English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 17/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus, ooked at him and said, ‘You are Simon son of John. You are to be called Cephas’ (which is translated Peter).”
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 01/35-42:”The next day John again was standing with two of his disciples, and as he watched Jesus walk by, he exclaimed, ‘Look, here is the Lamb of God! ’The two disciples heard him say this, and they followed Jesus. When Jesus turned and saw them following, he said to them, ‘What are you looking for?’ They said to him, ‘Rabbi’ (which translated means Teacher), ‘where are you staying?’He said to them, ‘Come and see.’ They came and saw where he was staying, and they remained with him that day. It was about four o’clock in the afternoon. One of the two who heard John speak and followed him was Andrew, Simon Peter’s brother. He first found his brother Simon and said to him, ‘We have found the Messiah’ (which is translated Anointed). He brought Simon to Jesus, who looked at him and said, ‘You are Simon son of John. You are to be called Cephas’ (which is translated Peter).”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 16-17/2022
Lebanese Parliamentary Elections
LADE reports 'flagrant violations' in Sunday's elections
US welcomes Lebanon elections, calls on politicians to ‘rescue’ the economy
Lebanon Vote Brings Blow for Hezbollah Allies in Preliminary Results
Mawlawi announces some final results, says no ballot boxes missing
Miqati urges swift political action after parliament elections
Hariri: Withdrawal decision was correct and it shook dysfunctional structures
Lebanon awaits results of first vote since multiple crises
Early results: Hizbullah, allies suffer some election losses
Sunday's vote early results: LF, independents make significant gains
Will Hizbullah, allies win majority in new parliament?
Lebanon’s failure is part of regional shift for the worse/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May 16/2022
EPORT: 2022 Conference for a Free Lebanon … Policy strategies to liberate Lebanon from Iran’s occupation and disarm Hezbollah militia

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 16-17/2022
Iran's Top Negotiator: Countries Seek to Neutralize Effects of Sanctions
Paris Warns of Consequences of Not Signing Nuclear Deal
Iran Says Awaits US Response to Nuclear Talks 'Solutions'
Turkey’s Erdogan says will not approve Sweden and Finland joining NATO
Sweden to Try to Overcome Turkish Objections to its NATO Bid
Russia using mercenaries to replace troop losses in Ukraine: US analysts
EU’s Russia Sanctions Effort Slows over Oil Dependency
Russia Won’t Simply Put Up with NATO’s Nordic Expansion, Ryabkov Says
Egypt: Opposition Parties Coordinate Demands to Achieve Political Reform
Palestinian Authority Appeals to US to Stop Car Cable Project in Jerusalem
Taliban dissolve Afghanistan's Human Rights Commission, other key bodies
Joint declaration following the third EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee meeting
Canada/Minister Joly concludes trip to Germany and Belgium

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 16-17/2022
A Long, Painful Transitional Period Towards New Maps and Countries/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
A Long, Painful Transitional Period Towards New Maps and Countries/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
Biden Can Do Much More to Fight Inflation/Matthew Yglesias/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
Biden must decide what ‘victory’ in Ukraine means — and if he’ll do what it takes to win it/John Bolton/New York Post/May 16/2022
Bill Gates’s Pandemic Prevention Plan Has a China-Sized Blind Spot/Anthony Ruggiero/Foreign Policy/May 16/2022
Ahead of Biden's expected visit to Israel/Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/May 16/2022
Frightened Russia... Dreadful Russia/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 16-17/2022
Lebanese Parliamentary Elections
LCCC/May 16/2022
The parliamentary voting process in Iranian-occupied Lebanon although has ended yesterday at 7 PM, the final results in many electoral jurisdictions are not yet officially declared. It is strongly believed that forging is still going on in many polls in a bid to secure Hezbollah's mercenaries' winning in Jounia, Bekaa, south, north, Tripoli etc. It remains that occupation can not be faced through democracy and in particular via elections. Up till this evening, Hezbollah and its mercenaries won 61 seats and the rest distributed on anti Hezbollah parties and groups including 15 seats to the revolutionists.

LADE reports 'flagrant violations' in Sunday's elections
Associated Press/Monday, 16 May, 2022
The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections, LADE, which was monitoring the parliamentary elections, said Monday it has registered many irregularities and violations during the polls. LADE said its members were threatened and attacked by several groups, mostly in areas controlled by Hizbullah and Amal. "Flagrant violations, intimidation and pressures were made by several political parties," LADE said, as it accused the Ministry of Interior of showing "laxity" in enforcing the law. Voter turnout was said to be at 41% — less than the 49% in the last election. Official results are expected to be announced later Monday. Lebanon holds elections every four years and the new parliament will elect a new president after Aoun’s term ends in October.

US welcomes Lebanon elections, calls on politicians to ‘rescue’ the economy
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/16 May ,2022
The US said Monday that it welcomed the Lebanese elections, which were held on time “without major security incidents,” but called on Beirut to implement needed reforms. “As we await official elections observers’ reports we encourage the country’s political leaders to recommit to passing and implementing necessary laws and reforms to rescue the economy,” the State Department said on Twitter. Parliamentary elections were held across Lebanon on Sunday, one week after the Lebanese diaspora voted abroad. While the final results have not been released, preliminary results show Iran-backed Hezbollah and its Christian allies, the Free Patriotic Movement, losing their outright majority in the parliament. The pro-Iran bloc will still be one of the leading powers inside Lebanon’s lawmaking chamber, but the Lebanese Forces appear to now be the largest Christian bloc. Meanwhile, several new faces, including members of the civil society, broke into the ranks for the first time. The first major task in front of the new parliament will be to elect a speaker ahead of October’s presidential election. The World Bank has said that Lebanon’s financial crisis is one of the worst the world has seen in over 150 years. And officials have yet to implement badly needed reforms to unlock economic aid from the international community, World Bank and IMF.

Lebanon Vote Brings Blow for Hezbollah Allies in Preliminary Results
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Iran-backed Hezbollah has been dealt a blow in Lebanon's parliamentary election with preliminary results showing losses for some of its oldest allies and the Lebanese Forces party saying it had gained seats. With votes still being counted, the final make-up of the 128-member parliament has yet to emerge. The heavily armed Shiite party Hezbollah and its allies won a majority of 71 seats when Lebanon last voted in 2018. The current election is the first since Lebanon's devastating economic meltdown blamed by the World Bank on ruling politicians after a huge port explosion in 2020 that shattered Beirut. One of the most startling upsets saw Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan, scion of one of Lebanon's oldest political dynasties who was first elected in 1992, lose his seat to Mark Daou, a newcomer running on a reform agenda, according to the latter's campaign manager and a Hezbollah official. Initial results also indicated wins for at least five other independents who have campaigned on a platform of reform and bringing to account politicians blamed for steering Lebanon into the worst crisis since its 1975-90 civil war. Gains reported by the Lebanese Forces (LF), which is vehemently opposed to Hezbollah, mean it would overtake the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) as the biggest Christian party in parliament. The LF won at least 20 seats, up from 15 in 2018, said the head of its press office, Antoinette Geagea. The FPM had won up to 16 seats, down from 18 in 2018, Sayed Younes, the head of its electoral machine, told Reuters. The FPM has been the biggest Christian party in parliament since its founder, President Michel Aoun, returned from exile in 2005 in France. Aoun and LF leader Samir Geagea were civil war adversaries. The LF, established as a militia during Lebanon's 15-year civil war, has repeatedly called for Hezbollah to give up its arsenal.
'A new beginning'
An opposition candidate also made a breakthrough in an area of southern Lebanon dominated by Hezbollah. Elias Jradi, an eye doctor, won an Orthodox Christian seat previously held by Assaad Hardan of the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, a close Hezbollah ally and MP since 1992, two Hezbollah officials said. "It’s a new beginning for the south and for Lebanon as a whole," Jradi told Reuters. Nadim Houry, executive director of Arab Reform Initiative, said the results of 14 or 15 seats would determine the majority. "You are going to have two blocs opposed to each other - on the one hand Hezbollah and its allies, and on the other the Lebanese Forces and its allies, and in the middle these new voices that will enter," he said. "This is a clear loss for the FPM. They maintain a bloc but they lost a lot of seats and the biggest beneficiary is the Lebanese Forces. Samir Geagea has emerged as the new Christian strongman." The next parliament must nominate a prime minister to form a cabinet, in a process that can take months. Any delay would hold up reforms to tackle the crisis and unlock support from the International Monetary Fund and donor nations.

Mawlawi announces some final results, says no ballot boxes missing
Naharnet/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi on Monday announced the officials results of parliamentary elections in seven electoral districts, as the counting of votes continued in the remaining districts.“We have managed to organize the elections in a very good way despite the difficulties,” Mawlawi said at a press conference. “Voter turnout was good and not low compared to the previous elections,” he added. The Minister had announced a voter turnout of 41.04% after the closure of polls on Sunday. “The allegations about the disappearance of some ballot boxes are baseless,” he added.Commenting on media reports that a ballot box coming from Germany has gone missing, Mawlawi said: “Box 18 from Germany was not lost and it was handed to the Justice Palace in Beirut… but it turned out that it contained no votes from the Beirut I district.”Separately, Mawlawi said it is not true that some votes were counted during a power outage in Beirut. Below are the names of the winners as announced by the minister: - Baabda: Ali Ammar, Pierre Bou Assi, Alain Aoun, Camille Chamoun, Fadi Alameh and Hadi Abu al-Hoson-
West Bekaa/Rashaya: Qabalan Qabalan, Wael Abu Faour, Hassan Mrad, Yassine Yassine, Charbel Maroun and Ghassan Skaff
- Baalbek/Hermel: Antoine Habshi, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, Ghazi Zoaiter, Ihab Hamadeh, Ali al-Mokdad, Ibrahim al-Moussawi, Jamil al-Sayyed, Samer al-Toum, Yanal Mohammed Solh and Melhem Mohammed al-Hujeiri
- Zahle: Michel Daher, Georges Okais, Elias Estephan, Bilal al-Hshaymi, Salim Aoun, Rami Abu Hamdan and Georges Boujikian
- Jbeil/Keserwan: Ziad Hawwat, Raed Berro, Nada al-Bustani, Neemat Frem, Shawki al-Daccache, Farid al-Khazen, Salim al-Sayegh and Simon Abi Ramia in the Keserwan-Jbeil district
- Sidon-Jezzine: Abdul Rahman al-Bizri, Osama Saad, Saeed al-Asmar, Charbel Masaad and Ghada Ayyoub
- Tyre/Zahrani: Nabih Berri, Hussein Jishi, Ali Khreis, Enaya Ezzeddine, Ali Osseiran and Michel Moussa

Miqati urges swift political action after parliament elections
Associated Press/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati urged Monday groups and independents who will be represented in the new parliament to move quickly “because what we are passing through cannot withstand (political) bickering at the expense of priorities.” Miqati was apparently referring to consultations that are expected to begin soon to name a new prime minister whose government’s main mission will be to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund to work on getting Lebanon out of its paralyzing economic crisis. The legislature will have to draft new laws related to the economic crisis, such as a capital control law. In a sign of the difficulties lying ahead, the value of the Lebanese pound dropped by 3% on Monday reaching 28,300 to the U.S. dollar.

Hariri: Withdrawal decision was correct and it shook dysfunctional structures
Naharnet/Monday, 16 May, 2022 
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri announced Monday after Lebanon’s parliamentary elections that the country is before “a new crossroads.”“The elections ended and the country is before a new crossroads. Real victory is the introduction of new blood into political life,” Hariri said in a tweet.
“Our decision to withdraw (from elections and political life) was correct. It shook the structures of political dysfunction and it does not mean that we have given up our responsibilities,” the former premier added. “We will remain where we are, carrying Rafik Hariri’s dream and opening our hearts and houses to people. We ask God to protect Lebanon,” Hariri went on to say. His remarks come shortly after independents, including those from the 2019 protest movement, scooped up a significant number of seats in the new parliament, a major achievement considering they went into the vote fragmented and facing intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. Their showing sends a strong message to ruling class politicians who have held on to their seats despite a devastating economic collapse that has plunged the majority of the country into poverty.

Lebanon awaits results of first vote since multiple crises
Agence France Presse/Monday, 16 May, 2022
The results of Lebanon's first elections since multiple crises ravaged the country were expected Monday, with opposition groups hoping for modest but unprecedented gains. According to provisional turnout figures, 41 percent of Lebanon's 3.9 million registered voters cast a ballot Sunday in 12 hours of polling that saw several irregularities and minor incidents. A new generation of independent candidates hopes to kindle the kind of change that a 2019 protest movement failed to deliver, and looked likely to do better than the single assembly seat they clinched last time. But most of parliament's 128 seats are expected to remain in the grip of the entrenched groups blamed for the country's woes -- chiefly the economic downturn that plunged most of Lebanon into poverty. For many voters, the election was a chance to vent their anger at the hereditary ruling elite that an October 2019 uprising, the country's financial default and a cataclysmic 2020 explosion in the heart of the capital failed to remove. "These elections are first and foremost a means of rooting out this political class and getting back our Lebanon," said Shadi, a 38-year-old whose flat was destroyed in the Beirut blast, declining to give his second name. Like many others who posted pictures on social media Sunday, he chose to dip his middle figure in the bottle of electoral blue ink after casting his ballot.
- Status quo -
Lebanon shares power among its religious communities, and politics is often treated as a family business. By convention, the president is a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker a Shiite. The outgoing parliament was dominated by the Shiite movement Hizbullah and its two main allies, the Shiite Amal party of Speaker Nabih Berri, who has held the job since 1992, and President Michel Aoun's Christian Free Patriotic Movement. Preliminary results from the Sunday election indicate that traditional parties will prevail. But despite limited resources, opposition groups seemed optimistic about their results. In the South III district, a stronghold for Hizbullah and its allies, a breakthrough was reported. "It seems almost impossible to imagine Lebanon voting for more of the same," said Sam Heller, an analyst with the Century Foundation. "And yet, that appears to be the likeliest outcome."
One of the most notable changes in the electoral landscape is the absence of former prime minister Saad Hariri, which leaves parts of the Sunni vote up for grabs by new players. Supporters of Hariri skipped elections and, in Beirut, some set up inflatable swimming pools to show their boycott of the vote. Scuffles broke out in a handful of locations during voting and party supporters were seen shepherding people to polling stations, a recurring practice amid widespread vote-buying. In a bankrupt country which can only supply two daily hours of mains electricity to its inhabitants, one of the main challenges facing the interior ministry was powering polling centers. Despite government assurances, several outages were reported and in some polling stations, voters had to use the flashlights on their mobile phones to find the slot in the ballot box. "Even if hopes of success are small, we voted to show them that they are not alone in the country," said 32-year-old Jad Abdel Karim, who voted in South Lebanon."We want to build a country even if it will take time."

Early results: Hizbullah, allies suffer some election losses
Associated Press/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Hizbullah and its allies appear to have suffered some losses in this weekend's parliamentary elections, with their opponents gaining more seats and some of their traditional partners not making it into the legislature, early results showed Monday. Despite the apparent setback, Hizbullah and its main Shiite ally, the Amal group of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, are likely to retain the 27 seats allocated to the sect. It was not clear, however, whether the Iran-backed group and its allies would hang on to the majority they have held since 2018, when they had 71 of the 128 seats in parliament. Meanwhile, independents, including those from the 2019 protest movement, scooped up at least 10 seats, a major achievement considering they went into the vote fragmented and facing intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. Their showing sends a strong message to ruling class politicians who have held on to their seats despite a devastating economic collapse that has plunged the majority of the country into poverty. The mixed bag ensures a sharply polarized parliament with lawmakers who will likely find it difficult to work together to pass the laws needed to begin the financial recovery and support a government with enormous challenges that lie ahead. With votes still being counted, unofficial results showed Hizbullah’s Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, losing ground to its traditional Christian rivals, the rightwing Lebanese Forces headed by Samir Geagea. The Saudi-backed Christian Lebanese Forces party, which has been among the most vocal critics of Hizbullah, says it won at least 20 seats, adding five members from the 2018 vote. This would make it the largest Christian bloc in parliament, replacing the Free Patriotic Movement that was founded by President Michel Aoun and has been a Hizbullah ally since 2006.
According to early results announced by each of the groups, independents were able to remove several longtime politicians from parliament, including Hizbullah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan who lost to independent candidate Mark Daou. Asaad Hardan, a strong Hizbullah ally in the third district in the South reportedly lost his seat to the independent candidate Elias Jradeh. The closely watched elections on Sunday were the first since a devastating economic crisis erupted in Lebanon in October 2019, triggering nationwide protests against the ruling class blamed for decades of corruption and mismanagement. It was also the first election since the August 2020 Beirut port explosion that killed more than 200 people, injured thousands and destroyed parts of the Lebanese capital. The blast, widely blamed on negligence, was set off by hundreds of tons of poorly stored ammonium nitrate that ignited in a port warehouse. Lebanon holds elections every four years and the new parliament will elect a new president after Aoun's term ends in October.

