Israel and Hezbollah aren’t in a position to enter war, unless compelled
Dr. Walid Phares
In an interview with France 24 Dr Walid Phares said “the cycle of violence between Hezbollah and Israel is locked in an equation whereby each side has to strike back if hit by the opponent. Though it could spiral into a full blow war, as were the cases in 1996 and 2006, the present geopolitical conditions on both sides, particularly Hezbollah, do not encourage decision-makers to trigger that wider confrontation. Hezbollah is deployed on various battlefields inside Syria and on the Lebanese Syrian borders locked in tough military confrontations with ISIS and al Nusra and is also involved in Iraq.
Opening another front with Israel, at a time the Iranian-backed organization has lost a large segment of Lebanese and Arab support, may present risks for Hezbollah. Iran is tempted to produce skirmishes with Israel for propaganda purposes but it has discovered that ISIS and Nusra aren’t moved by Iranian and Hezbollah attempts to claim a main role in ‘fighting Zionism.’ Plus geopolitical reality may force Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria in the case of a war with Israel, a matter the Iranians refuse to execute.”
Phares added that Israel’s Government also doesn’t seem to want a full scale confrontation on Lebanese or Syrian soil mainly because they aren’t sure of the Obama Administration’s response to such a potential war. Israel’s Prime Minister has a greater interest in addressing the US public via the US Congress on Iran than getting bogged down by a Hezbollah cycle of clashes. Hence each side will continue what they have been doing at this point. Hezbollah will continue its war in Syria and Israel will continue to target Iranian shipments to Hezbollah crossing Syria. Odd but real…