هل تشن إسرائيل حرباً إستباقية على لبنان/يورا إيلاند من يديعوت أحرونوت: من هو عدو إسرائيل الحقيقي/Giora Eiland/Ynetnews: Who is Israel’s true enemy/إسرائيل هاريل/هآرتس: الهجوم الإسرائيلي الوقائي ضرورة ملزمة/Israel Harel/Haaretz: A Preemptive Attack Is a Must/إسرائيل هاريل من الهآرتس: الهجوم الإسرائيلي الوقائي ضرورة ملزمة/Sever Plocker: Israel must kick its pointless Nasrallah addiction/سيفر بلوكر من يديعوت أحرونوت: على إسرائيل أن تستفيق من أدمانها العبثي على حسن نصر الله
Who is Israel’s true enemy? جيورا إيلاند/صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت: من هو عدو إسرائيل الحقيقي Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/September 06/2019 الكاتب يرى أن لبنان العدو ويجب القيام بهجمات وقائية ضده ما لم يلجم انشطة حزب الله
هل تشن إسرائيل حرباً إستباقية على لبنان؟ روسيا اليوم/الجمعة 06 أيلول 2019
Opinion/A Preemptive Attack Is a Must Israel Harel/Haaretz/September 06/2019 إسرائيل هاريل/هآرتس: الهجوم الإسرائيلي الوقائي ضرورة ملزمة
Israel must kick its pointless Nasrallah addiction Ynetnews/Sever Plocker/September 06/2019
سيفر بلوكر من يديعوت أحرونوت: على إسرائيل أن تستفيق من أدمانها العبثي على حسن نصر الله
=================================== Who is Israel’s true enemy? جيورا إيلاند/من يديعوت أحرونوت: من هو عدو إسرائيل الحقيقي Giora Eiland/Ynetnews/September 06/2019 الكاتب يرى أن لبنان العدو ويجب القيام بهجمات وقائية ضده ما لم يلجم انشطة حزب الله
Opinion: Following the recent attack in Avivim, Jerusalem must send a clear message to Lebanese authorities that it will not tolerate Hezbollah acquiring precision missiles
Hezbollah’s attack at the beginning of the week, naturally has kept politicians, the public and the media busy. Much has been said about the attack and the willingness to divulge any kind of details about it.
There are however two more urgent and strategic issues that the cabinet, current one or otherwise, will have to not only discuss, but make serious decisions about.
The first issue is the question “Who is the enemy?” Our tendency is to point to Hezbollah or its patron, Iran. That’s what we did in 2006 and that’s how we work today.
That, in fact, is the way in which Israel has been pushing more and more countries to declare Hezbollah a terror organization.
The other option, which is the right one in my opinion, is to declare Lebanon as the enemy.
Lebanon is not just the country that gets hit by collateral damage when we attack a Hezbollah target, it should be the official enemy.
One could argue either way, but this topic merits a clear strategic decision that would dictate both a military and political course of action.
Political action isn’t propaganda; political action is, for example, convincing the United States to make it clear to the Lebanese government, that if they don’t stop the Hezbollah push for precision-guided missiles, the U.S. will impose harsher and harsher economic sanctions on Beirut.
The second and more important issue on the table is whether Israel should start a preemptive war in Lebanon.
It is important to differentiate between a preemptive attack and a forward counterstrike.
A forward counterattack is done by a country that knows an enemy is about to initiate an attack within days, and then attacks first in order to disrupt the enemy’s opening move.
Israel did it in 1967, and considered doing the same in 1973 at the behest of then-Chief of Staff David Elazar, but refrained at the last minute.
A preemptive war is something completely different, its when one side declares war on unwilling enemy. Its purpose is to hurt the enemy’s current or future arming abilities.
The 2003 Iraqi-American war was a preemptive one, or at least, that’s how George W. Bush presented it to the world.
Most Israeli politicians are adamant Israel won’t be able to deal with a situation in which Hezbollah has hundreds, or thousands of precisions- guided missiles.