Sunday's vote early results: LF, independents make significant gains
Naharnet/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Lebanese Democratic Party leader Talal Arslan, Arab Tawhid Party leader Wiam Wahhab, and Assaad Hardan of the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party have lost in Sunday's parliamentary vote, according to early results. Meanwhile, the LF said it won at least 20 seats, adding five members from the 2018 vote. This would make it the largest Christian bloc in parliament, replacing the Free Patriotic Movement. The October 17 forces said they won at least seven seats, three in Beirut II, three in Chouf-Aley and one in South III, with a reported probability of a second breakthrough in the South III. Hardan, a strong Hizbullah ally in the third district in the South reportedly lost his seat to the independent candidate Elias Jradeh, while another independent, Mark Daou, running in the Mount Lebanon region of Aley against longtime Druze politician Talal Arslan, said he's "heading to a big victory."In Beirut II, the list backed by ex-PM Fouad al-Saniora won one seat and the Hizbullah, Amal, FPM list won three seats, while the October 17 forces won at least two seats. The PSP candidate on Saniora's backed list, MP Faisal al-Sayegh, lost his seat to the Druze candidate who ran on MP Fouad Makhzoumi's list. The latter's list won two seats. In Beirut I, the LF have won so far 3 seats, while independent candidate Paula Yaacoubian's list Li Watani won two seats, the FPM won two and the Kataeb two.In Sidon-Jezzine, the LF won 2 seats and the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal lost in an unprecedented defeat in this district.
Ghada Ayyoub (LF), Abdel Rahman al-Bizri, Oussama Saad, Said al Asmar (LF) and independent candidate Charbel Massaad won the highest votes in the district. In Batroun, FPM chief Jebran Bassil maintained his seat while the LF won the second seat by a higher number of votes. In West Bekaa, according to early results, Hassan Murad, Wael Abou Faour, Qabalan Qabalan, Charbel Maroun, independent candidate Yassin Yassin, and Ghassan Skaf will likely win, while Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli will likely lose.In Akkar, the FPM won three seats while ex-Mustaqbal affiliated, MP Hadi Hbeish, has lost. In Tripoli-Minieh-Dinniyeh, Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi's list has won at least 3 seats, for the first time, with one seat to an allied LF candidate, while Faisal Karami's seat is not guaranteed yet. In the Metn district, the Kataeb, the LF, and the FPM have won 2 seats each. Michel Murr and Hagop Pakradounian have also won. In Baadba, the FPM lost one of its past seats to an LF-allied candidate Camille Chamoun of the National Libaral Party (al-Ahrar).

Will Hizbullah, allies win majority in new parliament?
Agence France Presse/Monday, 16 May, 2022
An election in crisis-hit Lebanon appears to have dealt a setback to the biggest bloc, led by Hizbullah, and boosted reformists, provisional results showed Monday. Turnout was low in the general election Sunday, the first since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and graft-tainted ruling class. Many polling booths lacked electricity, forcing voters to use their smartphone lights to cast their ballots, in a reflection of Lebanon's most painful crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. Official results later Monday will show whether Hizbullah and its allies can keep an actionable majority in Lebanon's 128-seat parliament. Hizbullah retained all its seats, but its Christian allies, President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), suffered losses. The Lebanese Forces (LF) of former warlord Samir Geagea, which has strong ties with Saudi Arabia, won several new seats and should emerge as the largest Christian party. New opposition candidates also booked some gains, pushing forward the agenda of a cross-sectarian protest movement that erupted in late 2019 against a ruling elite widely seen as inept and corrupt. Whatever the final election outcome, observers expect months of haggling over the next government line-up, and yet more political paralysis at a time Lebanon needs an IMF bailout. Election turnout was just 41 percent -- eight points lower than in 2018 -- suggesting that the traditional sectarian parties that have shared power like a cartel for three decades failed to mobilize their supporters. "Abstention is partly linked to frustration with the political class and the feeling that the economic situation will not change," said Lebanese analyst Karim Bitar.
- 'Build a country' -
Turnout was particularly low in Sunni Muslim areas, after former premier Saad Hariri triggered a de facto boycott in his community by pulling out of the elections. Some of the politicians most reviled by the reform camp suffered stinging losses, including several MPs who had traditionally represented the interests of neighbor and former occupying force Syria. New opposition parties produced a strong showing in various parts of the country. While the reformists struggled to unite ahead of the vote, they could end up holding enough seats to have an unprecedented impact on the country's political game. A presence of 10 or more lawmakers could disrupt the horse-trading between political barons that has characterized Lebanese politics for decades and leave new reformists in a king making position. One voter who backed opposition candidates, 32-year-old Jad Abdel Karim, said that "even if hopes of success are small, we voted to show them that they are not alone in the country. "We want to build a country even if it will take time."
- Presidential election -
The election was held amid an unprecedented crisis for Lebanon, which defaulted on its debt two years ago, and where the currency has since lost 95 percent of its value. The other major cataclysm suffered by Lebanon was the enormous Beirut port explosion of August 2020 that killed more than 200 people, injured thousands and devastated swathes of the city. Political heavyweights across the party spectrum have obstructed any meaningful investigation into the blast. Two of the main suspects over the disaster, which is widely blamed on state negligence and corruption, even looked sure to have secured re-election in Sunday's polls. Several irregularities in the polling process were reported, as well as scuffles and cases of voter intimidation. The outcome of the vote could have an impact on a presidential election due later this year. President Aoun, 88, has long been expected to be succeeded by his son-in-law, FPM leader Jebran Bassil -- but Bassil's bid suffered a massive blow with the surge of the Lebanese Forces (LF). Marc Saad, an LF spokesman, voiced optimism about the coming electoral battle for the head of state. "We can say that the Lebanese people have punished the governing parties and have aligned with us, expressing their will for a new start in governance," he told AFP.

Lebanon’s failure is part of regional shift for the worse
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May 16/2022
With or without elections, it is difficult to isolate the state of collapse in Lebanon from other developments in the region.
The region is still living in the shadow of the reactions to the Iraqi earthquake caused by the administration of George W Bush in 2003. At that time, the US handed over control of that country to the “Islamic Republic” of Iran. In light of this fateful event at the regional level, collapse is no longer limited to Lebanon, as that country wrestles with an existential crisis.
Failure has become a banner that flutters in the skies of the entire Arab Middle East.
There is almost no longer a place in the region that does not spell failure. At the root of this failure is the absence of any real Arab state in the Levant region, with the exception of Jordan. The Hashemite kingdom possesses a minimum level of internal cohesion and its political leadership is able to absorb the regional balances of power on the one hand and what is going on at the world level on the other.
Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, have each lost their prerequisites for existence. Iraq is a living example of a failed state by all standards, especially after Iran was able to control it as a result of the American war in 2003, a war from which one victor emerged, the “Islamic Republic,” which no longer knows what to do with its Iraqi victory.
Nothing indicates the extent of the Iraqi failure more than Baghdad’s inability to form a new government, to replace the government of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, despite the fact that the parliamentary elections were held last October. The pro-Iranian parties lost those elections. The Islamic Republic refused however to accept its defeat. Iran imposed a political stalemate in Iraq. There is no room in Iraq except for what Iran desires, even if Tehran’s role is rejected by the majority of the Iraqi people.
Instead of Iran investing in good neighbourly relations with Iraq, it invested in its sectarian militias, which operate under the name “Popular Mobilisation Forces.”
In the absence of any breakthrough of any kind for which the Iraqis can hope, there are real fears of an internal implosion. This risk is fuelled by the inability to solve social problems in a country whose treasury earns, every month, more than eleven billion dollars from the sale of oil.
It will be difficult to rebuild Iraq after it became clear that the system in place since 2003 is no better than that of Saddam Hussein's regime, which plunged Iraq into two war adventures, one with Iran and the other with the occupation of Kuwait, two adventures from which he was unable to escape unscathed.
The Iraqi regime is not alone in its unenviable predicament. There is the Syrian regime as well, whose bankruptcy becomes apparent day after day. The recent visit of President Bashar al-Assad to Tehran, where he met the “Supreme Leader” Ali Khamenei, was a reflection of this bankruptcy. The internal situation in Syria is getting worse, while Iran is getting stronger on Syrian soil, despite Israeli strikes.
In Syria, Iran has benefited greatly from Russia's becoming mired in Ukraine. The balance that existed between Tehran and Moscow is no longer there. Russia, which has shown that it can practice savagery in Syria without accountability, withdrew some of its forces from Syria. It did so after it discovered that the Ukraine war was not a picnic, especially in the light of the real resistance shown by the Ukrainians on the one hand and the unexpectedly firm stance of the West.
Bashar al-Assad went to Tehran in order to reactivate the Iranian credit line for Syria that allowed him to buy oil and gas and provide foodstuffs to Syrians living in regime-controlled areas. The “Islamic Republic” asked for a lot in order to reactivate that credit line. But does it have a political design for Syria other than changing the nature of the country’s demographic structure, from a sectarian perspective that suits Tehran, while it controls its resources?
There is total Syrian bankruptcy on all levels. Iran is blackmailing the Syrian regime, whose existence, since 1970, has been conditioned by blackmail. This Syrian bankruptcy is only surpassed by that of Lebanon, which in turn entered the Iranian era, after the assassination of Rafik Hariri in February 2005 as part of the launch of the Iranian expansionist project, immediately after the fall of Iraq.
The assassination of Hariri as a Sunni and Lebanese leader with Arab and international connections cannot be isolated from the Iranian onslaught in the region, which began with the fall of Baghdad. There was a need to eliminate Lebanon. This is what has happened. This explains why the Lebanese state has turned into a land which repels its people, especially after "Hezbollah" became the one who decides who is to be the president of the Republic of Lebanon.
The Lebanese failure, which was further highlighted by the parliamentary elections of May 15, is no longer an orphan failure. These are elections that have not changed anything. They only reveal that Lebanon's failure is part of a regional failure. There are three countries whose fate is at stake in the region, which seems to be on the cusp of major changes, for the worse of course!

