We have alternatives. We have noble and uncorrupt people,” who can govern.
‘We will stay’
Main roads remained closed across the country on Saturday morning, as the army tried to reopen key routes. Northeast of Beirut, dozens of demonstrators formed a human chain to prevent the army from removing a dirt berm blocking a sea-side road. In central Beirut, they sat cross-legged on a key artery that connects the capital to its suburbs and surrounding regions but the army later cleared them and opened the road. Nearby, droves of volunteers swept streets and collected rubbish after protests went late into the night, with people dancing on the street and in and abandoned former movie theatre. Demonstrators who had slept in tents near Martyrs Square, said they were still defiant on the tenth day of their protest movement, despite attempts by Hizbullah to rattle protesters. “We will stay on the streets,” said Rabih al-Zein, a 34-year-old from the Shiite-stronghold of Tyre, which saw unprecedented demonstrations over the past week. “The power of the people is stronger than the power of the parties,” he told AFP in central Beirut, adding that Hizbullah supporters would not keep them from demonstrating.  Lebanon’s largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the largely peaceful protests. Waving Lebanese flags rather than the partisan colours normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanon’s political leaders.
“All of them means all,” has been a popular slogan.
– Counter-demonstrations –
In recent days, loyalists of Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) — a Christian party founded by President Michel Aoun — mobilised counter-demonstrations across the country, sparking scuffles with demonstrators and journalists. The Iran-backed Hizbullah, considered a terrorist organisation by Israel and the United States, is the only movement not to have disarmed after Lebanon’s 15-year civil.Hundreds of its supporters gathered in the group’s strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs and the southern cities of Nabatiyeh and Tyre on Friday after Nasrallah’s speech, brandishing party flags. In central Beirut, they clashed with protesters, prompting riot police to intervene to break up the fight. In Nabatiyeh on Saturday, dozens of anti-government demonstrators returned to the streets, with a protester saying he was counting on the army and security forces to protect them from party loyalists. In a suburb north of Beirut, dozens of FPM loyalists staged a counter demonstration to express their support for the embattled president. Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between them has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year war in neighbouring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanon’s population lives in poverty, the World Bank says.

Presidency: Aoun Did Not Reject Anti-Corruption Law
Naharnet/October 26/2019
The Lebanese presidency media office on Saturday said in a statement that President Michel Aoun did not reject an anti-corruption law and that he referred it to the Parliament to introduce some “amendments.”
“Social media have circulated inaccurate information about President Aoun and that he rejected an anti-corruption law in the public sector and the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission to the Parliament,” said the Presidency on Twitter. “President Michel Aoun did not reject the law but he referred it to the Parliament for amendments,” it added.

High Stakes for Army as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 26/2019
It’s one of the iconic images of Lebanon’s protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd — the same dilemma now facing the national army. An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralysed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task. When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them. What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers. “There have been repeated attempts by the political establishment… to get the military to clear the street,” said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts,” said Nerguizian. Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become “two contradictory duties” — protecting the people’s freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment. Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders. The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005. Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Hizbullah grew to outgun the army, which took years to restore its credibility but never lost its popularity.
‘One of us’
“The Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible,” Nerguizian said. With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years. According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs “to build up its strength and viability.” It has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the country’s protector continues to be rivalled by Hizbullah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war. Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army. In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps. Today, political leaders have diverging positions “but the street is one”, said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019.
The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public. “He’s crying because he’s one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his,” said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day. Graffiti reading “the army is a red line” has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters. With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in. Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: “Save us!”

Police Remove Some Roadblocks as Nationwide Protests Touch 10th Day
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Lebanon’s army on Saturday removed roadblocks set up by protesters in at least one critical juncture linking Beirut to the suburbs and the country’s east amid a nationwide wave of protests, including a campaign of civil disobedience.
The protesters had set up several roadblocks around Beirut and on major roads to enforce their calls for the government to step down. The protests, now in their tenth day, have paralyzed the country, which already faces a major economic crisis. But the unprecedented demonstrations have also brought together Lebanese from all sects and political affiliation, uniting them in a common demand that long-serving politicians, accused of corruption and mismanagement, step down. On Saturday, Lebanese army removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of the intersection that links Beirut to the presidential palace, the mountain overlooking the city, the east and suburbs of Beirut. The protesters did not resist but one broke into tears, telling the local LBC television station that he was disappointed the army had to make them remove the roadblocks. The military had warned that blocking roads was in violation of the law. Other roadblocks have continued. In one location on the coastal highway to the south, the residents blocked the road as security forces attempted to remove a roadblock. In central Beirut, two women and two men were manning a roadblock that separated the eastern and western sector of the Lebanese capital. They said they have been at the roadblock for 10 days and have no plan to dismantle it but added that they would not fight the army. They let through an ambulance and a motorcycle. “This is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,” said 29-year-old Rima, who was manning the roadblock, referring to the government. “We are protesting. We are not vandalizing or violent.” Rima declined to give her last name, worried about her safety.

