Normal ties between Iran and US unlikely despite nuclear deal By REUTERS/J.Post/10/02/2015
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UNITED NATIONS- Iran is unlikely to normalize relations with the United States despite a landmark nuclear deal reached with America and other major powers and the first handshake between a US president and a high-ranking Iranian official in more than 30 years. Pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, whose 2013 election paved the way for Iran’s diplomatic thaw with the West, has signaled his willingness to improve ties with “the Great Satan” and to discuss the regional crisis with the United States. But analysts and officials say this improvement will go no further than an exchange of intelligence between the two nations through back-channels and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has no intention of restoring diplomatic ties. In a dramatic shift in tone between Iran and the United States, President Barack Obama and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif shook hands at the United Nations on Monday. An Iranian official said it “was not preplanned.” But Iran’s most powerful authority who has the last say on all state matters, including relations with Washington, is Khamenei and not Rouhani. Khamenei has continued to denounce the United States publicly, suggesting that antagonism prevailing between Iran and the United States since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Tehran will not abate because of the nuclear deal. Iran and the United States severed diplomatic ties shortly after the revolution.
“How can you trust your long-time enemy? How can you do business with a partner you don’t trust? We trust American people but not their government. And the deal has not changed it,” said a senior, hard-line security official in Tehran. “Real believers in Iran’s revolution and its pillars and followers of our late leader (Ayatollah Ruhollah) Khomeini will never accept it.” Khamenei has backed Rouhani’s efforts to reach the deal, under which Iran will curb its nuclear work in return for the lifting of sanctions which have severely damaged the economy. “But he will never accept normalization of ties with America,” a senior Iranian diplomat, who declined to be named, said. “For the leader it is just a non-negotiable red line.” Khamenei’s hard-line loyalists, drawn from among Islamists and Revolutionary Guards, fear that normalization of ties with the United States might weaken their position.”Restoring ties with the United States, which Rouhani and his camp are in favor of, poses an existential threat to hard-liners. If it happens, Rouhani’s power and popularity will surpass Khamenei’s,” said political analyst Hamid Farahvashian.
PRESERVING BALANCE
But Khamenei, since taking over in 1989 from Khomeini, has been adept at ensuring that no group, even hard-liners, gain enough momentum to challenge the power of the Islamic Republic’s second supreme leader. “The leader strongly believes in America’s devilish intentions. He will never approve normalization of ties with America,” said a Khamenei relative, who asked not to be named. Easing economic sanctions and ending Iran’s isolation will bolster Rouhani’s position within Iran’s complex power structure, analysts said. Iranians could reward pro-Rouhani candidates at the ballot box in February elections for parliament and for the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body with nominal power over the supreme leader, analysts say. A senior US official said that Khamenei was “very savvy” about holding on to the power that he has. “Iran has politics … I think he lets those politics play out. The revolution is still very present in that country and the tenets of that revolution,” US lead nuclear negotiator and under-secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, said. Some analysts argued that Rouhani was not seeking normalization of ties. “At best, it amounts to détente,” said senior Iran analyst Ali Vaez from International Crisis Group. “For Ayatollah Khamenei the nuclear accord was purely transactional, not transformational … Neither President Rouhani nor any other actor in the Islamic Republic will be able to successfully challenge this vision.”
EXCHANGE OF INTELLIGENCE
However, Iran and the United States will continue to cooperate through back-channels on regional issues aimed at reducing conflict in the Middle East, officials and analysts say. “We cannot expect embassies to be reopened in Tehran and Washington … but we will continue to share information about Iraq, Syria and other regional common interests. We have done it in the past,” said an Iranian official, who asked not to be named. Tehran and Washington have common interests and threats across the Middle East and they have cooperated tactically in the past, including when Iran helped the United States to counter al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Islamic State in Iraq. Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews, said, “There will be more informal exploration of collaboration on a case-by-case basis before normalizing relations is given serious consideration.” Iran continues to support Islamist militant groups such as Hezbollah, a close ally — like Iran — of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his war with rebels trying to overthrow him. “One of those issues where we disagree very strongly with Iran where it may make sense to have some kind of discussions is Syria,” Sherman said, adding that issues in Syria were “staggeringly complex, difficult and can’t be reduced to a simple answer.” Sherman doubted that relations will improve any time soon. The Iranian official agreed. “Normalization of ties seems impossible at least in the near future. But who knows what will happen in 10 years,” he said.
The military option is back on the table Yaron Brener/Ynetnews/Published: 10.02.15
Analysis: Netanyahu’s message directed to President Obama and the Security Council is to enforce the Iran nuclear deal to the letter otherwise Israel retains its right to defend itself at all cost.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech Thursday at the General Assembly was mainly directed to President Barack Obama and to the leaders of the five permanent members of the Security Council and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Netanyahu’s message focused on how Israel intends to deal with the threat of Iran’s nuclear program, terrorism and subversion.
Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue Netanyahu’s message is clear. You signed an agreement? At least make sure the Iranians respect it to the letter. If you do not, says Netanyahu, we will not let you off so easily. In other words, you, President Obama, David Cameron and Angela Merkel, shirked your responsibility. The agreement is bad, but if you do not enforce it, we shall force you to enforce it.
Netanyahu also explained that he intends to do this through close monitoring and continuous dialogue with the US leadership. In addition, Netanyahu issued an implied threat that Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself.
This statement is designed to bring back the Israeli military option – that is attacking nuclear facilities and missiles in Iran – to the international arena. After the nuclear deal was signed with Iran, many commentators and many Western diplomats actually determined that the Israeli military option was no longer on the table, as Israel would not dare attack Iran after it had signed an agreement limiting its military nuclear project and agreeing to tighter controls on its nuclear program.
Netanyahu told all those commentators from the UN’s podium that the Israeli military option is alive and well, and if necessary will be used. Netanyahu was vague and did not explain under what conditions he intends to use the option, but his message that Israel would not shy away from action under certain conditions was clear.
Netanyahu issued a similar message regarding Iranian terrorism and subversion directed specifically against Israel and the region in general. Netanyahu said that Israel would know how to deal with this matter on its own and he even added a clear indication that he expected the US to help Israel in this matter. Just as he mentioned enforcing the agreement with Iran, Netanyahu was saying that Israel will give reminders and will not allow them to avoid their responsibilities.
He even said it, “to sweep Iran’s aggression and violations under the Persian rug.” We will bother and nag you and if necessary we will act on our own so it is best that you act first. This is the threat which led to the imposition of sanctions on Iran four years ago and Netanyahu used it again Thursday at the UN General Assembly to incentivize the West not to make concessions to the Iranians in any area, whether it be terrorism or their nuclear program.
The rest of the speech contained no novelties. It was rhetoric a la Bibi at its best. He knows the job. The UN is an ideal platform for him as a man of words. It was there where he started his career, and where he gave speeches perhaps only equal the speeches of Abba Eban, our legendary foreign minister.
Yesterday Abbas said in his speech that the Palestinian Authority is no longer committed to its agreements with Israel. Netanyahu replied, but without excessive aggression, probably because he did not want to create additional interest for the Abbas’s speech.
At this UN General Assembly most world leaders preferred pushing the Palestinian issue to the side and Netanyahu, rightly, did not want to emphasize again Abbas’s message on Wednesday, regarding the possibility the PA will suspend its obligations towards Israel. Netanyahu, justifiably, prefers to let Abbas’s words evaporate into the New York air and not undermine his message about Iran.
One can argue that the speech Netanyahu delivered was a sober one from an Israeli statesman, pragmatic and not ideological, which reminded the world of its moral duty towards Israel in connection with the Iranian nuclear threat.