تقرير وقائع مؤتمر “من أجل لبنان حر” الذي عقد في 16 نيسان/2022
EPORT: 2022 Conference for a Free Lebanon … Policy strategies to liberate Lebanon from Iran’s occupation and disarm Hezbollah militia
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108688/eport-2022-conference-for-a-free-lebanon-policy-strategies-to-liberate-lebanon-from-irans-occupation-and-disarm-hezbollah-militia/
American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
April 26, 2022
Library of Congress
Members Room
OPENING REMARKS:
John Hajjar, Director for the World Council of the Cedars Revolution and Co-chair for the American Mideast Coalition for Democracy opened the conference by saying unequivocally the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, are evil. By holding this conference and hearing from the many policy makers and politicians involved, we are hoping to give the long-suffering Lebanese people a small measure of hope. We have a full day with five panels, each one hour in length. It is my great pleasure to introduce our first speaker: Congressman Darrell Issa.
Congressman Darrell Issa: It is fitting that this conference is being held in the Congressional Reading Room in the Library of Congress, where every book and every piece of music published in the United States are catalogued ad stored. All the knowledge of the world gathered over the past 225 years is stored here and Congress members are free to access it anytime day or night. One might wonder, then, why Congress members are so ill-educated.
Since 1948, Lebanon has been a democracy in name only and has been subject to foreign interference from one country after another. To make Lebanon a functioning democracy, it needs two things: the rule of law and an absence of corruption for which all groups are responsible: Maronite, Melchite, Druze, Sunni and Shia. Each blames the others for the corruption that is crippling the country. Lebanon needs a functioning bureaucracy which can account for funds – where it comes from and where it goes. Hezbollah is in charge of the country. Any money they pay out either comes from Iran or from Lebanese taxpayers – they are systematically looting the country.
America is supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces including paying the soldiers. We normally provide weaponry, but do not pay soldiers, but in this case an exception was made in order to keep the LAF together as a professional force. This has had bipartisan support. We are not trying to engage Hezbollah ad wipe it out, just provide a national security force other than Hezbollah. The people have to understand they need to unite and quit blaming each other in order to get rid of Hezbollah. The Shi’a need to ask the question why they are still poor. All the confessions in Lebanon need to unite not only against Hezbollah, but against corruption as well. The banking sector has collapsed and corruption harms investment.
Question about the Iran deal.
Answer: There are many Democrats who oppose re-opening the JCPOA. Bob Menendez is one who is vocal about it, but there are many more who are privately worried. The fact that we’re relying on Russia to help us could come right out of a Saturday Night Live skit. Lobby your Congress people on both sides of the isle.
Question about Hezbollah.
Answer: Hezbollah is designated a Foreign Terror Organization (FTO). There is broad bi-partisan support for Lebanon. We have only selectively sanctioned Lebanese banks used by Hezbollah; we need to be more aggressive in sanctioning banks and go after some European banks as well. Right now, since Hezbollah controls the ministries, they control which banks are considered legitimate.
Question about brain drain.
Answer: Just giving money to people, does not give them hope for the future. We need to stamp out corruption to encourage investment to give people jobs and hope for the future. In Congress, often we listen to lobbyists and benefit from their support, but then we vote against them if we feel its best for the country. The Lebanese need to learn how to do that.
Question about JCPOA.
Answer: President Reagan has a saying: It’s not that they’re stupid, it’s just that they know things that aren’t true. The Biden administration thinks by feeding the snake. It will stop being a snake. Iran’s agenda will always be to the detriment of America and moderate Shi’a and Sunnis.
Question about being afraid to take children to Lebanon.
Answer: It’s never a good time to visit Lebanon and it’s never a bad time. It’s not as dangerous as is sometimes portrayed. Vacationing in Mexico is about as dangerous. It’s good to visit to see for yourself the situation there.
Question: Since the LAF is infiltrated by Hezbollah, there is the perception in Lebanon that America is supporting Hezbollah.
Answer: All the various groups have individuals involved in corruption. Hezbollah collects taxes and distributes the funds as they see fit. We bring members of the LAF to the US for training. We ask them to pledge a separate oath to Lebanon and we want to teach a system of loyalty to the state not to their own religious or ethnic group. When fighting against ISIS, the LAF seemed to cooperate with Hezbollah, but in reality they only de-conflicted because ISIS had to be defeated. We need to convince the Shi’a to reject the answers they’ve been getting from Hezbollah.
Question: Why is it taking so long to find out who was responsible for the Port explosion?
Answer: There were so many people involved, that everyone and no one was responsible. The answer lies in the system of corruption. The fertilizer should never have been off-loaded and should never have been stored there. Hezbollah was taking it out for use in explosives through tunnels underneath. We need to look at the system, not try to find one person responsible.
Question about stopping Hezbollah members coming to America.
Answer: It is easy to deny visas even on information not completely verified, just credible.
John Hajjar: Thank you Congressman Issa.
PANEL 2: CHANGING THE STATUS QUO
Mr. Fred Fleitz, Former Chief of Staff and Executive Secretary of the National Security Council in the Trump administration
Mr. Gabriel Noronha / Former Special Advisor-Iran Action Group at State Dept.
Dr. Walid Phares, Co-Secretary General Transatlantic Parliamentary Group. Remarks and moderator
Dr. Phares introduced the other two panelists and remarked that they were in the same room where the Trans-Atlantic Group on Counter terrorism to facilitate communication between the US Congress and the European parliament and to coordinate the response to terror.
Fred Fleitz: To weaken Hezbollah, we need to isolate Iran. This was the strategy under President Trump and it was working. Hezbollah’s money was drying up and Iran’s influence in the region was diminishing. The Biden administration wants to re-enter a new and even worse Iran deal. The Biden deal would give Iran $90 billion in sanctions relief, $50 billion in increased revenue and $7 billion in cash. They are talking about removing the foreign terrorist designation from the IRGC, but still keeping sanctions on it. Our diplomats have not been allowed to even be part of discussions in Vienna. Russia has all the power in these negotiations, but fortunately, the talks are stalled. It is strange that European powers like Germany are negotiating this deal with Iran, while the regional powers – Saudi Arabia and Israel – are excluded. This is harming the US in the region and pushing Saudi Arabia and others to move toward China. If the administration would stand behind the Abraham Accords, other Arab states, including Lebanon, could normalize relations with Israel and begin developing economic ties like Morocco and the UAE are doing. The Abraham Accords have created stability and was a great diplomatic achievement.
Gabriel Noronha: Mr. Fleitz is right. We need to weaken Hezbollah by weakening Iran and drying up their funds. Hezbollah is spending $25 million in the upcoming Lebanese elections to influence the outcome. Many of the sanctions on Iran are not being enforced. We need to convinced other countries to stop trading with Iran, especially India. We’ve given Iran $50 billion already by not enforcing sanctions. We have 13 countries onboard with designating the IRCG as a terrorist organization, but France has not joined. They make the distinction between Hezbollah as a political party as opposed to its military wing. We need to pressure France on this issue. The State Department under Trump was working on drying up Iran’s ballistic missile financing as well as its terror financing, but all that work has stopped.
Walid Phares: When Lebanon succeeded in forcing Syria to withdraw from its territory with the help of the international community, the triggering event was the assassination of Rafiq Hariri which precipitated the Cedars Revolution. The people made their will known –Syria out and no armed militias. Unfortunately, UN Resolution 1559 which stipulated the disarming of all militias was never enforced with regard to Hezbollah. As a consequence, Hezbollah is now an occupying force in control of many of the country’s institutions. The Lebanese people again made their voice clear in the October revolt – no armed militias running the country – but the international community has done nothing. I am therefore proposing an interim plan for a free area within Lebanon where Hezbollah is not present and which can be protected by the Lebanese Army. This area could attract investment and be free of the corruption that is ruining the country. This is not the final answer but could provide a way forward.
Question about taking the IRGC off the FTO list.
Fleitz: One plan is to take the IRGC off the list but to keep it on a secret list and keep the sanctions on it.
Noronha: The IRGC is still trying to assassinate Secretary Pompeo and Ambassador Bolton. If they remove the IRGC from the FTO list, there will likely be lawsuits.
Question about Russia and Ukraine – still not cutting off Russia’s money supply.
Noronha: One reason is Russia is selling oil o China. If the new JCPOA goes through, Russia will sell arms to Iran. Russia will be the big winner in the short term.
Fleitz: The deal stipulates that Iran’s enriched uranium will go to Russia and if any future administration pulls out of the deal like Trump did, then the uranium will go back to Iran. That is being engineered by the Biden administration.
Phares: China has recently signed a strategic agreement with Iran and right now, 80% of Asia is now under the influence of China, Russia and Iran and all three are now on the offensive: Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East and China is eyeing Taiwan. China also made a deal with the Solomon Islands in the Pacific. Any money going to Iran from the JCPO will go to Russia in the form of arms sales. The JCPOA strengthens all our enemies directly or indirectly.
Question about whether ISIS could come back.
Fleitz: We can defeat ISIS on the battlefield again, but we need to confront it as an ideological movement.
Noronha: I’m more concerned about a resurgent al Qaeda.
Question about whether Biden could be doing all this in the Middle East just to oppose Trump or if there is another reason.
Fleitz: The JCPOA was thought to be a major achievement and the Biden people want to restore it. Plus there has been a strong effort to reverse everything Trump did. Unfortunately, the truth is that the Left has no problem with a nuclear Iran. They think that if Israel has nukes, why not Iran? Not sure the Biden people understand the radical ideology held by the mullahs.
Noronha: Some in the administration think they can control the Shi’a and maybe think if Iran has nukes that will diminish the US,
Question: I see the Abraham Accords as part of the Trump strategy of maximum pressure on Iran. Have these efforts been stalled?
Fleitz: The relationship between Israel and the Arab states are continuing to normalize. The Biden administration hates it, especially Morocco getting the Western Sahara, but they’ve had no choice but to basically sign off.
Phares: The Abraham Accords are part of the natural evolution of the Middle East representing the rise of the Arab coalition and their alliance with Israel against Iran. The people of the region are making their voices heard against the Iran threat and against the Islamist threat – as when the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt. The people of Israel and the Arab world are interacting and trading. We need to bring in more countries and the Abraham Accords can’t be reversed. We need to talk about poet-war Syria and the status of the Kurds and other minorities.
Question about Lebanon joining the Accords – emphasis on love and peace.
Phares: The Phoenicians strengthened civilization all around the Mediterranean world without force – by trade.
Question: With Hezbollah in the government and institutions of Lebanon, how can we get them out?
Phares: The plan to create a free area is not the total answer, but we have to start somewhere. We first have to assemble all the elements – the Congress, the Europeans, the diaspora. Circumstances are changing day by day.
LUNCH PROGRAM
BBC documentary on the Beirut Port explosion:
Dr. Rachid Rahme, who cared for 273 casualties in 6 hours, gave more statistics on the explosion: 200 people died instantly, over 7,000 were wounded, 37,000 apartments were damaged and 300,000 people made homeless including 80,000 children. It was the third most devastating explosion in the world. Hezbollah is obstructing the investigation into the origin of the explosion. One informant told investigators he took ammonium nitrate from the facility on orders from Hezbollah for years before the explosion. It was well known that it was there. Whatever the results of the upcoming election, Hezbollah will still be in control. We need help to take our country back.
Brigitte Khair is running for Parliament in Lebanon against a Hezbollah ally. She said that after many civil wars and invasions, Lebanon is facing an existential problem – whether to survive under the identity of the free Lebanese Republic or to sink into a dictatorship. The Lebanese people are the hostages of Hezbollah which is using its illegal weapons and power to turn Lebanon into an Islamic extremist country. They started by turning it to a chaotic country. We are the new blood. We have solutions and are eager to make the necessary changes.
Chorbishop Seely Beggiani, Chairman of Commission on Lebanon from The Diocese of The Eparchy of Saint Maron said Lebanon is in crisis. When its economy collapsed the World Bank, US, France and other offered help immediately, but the Lebanese government has dragged its feet responding. The government is plainly flawed. Any other country in the world, would have responded quickly to the emergency. Lebanese government does not work. No one is ever held accountable for anything that happens. Elections coming up is like fighting over the deck chairs while the Titanic is at the bottom of the ocean. Where is the outrage? People are hungry, where is the sense of urgency?
Paul Hindi, President of the American-Lebanese Policy Institute Political Action Committee introduced Former MP Samy Gemayel/Chairman of Kataeb Party. Leads the opposition in Lebanon, known as a hardliner because he wants transparency and accountability. He resigned as MP in protest of the government’s responsibility for the port explosion. His brother, Pierre, was assassinated
Samy Gamayel: This is a delicate moment for Lebanon. The country is being held hostage by an armed militia which is financed and controlled by a foreign country. Therefore, it is not only a Lebanese issue, it is an issue for the international community. Hezbollah installed the corrupt President Michel Aoun and then changed the electoral law so that they can create any government they want. They have complete control of Lebanese institutions. There is no difference between Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon – the mafia-militia alliance. We are trying to fight this without getting dragged into Hezbollah’s playground – violence. We are trying to form a bloc in Parliament as an alternative to this state of affairs created by the corrupt ruling class. The UN voted for resolution 1559 unanimously, but then no one stepped up to implement it. Not the US, UK, France, Russia, or China. We need our friends to help us – the hostage cannot free itself without outside help. We need everyone to push the US administration to help liberate Lebanon. The Hezbollah takeover has destroyed the economy and left the people inn deep poverty. After the election, we hope to bring our resistance bloc to the US Congress.
Sheikh Mohammad Haj Hassan of the Free Shi’a movement in Dearborn Michigan: Many Shi’a in Lebanon who are not under the thumb of Hezbollah have tried to organize politically and have been hit by the IRGC. They have been shot by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has kidnapped the justice system, the political system and Lebanese sovereignty. Hezbollah has stated: “Weapons are our religion.” This election is not the solution. The solution is to end the occupation of Lebanon by Iran.
PANEL 3: HEZBOLLAH GLOBAL ACTIVITIES INCLUDING LATIN AMERICA
Joseph Humire / National Security Expert
Daniel Di Martino / Expert on Venezuela
Dr. Emanuelle Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy
Mrs. Astrid Hajjar Moderator
Mrs. Hajjar: Hezbollah operates all around the world, but in the panel we are concentrating on their operation in Latin America, specifically Venezuela. They have developed a very elaborate and complicated network of drug trafficking and money laundering involving the Lebanese diaspora in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe and the US. Venezuela is of paramount strategic importance to Hezbollah.
Daniel Di Martino: Many Syrians and Lebanese went to Latin America in the 1950s and 60s. After the Iranian revolution, many fled to Venezuela. Hugo Chavez cooperated with Syria, Iran and Hezbollah to help him stay in power. Iranian construction firms helped to build in Venezuela. The US slapped secondary sanctions of Venezuela for cooperating with Iran. The goal of sanctions was not to overthrow the regimes, but to reduce the capacity of the regimes to cause harm. Venezuelan bank accounts are frozen in the US reducing their money flow. The Trump administration began interdicting shipments of arms and oil flowing between Iran and Venezuela, but that seems to have stopped under Biden. The two countries cooperate to sidestep sanctions.
Joseph Humire: Venezuela allowed Hezbollah to operate freely. This speaker has bee an expert witness in many terrorism trials in Latin America and the US. One such trial involved a man named Hamdar who was a Lebanese national who entered Peru on a tourist visa. He quickly married a Peruvian woman who also had US citizenship. Shortly thereafter, she went to the US to live with her ex-husband. He kept a low profile and established regular habits. The Peruvian authorities were watching him. The wife returned and he became reclusive. She left again and then he doesn’t leave the apartment at all. The authorities are alerted and raid the apartment. They find thousands of reconnaissance photos of Lima and traces of nitroglycerine and black powder from TNT on his hands. They also find his real identity – similar name, different spelling. He admitted that Hezbollah sent him to Peru to take the photos. The Peruvians didn’t even know what Hezbollah was. This case and others have spurred many Latin American countries to put Hezbollah on the foreign terrorist list and to sanction their activities.
Dr. Emanuelle Ottolenghi: Taking a global view, there is a clear convergence between the drug crime networks and terror networks. Many outwardly respectable Lebanese businesspeople in the diaspora are secretly involved with narcotics trafficking and money laundering. There is a system of complicity and control stemming from personal bonds of village, family, clan and faith and Iran is pulling the strings. Colombian drug traffickers and Hezbollah drug traffickers cooperate. They use used car lots in the US to launder money. They use leverage over people who are not hard-core Hezbollah, just well-positioned to help them – one young man married to the daughter of a customs official, for example. There are intermarriages between Hezbollah connected families and Colombian cartel connected families creating a complicated mafia-like organization with tentacles all over the world, from Africa to Europe to Australia to the Middle East to Latin America to the United States. When one part is shut down, they just move their operations elsewhere. The bulk of the revenue goes back to Hezbollah.
PANEL 4: HEZBOLLAH’S IMPACT ON LEBANESE FINANCIAL CRISIS, CORRUPTION, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND UPCOMING ELECTION
Leaders via Zoom from Lebanon:
Former Minister General Ashraf Rifi
Former MP Dr. Fares Souaid (Chairman of National Council to remove Iranian occupation)
Judge Peter Germanous
MP (Resigned) Nadim Gemayel
Candidate Majid Harb
Candidate Camile Chamoun Jr./Chairman of the Sovereign Front
Tom Harb /coordinator
Former MP Dr. Fares Souaid: There is no Lebanese state independent of Hezbollah. All the main economic and political decisions for Lebanon are taken by Hezbollah. The first step is not to ask for support from outside, but to unite within Lebanon. There is no national anti-Hezbollah, anti-Iranian occupation movement within Lebanon. Many minority groups support Hezbollah for their own reasons. The Sunni are weak after their defeat in Syria fighting against Assad who is supported by Iran and Moscow. The Christians are a huge part of Hezbollah support as they see their alliance with Hezbollah as protection against the Sunni majority in the region. The Alawi and the Druze communities in Syria is also aligned with the Shi’a against the Sunni. The minorities in Lebanon are afraid of Hezbollah and the only resistance is from a minority within the minority communities. That is what needs to change.
Judge Peter Germanous: Iran is destroying Lebanon by financing and controlling political parties and armed militias. Iran has caused the economic collapse of the country which has caused a mass exodus of tens of thousands. Iran is also buying up land now being sold at bargain prices. The coming election is anything but democratic.
Question: Do you think the investigation into the port bombing will yield any results?
Judge Germanous: Hezbollah controls the deep state and any inquiry that could affect their influence won’t happen. Only a suicidal officer or judge would go against Hezbollah.
Majid Harb: We are living in what our own President describes as hell. Just yesterday, some people tried to escape Lebanon by sea and seven dies including a baby girl. It tells you something when people are willing to risk their children at sea rather than stay in Lebanon. Where did it all go wrong? It went wrong when we allowed our country to be controlled by thugs. They are even stealing and selling oil and gas which was purchased by the Lebanese taxpayers. They own their own bank with operates outside the regular banking system. They gain government contracts without bidding for them and they have allowed the Lebanese people to be used as guinea pigs for experimental Iranian drugs. The authorities who are supposed to be protecting us are being used as tools of Hezbollah. We have filed several lawsuits against Hezbollah and they are always dismissed within hours of filing. We need the West to sanction these judges – 70% are acting as corrupt tools of Hezbollah.
Tom Harb read the following statement from former Minister General Ashraf Rifi: Over the past decades Lebanon has been subjected to a terrible depletion of its sovereignty, security, economy and population, and this depletion has turned it into a country governed by hazard and doom, into a captive nation used by Iran to fulfill its ambitions and project, in which Iran plans to penetrate and control any Arab country where it can find a foothold, and it is no secret that Lebanon is the crown jewel of the Persian project where Iran has equipped and trained an armed faction charged with controlling Lebanon’s decisions for the benefit of Iran. Among this faction’s tasks is to spearhead Iranian intervention in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and to sow disruption and establish militias in the Arab Gulf states.
The International Special Tribunal for Lebanon accused Hezbollah of assassinating (former prime minister) Rafik Hariri, while the martyrs of the Independence Revolution succumbed in a wave of endless assassinations aimed at subjugating the independence movement of the Lebanese. Hezbollah carried out armed incursions, overturned the results of elections, and imposed the election of the president of the republic, the formation of governments, and the electoral law. Thus, the country became occupied, and its economy fell as a result of the alliance of arms and corruption. As a result, Hezbollah protected his ruling class and maneuvered to stop, divide and demonize the revolutions of March 14, 2005 and October 17, 2019, which almost succeeded in toppling the Hezbollah regime.
The Lebanese people have paid a heavy price and have revolted several times, so that their years are almost in a continuous revolution. Parallel to this constant struggle, the Lebanese people won the support of the international community and international public opinion, but this was not enough to protect the Lebanese model, which is one of the oldest and most rooted democratic models in the region.
Lebanon is only the remnants of a country, where journalists and free authors are assassinated, and most recently Lukman Slim was assassinated in Hezbollah’s territory, and then his case was closed without investigation. These crimes have occurred without the perpetrators being punished, and this encourages more crimes to be committed.
International resolutions related to Lebanon have been issued, the most important of which are UNSC Resolutions 1559, 1701 and 1680, all of which are aimed at restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty and legitimate authority over its land and demarcating the border with Syria, but these resolutions have been hollowed out and remain almost ink on paper, and are still awaiting implementation, while the situation is deteriorating.
Pending the implementation of the comprehensive solution, we propose what can be considered a partial solution: to implement the strategy of imposing the power of legitimate arms, i.e. the Lebanese Army, in areas where Hezbollah does not control the populations, and thus large areas of Lebanon would be under the authority of legitimate security agencies and outside Hezbollah’s ability to spreading chaos, intimidation and assassination, because Lebanon is a pluralistic country, and no single component can impose its opinion on other components.
Without overstatement, Lebanon is entrusted to the free world, and if the latter abandons its role, this will pave the way for more countries to fall under the yoke of tutelage and tyranny, and this is why we look forward to placing Lebanon in a strategic position in the Middle East and returning it to the role it played before its fall in the hands of chaos, violence and instability.
MP (Resigned) Nadim Gemayel: In this coming election, Lebanon will make a choice between freedom and totalitarianism. We have been paying the price for having elected an ally of Hezbollah as President. Now Hezbollah has changed the electoral laws to ensure their victory. Lebanon belongs to the free world and we want to go back to that direction again. We need the support of the Arab World, the US and the EU. Twenty two journalists and activists have been assassinated since 2005 for trying to fight Hezbollah. We need help to unite internally and expel Hezbollah.
Candidate Camile Chamoun Jr.: Hezbollah’s drug smuggling activities alone should be enough for the free world to intervene in our sorry situation more energetically. The coming elections may help, but currently, Lebanon is a failed state. Our economy, infrastructure, hospitals, electrical grid are all in shambles. People are assassinated and no one is held responsible.
When you in the diaspora vote, we are asking that the votes be tallied before they are sent to Lebanon. We don’t want ballots to disappear as they have before.
Our Constitution originally called for decentralization of the government and more local control. Right now the Mount Lebanon area contributes 70% of all taxes collected, but receives only about 12 % of that back to cover our needs. Autonomous regions where our tax money could be reinvested locally would help a lot. The Arab world has sent billions of dollars to Lebanon over the last 30 years, but it has all been stolen. Furthermore, the government crashed the banking system by borrowing so much the banks couldn’t cover deposits and people lost their life savings. Local autonomous regions would go a long way toward helping the situation.
PANEL 5: HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN IMPACT ON LEBANON: JUDICIARY SYSTEM, BEIRUT PORT EXPLOSION AND THE AFTERMATH
Dr. Antoine Saad / International Attorney
Mrs Guila Fakhoury / Amer Fakhoury Foundation
Mr. Elie Mahfoud / President of the Change Movement
Mr. Bryan Lieb / Iranian-Americans for Liberty
Dr Viviane Haber Moderator
Bryan Lieb: Hezbollah would not exist without the backing of Iran. They both despise the US and want to destroy Israel. They both want Islam to take over the world and anyone who doesn’t conform is isolated and even murdered. No terror organization in the world has received mor funding than Hezbollah and that funding is increasing after the Biden administration decided not to enforce the sanctions on Iran. A few years ago, Iran had about 3 or 4 billion dollars in international reserves. Now they have 30 billion. Iran is selling a billion dollars’ worth of oil to China every month. As a result, the IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terror groups are getting increased funding from Iran. Just the fact that the administration considered removing the IRGC from the foreign terrorist list projects weakness. Iran, Russia, China are forming a new alliance against the West which would not have happened if another person was in the White House. The US should partner with the people of Lebanon, not their government – same with Iran. The Iranian people could be partners for peace if their government fell and the entire Middle East and the world would benefit.
Question about out missile defense and if we could defend against an ballistic missile attack by Iran.
Answer: I don’t see anything but appeasement of the Iranians coming from the Biden White House.
Question about whether the Iranian diaspora and Lebanese diaspora could unite with the Israeli officials to influence the Congress and administration.
Answer: Good idea. I know that Iranian-Americans are 100% behind the Abraham Accords and Israel.
Response from questioner: That is what we are trying to do at the American Mideast Coalition for Democracy.
Dr. Antoine Saad: In July of 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed during a Democratic administration, and in 2018 during a Republican administration the United States pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal. But this did not alter the US stance on the status of the Iranian National Guard and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. Despite the classification and designation of these organizations as such, they continued their sinister plots to wreak havoc wherever the government of Iran wills it.
It has become evident that however vital, the sanctions on Tehran are not sufficient to halt the aggression that started in 1979. Perhaps we need to consider a more direct way of dealing with this aggression as in how the Kurds and the opposition forces in Syria faced off the Iranian surrogates. The same scenario played out similarly in Yemen and in Iraq when the Iranian aggressors and their proxies were curbed, and the Iranian hegemony stopped.
Lebanon is my homeland. It is in danger of losing its identity. The identity that it has held for thousands of years. The identity that has spread knowledge, education, and innovation throughout the world. Through well-known scholars and humanitarians like Dr. Charles Malek, Dr. Michael DeBakey and Mr. Danny Thomas to name a few. It is mind boggling to realize that the country that boasts the very first Law school in the world, The Law School of Berytus, is being overtaken by lawless thugs dressed in black, otherwise known as Hezbollah. Strong unequivocal support is needed to help those willing to stand as the defenders of freedom and human rights. Clear precise support is needed to stand overwhelmingly against the deliberate take over by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah and its corrupt allies choking the Lebanese constitution and government.
From this point we need to move forward by identifying what common interests we have that will bind us in this endeavor and drive us strategically to support those that are standing in opposition to the Iranian and Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon. The following is a six-point plan that can be a means to this goal:
Enriching the Lebanese Armed Forces with state-of-the-art weaponry that can overshadow the stockpile of modern weapons that Hezbollah brandishes. This will stop the proliferation of the Hezbollah influence outside their political and religious perimeter.
Supporting all political forces that are pushing for upholding lawful authority and legitimacy with political and financial means. This will create a second line of defense to credibly challenge Hezbollah and its allies, giving priority to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Supporting all legitimate Lebanese institutions that are not under Hezbollah influence.
An organized unified front must be established to create an environment of growth and stability where new ports, airports with private administration and a new independent taxation system that can operate without any undue influence and interference from Hezbollah. Moreover, this united front must set as one of its goals the establishment of rules and regulations that restrict the use of the military court to military issues and personnel.
Upholding the presence of the Civil State in areas that are liberated from Hezbollah’s grasp, this to attract those fleeing the rule of the Iranian Islamic State (Welayet al-Fakih)
Finally, and when necessary, the creation of a Free Zone with defined borders that is independent politically, constitutionally, militarily from the Hezbollah Zone.
Just as the West Bank in Palestine is not under the influence of Iran, as well as Hasaka and Aleppo in northern Syria, which are not subject to the influence of the Assad regime, and Erbil in Iraq, which is not affected by the proxies of Iran, and just as the Greek side of Cyprus is not under the influence of the Erdogan regime, so why not create a Free Zone in Lebanon that is not affected by the Iranian occupation weapons, and have it as a free, democratic region that is friendly to the free world.
Mrs Guila Fakhoury, daughter of Amer Fakoury, spoke about her father’s illegal detention in Lebanon where he was tortured and forced to sign false statements, such as that he had an Israeli passport, which he did not have. The judges and President Aoun all knew he was innocent, yet they held him anyway. The Trump administration negotiated with the Hezbollah-dominated government and he was eventually released, but died shortly afterward. The family suspects he was poisoned. We need to keep pressure on the administration to help free Lebanon from Iranian occupation.
Eli Mahfoud: Hezbollah is anathema to Lebanon’s traditional place between East and West. Hezbollah gains power through threats and violence while working through the political system. It is incompatible with national sovereignty, multi-culturalism, democracy and the rule of law. Iran is creating a land bridge to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to the borders of Golan. Iran has forced Lebanon into conflicts and wars it does not want. It blocks the free movement of people and even prevents the LAF from entering any Hezbollah military compound spread throughout the country. Forbes magazine raked Hezbollah the #1 richest terrorist organization in the world with 1.1 billion dollars I annual income – 700 million comes from Iran and the rest from its international criminal enterprises. We call on the UN to implement resolutions 1701 and 1559 and for the Taif agreement to be enforced in cooperation with the Arab League and for Hezbollah and all their cronies to be prosecuted in the International Criminal Court.
CLOSING REMARKS BY TOUFIC HINDI, LEBANESE POLITICIAN AND STRATEGIST
First remark: Lebanon is under Iranian occupation
The fate of Lebanon, as in any country, is determined by the balance of forces, the main component of which in a country under occupation or dominated by a militia is the military-security component. It precedes in importance the other components be it political, popular, economic, financial and cultural.
After the election of General Michel Aoun to the Presidency of the Republic in 2016 and the 2018 parliamentary elections through which Hezbollah gained the majority, the strategic decision of any Government, irrespective of its composition and nature, remains in its hands. Thus, one can say that Hezbollah controls the three constitutional institutions.
Externally, the Vienna talks are going on so far without success, knowing that the two major issues of ballistic missiles and Iranian expansion in the region remain outside the scope of negotiations.
Conclusion 1: Lebanon is under Iranian occupation via Hezbollah regardless of the success of Vienna talks
Second remark: Constitutional processes in an occupied Lebanon
The “Lebanese state” is not only a failed state or a rogue state. Lebanon is living in a situation of non-state.
In Lebanon, the State of Institutions, the Constitution, and the Law are absent.
The virtual State is only a tool in the hands of Hezbollah.
Therefore, there is no way for national salvation and change through using constitutional processes (parliamentary and presidential elections and the formation of governments).
Conclusion 2: Coexisting with the occupier and the rogue political class under its control in Parliament, Government, and dialogue bodies, would only benefit to Hezbollah.
Third remark: Elections, Hezbollah and the International Community
After the formation of the Mikati government, the Lebanese political scene went hysterical concerning the parliamentary elections to be held on May 15, portrayed by many political forces as an existential turning point.
Meanwhile, the West whose main goal is to normalize its relations with Iran in order to conclude illusory juicy deals with it, is now practicing a “realpolitik” approach concerning Hezbollah and its cronies.
Therefore, Lebanese political factions who are blindly sharing such complacent Western approach towards Iran at this stage is similar to what happened in the early nineties, when the West gave a free hand to Hafez El Assad in Lebanon. Whoever participated in the Syrian-Lebanese security system at that time, on the basis of practicing “realpolitik”, either ended his life as a martyr like Rafik Hariri, or as a convict pursuant to a suspended death sentence like Walid Jumblatt.
Let’s remember that the Syrian occupation didn’t end through elections or formation of Governments, but through a non-violent sovereigntist movement which faced a Lebanese State under occupation. It began with the boycott of elections in 1992, took shape with Cornet Chehwan in 2001 and evolved into a massive popular movement in 14th of March 2005, mirroring the will of Lebanese people to free themselves from the Syrian occupation.
But all this popular build-up couldn’t deliver if a real change of the military balance of forces didn’t occur. The massive military American presence in Iraq and the Bush Administration ultimatum to Assad, coupled with the 1559 resolution and the paramount of the sovereigntist movement in 14th March 2005, caused the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon on the 26th of April 2005.
Unhappily, the catastrophic behavior of the March 14’s main components towards Hezbollah, permitted the replacement of the Syrian occupation by the Iranian occupation.
Let’s remember also that the 14th March coalition did have the majority of the Parliament in 2005 and 2009 and yet couldn’t liberate Lebanon.
Conclusion 3: Holding elections under occupation only serves the occupation.
Fourth remark: The outcome of elections
Hezbollah together with the corrupt, murderous rogue political class operating under its control, albeit in different forms, possess strong elements in the electoral process which would allow them to be victorious.
Thus, there is no way for those struggling for sovereignty and change to win the majority.
The International Community would then be facing a difficult choice between a parliamentary vacuum and hence the total collapse of the non-State or an extension of the term of the current Parliament. No doubt that it will choose the second option and impose it on the whole political class.
Conclusion 4: Hezbollah will maintain its parliamentary majority, whether elections were held or not, with a bonus in the first case which will provide it with a renewed legitimacy.
General Conclusion:
The Lebanese problem is therefore not intrinsically Lebanese.
Lebanon has become a ticking time bomb for security, stability and peace in the region and in the world.
The roadmap we propose for regional and international security, stability and peace is as follows:
The implementation of a Security Council resolution placing resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701 under chapter 7 and expanding the tasks of UNIFIL.
A Security Council Resolution placing Lebanon under an international mandate in accordance with Chapters 12 and 13 of the United Nations Charter or through the invocation of Human Rights to confront the criminal political class.
It is only after the cleansing of all state institutions of political clientelism and corruption and the stabilization of the situation in Lebanon within the framework of the aforementioned international supervision that the legislative elections could be held in accordance with a new electoral law. They would be followed by the presidential election and the formation of a government that would pave the way for the lifting of international tutelage and the recovery of Lebanon at all levels. The Mandatory Authorities should form a temporary Lebanese military-civilian Authority to do, under its supervision, “the big cleaning” of the state apparatus.
Result: renewed confidence of the Lebanese people in the Lebanese State, as well as renewed confidence of the international and Arab community, and of the Lebanese diaspora in the Lebanese State, paving the way for a rapid recovery of Lebanon economically, financially, socially and culturally.
ADDENDUM:
AMERICAN LEBANESE POLICY INSTITUTE, PAC POLICY DOCUMENT ON LEBANON
Background:
Lebanon is witnessing today the worst economic, financial and political crisis in 100 years. Unlike the rest of the world, that is affecting by external events, the situation in Lebanon is caused by the mismanagement of the state, deep state corruption, and the rule of a mafia and a militia alliance for the past 30 years.
Lebanon is also in a hostage situation. The Iranian Regime is taking the country away from its historical role and positioning to become a proxy for the Iranian regime and a bargaining card in the hands of Hezbollah to use against its Arab neighbors and the world.
The United States and Lebanon enjoyed fruitful and close relationship for the past century and even more. The United States was and still is the favorite destination for Lebanese Immigrants who found their place and role in the US social fabric and are working for the growth and prosperity of the United States as their homeland.
However, nowadays, the Hezbollah-led establishment is trying to drift Lebanon away from its close ties with the US and to establish a new status-quo where Lebanon becomes part of the anti-US axis in the MENA region. As proud Americans, we will use all our powers to stop this attempt and work closely with like-minded people in the US and Lebanon in order to bring back peace and prosperity to Lebanon and its people with the support of the US administration and the US people.
Policy priorities:
Under these principles and goals, the ALPI-PAC is keeping a close eye on the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon, scheduled to take place on May 15th, as a peaceful opportunity for the Lebanese people to save their country and continue the change movement that started with the October 17th 2019 uprising in Lebanon.
In order to help the Lebanese people in their peaceful demand for change, prosperity and peace, the ALPI-PAC proposes the following steps on the US decision makers, to be based on for any policy, bill or Executive Order that targets Lebanon and the US-Lebanese relations:
1.Pressure for the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and1701, in particular the closes pertaining to the disarmament of all militias on Lebanese soil and the protection of Lebanon’s borders with Syria to stop weapons and money smuggling to Hezbollah. By sealing that border “the government” can stop the flow of arms and most importantly the cash to Hezbollah.
2.Broaden the reach of the Magnitsky Act targeting the corrupt and those who prevent the government from operating and those who are strangling the judiciary
3. Asking the International community to support a call to transfer the investigation of the Beirut Blast to an International Tribunal.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 16-17/2022
Iran's Top Negotiator: Countries Seek to Neutralize Effects of Sanctions
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani announced that several countries had asked Iran for ways to "neutralize effects of sanctions," noting Tehran is serious about the Vienna negotiations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei insists on neutralizing the effects of sanctions. Speaking on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show 2022, the chief negotiator said the strategic policy is in line with the smart initiative to lift sanctions and thwarted the “enemy's” efforts in stopping the progress and the comprehensive national development.
The negotiator presented his interpretation of "the science of aborting sanctions," discussing three stages of confronting US energy sanctions. He said the "art" of circumventing sanctions was once the industry's only instrument against George W. Bush's "smart sanctions," which then turned into "technology" to counter Barack Obama's "crippling sanctions" and then into "knowledge" to thwart "sanctions imposed by Donald Trump's maximum pressure campaign."
Bagheri said that other countries subject to sanctions are now seeking Iran's experience in neutralizing sanctions. He noted the ability of scientists to neutralize sanctions and significantly increase the diplomatic capacity to lift sanctions, adding that this ability would also greatly enhance the country's deterrent power in the face of oppressive sanctions. Last month, the Wall Street Journal revealed documents that showed Iran's ability to circumvent sanctions by creating a clandestine banking and financial system. The system comprises accounts in foreign commercial banks, proxy companies registered outside the country, firms that coordinate the banned trade, and a transaction clearinghouse within Iran, which has helped Tehran handle tens of billions of dollars in annual trade.
The chief negotiator noted that the revolutionary wisdom requires "not trusting the enemy and not relying on foreigners, while we use all the capacities of the field of diplomacy to ensure national interests."Bagheri's statement came after his negotiations with the EU envoy, Enrique Mora, after nearly two months of stalled, slow-paced negotiations hosted by Vienna. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the trip had gone "better than expected."
"The negotiations had stalled, and now they have been reopened," Borrell told reporters, adding that "there is a perspective of reaching a final agreement.""These things cannot be resolved overnight," added Borrell, noting that Iran's response had been "positive enough" after Mora visited Tehran.
President Joe Biden has backed a return to the deal trashed by his predecessor Donald Trump but has been frustrated by Iran's demands. US State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed his appreciation for Mora's visit, noting that "the deal remains far from uncertain." "It is up to Iran to decide whether it wants to conclude a deal quickly," he told reporters. "We and our partners are ready -- we have been for some time -- but now it's really up to Iran." He warned that the United States was preparing for all scenarios, including failing to return to the deal.