Lebanese block roads as mass demonstrations enter 10th day
Associated Press/October 26/2019
The demonstrations have brought together Lebanese from various religious sects and political affiliations, with many protesters directing their anger at their own representatives. Chanting “all means all,” the protesters have simultaneously indicted the entire political system and tried to head off
BEIRUT:Lebanese anti-government protesters stepped up their efforts to block roads in and around the capital Beirut on Saturday, lying in the streets and chanting “peaceful, peaceful” as security forces struggled to drag them out of the way.
The dispersals were largely peaceful, but clashes broke out near the northern city of Tripoli, injuring a number of people. The campaign of civil disobedience came on the 10th day of nationwide anti-government protests, the largest Lebanon has seen in years. “This is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,” said Rima, a 29-year-old who was manning one of the roadblocks in central Beirut, allowing in ambulances and motorcyclists. She declined to give her full name for security reasons.
The rallies have paralyzed a country already grappling with a severe fiscal crisis that demonstrators blame on political elites who have ruled since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Banks, universities and schools have been closed since last week.
Saturday’s attempts by demonstrators to step up resistance appeared to be in defiance of calls to open the roads — the protesters’ main pressure point on the government to respond to demands for major changes.
The demonstrations were sparked by proposals for new taxes, including one on WhatsApp voice calls and messaging services that came on the heels of recently passed austerity measures. They soon escalated into a call for the overthrow of the post-civil war political establishment, seen by many as corrupt and incompetent. Now, some protesters are calling for early parliamentary elections and a new, smaller Cabinet and have rejected economic reforms proposed by the current prime minister. “This is not a protest. This is a revolution,” said George, a civil engineer who also declined to give his last name for security reasons. In Beirut, there was some pushing, shoving and screaming as riot police tried to drag protesters away by the arms and legs. There were no reports of arrests or injuries. On one road, an armored personnel carrier came within several meters (yards) of a group of protesters lying in the road before turning back.
Near Tripoli in northern Lebanon, the army said it intervened after a group of people began fighting with protesters who had blocked a road. It said five soldiers were wounded by stones and fire bombs, and that the soldiers responded by shooting in the air and firing rubber bullets, wounding “a number” of people. The army didn’t elaborate. Videos posted online showed large numbers of people running through the streets, some hurt, as soldiers chased them while gunfire can be heard. It was a rare case of the army interfering to remove the road blocks.
On one major thoroughfare in downtown Beirut, security forces and protesters engaged in a cat and mouse game. After security forces dragged the protesters off the asphalt, the demonstrators returned to present them with flowers. Then they sat in the road, blocking a main route between the city’s east and west.
“The people want to bring down the regime,” the protesters chanted, reprising the main slogan of the Arab Spring uprisings that swept the Middle East in 2011. “We are not bandits,” one man cried as demonstrators were being dragged away. “We have rights and are asking for them.”
On the coastal highway north of Beirut, a large crowd of residents sat on the ground as others stood in a line as a military bulldozer approached, forcing it to turn back. To the south, Lebanese soldiers removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of an intersection linking Beirut to the presidential palace on a hill overlooking the city.
In each incident security forces appeared reluctant to forcibly confront the protesters. But Hezbollah’s criticism of the demonstrations raised concerns about a possible backlash. The demonstrations have brought together Lebanese from various religious sects and political affiliations, with many protesters directing their anger at their own representatives. Chanting “all means all,” the protesters have simultaneously indicted the entire political system and tried to head off any sectarianism. On Friday, the military warned that blocking roads was a violation of the law. The leader of the Hezbollah, the most powerful armed force in the country, called on the protesters to open the roads and ordered his supporters to leave the rallies after they brawled with rival protesters. In a speech Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah cast doubt on the spontaneous nature of the protests, saying foreign powers and rival political groups were exploiting the rallies to go after his group, which is closely allied with Iran. Shortly before he spoke, Hezbollah supporters fought with protesters who had criticized Nasrallah in the epicenter of the protests in central Beirut. Amnesty International, meanwhile, said that blocking the roads a way for the protesters to make their voices heard and called on authorities to protect the rallies against violence from political opponents.Later on Saturday, in one of the main demonstrations in Beirut, protesters chanted: “We aren’t afraid of the sectarian leaders.”

Injuries as Lebanese Military Scuffles with Protesters near Tripoli
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
The Lebanese army said it fired gunshots into the air after a clash at a protest road-block near the northern city of Tripoli on Saturday, injuring several people. The army said it had intervened to break up a skirmish between protesters and people trying to drive their cars on the road. Stones and fireworks were thrown at soldiers, injuring five of them, it said in a statement.After using tear gas, the army said it then fired into the air and also used rubber bullets, injuring several people. A witness said soldiers shot into the air after trying to re-open a road out of Tripoli that some protesters had been blocking, near the Beddawi Palestinian refugee camp. LBCI television said eight people were wounded, two were in critical condition. As part of the tenth day of unprecedented protests demanding the government resign, people have closed routes across Lebanon with makeshift barriers and sit-ins for days. Reuters TV footage showed soldiers and young men throwing stones at each other. The Lebanese Red Cross said on Twitter that three people were injured there and vehicles were being sent to the scene. The army said it brought reinforcements and the situation had quieted down. Television footage showed the protesters eventually embracing the officers, putting an end to the tensions.Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s office said he has asked the army’s commander to investigate the incident.

Several Wounded in Gunfire Shots in al-Baddawi
Naharnet/October 26/2019
Several individuals were wounded in Tripoli’s al-Biddawi when gunshots were fired during the military’s attempt to reopen the road blocked by protesters. The Lebanese army forces reportedly fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters. It was unclear who fired the gunshots but video footage circulating on social media showed a state of chaos and people running around, some with blood on their clothes. An ambulance was seen taking the wounded to the hospital. Earlier the army had asked residents of the area to “stay inside their houses until the tensions subside.”The protesters said the army troops had shot at them after firing tear gas.

Lebanese Police Drag Protestors, Remove Roadblocks in Beirut
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
Lebanese security forces pushed and dragged away protesters who refused to move from roadblocks in central Beirut on Saturday, to reopen roads closed during a campaign of civil disobedience. The protesters had set up several roadblocks around Beirut and on major highways to enforce their calls for the government to step down amid nationwide protests, now in their tenth day. When the riot police moved in to clear the roadblocks on the ring road that links eastern and western Beirut, many protesters sat or lay down on the asphalt in defiance. Some protesters chanted: “The people want to bring down the regime.””We are no bandits,” cried one man. “We have rights and are asking for them.”
Pushing and shoving, the security forces successfully opened the road and traffic flowed through. In another part of Lebanon, the army removed a roadblock without incident. But on the coastal highway to the north, a large crowd of residents sat on the ground and others stood in one line, blocking the military’s efforts to remove the roadblocks with a bulldozer. The military retreated. The military warned that blocking roads was in violation of the law. The head of Lebanon’s powerful militant Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, called on protesters to open the roads in a speech Friday.
The protests have paralyzed the country, which already faces a major economic crisis. Banks, universities and schools have been closed since last week.
But the unprecedented demonstrations have also brought together Lebanese from all sects and political affiliation, uniting them in a common demand that long-serving politicians, accused of corruption and mismanagement, step down. Squares in Beirut and other cities have filled up in a spontaneous expression of anger at the country’s political elite. A common chant, “All means all,” has demanded all incumbent officials step down. Nasrallah ordered his supporters to leave the protests on Friday after they clashed with anti-government protesters who criticized him. The Hezbollah leader tried to cast doubt on the spontaneity of the protests, saying that foreign powers and rivals are trying to exploit the rallies for political gains against his group. Just before the security forces moved in on Saturday, two women and two men were manning the roadblock on the ring road. They said they have been at the roadblock for 10 days and have no plan to dismantle it but added that they would not fight the army. They let through an ambulance and a motorcycle. “This is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,” said 29-year-old Rima, who was manning the roadblock, referring to the government. “We are protesting. We are not vandalizing or violent.” Rima declined to give her last name, worried about her safety.
To the south, Lebanese soldiers removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of the intersection that links Beirut to the presidential palace, the mountain overlooking the city, the east and suburbs of Beirut. The protesters did not resist but one broke into tears, telling the local LBC television station that he was disappointed the army had to force them to remove the roadblocks. Amnesty International has said that blocking the roads was part of the protesters’ efforts to make their voice heard, and called on authorities to protect the rallies against violence from political opponents.
The right of peaceful protesters to demonstrate on and block public roads has consistently been upheld by international human rights bodies which view urban spaces as a legitimate space for protest. The UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and Association has stated that “the free flow of traffic should not automatically take precedence over freedom of peaceful assembly.”Amnesty explained that restrictions can only be placed on the right to freedom of peaceful assembly where strictly necessary, proportionate and provided by law – such as clearing a access road to a hospital or removing an assembly which has caused substantial disruption for a significant period of time to accommodate a pressing social need.