The argument is that if a future war will break out, not only will Israel’s infrastructure suffer unbearable damage, the Israel Air Force’s ability to operate efficiently will suffer greatly.
Indeed, it would be best if we can sabotage any dangerous future developments with a few precise covert actions.
But what if the final conclusion would be that, in order to thwart such a threat, we need to initiate a massive, open attack on several high priority targets right now? The answer is seemingly clear – but not necessarily.
For years Israel existed with the looming threat of a massive number of chemical weapons in Syria – weapons Syria could’ve used on dozens of Scud missiles to reach every corner of Israel.
There were a few singular votes that argued that it’s not possible to live in the shadow of such a constant threat, and so, a preemptive war against Syria would be the right thing to do.
Israel avoided taking such measures, and the arsenal of chemical weapons and Scud missiles is mostly gone. There are a lot of differences between this old threat and the new one brewing in Lebanon, and so, this is a concrete issue and not just one based on principle.
If and when we understand that we can’t guarantee the termination of the precision-guided missiles project in any other way, would a preemptive war be the right course of action?
Opinion/A Preemptive Attack Is a Must Israel Harel/Haaretz/September 06/2019 إسرائيل هاريل/هآرتس: الهجوم الإسرائيلي الوقائي ضرورة ملزمة
Contrary to the message that the IDF and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are conveying, the last battle concluded with a victory for a Hezbollah in terms of deterrence and psychological warfare. Hezbollah fired Kornet anti-tank missiles and Israel responded in the north as it has responded for the past 14 years in the south: With a useless bombardment of open areas. The helicopters called into action were also deliberately prevented from hitting the missile launchers.
The “crushing counter-blow” that Netanyahu threatened was, once again, a dummy strike. And the same goes for the childish “deception exercise.”
Israel’s acceptance of the Kornet fire has enabled Nasrallah (and his patrons) to conclude that the years’-long policy of containment in the south now applies to the north as well. In other words, the decision of when to open fire and when to hold fire will be up to Hezbollah, just as it is with Hamas.
Is it any wonder that Nasrallah was quick to declare, “we have no more red lines?”
Hezbollah knows full well that it cannot seize territory within Israel and stay there. And that it certainly cannot seize its ultimate desire: Jerusalem. Therefore, arming itself with more than 100,000 missiles has one purpose only:
widespread killing and destruction. No other country in the world is under such a threat; no other country in the world has a government and army that have fallen asleep on their watch and allowed terrorist organizations in the south, and even more so in the north, to arm themselves with such an abundance of missiles.
Only now, after it let Hezbollah build up this balance of terror against us, does the IDF remember to declare that it is determined to prevent Hezbollah from arming its missiles with precise navigation systems. What about the hundreds of missiles that have already been armed this way? What about the hundred thousand “dumb” missiles that could, without precise navigation, sow unprecedented death and destruction?
Iran has no intention of dispatching its army to conquer Israel. It does have a burning desire, as it has publicly proclaimed numerous times, “to destroy the Zionist state,” i.e., to annihilate as many Jews as possible.
However, the moment it launches missiles at us, Tehran will be laid waste, and Iran’s leaders know this. And Tehran is deterred. But when its emissaries, such as Hezbollah, launch missiles, at its orders and with its funding, thousands of missiles whose purpose is to destroy Israel, it does not worry that Tehran will be wiped off the map. Or Beirut for that matter. As long as this is Israel’s policy – Iran will keep on arming Hezbollah (and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza), in advance of the day when it will give the order to realize its objective.
Those who oppose the use of force in order to prevent, by means of a preemptive strike, the fulfillment of this evil plot, are only increasing the number of future victims there will be when Tehran’s proxies land the first blow. Nasrallah, like Yahya Sinwar, is acquiring and upgrading missiles while he awaits orders from Tehran.