Paris Warns of Consequences of Not Signing Nuclear Deal
Paris - Michel Abu Najm/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Three days after European Union envoy Enrique Mora visited Tehran in a bid to help restart the 2015 nuclear deal, a French source expressed pessimism over the prospects of progress.
Talks to revive the deal with world powers have been on hold since March, chiefly over Tehran’s insistence that Washington remove the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the US list of designated terrorist organizations. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that Mora’s trip had gone “better than expected.”“The negotiations had stalled and now they have been reopened,” Borrell told reporters on the sidelines of a G7 meeting in Germany. “There is a perspective of reaching a final agreement.”
Borrell said “disagreements on what to do about the IRGC” had hampered progress in the talks for two months. He said Mora had taken the EU's message to Tehran “that we couldn't continue like this.”
“The answer has been positive enough,” Borrell affirmed. However, this optimism doesn’t seem to prevail among the European parties to the accord. In a meeting with some journalists, a senior French official source gave a less optimistic reading of the course of the political process. Paris, one of the three European capitals that signed the 2015 deal and participated in the Vienna negotiations in Europe, along with London and Berlin, confirms that the text of the agreement is ready to be signed. The source stressed that the ball is currently in Iran’s court, noting that it is time for Iranian authorities to put an end to this matter and take a final decision on whether it will sign the deal or not.
Paris, along with Western capitals, accuses Iran of engaging in “nuclear blackmail” by introducing the IRGC matter and sanctions waiver. According to the diplomatic source, Tehran knows that the current US administration cannot respond to its demands and will certainly have hard time passing it in the Congress. Insisting on this demand, albeit it is not part of the 2015 deal, would hinder reaching a final agreement, the source noted. The source pointed to another factor that obstructs the process.
He said that returning to a deal with the amendments made to it will launch a new dynamic of openness and gradual normalization between Iran and world countries, which would change the internal political and social balances in Iran. Therefore, Paris says this shift concerns most of the hardliners in Iran, who are currently holding the grip of power in the country. The source further warned Iranian authorities of the consequences of failing to reach a final agreement with the world powers. He did not elaborate.
Nevertheless, Washington and western and regional parties will most likely escalate in this case, either by imposing new financial and economic sanctions on Iran, removing the Iranian financial system from the global cycle or by waging a war to halt the development of its nuclear program. To spare the region and the world such tragic developments, Paris called on Iranian officials to seize the available opportunity and sign the agreement.