Hezbollah Supporters Assault Protesters in Downtown Beirut
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
The ninth day of protests in Beirut witnessed tension for the second consecutive day after Hezbollah supporters clashed with demonstrators who have been holding a sit-in in the capital’s central district demanding the government’s resignation and an end to rampant corruption. Hezbollah supporters descended against on Friday on Riad al-Solh square near the Grand Serail to express their rejection to slogans against their leader, but they clashed with demonstrators and riot police that were deployed en masse in the area. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke shortly after his supporters clashed with protesters, calling on them to leave anti-government protests to avoid friction. Even after his televised speech ended, Nasrallah’s supporters continued their assault on protesters but riot police were finally able to remove them from Riad al-Solh square and the abutting Martyrs Square. The show of force continued when Hezbollah supporters held rallies in the party’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs and other areas, including Tyre, Nabatiyeh, the Bekaa Valley and Hermel. During the rallies, they expressed support to Nasrallah, rejecting that demonstrators equate him with corrupt politicians. Lebanese protesters have set up tents, blocking traffic in main thoroughfares and sleeping in public squares mainly in Beirut’s Riad al-Solh and Martyrs Square to enforce a civil disobedience campaign and keep up the pressure on the government to step down. The unprecedented mass protests come amid a deepening economic crisis in Lebanon.

High Stakes for Army As Protests Enter Tenth Day
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
It’s one of the iconic images of Lebanon’s protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd — the same dilemma now facing the national army. An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralyzed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task. When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them. What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers. “There have been repeated attempts by the political establishment… to get the military to clear the street,” said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts,” said Nerguizian. Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become “two contradictory duties” — protecting the people’s freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment. Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders. The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005.
– ‘One of us’ –
“The Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible,” Nerguizian said. With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years. According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs “to build up its strength and viability.”It has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the country’s protector continues to be rivaled by Hezbollah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war. Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army. In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps. Today, political leaders have diverging positions “but the street is one”, said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019. The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public. “He’s crying because he’s one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his,” said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day. Graffiti reading “the army is a red line” has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters. With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in. Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: “Save us!”

Protests Rattle the Postwar Order in Lebanon and Iraq
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Tens of thousands of people, many of them young and unemployed men, thronged public squares and blocked main streets Friday in the capitals of Iraq and Lebanon in unprecedented, spontaneous anti-government revolts in two countries scarred by long conflicts.
Demonstrators in Iraq were beaten back by police firing live ammunition and tear gas, and officials said 30 people were killed in a fresh wave of unrest that has left 179 civilians dead this month. In Lebanon, scuffles between rival political groups broke out at a protest camp, threatening to undermine an otherwise united civil disobedience campaign now in its ninth day. The protests are directed at a postwar political system and a class of elite leaders that have kept both countries from relapsing into civil war but achieved little else. The most common rallying cry from the protesters in Iraq and Lebanon is “Thieves! Thieves!” — a reference to officials they accuse of stealing their money and amassing wealth for decades. The leaderless uprisings are unprecedented in uniting people against political leaders from their own religious communities. But the revolutionary change they are calling for would dismantle power-sharing governments that have largely contained sectarian animosities and force out leaders who are close to Iran and its heavily armed local allies.
Their grievances are not new.
Three decades after the end of Lebanon’s civil war and 16 years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the streets of their capitals echo with the roar of private generators that keep the lights on. Tap water is undrinkable and trash goes uncollected. High unemployment forces the young to put off marriage and children. Every few years there are elections, and every time it seems like the same people win. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war distributed power and high offices among Christians, Shiites and Sunnis. It has mostly kept the peace, but has turned former warlords into a permanent political class that trades favors for votes. A planned tax on WhatsApp amid a financial crisis was the last straw. In Iraq, a similar arrangement among Shiites and minority Sunnis and Kurds has led to the same corrupt stasis, with parties haggling over ministries so they can give jobs and aid to supporters while lining their own pockets. The devastating war against the Islamic State group only exacerbated decades-old economic problems in the oil-rich country.
“They (leaders) have eaten away at the country like cancer,” said Abu Ali al-Majidi, 55, pointing toward the Green Zone, home to government offices and Western embassies. “They are all corrupt thieves,” he added, surrounded by his four sons who had come along for the protest.
In Iraq, a ferocious crackdown on protests that began Oct. 1 resulted in the deaths of 149 civilians in less than a week, most of them shot in the head and chest, along with eight security forces killed. After a three-week hiatus, the protests resumed Friday, with 30 people killed, according to the semi-official Iraq High Commission for Human Rights. In both countries, which share a history of civil strife, the potential for sustained turmoil is real. Iraq and Lebanon are considered to be firmly in Iran’s orbit, and Tehran is loath to see protracted political turbulence that threatens the status quo, fearing it may lose influence at a time when it is under heavy pressure from the U.S.The Iran-backed Hizbullah in Beirut and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Baghdad have said they want the governments in both countries to stay in power. The protests against Iraq’s Shiite-led government have spread to several, mainly Shiite-populated southern provinces. In Lebanon, demonstrations have erupted in Shiite communities, including in south Lebanon for the first time.
Signs of a backlash against Tehran’s tight grip on both countries can already be seen.
Among the protesters’ chants in Baghdad, one said: “Iran out, out! Baghdad free, free!” Protesters trying to reach the heavily fortified Green Zone were met with tear gas and live ammunition. Men in black plainclothes and masks stood in front of Iraqi soldiers, facing off with protesters and firing the tear gas. Residents said they did not know who they were, with some speculating they were Iranians. In the south, headquarters of Iran-backed militias were set on fire.
In central Beirut, Hizbullah supporters clashed with anti-government protesters. Supporters of the group rejected the protesters equating its leader with other corrupt politicians. A popular refrain in the rallies, now in their ninth day, has been: “All means all.” Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned in a televised speech that the protests — although largely peaceful until now — could lead to chaos and civil war. He said they were being hijacked by political rivals opposing the group. “We are closing the roads, calling for toppling the system that has been ruling us for the past 30 years with oppression, suppression and terror, said Abed Doughan, a protester blocking a street in southern Beirut. After Friday’s deadly violence in Iraq, a curfew was announced in several areas of the south. Hundreds of people were taken to hospitals, many with shortness of breath from the tear gas.
The current round of protests has been endorsed by nationalist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has a popular base of support and holds the largest number of seats in parliament. He has called on the government to resign and suspended his bloc’s participation in the government until it comes up with a reform program. However, powerful Shiite militias backed by Iran have stood by the government and suggested the demonstrations were an outside “conspiracy.” Iraq’s most senior Shiite spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, appealed for protesters and security forces to avoid violence. In his Friday sermon, he also criticized the government-appointed committee investigating the crackdown in the previous protests, saying it did not achieve its goals or uncover who was behind the violence.
As in the protests earlier this month, the protesters, organized on social media, started from the central Tahrir Square. The demonstrators carried Iraqi flags and chanted anti-government slogans, demanding jobs and better public services like water and electricity. “I want my country back, I want Iraq back,” said Ban Soumaydai, 50, an Education Ministry employee who wore black jeans, a white T-shirt and carried an Iraqi flag with the hashtag #We want a country printed on it. Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has struggled to deal with the protests. In an address to the nation early Friday, he promised a government reshuffle next week and pledged reforms. He told protesters they have a right to peaceful demonstrations and called on security forces to protect the protesters. Similarly, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri issued an emergency reform package few days after the protests began on Oct. 17 — a document that has been dismissed by protesters as “empty promises.”