And when the time is chosen (for these organizations are always the ones that get to choose the timing of the opening shot, as well as the timing of the end of the fighting), Israel will come under a massive missile barrage that can only partially be intercepted by its Iron Dome and Arrow missile systems. Yes, an offensive action would not be able to prevent the launching of painful reprisal attacks, but when we hold the initiative, the number of casualties and extent of the damage can be significantly reduced.
Only a credible and unequivocal proclamation by Israel that Tehran will also be destroyed even if “only” its proxies launch missiles of death and destruction at us can make the Ayatollahs’ regime rein in its emissaries. This is the challenge awaiting Israel as soon as the next government is formed.
هل تشن إسرائيل حرباً إستباقية على لبنان؟ روسيا اليوم/الجمعة 06 أيلول 2019
اعتبر الكاتب الإسرائيلي، جيورا إيلاند، في مقال رأي عبر صحيفة “يديعوت أحرونوت”، أن عدو إسرائيل الحقيقي ليس “حزب الله” بل لبنان، متحدثا عن أهمية أن تخوض إسرائيل حربا وقائية ضده. وسأل إيلاند، من هو عدو إسرائيل الحقيقي؟ ليجيب أنه بعد الهجوم الأخير في أفيفيم، يجب أن ترسل “تل أبيب” رسالة واضحة إلى السلطات اللبنانية بأنها لن تتسامح مع “حزب الله” في الحصول على صواريخ دقيقة، لافتا إلى أن الهجوم شغل السياسيين والجمهور ووسائل الإعلام للكشف عن تفاصيله. وتابع الكاتب، قائلا إن الجواب على سؤال “من هو العدو؟” يدفعنا حكما للإشارة إلى “حزب الله” وإيران من ورائه، وهذا ما فعلناه في العام 2006 وهو ما نفعله اليوم أيضا، لكن الواقع يفيد بأن هذا الجواب تستخدمه إسرائيل كطريقة لدفع المزيد من الدول لإعلان “حزب الله” منظمة إرهابية. “الخيار الصحيح في رأيي، هو إعلان لبنان عدوا”، بحسب قول إيلاند، الذي شدد على أن لبنان لا يجب أن يتعرض لأضرار جانبية عندما تهاجم إسرائيل “حزب الله” فحسب، بل يجب أن يكون العدو الرسمي. وأضاف أن هذا الموضوع يستحق قرارا استراتيجيا واضحا يوضح المسارين العسكري والسياسي للعمل في هذا السياق، وتابع أن العمل السياسي ليس دعاية، بل هو أن تقنع إسرائيل الولايات المتحدة، بأن توضح للحكومة اللبنانية، أنه إذا لم يوقف “حزب الله” الضغط من أجل الحصول على صواريخ دقيقة، فستفرض الولايات المتحدة عقوبات اقتصادية أشد وأقسى على بيروت. من جهة أخرى، اعتبر إيلاند أن المسألة الأكثر أهمية هي ما إذا كان ينبغي لإسرائيل أن تبدأ حربا وقائية ضد لبنان، وتعريف هذه الحرب برأي إيلاند هو “عندما يعلن أحد الطرفين الحرب على عدو غير راغب، والغرض من ذلك هو إيذاء قدرات تسليح العدو الحالية أو المستقبلية”. ولفت الكاتب إلى أن معظم السياسيين الإسرائيليين يصرون على أن إسرائيل لن تكون قادرة على التعامل مع موقف يكون فيه لـ “حزب الله” مئات أو آلاف الصواريخ الموجهة بدقة، وأنه إذا اندلعت حرب مستقبلية، فلن تعاني البنية التحتية الإسرائيلية من ضرر كبير فحسب، بل إن قدرة سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي على العمل بكفاءة ستعاني بشدة، وبالتالي سيكون من الأفضل أن تتمكن إسرائيل من تخريب أي تطورات مستقبلية خطيرة مع بعض الإجراءات السرية المحددة.