Iran Says Awaits US Response to Nuclear Talks 'Solutions'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Iran said on Monday it awaited the US response to "solutions" discussed with the EU envoy for breaking a stalemate in talks aimed at restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. The European Union's coordinator for nuclear talks with Iran, Enrique Mora, held two days of discussions with Iran's chief negotiator Ali Bagheri in Tehran last week, leading the EU to say talks had been unblocked. The negotiations, aimed at bringing the US back into the deal and Iran to full compliance with it, had stalled for about two months. "Serious and result-oriented negotiations with special initiatives from Iran were held," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters, according to AFP. "If the US gives its response to some of the solutions that were proposed, we can be in the position that all sides return to Vienna," where the talks are held, he added during his weekly press conference. Iran has been engaged in direct negotiations with France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China to revive the deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The US has participated indirectly. The 2015 agreement gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program to prevent Tehran from developing an atomic bomb -- something it has always denied wanting to do. But the US unilateral withdrawal from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and the reimposition of biting economic sanctions prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.
"If the US announces its political decision today, which we have not yet received, we can say that an important step has been taken in the progress of the negotiations," Khatibzadeh noted.
Among the sticking points is Tehran's demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from a US terrorism list. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell on Friday said Mora's mission to Tehran went "better than expected" and the stalled negotiations "have been reopened."
Washington, however, has adopted a less optimistic tone. State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Friday that "at this point, a deal remains far from certain."He added: "It is up to Iran to decide whether it wants to conclude a deal quickly." Talks on reviving the agreement began in April last year.

Turkey’s Erdogan says will not approve Sweden and Finland joining NATO
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/16 May ,2022
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday he will not approve Sweden and Finland obtaining NATO membership, state news agency Anadolu reported. The Swedish ministry of foreign affairs announced on Monday that senior representatives from Helsinki and Stockholm will travel “soon” to Turkey to discuss Ankara’s objections to their NATO membership. However, Erdogan said the diplomats should not bother coming to Turkey to try to convince Ankara to approve their NATO bids.“First of all, we would not say ‘yes’ to those who impose sanctions on Turkey to join NATO, a security organization, during this process,” Erdogan said. “Neither country has an open, clear stance against terrorist organizations,” he added, describing Sweden as an “incubation center for terrorist organizations.”“They have special invitations to terrorists. They even have pro PKK MPs in their parliaments. How are we going to trust them?” Erdogan added, referring to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization. The two Nordic countries confirmed officially that they will seek NATO membership, ending decades of military nonalignment in an historic move driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey declared last week it had objections to the two countries joining NATO, accusing them of supporting Kurdish militants whom Ankara considers to be terrorists, and failing to extradite dozens of suspected “terrorists”. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Sunday: “Countries supporting terrorism should not be allies in NATO,” Anadolu reported. He added that Turkey demanded both Finland and Sweden “stop supporting terror groups.”

Sweden to Try to Overcome Turkish Objections to its NATO Bid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Sweden will send diplomats to Turkey to try to overcome Ankara's objections to its plan to join NATO, Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said, with a formal decision to hand in an application expected on Monday. Sweden's ruling Social Democrats dropped their 73-year opposition to joining NATO on Sunday and are hoping for a quick accession, abandoning decades of military non-alignment following Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Finland on Sunday also confirmed it would apply to join the Atlantic military alliance. However, Turkey surprised its NATO allies by saying it would not view applications by Finland and Sweden positively, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying "Scandinavian countries are guesthouses for terrorist organizations". "We will send a group of diplomats to hold discussions and have a dialogue with Turkey so we can see how this can be resolved and what this is really about," Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist told public service broadcaster SVT. Turkey said it wanted the Nordic countries to halt support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and lift bans on sales of some weapons to Turkey. NATO and the United States said they were confident Turkey would not hold up membership of Finland and Sweden. Any decision on NATO enlargement requires approval by all 30 members of the alliance and their parliaments, but diplomats said Erdogan would be under pressure to yield as Finland and Sweden would greatly strengthen NATO in the Baltic Sea. "I'm confident that we will be able to address the concerns that Turkey has expressed in a way that doesn't delay the membership," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday. Sweden's parliament will hold a debate on Sweden's membership application on Monday, a formality as there is already a broad majority for an application. The government will take the formal decision to apply later in the day, Hultqvist said.

Russia using mercenaries to replace troop losses in Ukraine: US analysts
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/16 May ,2022
Russia is using private military companies and proxy militias to make up for the heavy troop losses Ukraine as it has run out of combat-ready reservists, DC-based Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis. “Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves,” the analysts said. The analysis added: “The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.”It noted that Russian forces deployed new conscripts from the occupied settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City, “likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the troops who have reached the Russian border near Kharkiv, after a group of soldiers recorded a victorious video of their efforts to push the Russians back to the border and away from the capital Kyiv.“Fellows in Kharkiv, 227 battalion, 127 brigade of the Ukrainian territorial defence. I'm very grateful to you, on behalf of all Ukrainians, on my behalf and on behalf of my family. My gratitude has no limits… great job. I'm very grateful to all the fighters like you. Everything [all occupied territories] will be Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine,” he said.

EU’s Russia Sanctions Effort Slows over Oil Dependency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
The European Union’s efforts to impose a new round of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine appeared to be bogged down on Monday, as a small group of countries opposed a ban on imports of Russian oil. Since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, the bloc has implemented five rounds of sanctions on Moscow. President Vladimir Putin, senior officials, more than 350 lawmakers and pro-Kremlin oligarchs were hit with asset freezes and travel bans. Banks, the transport sector and alleged propaganda outlets were targeted. What could have taken years in the past has been achieved in less than three months - relative light speed for the 27-nation bloc. But limiting Russia’s energy income by weaning their dependency off its oil - not to mention gas supplies - is proving a tougher nut to crack.
The EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, proposed on May 4 a sixth package of war sanctions that included a ban on oil imports from Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen conceded at the time that securing the agreement of all "will not be easy."
Hungary is one of a number of landlocked countries that are highly dependent on Russian oil, along with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Bulgaria also has reservations. Hungary gets more than 60% of its oil from Russia, and 85% of its natural gas. "We will do our best in order to deblock the situation. I cannot ensure that it is going to happen because positions are quite strong," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters as he arrived to chair a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Brussels.
"Some member states face more difficulties because they are more dependent, because they are landlocked," Borrell said, and "they only have oil through pipelines, and coming from Russia."
Muddying the waters is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s relationship with Putin. Orban is widely considered to be one of the Russian leader’s closest European allies. He has only reluctantly supported previous EU sanctions, including a phased-in embargo on Russian coal.
Since taking office in 2010, Orban has deepened Hungary’s dependency on Russian energy and says its geography and energy infrastructure make an oil shutdown impossible. His EU partners are at odds over what they believe is driving his reluctance to target oil.
"The whole union is being held hostage by one member state," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said. He said that the European Commission's proposal offered members a phaseout of Russian oil until Dec 31, 2024, and that "everybody expected that this would be enough."
But his Irish counterpart, Simon Coveney, acknowledged that "these are difficult, difficult issues for some countries," and he added: "Let’s not focus on obstacles and negatives today."
At the same time, Coveney said, "we need to get on and do this. We need to send a very clear signal to the Kremlin and to Moscow that the cost of their continuing war in Ukraine, which is completely unjustifiable, will continue to increase."
For now, the ball is in Hungary’s court, as the most vocal member of those opposed. Officials have said that Orban appears to be seeking EU money for energy infrastructure investment. Any compromise is only likely to be found in his talks with von der Leyen, not between ministers.
The oil standoff raises questions about whether the EU has reached the limits of its unity on sanctions. Targeting Russia’s gas sector, on which many more countries are dependent, is likely to prove even tougher. Officials said before Monday’s meeting that a political agreement is likely to be found on a fourth tranche of money to help supply weapons to Ukraine. It would bring to 2 billion euros ($2.1 billion) the total sum available to fund the purchase of arms and other nonlethal assistance.

Russia Won’t Simply Put Up with NATO’s Nordic Expansion, Ryabkov Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Russia said on Monday that the West should have no illusions that Moscow will simply put up with the Nordic expansion of the US-led NATO military alliance to include Sweden and Finland, casting the move as a mistake that would stoke military tension. Vladimir Putin, Russia's paramount leader since the last day of 1999, has repeatedly cited the post-Soviet enlargement of the NATO alliance eastwards towards Russia's borders as a reason for the invasion of Ukraine. The war, though, has fomented one of the biggest changes to Europe's security architecture for decades: once unthinkable moves by Sweden and Finland, which shares a 1,300 km (800 mile) border with Russia, to join the military alliance. "They should have no illusions that we will simply put up with it - and nor should Brussels, Washington and other NATO capitals," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying by the state RIA news agency. Ryabkov, who led talks with the United States on a doomed Russian proposal to halt NATO's eastward expansion, said the decisions by Helsinki and Stockholm to join the alliance were a mistake. "The general level of military tension will rise, predictability in this sphere will decrease. It is a shame that common sense is being sacrificed to some phantom provision about what should be done in this unfolding situation," Ryabkov said. Russia has given few clues about what it will do in response to the Nordic enlargement of NATO, saying merely that there would be a "military-technical response". One of Putin's closest allies said last month that Russia could deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO - founded in 1949 to provide European security against the Soviet Union - would be one of the biggest strategic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to date.
Nordic NATO?
The West says NATO - an alliance of 30 countries including former Warsaw Pact republics such as Poland and Hungary as well as nuclear powers the United States, Britain and France - is purely defensive. Moscow says NATO threatens Russia and that Washington has repeatedly ignored the Kremlin's concerns about the security of its borders in the West, the source of two devastating European invasions in 1812 and 1941. Finland gained independence from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during World War Two during which it lost territory. Sweden has not fought a war for 200 years. Foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy and nuclear disarmament. Putin says the "special military operation" in Ukraine is necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia through NATO enlargement and Moscow had to defend against the persecution of Russian-speaking people. Putin says assurances were given as the Soviet Union collapsed that the alliance would not expand eastwards towards Russia, a promise he says was a lie that humiliated Russia in its time of historic weakness. The United States and NATO dispute that such assurances were given explicitly. Kyiv and its Western backers say the claim of persecution of Russian speakers has been exaggerated by Moscow into a pretext for an unprovoked war against a sovereign state.

Egypt: Opposition Parties Coordinate Demands to Achieve Political Reform
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
Opposition parties in Egypt have begun coordinating to announce a unified position on their demands for “political reform.”Last month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi tasked the Youth National Conference, which operates under the umbrella of the Egyptian presidency’s National Training Academy (NTA), with coordinating with all political parties, movements and youth groups to hold political dialogue. He said the aim of the talks is to discuss the “priorities of national work at this current time.”The NTA sent last week invitations to representatives of all the political parties to attend the dialogue and opened the registration on the website of the National Youth Conference for those who wish to participate. The heads of 12 Egyptian parties, public figures and former parliamentarians held a meeting in Cairo on Saturday at the headquarters of the Conservative Party to declare a unified position on the call for dialogue and matters to be discussed.
Head of the Conservative Party Eng. Akmal Kortam said the participating civil society parties sought to determine concepts and demands rather than laying conditions. Meanwhile, Head of the Reform and Development Party Mohamed Anwar Sadat reiterated his demand for the Senate to sponsor the dialogue instead of the NTA. Sadat said the dialogue should cover political, social and economic issues and should be held under Sisi’s personal presence and supervision. Head of the Karama Party Ahmed Tantawi, for his part, said all what is required is a dialogue that allows all participants to express themselves freely in a way that serves Egyptian people. The list of parties that will be attending includes the Conservative party, the Egyptian Social Democratic party, the Reform and Development party, the Constitution party, the Karama party, the Egyptian Socialist party, the Socialist Popular Alliance part, and the Arab Democratic Nasserist Party, as well as a number of public and political figures. Farid Zahran of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party said all parties want to hold the dialogue in an atmosphere that can help it be a success, suggesting the release of all prisoners against whom there's no evidence of involvement in violence or terrorist acts.