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27/2019
People are not fooled: The Lebanese government’s reforms are not the solution/Sami Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/October 26/2019
Lebanon Battles to Be Born at Last/Roger Cohen/The New York Times/October 26/2019
Open Letter to Aoun, Berri, and Hariri/Elie Aoun/October 26/2019
Lebanon protests rock Hezbollah’s grip on power. That’s cause for hope — but also danger./Sulome Anderson/Think Site/October 27/2019
How Lebanon’s sectarian lens was broken/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 26, 2019
Lebanon must strategise and turn these peaceful protests into a win in the long run/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 26/2019

People are not fooled: The Lebanese government’s reforms are not the solution
Sami Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/October 26/2019
The government’s decision on October 17 to increase taxes and impose a fee on WhatsApp sparked unprecedented protests across Lebanon. These are not the first protests in the country – but this instance is different.
Firstly, the protests are spontaneous and leaderless, as people took themselves to the streets on a Thursday night. Secondly, the protests are not Beirut-centric: They are truly nationwide, including in political party strongholds usually immune to such movements. Thirdly, unlike the 2005 protests following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, those of 2011 against the sectarian system, or those of 2015 which were was triggered by the garbage crisis, this movement is primarily a socio-economic revolt triggered by tax.
Taken aback, politicians had to quickly acknowledge the grievances of an estimated one million protesters across the country. But they failed to understand how deep the discontent is. Prime Minister Saad Hariri came out with a 72-hour ultimatum to his coalition members. When it came on Monday, October 21, he announced a list of 25 policy measures to address the socio-economic crisis – most of these measures had already been proposed in the CEDRE conference back in April 2018.
It is striking how popular pressure suddenly sped up the government’s ability to act. In three days and one governmental session, it passed measures and bills which far exceeded the two bills – electricity in April 2019 and the Budget Law 2019 in July – that took more than 35 sessions held between February and last week.
Some of these key measures would be welcome: a reduction of the deficit, a commitment to no additional taxes on the people, the adoption of a pension law, and a pledge to fight corruption. However, many of the measures seem unrealistic and fall short of people’s expectations.
The reforms are too little, too late, and there are several concerns.
It is unclear how the government will reduce the deficit from more than 7 percent to almost 0.6 percent of GDP in one year. The task to cut $5 billion is monumental. The government’s claim that it found a way in just three days to achieve this cut, after more than 30 years of chronic budget deficit and without major tax reforms, is suspicious. A roadmap for implementing the plan and putting in place a sustainable and fair public finance framework is missing.
Reducing the deficit without taxing the people reveals how arrogant and greedy the political elites have been. They have consistently taxed working people and made them disproportionately carry the tax burden while arguing that there were no other options. The government only backtracked when the unfair tax system triggered this revolt.
The government’s plan to fight corruption – adopted from an existing government strategy – is ridiculous and is merely an attempt to appease donors and suggest it is taking action.
This time, people will have none of that.
If it were serious about reforms, the government would have prepared or even adopted the draft law to make the judiciary independent. It would have also strengthened the oversight agencies including the procurement office. These are crucial elements to fight corruption but the government has been silent on them.
Tellingly, it seems even the prime minister is not convinced of his own plan. He stated that in order to avoid corruption in state contracts, capital investment from taxpayers’ money – a key part of growth – will be zero. To state that the foreign-funded capital investment will be free of corruption is to admit that all publicly contracted projects are already infested with corruption. If this is the case, he should be setting up an independent committee to review all these contracts.
Likewise, Hariri provided few details on how pension reforms could work or be funded, and the policy seems to be merely another attempt to appease protesters.
The prime minister also repeated one of the demonstrators’ demands – to give back “stolen money.” But he clearly has neither the intention nor the means to implement a solution. How could he, when many of those who have contributed to public theft are either politicians, or have strong connections to them?
The timeline of the program is also unfeasible, considering how the Lebanese government works. All the proposed policy measures lack credibility, and they hollow out the state rather than build an effective one. There has been a deep failure in governance, and these policy measures cannot and will not be implemented without effective and sustained pressure.
There is a chance that Hariri has used the protests to pass measures which had been previously obstructed by his coalition partners to appease donors and gain access to CEDRE money.
But this is not what the country needs.
We need an effective state that works for the people, an accountable government that we can trust which listens to people’s needs, and a social contract where rights are protected and taxes are fairly allocated. None of this has been offered, and people are not fooled.
The protesters have made key gains. Not only have they forced the government to cancel its plans to tax working people, but they have imposed their agenda and are shaping political discourse in the country. They are breaking down the limits of possibility defined by the political elite and are drawing up their own set of rules. This is how fair, democratic, and accountable systems emerge.
*Sami Atallah is the executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). He leads several policy studies on subjects including political and social sectarianism, electoral behavior, and governance of the oil and gas sector. He is currently completing his PhD in Politics at New York University.