وسأل إيلاند، ماذا لو كان الاستنتاج النهائي هو أنه من أجل إحباط مثل هذا التهديد، نحتاج إلى بدء هجوم كبير ومفتوح على عدة أهداف ذات أولوية عالية الآن؟ وفي معرض جوابه، أشار الكاتب إلى أنه لطالما كانت إسرائيل موجودة في ظل تهديد وشيك لعدد كبير من الأسلحة الكيميائية في سوريا، التي يمكن أن تستخدم على عشرات صواريخ سكود للوصول إلى أي مكان في إسرائيل، مشيرا إلى أن هناك الكثير من الاختلافات بين هذا التهديد القديم والتهديد الجديد في لبنان، حيث أن هذه مسألة ملموسة وليست مجرد قضية قائمة بالمبدأ.
وختم الكاتب متسائلا: “هل ستكون الحرب الاستباقية أو الوقائية هي المسار الصحيح للعمل في حال لم تستطع إسرائيل ضمان إنهاء مشروع الصواريخ الموجهة بدقة لحزب الله؟”.
Israel must kick its pointless Nasrallah addiction Ynetnews/Sever Plocker/September 06/2019 سيفر بلوكر من يديعوت أحرونوت: على إسرائيل أن تستفيق من أدمانها العبثي على حسن نصر الله Opinion: Let’s put things in perspective: A few tunnels dug under the border and a device used in the production of precision missiles that was just lying about in some courtyard do not indicate there is some superior strategy in play on the part of Hezbollah
It is time for Israel to free itself of the dark spell cast by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. For years his likeness stared out from television screens and Israelis hung on his every word as if they were celestial utterances of a man who always delivers on his promises, despite facts to the contrary, but still mountains of analysis are piled up after each one of his speeches. The truth of the matter is that Nasrallah has never spoken the truth. Granted, he is good at making threats, but not so good at carrying them out. In the final tally, his achievements and those of the organization he leads are light years away from his promises and dreams. For the past 15 years, the Shi’ite leader has been confined to a bunker, surrounded by guards and living on borrowed time courtesy of Israel – probably because it is preferable to keep him in a cage rather than having his replacement running free. As a virtual leader, Nasrallah devotes his ample free time to political plotting. The Hezbollah party is increasing its hold on Lebanon, seizing more and more important positions in a failing political structure, taking advantage of a weakening country, its public’s apathy and its political parties’ leniency. But that is a Lebanese tragedy not an Israeli one. And only the Lebanese can put an end to it. Let us put things in perspective. A few tunnels dug under the border with Israel, and a device used in the production of precision missiles that was just lying about in some courtyard in the sun do not superior strategy make. Nor is a single attack on a military vehicle that mistakenly appeared on the wrong road a fitting response to an Israeli attack in the heart of Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut. The Iran-backed terror group was beaten badly in the 2006 Second Lebanon War and Nasrallah was forced to accept humiliating ceasefire terms. Due to successive Lebanese governments being unable to govern, those terms were never fully enforced and both the West and Israel had no interest in the small country’s disintegration. Remember when Nasrallah threated to launch missiles at ammonia stores near Haifa and cause more death and destruction than a nuclear bomb? Well the Israeli media carried every word he uttered about, despite his ignorance of both chemistry and physics.
Hezbollah entered the cruel civil in Syria on the side of the murderous regime, thereby losing what was left of any Arab support for his cause outside Lebanon. But Israel is warned not to offend Nasrallah’s honor. What honor is that precisely? Not only were Hezbollah fighters unhelpful to Assad in the war he waged against his own people, they kept getting in the way as they sustained heavy losses and ultimately fled back to Lebanon with their proverbial tail between their legs. When Hitler threatened Poland in the summer of 1939, making use of psychological warfare, he had the strength of the entire German army behind him. Behind Nasrallah is only the wall of his bunker and a background photo prepared for his next televised speech. Israel really does need to kick its embarrassing habit of taking Hassan Nasrallah seriously