Palestinian Authority Appeals to US to Stop Car Cable Project in Jerusalem
Jerusalem - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 16 May, 2022
The Palestinian Foreign Ministry on Sunday appealed to the US administration and international community, mainly UNESCO, to exert pressure on Israel to halt the construction of a cable car project in occupied East Jerusalem. On Sunday, Israeli and Palestinian opponents of an Israeli plan to run a cable car over Jerusalem to the walls of the Old City lost their Supreme Court case against a project they argued would alter its ancient landscape. A unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel disseminated by the Justice Ministry showed the court had decided against intervening to reverse the Israeli government's 2019 approval of the plan, saying proper planning procedures had been followed. In response, the Palestinian ministry said: “The cable car project is an integral part of Israel’s campaign to Judaize Jerusalem with a view to eroding its Palestinian, Islamic and Christian identity.”In a statement, it added that the court decision is also part of the Israel’s campaigns to change the existing historical, legal and demographic character of Jerusalem. On Sunday, lawyer Sami Arsheed told the Wadi Hilweh Information Center in Jerusalem that the Supreme Court surprisingly rejected the petitions against the car cable project, and instead, gave the green light to start its implementation despite the objections. The project involves the construction of a long cable car line from the First Station complex at the end of Emek Refaim Street, passing over Hinnom Valley to the Kedem compound in Silwan. The Foreign Ministry said the Israeli court’s decision is further evidence that the judicial and court system in the occupying country is part of the occupation itself. It accused Israel of working to serve its Judaization colonial schemes. “This is conclusive evidence that Israeli officials lie when claiming their keenness not to change the status quo in Jerusalem and its old city and holy sites,” the Ministry added. The Palestinians want East Jerusalem, which includes the Old City, as capital of a future state. Israel annexed the area after capturing it in the 1967 Middle East war and says the entire city is its eternal and indivisible capital.

Taliban dissolve Afghanistan's Human Rights Commission, other key bodies
Reuters/16 May ,2022
Taliban authorities in Afghanistan dissolved five key departments of the former US-backed government, including the country's Human Rights Commission, deeming them unnecessary in the face of a financial crunch, an official said on Monday.Afghanistan faces a budget deficit of 44 billion Afghanis ($501 million) this financial year, Taliban authorities said on Saturday as they announced their first annual national budget since taking over the war-torn country last August. “Because these departments were not deemed necessary and were not included in the budget, they have been dissolved,” Innamullah Samangani, the Taliban government's deputy spokesman, told Reuters. Also dissolved was the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), the once high-powered National Security Council, and the commission for overseeing the implementation of the Afghan constitution. The HCNR was last headed by former Afghan President Abdullah Abdullah, and was working to negotiate a peace between the US-backed government of former President Ashraf Ghani and the then-insurgent Taliban. In August 2021, 20 years after invading Afghanistan, foreign forces withdrew from the country leading to the collapse of the government and a Taliban takeover. Samangani said the national budget was “based on objective facts” and intended only for departments that had been active and productive. He added that the bodies could be reactivated in the future “if needed”.The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 with an iron fist and implemented a harsh version of Islamic rule, including banning women from education and work. After taking over last year, the Taliban assured the world they would be more moderate. However, they are yet to allow older girls to restart education, and have also introduced rules that mandate that women and girls wear veils and requiring them to have male relatives accompany them in public places.

Joint declaration following the third EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee meeting
May 16, 2022 – Brussels, Belgium - Global Affairs Canada
1. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice President of the Commission (HR/VP), Josep Borrell, and Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly, met today in Brussels for the Third Joint Ministerial Committee (JMC) under the EU–Canada Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). Recalling the EU-Canada Summit Joint Statement of June 2021, the Joint Ministerial Committee reviewed and charted the way ahead in the EU–Canada relationship, which represents a force for stability and prosperity in the transatlantic area and beyond.
2. Five years ago, the SPA began to be provisionally applied, strengthening the ability of the EU and Canada to address issues of vital importance to their societies and the world through cooperation and dialogue. Guided by shared values for human rights, gender equality, democracy and respect for the rule of law, the JMC reaffirmed today the resolve of the EU and Canada to further deepen bilateral and multilateral collaboration to build a safer, more secure, more just, more inclusive, and more sustainable and healthy world.
3. The JMC received the annual report on the state of EU-Canada relations of the last SPA Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) of senior officials, and its recommendations. The annual report demonstrated both the depth and breadth of EU-Canada cooperation, ever more important in today’s challenging world.
International Peace and Security
4. Over the past five years, the EU and Canada have significantly intensified cooperation on foreign and security policy. The JMC reaffirmed the importance of the transatlantic bond, including the EU-Canada and the EU-NATO strategic partnerships, as key to our overall security, and pledged to continue to cooperate jointly to promote peace and security while addressing threats to democracy, human rights and the rule of law.
5. In Ukraine, Russia has grossly violated international law with its attack on European and global security. The JMC strongly condemned Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable military aggression against Ukraine, its horrific massacres of innocent civilians in contravention of international humanitarian law in places such as Bucha and Kramatorsk that are currently being investigated, and its continued attacks against Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The EU and Canada, together with like-minded partners will continue to support all measures to ensure accountability for human rights violations, war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian law in Ukraine. The JMC called on Russia to cease military operations immediately, to withdraw all of its forces unconditionally from the entire territory of Ukraine, and to fully respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence within its internationally recognised borders including its territorial sea. The JMC equally condemned the involvement of the illegitimate Lukashenko regime in Belarus in this aggression against Ukraine. The EU and Canada, together with like-minded partners, continue to call on Russia to stop its aggression, start to respect international humanitarian law, and pursue a path of good-faith diplomacy and dialogue.
6. The EU and Canada stand resolutely together and will continue to respond decisively to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, through coordinated hard-hitting sanctions and by providing political, financial, material and humanitarian support to the people, the government and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The JMC affirmed our readiness to contribute to the post-war recovery and rehabilitation of Ukraine, as well as our commitment to work to alleviate the impact of Russia’s war on global food security.
7. The JMC noted the enormous refugee crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with more than 5.3 million refugees arriving in the EU and over 7.7 million Internally Displaced Persons in Ukraine. The EU and Canada have each committed considerable resources to humanitarian assistance in Ukraine and the region, and have taken extraordinary measures to ensure protection and facilitate travel for refugees in our respective territories. The JMC agreed to strengthen coordination to ensure the needs of the refugees are met, while also helping host countries respond to associated challenges. The JMC praised the efforts of the EU Member States and the Republic of Moldova in this respect, and agreed to work alongside partners to strengthen the resilience of the Republic of Moldova and other eastern partnership countries.
8. The JMC emphasised the importance of close consultation and cooperation in relation to China, guided by shared values and interests, aiming at coherence and impact. This entails addressing all aspects of our respective relations with China, including responsible management of the challenges China poses, based on interests, principles and the respect of international law, while exploring ways to deepen cooperation on key global challenges such as climate change and global health. The JMC also reiterated the importance of China respecting human rights and fundamental freedoms and the international rules-based order including global trade rules. The JMC further acknowledged that a free, open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific region is vital to address common global challenges. As such, the JMC affirmed the importance of working together with partners in the Indo-Pacific region, and recommended identifying future areas of EU-Canada cooperation in the region through regular exchanges over the coming year, including but not limited, to sustainable development and prosperity, climate change and biodiversity ocean governance, digital governance, connectivity, and security and defence.
9. The JMC stressed that the EU and Canada will work together to ensure continued focus of the international community on the humanitarian and economic crisis in Afghanistan, and direct concrete support for the basic needs of the Afghan people, including by calling on the Taliban to allow the full, safe, and unhindered access of humanitarian aid. The JMC condemned the recent secondary school ban for girls by the Taliban, which is a violation of the fundamental right to education for all children, and called on the Taliban to implement in full UNSCR 2593, including the respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms of all persons, particularly women, children and persons belonging to minorities, and their full participation in all spheres of public life. The JMC also called for the establishment of an inclusive and representative government and reiterated the demand on the Taliban to sever ties with Al Qaeda and all other terrorist groups and ensure that Afghan territory will not be used as a safe haven for terrorism.
10. The JMC also reiterated the commitment to cooperate closely on Latin America and Caribbean matters, focusing on: economic challenges following the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine; political challenges related to democracy, protection ofand respect for human rights and governance; and structural challenges related to climate change, public safety, organised crime and irregular migration. The EU and Canada remain committed to alleviate the plight of the people of Venezuela and support Venezuelan-led efforts to find a peaceful and democratic solution to the lasting crisis. The recommendations of the EU Election Observation Mission report presented on 22 February 2022, aim to improve future electoral processes, at all levels. The EU and Canada call on all parties to return to the negotiation table in Mexico City. The EU and Canada also reaffirmed their commitment to continue supporting the people of Nicaragua in their right to decide their country’s destiny and reiterated their call for the immediate release of all political prisoners and the dismissal of all legal proceedings against them. The EU and Canada expressed concern about the lengthy sentences being handed down in Cuba against peaceful protestors, and urged Cuba to respect and fully protect the rights of all individuals to peaceful assembly and freedom of opinion and expression, and to ensure due process and transparency, in accordance with international standards, with respect to the ongoing trials. They also reiterated their commitment to coordinate closely with partners in supporting the people of Haiti in their efforts to build a more resilient and equitable future, by paving the way for an inclusive political dialogue, free and fair elections, institutional restoration and rule of law.
11. The JMC reaffirmed the EU and Canada’s commitment to coordinate their action in the Sahel region, alongside international and regional organizations and countries of the region, in order to improve security, foster the protection of human rights and contribute to sustainable development benefiting the local populations.
12. The JMC acknowledged the growing geostrategic importance of the Arctic, the specific vulnerability of its ecosystems, its unique role in moderating global climate and the common aim for it to remain a peaceful and stable region of constructive cooperation. The core principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, based on international law, have long underpinned the close collaboration of Canada and the EU in the Arctic. In light of Russia’s flagrant disregard for these principles, it is more important than ever that we work together to cooperate on Arctic issues. The JMC reaffirmed the EU and Canada’s determination to strengthen cooperation to make the Arctic more resilient; to address the impacts of climate change on the Arctic’s environment, economy and people, including Indigenous Peoples and their knowledge; and to foster inclusive and sustainable economic development to the benefit of all those living in the Arctic
13. The JMC recognised Canada’s long-standing contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian and/or military missions over the years, and welcomed Canada’s recent participation in the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) project on military mobility. The JMC highlighted the potential for more cooperation on security and defence issues, including on conflict prevention and mediation, Women Peace and Security (WPS) and Climate and Security. The JMC reaffirmed the importance of further strengthening and deepening the mutually reinforcing and beneficial EU-NATO partnership, while fully respecting the principles of inclusiveness, reciprocity and decision-making autonomy. On cybersecurity, the EU and Canada pledged to continue to advance the application of international law, norms of responsible state behavior, confidence building measures and capacity-building initiatives, including in the UN through the establishment of the UN Programme of Action to Advance Responsible State Behaviour in Cyberspace.
14. The JMC recommended reinforcing consular cooperation in particular in times of crises and welcomed the EU’s intention to support Canada’s Partnership Action Plan under the Declaration against Arbitrary Detention in State-to-State relations of 15 February 2021, on a voluntary basis. In particular, the parties intend to jointly supporting research on key aspects of arbitrary detention to facilitate further work in this important area.
15. The JMC also reaffirmed the importance of cooperation in responding to disasters and international humanitarian crises, including by promoting respect for international humanitarian law and human rights law and a better sharing of responsibility in addressing growing humanitarian needs globally. The JMC welcomed Canada's exploration of avenues to work with the European Emergency Response Coordination Centre and the Civil Protection Mechanism hubs in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to help channel assistance to Ukraine. It also recommended strengthening cooperation on promoting a sustainable global recovery, in particular through the regular policy dialogue on development cooperation under the SPA.
16. The JMC reaffirmed the commitment of the EU and Canada to conclude a new EU-Canada Passenger Name Record (PNR) Agreement as soon as possible, and recognised the importance of this Agreement in providing a solid basis for the transfer and use of PNR data to prevent and fight terrorism and serious crime while respecting privacy and protecting personal data.
International rules based order, Democracy and Human Rights
17. The JMC reaffirmed the resolve of the EU and Canada to: sustain and reinforce the rules based international order and its multilateral institutions; protect the rule of law; and defend international law, democracy and the universality and indivisibility of human rights, all of which are being increasingly called into question by authoritarian regimes. The JMC noted with appreciation the report of the UN Secretary-General entitled “Our Common Agenda” including the “New Agenda for Peace”, and underlined our shared commitment to support effective implementation of initiatives proposed by the report, in particular UN actions across the full spectrum of tools within the UN peace and security architecture. To that end, the JMC welcomed Canada’s participation in the EU Election Observation Missions in Iraq and Honduras and proposed to step up cooperation in this area in the future.
18. The JMC also stressed the rising threats stemming from the deterioration of democracy and shrinking of civic space on a global scale and the spread of foreign information manipulation, including disinformation. The JMC confirmed its commitment to defending a free, open, stable and secure global internet, particularly in light of the Russian government’s efforts to manipulate the information environment abroad while denying its own citizens free access to information. To that end, the JMC welcomed the intention of the EU and Canada to co-lead efforts within the G7 Rapid Response Mechanism (G7 RRM) and to scope potential for multi-stakeholder engagement towards the development of international norms on foreign information manipulation and interference. In that regard, the EU and Canada committed to convening a series of expert tables over the course of 2022 to identify the way forward in advancing norms development.
19. The JMC acknowledged the importance of cooperating in the areas of freedom, security, and justice and affirmed the intention of the EU and Canada to deepen cooperation on matters of mutual interest. It also emphasised the importance of working together to promote good governance and combat inequalities and discrimination. This includes by protecting human rights defenders and civil society organisations, and promoting human rights and fundamental freedoms, including freedom of religion or belief, freedom of expression, women’s and girls’ enjoyment of human rights , gender equality, the rights of the child, the rights of persons with disabilities, and the rights of LGBTI persons.
Economy, Technology and Research
20. The EU and Canada re-affirmed their commitment to promote a rules-based international economic order. Almost five years of provisional application of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has brought tangible benefits to EU and Canadian citizens and businesses, by creating more opportunities, promoting inclusive growth and setting high environmental and labour standards. EU-Canada trade was 30% higher in 2021 than before CETA entered into provisional application. Furthermore, CETA is contributing to strengthening the resilience of our economies and supporting post-Covid-19 recovery. CETA is also reinforcing strategic industrial links between the EU and Canada and providing a solid pillar for international supply chains in a context of high geopolitical instability. In this vein, the EU and Canada committed to ensuring the full and effective implementation of CETA and to pursuing joint work, including on outreach, to increase the use of the Agreement.
21. The EU and Canada will also step up efforts to promote trade and investment in green goods and services and use CETA as a facilitator towards the green and digital transitions of both economies. In this context, the JMC emphasised the importance of the upcoming CETA Clean Tech Summit to be hosted by Canada in 2022, which will explore how CETA can contribute to sustainable development, energy security, and the green transition of the EU and Canadian economies.
22. The JMC also acknowledged that the digital economy and emerging technologies have the potential to transform societies and bring about remarkable economic opportunities. Based on a shared commitment to a human-centered digital agenda, the JMC welcomed the deepening of digital cooperation between the EU and Canada through the recently established Digital Dialogue under the SPA and the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI). The cooperation aims to harness rapid technological change and address issues of common interest in the digital transition of our economies and societies. The EU and Canada will also explore the possibility of developing genuine synergies between the green and digital agendas – twin political priorities of both the EU and Canada. The JMC noted that in the area of taxation, both the EU and Canada strongly support international efforts to end the corporate tax race to the bottom and to ensure that all corporations pay their fair share. In this context, the EU and Canada re-affirmed their commitment to implement the Two-Pillar Solution to Address the Tax Challenges Arising from the Digitalisation of the Economy, as agreed by the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework.
23. A key priority for both the EU and Canada is to ensure the security of supply chains for minerals and metals that are critical to achieving the transition to climate-neutral and digitalised economies. To this end, the JMC acknowledged the progress made in the implementation of the action plan of the Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials established between the EU and Canada in June 2021. The JMC stressed the importance of further deepening this cooperation, notably by increasing value chain integration and resilience, particularly important in the current insecure geopolitical context.
24. The WTO is central to the rules based international trading system but is facing unprecedented challenges. The JMC therefore highlighted the longstanding cooperation between the EU and Canada in the WTO, where both sides are committed to working together to secure the rules-based international trading system, including a successful MC12 in June that delivers results across all key issues, such as WTO reform, trade and health, fisheries’ subsidies and agriculture.
25. Recognising the central role of knowledge in addressing global challenges and in propelling advancement in our societies, the EU and Canada committed to further deepening cooperation in the field of science, technology, research and innovation. The JMC stressed the importance of continuing to support strong bilateral R&I cooperation and welcomed the conclusion of exploratory discussions and the preparations for negotiations on the potential association of Canada to the Horizon Europe Programme. The EU and Canada will step up efforts to cooperate on standardisation in strategic areas and coordinate positions in international standardisation bodies. The JMC also encouraged the training, career development and mobility of researchers and cross-border knowledge exchange. It also acknowledged the instrumental role of the EU’s Financial Instruments, such as NDICI, in facilitating EU and Canada policy dialogues and promoting people-to-people cooperation.
26. The JMC also noted the considerable progress achieved in the area of space cooperation and in particular the signature, today, of a cooperation arrangement between the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and the European Commission to pursue Earth observation activities in a number of areas of common interest, through sharing satellite data on the basis of reciprocity.
Health, Climate, Energy and Environment
27. The EU and Canada are working together to end the Covid-19 pandemic, at all levels and notably within multilateral frameworks such as the WHO, G7 and G20. The JMC welcomed the continuation of in-depth cooperation to address broader health issues through the initiation of an EU- Canada high-level health dialogue under SPA. Priority was given to issues of mutual interest affecting citizens’ well-being such as pandemic preparedness and response to public-health emergencies, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR), in the context of TATFAR, and mental health. The EU and Canada will continue to explore possibilities for the interoperability between their digital COVID certificate systems.
28. The EU and Canada emphasised the urgency of addressing climate change, acknowledging that it is an existential threat. The JMC recognised the key role of the EU and Canada’s in leading global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fostering a global net zero emissions economy by 2050. They also recognised the importance of continuing to ensure that plurilateral platforms such as the G7 and G20 demonstrate the leadership of major economies in reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. The JMC underlined the importance of implementing the decisions taken, and commitments made, at COP26.
29. The JMC called on all Parties to the Paris Agreement to continue their efforts to phase out unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, as an integral part of the work to address climate change. The EU and Canada also urged all Parties, and in particular, G20 countries, whose current 2030 and Long Term targets are not compatible with the temperature goals to increase, their climate ambition by COP27 so global warming is limited to 1.5°C. In this context, the JMC is looking forward to the 6th session of the Ministerial on Climate Action (MoCA) in the run-up to COP27. The JMC confirmed the willingness of the EU and Canada to coordinate on respective approaches to carbon pricing and carbon border adjustments to prevent carbon leakage in a WTO compatible way and to accelerate global climate action. The JMC also confirmed the intention of the EU and Canada to work together to engage international partners to expand the global coverage of carbon pricing as an efficient, cost-effective and powerful tool to reduce emissions and stimulate clean innovation.
30. The JMC underlined the joint commitment of the EU and Canada to support the most vulnerable countries against climate change threats and to deliver on climate finance objectives. This includes by continuing to contribute to the collective goals of developed countries to at least double the collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing countries from 2019 levels by 2025, and to mobilize jointly $100 billion per year as soon as possible in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation. Prospective opportunities for coordination and synergies, such as in the framework of the Great Green Wall (GGW) Initiative in the Sahel, were also underlined.
31. The JMC confirmed the EU and Canada’s intention to work actively and collaboratively to promote energy security while deepening cooperation on our mutual net-zero energy transition notably through the EU-Canada High Level Energy Dialogue (HLED). The next HLED meeting will take place in the second half of 2022 to discuss priority engagement supporting this transition both bilaterally and globally. The HLED will also promote, where possible, triangular Canada-EU-U.S. cooperation. The EU and Canada reaffirmed their commitment to advancing energy security cooperation through a specific working group under HLED, the Canada-EU energy security working group, which was announced by Commission President von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau on March 23 and which has begun to meet. The JMC also welcomed the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) initiative on “Empowering People: Skills & Inclusivity for Just Transitions” launched in June 2021, and looked forward to its continued implementation.
32. The JMC recalled the close link between climate change, biodiversity loss and food systems and emphasised the strong convergence of views between the EU and Canada on these crucial matters. The EU and Canada pledged to work together to ensure an ambitious outcome of the negotiations of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The EU and Canada also reaffirmed their commitment to the transition towards more resource-efficient and circular economies, building notably on their membership of the Global Alliance on Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency (GACERE), as well as relevant engagement within G7 and G20. The EU and Canada also reaffirmed support for the important work by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) to tackle pollution, including the recent UNEA resolution to end plastic pollution. They also pledged to continue working together towards an ambitious outcome of the negotiations to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment, based-on a comprehensive approach that addresses the full lifecycle of plastics.
33. Acknowledging that ocean governance is a shared challenge and responsibility, and that only international cooperation can ensure the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, their resources and ecosystems, the JMC also recalled the launch of the EU-Canada Ocean Partnership Forum at the EU-Canada Summit of June 2021, aimed at reinforcing cooperation on promoting ocean sustainability through joint initiatives. The JMC emphasised the importance of the upcoming UN Ocean Conference (27 June to 1 July 2022), as a unique occasion to achieve further progress on the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14, the conservation of our Oceans, and the transition to a sustainable blue economy. The participation of Canada in the High Ambition Coalition on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ), launched by the EU at the One Ocean Summit on 11 February 2022, demonstrates a joint commitment to conclude negotiations in 2022 and to ensure an ambitious, effective, inclusive, fair, balanced and future-proofed BBNJ under the auspices of the United Nations.
34. The EU and Canada looked forward to jointly implementing the various initiatives announced today and to further expanding our cooperation to contribute positively to the lives of people in Europe and Canada, as well as of the global community.