Lebanon Battles to Be Born at Last
روجر كوهين: نيويورك تيمز: وأخيراً صراع لبنان ليولد من جديد
Roger Cohen/The New York Times/October 26/2019
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79890/79890/
The Middle East could use a decent country. One million Lebanese protesters are demanding one. Hezbollah has other ideas.
BEIRUT — Lebanon was ahead of the game on civil war and now is last to the Arab Spring, or at least an Arab something — a vast, united exhalation of disgust at the thievery, corruption and nepotism that has caused widespread misery across this wounded land.
There they are, the people, citizens undifferentiated, with their suddenly discovered Lebanese flags, outside the Central Bank, demanding that its longtime governor, Riad Salameh, quit, hand himself over to judicial authorities, explain his son’s opulent wedding in Cannes this year, and provide details of money stolen by the government.
“All of them means all of them,” is the revolution’s cry — out with Salameh, and the Maronite Christian president, Michel Aoun, and the Sunni prime minister, Saad Hariri, and the Shia speaker, Nabih Berri, and even Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the militant group and political party that is a member of the coalition government.
Nasrallah? Taboos are falling at a giddying pace. Perhaps one million people have taken to the streets, a quarter of the Lebanese population. In this most sectarian of countries everyone stands together, for now.
The unity is fragile. Lebanon, through Hezbollah, is Iran’s proxy on the border of Israel. Hezbollah fought to save Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It won’t let its Lebanese power base go lightly. Already, Nasrallah has started blaming outside forces for the unrest and warned of chaos.
But young Lebanese are tired of being other people’s proxies. They are claiming their own country; hence those flags. Beirut is in lockdown. Banks are closed, businesses shuttered. A speech by Aoun, a week into the protests, was a flop. “Regime change, young fellows, does not take place in the streets,” he declared — and was mocked. The crowds believe that’s precisely where transformation occurs.
What else is new? A leaderless popular movement, propelled by social media, determined — with sudden unity — to overturn the status quo and render justice to the people. From Turkey to Chile, from France to Egypt, from Brazil to Libya, such upsurges of fury and idealism have marked the past decade, only to fail or fade more often than not. To be leaderless is beautiful. It is not necessarily effective.
But this is Lebanon, with its one feeble government, two armies (the state’s and Hezbollah’s), two currencies, 18 officially recognized religious groups, and one thousand conspiracy theories. The current situation cannot hold for long.
The state is weak, the economy on the verge of collapse, and an awakened citizenry unready for compromise with their leaders, whose demands for fealty have spread division and woes. Enough of war and warlords and the sectarian politics of fear! Lebanon is seeking a fresh start.
“This is the first time in our history that Christians, Druze, Sunni and Shia and everyone get together like this,” Rudy Marroum told me, standing outside the Central Bank. “It’s make or break, a last chance for Lebanon. The Lebanese and Palestinians helped build Dubai. They could not build their own countries, so they had to go and build other countries to feed their children.”
Mona Massalkhi stood nearby with her 20-year-old daughter, Leila, an occupational therapist. “We are not a poor country,” Massalkhi said. “We are just governed by thieves. I will stay in the street as long as it takes for the sake of my daughter, who has no future without change.”
I heard elaborate theories — never in short supply in Lebanon — about how the economy is dollarized in order to enslave the country to American interests, and how Salameh, the Central Bank governor for the past 26 years, has facilitated the offshore transfers of vast sums by government ministers, their families and cronies.
The economy, starved of capital inflows, is in free fall, with no growth, high unemployment and huge pressure on the Lebanese pound. Banks have not opened for a week for fear of a panic-driven stampede for dollars.
Garbage piles up. Electricity is intermittent. Sewage spills into the sea. “The only thing we recycle here is politicians,” Paula Yacoubian, an independent member of parliament, told me. The gold necklace she was wearing formed the Arabic word for “Enough!”
Via a back entrance to the Central Bank, across a garage, past a black Audi and BMW, I made my way, through elaborate security, to Salameh’s office. Only a skeleton staff is working. The governor wore a great suit and tie in a dimly lit office redolent of cigars. He was clearly under strain but also indignant about the accusations against him.
“Today, everybody can say whatever via social media,” Salameh, who came to this job from Merrill Lynch, told me. “I have read various so-called biographies of myself, and am discovering I did not know who I was before.” He smiled a wan smile. “My contribution over the years has been to try to hold Lebanon stable.”
It’s not easy, he said, when you have a tiny dollarized economy, where 73.5 percent of deposits are in foreign currency, budget deficits are high, and protecting the currency is a daily battle.
“I don’t know if the government is very corrupt,” he continued, “but I can say I worked very hard to put in place a special investigation commission to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, and I never compromised on this. Those who suffered from my decisions are now trying to drag me down with accusations of corruption.”
The Central Bank, he insisted, had no control over the private bank accounts of government members. “The Central Bank does not handle private accounts. I do not have this privilege. The banks should know their clients and report to us if they see something suspicious.”
As for the supposedly lavish Cannes wedding, the focus of much ire, Salameh said it took place overseas because his son, a Christian, wed a Muslim and it was easier to have a civil marriage in France. “It was just a normal dinner,” he said.
Salameh was clearly worried. He said he had no idea how the confrontation would end. Small and medium-size enterprises make up most of the Lebanese economy, and for now they have no income, with the country paralyzed. “The solution is not a violent one,” he told me. “You need to regenerate confidence.”
I asked if he would quit. “If it serves the country, but I think it may have the opposite effect, in terms of the confidence of markets.” He paused. “Look, if I am the problem, you can consider it solved. But mobilizing by identifying capital and money as the enemy is not the way forward. We need to build the state and build an economy that has growth.”
Thirty-six years ago I was in Lebanon covering the civil war for The Wall Street Journal. I recall visiting the Central Bank governor then, making my way through rubble and gunfire. Everything is relative. Beirut is not in flames, not yet at least.
In a way, the battle today sees a generation that did not live that war struggling to overcome its legacy at last. It would be a miracle if they succeed, but some new Lebanon has flickered to life these past nine days and will not quickly be snuffed out.
*Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
*Roger Cohen has been a columnist for The Times since 2009. His columns appear Wednesday and Saturday. He joined The Times in 1990, and has served as a foreign correspondent and foreign editor. @NYTimesCohen

Open Letter to Aoun, Berri, and Hariri
إيلي عون: رسالة مفتوحة إلى عون وبري والحريري
Elie Aoun/October 26/2019
I lived in the United States for more than twenty years. When I returned to Lebanon, there was a “dispute” (within the extended family) which had been unresolved for more than twenty years. I did not cause that dispute, I was not a party to it, and it was not my responsibility to solve it. Despite these facts, I took the initiative and resolved it in less than two months. In my humble opinion, this is an example of what a responsible leader would do.
Similarly, there are many problems in Lebanon which had been lingering for decades. Yet, no one from the three presidents assumed responsibility for any of them and resolved them. To the contrary, the language spoken was always one of blame. Each side blaming some unknown for prohibiting it from doing what they consider to be “reform.”
The speeches made by government officials and the comments made by supporters of the ruling political parties reveal a huge gap between what they proclaim and the actual meaningful solutions. Even if one wishes to consider the three presidents as the most decent and honorable individuals, the fact remains that they are not equipped to save the country. They simply do not know how, even if they want to.
A dispute on a family level was not resolved because the mentality of the individuals involved was not compatible to coming up with solutions – not necessarily because they were bad people. Similarly, the mentality of the ruling class is not “compatible” to elevate the country to a better status.
True leaders make changes from the first day on which they assume responsibility. Their entire being reflects the desire to make a difference, to improve the wellbeing of their people and those whom they love.
Many people now ask: What is the solution to the situation in Lebanon? How do the Lebanese cross the bridge from ineffective leadership to an effective one?
The answer does exist, but it has to be implemented by those who have the solution (and not to write about the solutions for others to implement them). We cannot present solutions to three presidents who have themselves declared by words and by inaction that they could not do anything throughout their term in office. Whomever they wish to blame is of no significance. What is significant is that they failed.
The three presidents face the following options:
(1) Refuse to acknowledge their failure;
(2) Refuse to acknowledge their inability to solve any of the country’s problems (with their history being an example, since everything in the country had been consistently deteriorating while they watched and did nothing meaningful); or
(3) Acknowledge their failure and inability and take the necessary measures to replace themselves with those who are willing to assume responsibility and solve existing problems.
The solution for Lebanon today is for the existing political class to surrender to reality – that they have failed and that they do not know how to establish a nation and protect its people. If they did, the people would not be demonstrating against them.
The so-called “solutions” presented by present politicians are of elementary level. They do not resolve the root cause of the problems and do not rise to the level of what the current situation demands.
There is one thing that the three presidents need to do and to do it well – and that is to replace themselves in a peaceful and constructive way. If they do so correctly, then they would be truly patriotic.
The three presidents have to agree on appointing one individual with full power to decide and implement decisions related to all economic and social aspects which caused the people to overwhelmingly go to the streets.
That person would assume full responsibility for one year, six months, four months, or even two weeks – whatever the three presidents decide.
What can a person do in two weeks or four months? This time-frame is enough to at least introduce the principles and measures that would put the country on the right path. Try me and watch. If I fail, hang me.
For some, it is very difficult or impossible to fly in the sky. But for an eagle, that is normal. Those who think that nothing meaningful can be done in two weeks or four months, they think so because they are not eagles.

Lebanon protests rock Hezbollah’s grip on power. That’s cause for hope — but also danger.
Sulome Anderson/Think Site/October 27/2019
I spoke to the militant group’s fighters. Their leadership is facing an existential crisis, which the U.S. can benefit from if it acts prudently.
On Wednesday, I spoke with the leader of a Hezbollah tank battalion over the phone. It sounded particularly chaotic in Dahieh, a Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Other parts of the city have been racked by massive demonstrations sweeping Lebanon, and he kept pausing to answer another mobile phone.
I’ve known this Hezbollah fighter for more than six years, and I have never heard him express anything but loyalty to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militia, U.S.-designated terror group and political party that, along with allied parties, holds more than half of the Cabinet seats in the Lebanese government. So it came as quite a shock when he criticized Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who is revered by his followers, and expressed support for the anti-government protests.
Open expressions of frustration with Hezbollah during public protests — let alone support for such protests from Nasrallah’s dedicated foot soldiers — are exceedingly rare.
“I support the protest movement because I am disgusted with life here,” the battalion leader told me, speaking on condition of anonymity because Hezbollah does not permit its members to be interviewed by Western media. He noted that while some Hezbollah followers have clashed with protesters as recently as Friday, others have actually joined in the demonstrations. “All of our ministers are corrupt,” he said. The Hezbollah leadership “is in a situation of chaos. They don’t know what to do right now.”
As someone of Lebanese descent, I am incredibly moved to see so many people unite in opposition to a government that has exploited the country for too long. Images of protesters dancing with abandon and displaying humorous signs railing against the political elite demonstrate a surge of Lebanese spirit I never imagined I would see in a population so ground down by conflict and political stagnation. Across Lebanon, immense crowds have been heard shouting crude chants against some of the country’s most prominent leaders since the demonstrations began a week ago.
The day Donald Trump stopped being the leader of the free world