Canada/Minister Joly concludes trip to Germany and Belgium
May 16, 2022 - Berlin, Germany - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today concluded a productive trip to Germany where she participated in multilateral and bilateral discussions at the G7 and NATO foreign ministers’ meetings.
At the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Wangels, Germany, Minister Joly reaffirmed Canada’s commitment to a coordinated approach on the most pressing issues facing the international community today. Ministers discussed the growing food and energy security crises, which are a threat to vulnerable populations around the world and to global peace and stability and are a direct result of the Russian regime’s reckless actions in Ukraine. They pledged to continue working together to support Ukraine and its courageous people in response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable invasion of their country. Minister Joly and her counterparts also agreed to continue working closely together on the fight against climate change, a sustainable and fair recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and peace and security issues in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
In Berlin, NATO foreign ministers gathered to discuss shared priorities, including the impact of President Putin’s war, the gravest threat to global security in decades. They also reviewed NATO’s evolving security and defence priorities and identified strategies to adapt to them successfully in preparation for the NATO Leaders’ Summit that will be held in Madrid this June. Given Finland’s and Sweden’s aspirations to join the Alliance, NATO foreign ministers met with them to underscore NATO’s “open door” policy.
Minister Joly met with a number of her counterparts on the margins of her meetings in Germany. She highlighted Canada’s unshakeable resolve to uphold the international rules-based order alongside its likeminded allies and partners. The Minister also reiterated Canada’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine and to NATO’s collective defence.
Minister Joly visited Brussels, Belgium, on May 16, to participate in the Joint Ministerial Committee Meeting under the Canada-EU Strategic Partnership Agreement with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and the member states of the European Union. While in Brussels, she also attended a meeting of the European Union Foreign Affairs Committee, alongside Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, where she highlighted the strong relationship between Canada and the EU, our close cooperation to support Ukraine and its people, and our collective determination to build a safer and more secure world.
Quotes
“President Putin’s war of choice is an unprecedented threat to world security and yet, it will fail. Putin sought to divide our Allies but we are more united than ever. In discussions with my G7, NATO, and EU counterparts, I reiterated Canada’s commitment to work together to hold Putin’s regime to account, adapt to global challenges and to protect the values we hold dear.”
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
Since the beginning of 2022, Canada has committed $245 million in humanitarian assistance to respond to the worsening humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and neighbouring countries. Of this, $170 million has been allocated to United Nations organizations, the Red Cross Movement and to non-governmental organizations.
Since Russia’s illegal occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea in 2014, Canada has imposed sanctions on more than 1,400 individuals and entities. Many of these sanctions have been undertaken in coordination with Canada’s allies and partners. Canada’s latest sanctions impose asset freezes and prohibitions on listed individuals and entities.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 16-17/2022
A Long, Painful Transitional Period Towards New Maps and Countries
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
During a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee a few days ago, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said that “China is working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention” and that pressure on the island will remain “acute” between now and 2030.
Regardless of this prediction’s accuracy, we are currently seeing the war Russia is waging on Ukraine, which only few of us had expected, unfold. This war, the second in just seven years, came with geographical implications for the east of the country and the island of Crimea. No one knows the final shape that Ukraine’s map will take once the artillery and missiles fall silent.
Another vicious war has been ongoing since 2020 in Ethiopia, and it came with the shocking images of death, hunger, devastation, displacement, drought and desertification that have become familiar in the Horn of Africa. Today, it is said, with plenty of justified skepticism and few concrete guarantees, that the “Humanitarian Truce” announced by Addis Ababa on March 25 will end the conflict. However, the nature of the war, that is, the fact that it is being fought between the country’s central authority and the Tigray region, suggests that the truce could open the door to major changes to the map. Something of the sort cannot be ruled out in Somalia either, Ethiopia’s neighbor with a long history of civil division and strife.
The situation we see in many Arab countries today tells us a lot about maps, and that these countries may not reach the light at the end of their dark tunnels, if they ever do, until their maps are altered.
Syria, Yemen and Libya, which saw popular revolutions being crushed as civil wars and foreign interventions devastated their towns and cities, are examples of this. However, Lebanon and Iraq, where external interference is extremely robust and internal cohesion is extremely brittle, offer two other glaring examples. The calls for federalism, decentralization and other similar frameworks sufficiently demonstrate the insufficiency of the frameworks currently in place.
One could say that we are undergoing a long, painful transitional phase toward new maps. This transition has a particular name; these countries are converted into “arenas”, in which an infinite number of domestic and foreign forces fight among themselves simultaneously. For example, one commentator recently noted that while Israel was also bombing Quneitra in southern Syria, Turkey was bombing Ain al-Arab in northern Syria, and Iran was bombing Erbil in northern Iraq. This is what the stages of this anxious transition look like, and this is the rhythm life takes in its “arenas.”
In fact, reviewing countries’ maps often follows major wars and how those wars engineer a new world: After the First World War, as we well know, empires collapsed, and their vast territories were divided into nascent states. After the Second World War, independent states emerged in the place of colonies. After the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia collapsed and disintegrated. Czechoslovakia became the Czech Republic and Slovakia once again. Germany, on the other hand, saw its pre-World War II unity restored.
However, the Cold War ending had other implications for our region and those like it that are particularly palpable today. Countries that had been unable to consolidate domestic legitimacy through any other means than exploiting the Cold War’s dynamics and polarization either fell or staggered, and it was not surprising that the term “failed states,” which has been applied across all continents, was coined during this period.
However, for weak states ravaged by a blend of despotism, poverty, and civil strife, this challenge was made even more difficult by the fact that globalization weakened these political bodies and their functions further. The nation-state, which had prevailed around the globe between the mid-1940s and the mid-1980s, is thus no longer the “natural” building block of a political-economic system. As for modernization and the ideas about development that sprung from it (including socialist development), the state is no longer necessarily their locomotive or tool.
The globalization of wealth creation came with neither the globalization of wealth redistribution nor political globalization in the form of global governance. Today, this outcome is most clearly and unambiguously manifested in the weakness of the United Nations, its organizations and agencies.
Moreover, while Cold War conflicts were resolved through conflicting local forces working under the supervision, direct or circuitous, of the two “great powers” who would delegate the task to the United Nations, during the 1990s, the Security Council authorized no less than 40 peacekeeping missions around the globe.
Added to all of this, and as we await the crystallization of the post-Ukrainian war world, are the ramifications of the United States’ laxity in meeting its global responsibilities and the exacerbation of its isolationist tendencies as it walks away from every battle that is not part of the “fight against terror.” Given the way in which we have seen this battle being waged, it will, in all likelihood, exacerbate the rifts and deficiencies of many countries and societies, as well as raise the human costs of curbing this symptom whose causes are overlooked by those fighting it.
In any case, even if we put the millions who have migrated or been displaced aside, we see growing numbers of those who still reside in their countries asking themselves: What will be the name of the country we could find ourselves in tomorrow?