While some of the coalition government’s leaders and parties have been frequent targets of demonstrations in this fractious country of divided religious sects, such as the Western- and Saudi-backed Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri, open expressions of frustration with Hezbollah during public protests — let alone support for such protests from Nasrallah’s dedicated foot soldiers — are exceedingly rare.
Hezbollah has weathered many storms in the 30 or so years it has been officially active, from an Israeli invasion in 2006 to the turmoil of the Syrian war next door, but never has it faced such strong domestic sentiment against it from across different sects. Whether Hezbollah chooses to quell the protests with force or sacrifice some of its political gains to appease demonstrators, one thing is certain: From a domestic standpoint, its leadership is facing the greatest existential crisis it has experienced in a long time.
This discontent with Lebanon’s most powerful political force represents either a potential crisis for the country if the situation turns violent, or an opportunity for its people to take the government in a new direction. In both cases, how the Trump administration chooses to respond could tip the scales in a positive direction for the Lebanese people or worsen a fragile and potentially disastrous security situation.
There are many unprecedented aspects to these demonstrations, including their size, scope and cross-sectarian nature. The protests erupted in response to an economic crisis that largely stems from long-standing corruption and political ineptitude as well as a massive refugee crisis brought on by the Syrian civil war.The nuclear risks in a U.S.-Iran conflict remain very real — and very scary
But the U.S. has also played a role: Crippling sanctions on Hezbollah recently imposed by the Trump administration have accelerated Lebanon’s economic woes. The U.S. accuses the Iranian proxy force of being behind a spate of kidnappings and bombings of American targets in the 1980s and now building up its arms for another war with Israel. Strengthened U.S. sanctions are being promoted as a way to force Hezbollah to its knees by strangling its sources of funding and ability to conduct financial transactions.
This U.S. role in the economic upheaval also underscores Hezbollah’s increasingly tenuous position. Nasrallah gave a speech Saturday in which he acknowledged the validity of the protesters’ demands, but expressed his opposition to the formation of a new government by including a thinly veiled threat that Hezbollah could try to contain the situation by taking over Beirut, as it did in 2008. “Shall Hezbollah … participate in the demonstrations, we won’t back down until our demands are met, even if we have to stay for months in the streets,” Nasrallah said.
In the speech, Nasrallah maintained that no foreign countries are influencing the protests – but he changed his tune this Friday, warning of a potential civil war erupting in Lebanon and urging followers to stay away from the demonstrations because he says international actors that oppose Hezbollah are exploiting them for their own purposes. Some still-loyal members of Hezbollah are predictably casting blame on the U.S. and Israel, and a Hezbollah infantry fighter I also spoke with was clear about who he believes is behind the unrest in Lebanon.
“The American pressure has had an effect,” he said, also speaking on condition of anonymity. “We were like a man walking on only one leg, and they broke that leg as well. … It is important to America to destabilize the situation in Lebanon.”
Bilal Saab, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, says that while the impact of the protests on Hezbollah’s political and military strength should not be overstated, there is no doubt the demonstrations have shaken the group’s confidence.
[These protests] are taking place across the country in places where you never expected Shia activism against the representatives” of the government, Saab said. “The very audacity of that, the widespread nature of it — it’s certainly new, and it’s not good news for the organization.”
Indeed, this popular uprising presents the Trump administration with an opportunity to carefully express support for a movement that could lead to a better government from America’s standpoint as well as for the Lebanese people without applying the kind of heavy-handed, inflammatory rhetoric Trump did with recent protests in Iran.
But there is also a significant risk that, should the U.S. repeat characteristic missteps, it could unleash even more chaos in a turbulent region. Unlike former President Barack Obama, Trump “uses sanctions like a sledgehammer and bangs away, and the more things break, the better,” said George A. Lopez, a professor at Notre Dame and an expert on sanctions.
Thus far, there has been a peculiar lack of messaging from the Trump administration regarding the Lebanese protests. While progressive 2020 Democratic presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are publicly supporting the demonstrations, the usually vocal Trump is strangely silent on events that may be weakening a longtime U.S. foe. Saab said this silence could be a sign of the confusion that has marked much of Trump’s Middle East policy. It could also be that the U.S. doesn’t want to be viewed as instigating the protests and thereby undermine them.
Whatever the goal and strategy, if Hezbollah doesn’t peacefully cede some of its political clout in response to the demonstrations, the situation could turn violent. Given the presence of other Iranian proxy forces across the region, any confrontation between the U.S. or its allies and Iran in Lebanon could spread to other parts of the Middle East.
In addition to Nasrallah’s own subtle threat to use force to maintain his grip on government, his followers, too, indicate a limited tolerance for the protests, should they go on.
“What [the protesters] are doing now, with half-naked dancers and drinking and whatever, this culture is not for us,” the Hezbollah infantryman told me, referring to what he sees as the immoral behavior protesters are engaging in. “We want official, organized reform, and changes made by the current government, but not chaos. If they start calling for us to dismantle our weapons, we will spill blood — even if it is our brothers’.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/lebanon-protests-rock-hezbollah-s-grip-power-s-cause-hope-ncna1072256?fbclid=IwAR1dRbsk0uk4WrBx6cCc12FACacuvh6tD8jexsHkOYl2LjmlmJUn
**Sulome Anderson
Sulome Anderson is a journalist and author based in Beirut and New York City. Her award-winning book “The Hostage’s Daughter” was published by HarperCollins in 2016. Follow her on Twitter @SulomeAnderson.

How Lebanon’s sectarian lens was broken
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 26, 2019
As a second week of protests continues in Lebanon, nothing seems to calm the popular wrath; on the contrary, every time an official makes a public speech, the public grows more offended at what they see as government hypocrisy and blatant mockery of their suffering. There is total discontent with the current system and political class, and an urgent need to move to something new.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri presented a program of economic reforms last week, but it was aimed more as fodder for media consumption than as a genuine plan to drive the radical and drastic reforms the country needs. For example, one of Hariri’s proposals was a 50 percent reduction in the salaries of ministers and members of parliament. However, the waste of public money that is bringing Lebanon to its knees is not due to the salaries of officials, but to the corruption associated with major government projects. Many officials receive kickbacks on such projects, or make illegal profits by bypassing the competitive bidding process while awarding contracts.
Three days after Hariri’s speech, President Michel Aoun also addressed the people and promised to fight corruption. He told the protesters he was willing to meet their representatives, but insisted that the streets were not a proper forum for bringing about reforms, which should be conducted through government institutions. However, his speech only fanned the flames and drove more people to the street. One protester said: “What reforms? We have seen nothing from his three-year presidency except a sectarian election law.” The Lebanese people do not trust government institutions that are controlled by corrupt politicians. The protesters were not even deterred by the speech of Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, who warned that the protests could lead to a new civil war. The demonstrators just kept coming.
The irony is that many of the politicians complaining about corruption and sectarianism are themselves a symptom of these two ailments. That is why one of the slogans shouted by protesters in the streets is: “All means all” — in other words, the whole government must go. This has led some politicians to grow nervous, and to start a blame game to save their own skins. A recording emerged of the sister of Gebran Bassil — the foreign minister and president’s son-in-law, who has been widely accused of corruption — in which she defended her brother and accused parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri of corruption. Sooner or later, the politicians who have driven the country into the ground will all blame each other.
The significance of the protest movement lies in the fact that the Lebanese people have begun to look beyond their religious denominations and their party affiliations. The sectarian lens has been broken. People now realise it is the current system that has driven them to the situation they are in. They want change — but how?
They like to call the protests a “revolution,” but it is more of a spontaneous movement. The protesters have even composed their own anthem, an adaptation of the Ode to Joy, the 18th-century German poem set to the grandiose music of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony, but the movement still has no proper structure, no head and no leadership. Every now and then the media gets different cues from people in the streets. Some say they want the parliament to resign, and they demand early elections. However, that would not solve the problems of Lebanon. The election law has resulted in gerrymandering the different voting districts in a way that promotes the sectarian political structure. The chances are, if an early election took place, Lebanon would end up with the same political figures, even if the law were changed. The system has not allowed for alternative political figures to flourish. This is why the country badly needs a proper political transition in which it moves from the democracy of the denominations to the democracy of the citizen
It is important to properly manage this movement and to steer it in the right direction; to capitalize on the momentum to carry out the necessary structural changes and reach a true democracy, a democracy in which the individual is treated as a citizen and not as a member of one denomination or another. Such a system in return would make each citizen feel first and foremost Lebanese, before they feel Christian, Sunni, Shiite or Druze.
The irony is that many of the politicians complaining about corruption and sectarianism are themselves a symptom of these two ailments.
I have written before that the Lebanese people need the support of the army, but that does not mean that Lebanon needs military rule. Rather, Lebanon needs the military to be the guardian of the political transition. The transition should drive government departments to be reformed and made efficient and cost effective. At this point there is a need for international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to set the standards and processes to conduct such reforms. Most importantly, the transition should involve criminal trials of corrupt politicians and the reacquisition of embezzled funds. Once these criminals have been exposed and put on trial, the Lebanese people will totally break with the traditional corrupt political elite and move on to a new era, an era of genuine democracy.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Lebanon must strategise and turn these peaceful protests into a win in the long run
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 26/2019
Protesters have to thwart agendas to turn their country into a failed state as that would then make it an arena for proxy wars
Lebanon’s wonderful, civilised protests have induced panic in the ranks of sectarian leaders, warlords and oligarchs and will bear more fruits if the protesters consolidate gains and pocket demands. What is happening is historical, not a fleeting outburst that will be contained, as many political leaders falsely and arrogantly believe.
Yet in order to remove the rot from a regime that has become accustomed to disregarding people and their rights, it will not be enough to disobey and overcome fear. The Lebanese must fasten their belts and be vigilant of those trying to overturn the uprising into dangerous populist demagoguery. To prepare for the next round, the people must insist on reforms and adopt a strategy of calculated perseverance. For now, however, we must congratulate the Lebanese for their demands, their insistence on their rights and in their refusal to fall into sectarian traps and be appeased.
More than a week after the protests started, threats by political leaders have failed. The unity and spontaneous organisation among protesters has been astonishing. The message is: the Lebanese have woken after a long coma. It is clear to the people that greed and stupidity drive the decisions of Lebanon’s rulers. The people will now accept only those who they can trust to occupy government posts.
Persisting with peaceful protests is the people’s strongest card. They must continue in their refusal to be drawn into clashes as this will protect the uprising against corruption, sectarianism, crony capitalism and the deliberate impoverishment of the country. It is crucial for protesters to develop a strategy to thwart agendas to turn Lebanon into a failed state that could become an arena for proxy wars.
This is not a revolution of the hungry, as some like to characterise it. It is a revolution to take back the state from a clique that thought it could subdue its people through sectarian fearmongering and treating them like cattle in a herd.
One after the other, Lebanon’s leaders have spoken with contempt, believing the uprising will be short-lived. President Michel Aoun’s belated bungled speech prompted pity for him and anger against those who allowed the presidency to fall so low. The prime minister’s office is in no better shape, thanks to the performance of Saad Hariri, who falsely believes he can appease people through half measures and that stalling would be in his favour.
Refusing to be drawn into clashes will protect the uprising against corruption, sectarianism, crony capitalism and the deliberate impoverishment of Lebanon
For his part, parliament speaker Nabih Berri believes he is above accountability, even as people accuse him of being at the heart of corruption.
It wasn’t enough for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to tell the people that he alone controlled the decision of whether or not the government would resign. He had to shake his famous index finger in the face of the Lebanese, threatening that they would have to pay a price for protesting. The people’s response came quickly. From the southern coastal city of Tyre to the north via Martyrs’ Square in Beirut, they refused to back down.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt thought that he could engage in political acrobatics once again, but people again responded. His fear of Nasrallah would no longer be an acceptable justification for realpolitik. Gebran Bassil, the foreign minister, spoke from Baabda Presidential Palace as though he was the acting president, and declared his continued allegiance to Hezbollah. The street protests have pledged to prosecute him.
Yet none of these men will step down easily. Many of them believe they must stay to ward off total collapse. Some of them will try to convince the army to suppress protests. Some will take it upon themselves to have their thugs assault protesters and divide them.
So far, the world has watched the events in Lebanon from a distance. Washington has been keen to reject calls by some Lebanese leaders to advise them on whether to resign or stick to their posts. Washington has rejected playing the puppet master. The US in its refusal to make decisions for Lebanon’s leaders is a good sign.
Washington says it will not back those who have sought half measures rejected by the people. Washington will not save the banks, will not offer immunity and will not stand in the way of a peaceful anti-corruption uprising. Washington will not intervene to save Mr Hariri’s government or the Aoun-Bassil presidency. It is clear in its support for the army and its neutrality. Washington’s decision is that the uprising belongs to the Lebanese alone, and its achievements must be protected against accusations of American meddling.
If this anti-corruption uprising survives attempts at sectarian infiltration, it could topple the entire political class. Further, the protests could hinder Hezbollah’s project to dominate the future of Lebanon, and avoid US sanctions crippling the group’s operations and targeting its funding sources in Tehran.
The protests have dented Hassan Nasrallah’s halo as a man who is above accountability and left him scrambling. Nasrallah at first dismissed the protests. Then he issued threats, betraying his anger and panic at a mass revolt that could decimate his project and the project of his masters in Tehran. He has to either cave to the protesters’ demands and stop blocking the government’s resignation — allowing it to be replaced by a technocratic government that he would not control — or spill blood, including among Shia Lebanese protesters.
Hezbollah may decide to destroy the whole temple on top of everybody’s heads if it senses that it has been structurally weakened. Hezbollah will not easily relinquish control of its domination of Lebanon, the presidency, and the government thanks to the ‘accord’ between Hariri, Nasrallah, and Aoun, midwifed by Bassil, the accord which has pushed Lebanon off the cliff and into the abyss. In other words, Nasrallah may decide that turning Lebanon into a failed state serves his interests, and pushes the country in that direction.
It is therefore imperative for the Lebanese uprising to adopt a counter-strategy to prevent the state’s collapse while insisting on binding social, political, and economic reforms that range from the immediate to the gradual. The uprising must adopt a tactic of “take and demand more” in order to consolidate its gains and push for accountability.
Right now, the most important matter is to persist in the protests and protect them, by avoiding the trap of provocation. Indeed, charging people amid the collapse could lead to riots, and attacks on homes and properties, which must not happen.
It is important to understand boundaries and factor them into tactics in order to achieve strategic wins against corruption and greed festering in the ruling class. If the public interest is best served through a technocratic government formed by Mr Hariri with figures acceptable to the people, then this would not count as a strategic concession but a tactical move as part of a broader strategy to prevent total collapse. It would count as a battle won among many coming battles.
A gradual approach is necessary. The first stop, after the revolution achieved historical gains by rising up against the ‘government of accord’, is to stabilise the economy in order to cope with political shocks. This does not mean giving up the demand for fundamental rights such as new parliamentary elections on the basis of a new law and a broad campaign to prosecute the corrupt and restore looted public funds. But pragmatism is important, and pragmatism at this stage requires protecting the uprising from Hezbollah’s weapons and any bid to collapse state institutions.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and president of the Beirut Institute