America and Its Allies Want to Bleed Russia. They Really Shouldn’t.
Tom Stevenson/The New York Times/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase.
It is no secret that the initial invasion went badly for Russia. Expecting easy victories, the Russian Army inflicted terrible destruction — especially in its shelling of cities — but for the most part failed to take territory outside the southeast of the country. Ukrainian resistance was fierce. After six weeks of war, undermanned Russian forces were made to retreat from Kyiv and its suburbs.
In the hope of winning new victories, Russia has now confined its forces to the south and east of Ukraine. The main battles are taking place in small towns and villages along the Donets River. Russia talks of cutting off the Ukrainian Army from the Donbas, but so far, its forces have made slow progress advancing from the Black Sea coast.
In response, the United States and its allies have also shifted their position. At first, the Western support for Ukraine was mainly designed to defend against the invasion. It is now set on a far grander ambition: to weaken Russia itself. Presented as a common-sense response to Russian aggression, the shift, in fact, amounts to a significant escalation.
By expanding support to Ukraine across the board and shelving any diplomatic effort to stop the fighting, the United States and its allies have greatly increased the danger of an even larger conflict. They are taking a risk far out of step with any realistic strategic gain.
Russia’s more limited focus has proved more manageable for its armed forces. The bloody siege of Mariupol is, for practical purposes, now complete, and Russia has secured the town of Izium while bombarding minor cities. But these advances, which have come at a cost, are limited. The likelihood of Russian territorial advances far from Crimea or the Donbas is now remote.
The shift from general to limited conquest was already a concession on Russia’s part. The Russian leadership has blamed a single factor: It claims to be fighting not just Ukraine but the NATO system in Eastern Europe. Hubris and clumsy tactics are more to the point. Yet there is no denying that the United States, Britain, Poland and other European NATO members have been parties to the conflict from the outset.
It is not just military transports and trucks carrying tens of thousands of antiaircraft and antiarmor weapons to Ukrainian fighters. The United States has also provided real-time intelligence, reportedly including targeting information on the location of Russian forces. Though the Pentagon has disputed the extent of intelligence sharing, leaks have been remarkably revealing. We now know the United States provided the tracking intelligence that led to the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. More striking still, US intelligence agencies provided critical targeting for battlefield assassinations of Russian generals.
This was already a significant form of participation in the war. But the United States has since shifted its strategy to push Russia further. The early US response to the invasion was simple: Supply the defenders and apply America’s unique financial weaponry to the Russian economy. The new strategy — call it bleed Russia — is quite different. The underlying idea is that the United States and its allies should seek to recover more from the rubble of Kharkiv and Kramatorsk than the survival of Ukraine as a polity or even a symbolic frustration of Russian aggression.
Top officials have made that quite clear. The US secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin, has said the goal is “to see Russia weakened.” The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, said Ukraine is defending “democracy writ large for the world.” Britain’s foreign minister, Liz Truss, was explicit about widening the conflict to take in Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia, such as Crimea, when she spoke of evicting Russia from “the whole of Ukraine.” This is both an expansion of the battlefield and a transformation of the war.
Whereas once the primary Western objective was to defend against the invasion, it has become the permanent strategic attrition of Russia. The outline of the new policy began to emerge on April 13, when the Pentagon called a convocation of the eight biggest American arms companies to prepare arms transfers on a grand scale. The result was the pledge made by President Biden on April 28 that the United States would provide four times as much military aid to Ukraine as it had already supplied since the beginning of the conflict — a promise made good by a proposed aid package for Ukraine worth $39.8 billion.
This strategic shift has coincided with the abandonment of diplomatic efforts. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia were always fraught but contained moments of promise. They have now stalled completely. Russia bears its fair share of responsibility, of course. But European channels to Moscow have been all but severed, and there is no serious effort from the United States to seek diplomatic progress, let alone cease-fires.
When I was in Ukraine during the first weeks of the war, even staunch Ukrainian nationalists expressed views far more pragmatic than those that are routine in America now. Talk of neutral status for Ukraine and internationally monitored plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk has been jettisoned in favor of bombast and grandstanding.
The war was dangerous and destructive enough in its initial form. The combination of expanded strategic aims and scotched negotiations has made it more dangerous still. At present, the only message to Russia is: There is no way out. Though President Vladimir Putin did not declare general conscription in his Victory Day speech on May 9, a conventional escalation of this kind is still possible.
Nuclear weapons are discussed in easy tones, not least on Russian television. The risk of cities being reduced to corium remains low without NATO deployment in Ukraine, but accident and miscalculation cannot be discounted. And the conflict takes place at a time when most of the Cold War arms control agreements between the United States and Russia have been allowed to lapse.
A weakened Russia was a likely outcome of the war even before the shift in US policy. Russia’s economic position has deteriorated. Far from a commodity superpower, its undersized domestic industry is struggling and is dependent on technology imports that are now inaccessible.
What’s more, the invasion has led directly to greater military spending in second- and third-tier European powers. The number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe has grown tenfold, and a Nordic expansion of the organization is likely. A general rearmament of Europe is taking place, driven not by desire for autonomy from American power but in service to it. For the United States, this should be success enough. It is unclear what more there is to gain by weakening Russia, beyond fantasies of regime change.
Ukraine’s future depends on the course of the fighting in the Donbas and perhaps the south. The physical destruction of the east is already well underway. Ukrainian casualties are not insignificant; estimates of the number killed and wounded vary widely, but it is certainly in the tens of thousands. Russia has destroyed whatever sense of shared heritage remained before the invasion.
But the longer the war, the worse the damage to Ukraine and the greater the risk of escalation. A decisive military result in eastern Ukraine may prove elusive. Yet the less dramatic outcome of a festering stalemate is hardly better. Indefinite protraction of the war, as in Syria, is too dangerous with nuclear-armed participants.
Diplomatic efforts ought to be the centerpiece of a new Ukraine strategy. Instead, the war’s boundaries are being expanded and the war itself recast as a struggle between democracy and autocracy, in which the Donbas is the frontier of freedom. This is not just declamatory extravagance. It is reckless. The risks hardly need to be stated.

Biden Can Do Much More to Fight Inflation
Matthew Yglesias/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
When it comes to inflation, President Joe Biden gets two big things right — and a lot of little things wrong. Unfortunately, for both his administration and Americans adversely affected by higher prices, the little things add up.
The administration’s message on inflation is broadly correct on two fronts: If Congress adopted its ideas on tax policy, it would help reduce inflation. And the only idea Republicans have put on the table is a proposal by Senator Rick Scott to punish the poor.
But when the administration lets it be known that “the president is committed to doing everything he can to lower prices” and the president himself says fighting inflation is his “top domestic priority,” it’s hard to take them seriously. It’s clear from news reports and my own conversations with officials that inflation-fighting is not, in fact, considered a top priority.
The most clear-cut example of this is the ongoing indecision over what to do about student loan debt. During the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, the federal government suspended student loan payments. At the time, this was a useful economic stimulus measure, but it’s been repeatedly extended and the US is currently suffering from too much fiscal stimulus. The politics of how to restart payments and how much debt to forgive are complicated. But the economic analysis is simple — resuming payments fights inflation, and outright forgiveness fuels it.
That’s on the demand side of the economy. The bigger issue is on the supply side.
In his State of the Union address last March, Biden observed that “one way to fight inflation is to drive down wages and make Americans poorer.” He promised that he had “a better plan to fight inflation: Lower your costs, not your wages. Make more cars and semiconductors in America, more infrastructure and innovation in America.”
It was a great applause line, but it reveals a profound ambiguity in Bidenist thought.
The more accurate version of what he’s saying is that the US needs ideas to increase its productive capacity. For most of the past 20 years, America’s actual gross domestic product has been less than its potential GDP because it suffered from a shortfall of demand. Now that demand shortfall is gone — which is a great policy achievement — and so further growth will have to come from increased potential. Investments in infrastructure should help accomplish that.
But Biden’s words can also be read as a call for more protectionism.
This ambiguity is evident in the Commerce Department’s investigation into whether Chinese-made solar panels are being sold too cheaply in the US. Enforcing anti-dumping rules could help spur domestic manufacturing of solar panels. But it would also raise costs to the domestic solar industry, stalling dozens of large-scale projects. More solar panels would be made in the US, but they would make less solar electricity and face higher prices.
At the Department of Transportation, meanwhile, the Federal Railroad Administration is trying to re-impose a rule that would require two-person crews to operate freight trains. This is an idea that was promulgated in the waning days of President Barack Obama’s administration as a safety measure, then rescinded by Donald Trump’s administration.
Even under Obama, the safety benefits of this idea were dubious, because raising freight rail costs pushes products onto trucks, which are inherently less safe. But back then, this kind of giveaway to a unionized industry was seen as a useful job-creation measure in an economy plagued by weak demand and labor market slack. Now the US needs a new approach that emphasizes tedious technocratic concerns and efficiency.
The 800-pound gorilla in this regard is revisiting Trump-era tariff policy.
One reliable estimate is that rescinding these tariffs could knock 1.3 percentage points off inflation. Even if that’s optimistic, there’s no doubt about the direction of change: Tariffs mechanically increase prices by taxing products.
The upside is supposed to be that this protects jobs. But in an inflationary climate, protecting jobs is bad. If the US imports goods from abroad instead of making them domestically, that frees up Americans to make even more things at home. But the Biden administration has generally taken the opposite view — expanding longstanding Buy America rules in procurement and contracting as if the country is currently desperate for employment opportunities.
All of these issues and policies, to be clear, are being debated within the Biden administration. But not everyone seems to have gotten the memo that combatting inflation is the top priority.
On some issues, perhaps, it shouldn’t be. Biden’s efforts to help Ukraine secure its independence have been inflationary in a number of respects, but he’s decided that’s a price worth paying to secure important foreign policy goals. Cutting Social Security or SNAP benefits would reduce inflation, but would accomplish those goals by immiserating the poor and elderly. Not even a very inflation-averse public wants inflation reduction by any means necessary.
Still, rising inflation is the top problem facing the country right now — so it should serve as a trump card in most policy disputes. The president ought to outline a small number of goals that he holds as more important than combatting inflation and then clearly communicate to his cabinet that, on everything else, fighting inflation is Job No. 1.
In many cases the scale of the impact may be relatively modest. But in the aggregate, it will matter if the government resolves scores of tradeoffs between efficiency and other goals in favor of efficiency. On a wide range of issues — the Jones Act, ethanol blending rules, the interpretation of prevailing wage doctrines, even immigration policy — the right decision is the one that minimizes inflation.
The White House says it agrees with this proposition. It just needs to start acting on it.

Biden must decide what ‘victory’ in Ukraine means — and if he’ll do what it takes to win it
John Bolton/New York Post/May 16/2022
President Joe Biden’s responses to Russia’s attack on Ukraine comprise a series of failures.
First, he failed to deter the invasion itself, the devastating consequences of which are unfolding daily. Second, US intelligence grossly overestimated Russia’s military competence, briefing Congress that Kyiv would fall in days and the whole country in weeks.
Third, US and allied assistance has repeatedly been behind the curve, with Ukraine saved primarily by its own soldiers’ grit and Russian military ineptitude.
Congress is nearing approval of $40 billion in new aid. Many now talk not merely of “saving” Ukraine but of “victory.” Of course, it would be helpful to know what we mean by that.
Without defining our objectives (and Ukraine’s) more precisely, we will remain in today’s semi-coherent muddle, even as we enter what Ukraine’s defense minister calls a “new, long phase of the war.”
Moscow’s unprovoked aggression launched a war primarily about territory. President Vladimir Putin and many Russians believe Ukraine and other Soviet territories were illegitimately sundered from the rodina, Mother Russia, and they want them back. Ukrainians, with equal passion and far more justification, want full sovereignty and territorial integrity, as mutually agreed among all Soviet republics when the USSR dissolved on Dec. 31, 1991.
Defining “victory” is becoming more urgent. Last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to consider an immediate cease-fire, which Moscow undoubtedly saw as a sign of weakness. At a minimum, before negotiations start, we should know what we are negotiating for, which at the moment we do not.
Importantly, defining “victory,” or at least agreeing upon a common set of Ukrainian-NATO goals, is where allied unity is most likely to fracture irreparably.
Putin knows this for a certainty. The veneer of alliance unity, incessantly touted by the Biden administration and its media scriveners, already conceals enormous differences in the strategy and implementation of both economic sanctions and military assistance.
While acceptably resolving the conflict requires settling many contentious issues — Russian reparations and accountability and Russia’s post-conflict relations with the West to name a few — the major dispute is over territory and sovereignty. We can predict, as can Putin, that many of our “allies” will perform poorly during the negotiations. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, himself revealed that French President Emmanuel Macron pressured him last week to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia so Putin could save face. Zelensky, quite properly, refused.
The combatants’ opening positions are clear. Russia will insist on uti possidetis (roughly, “keep what you hold”), with each side maintaining control of the territories they respectively dominate on the day hostilities stop (whether by unilateral action or mutual cease-fire).
That will be the Kremlin’s position in any short-term cease-fire — and for the long term, in effect permanently. Indeed, this reality underlines why Russia will likely keep grinding away militarily, still hoping to increase the total territory seized since February 24.
Russian ambassador hints some Kremlin officials want war to end: reports
Whatever the terms of any cease-fire, Ukraine will surely insist on quickly regaining sovereignty and territorial integrity over its borders as of the USSR’s dissolution, thus requiring Russia to withdraw both from areas seized since February and those taken in 2014, including Crimea. As of now, Zelensky sees no reason to accept anything less.
The United States should endorse Ukraine’s position, which is, indeed, what we have theoretically asserted since 2014. Implementing that position, however, implies that we provide weapons and intelligence assets not simply to stop Russian advances but to retake considerably more lost ground than Ukraine has achieved to date.
Yet it is far from clear that Biden believes in victory or accepts the necessary implications. He personally decided against transferring Polish MiGs to Ukraine, fearing that doing so would be “escalatory.” Ukrainian pilots, though, no longer want MiGs but American F-15s and F-16s and appropriate training. Is Biden prepared for that?
What happens in future negotiations is unknowable, but it would be a significant blow to American credibility globally to come as close as Ukraine has to defeating a superpower only to give away at the negotiating table what has been won at such a high cost on the battlefield. We do not have forever to make up our minds.
*John Bolton was national security adviser to President Donald Trump, 2018-’19, and US ambassador to the United Nations, 2005-’06.

Bill Gates’s Pandemic Prevention Plan Has a China-Sized Blind Spot
Anthony Ruggiero/Foreign Policy/May 16/2022
In his new book, the billionaire philanthropist focuses on technical solutions but ignores politics.
In his now famous March 2015 TED talk, which has more than 40 million views online, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates pleaded with the world to start preparing for the next infectious disease outbreak “because time is not on our side.” In many ways, Gates’s remarks were prescient, such as noting the next outbreak could be “a virus where people feel well enough while they’re infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market.” In his just-published book, How to Prevent the Next Pandemic, Gates taps into his public health expertise to identify lessons learned from the world’s dysfunctional response to the spread of COVID-19. Gates urges Washington to act decisively while the impact of COVID-19 is still fresh in our minds, lest complacency take over. However, the book’s recollections of the pandemic’s early days are quite selective, which prevents Gates from recognizing that political failures are at least as dangerous as scientific ones when governments are scrambling to stop an outbreak. Specifically, Gates fails to reckon with the Chinese government’s deliberate obstruction, obfuscation, and outright deception regarding COVID-19 during the first pivotal weeks of the crisis.
Gates’s dedication to and credibility in the public health sector are unquestionable. Since 2000, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has spent over $53 billion on public health initiatives. The organization initially focused on reducing mortality rates among children under 5 years old who were dying from diarrhea and pneumonia. Twenty years later, the mortality rate has been cut in half. The foundation is also the third-largest donor to the World Health Organization (WHO), spending $584 million in 2020 and 2021 to support a global program to eliminate polio.
Gates’s name is also synonymous with technological innovation, with him having co-founded Microsoft in 1975 with Paul Allen. Advancing innovation and technology in public health is an important element of Gates’s new book. He applauds scientists for developing multiple vaccines for a novel virus in about a year—an astonishing achievement considering the previous record was four years. Gates contends that scientists, after the next outbreak, should try to develop a vaccine in six months and develop infection-blocking drugs. He rightly focuses on the challenges of delivering vaccines to low-income countries and writes that we should develop vaccines that can be inhaled or taken as a pill, which would drastically simplify distribution by reducing the need for cold storage. While much of this may sound fanciful, we should recall that at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading public health experts said it was “ridiculously optimistic” for the U.S. government to promise a vaccine within 12 to 18 months.
The central thesis of Gates’s book is that we can prevent the next pandemic by creating a global rapid-response organization that can stop the spread of the next lethal pathogen during the first pivotal weeks following its emergence.
Specifically, Gates recommends that the international community create a global epidemic response and mobilization (GERM) team—a permanent 3,000-person organization made up of experts in epidemiology, data science, logistics, communications, and other disciplines.
Gates estimates that GERM would cost $1 billion a year and says it should be funded by the governments of wealthy and some middle-income nations, which have the most to lose economically from a pandemic. In a new TED talk in April, Gates said, “We need to spend billions in order to save trillions.” He’s right about the magnitude of potential losses. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the global economy more than $12.5 trillion through 2024. Gates hopes his GERM concept will be adopted over the next year. The WHO would manage the team, and it could be created by a resolution at the World Health Assembly, the WHO member states’ annual meeting, which is convening this month in Geneva.
The GERM team, Gates writes, would develop “a checklist for pandemic preparedness, similar to the ones that airplane pilots follow before every takeoff and many surgeons now go through during an operation.” The GERM team’s most important role would be to run outbreak response exercises. “Just as militaries do complex exercises where they simulate different conditions and see how well they respond, the GERM team would organize outbreak response exercises,” Gates writes. “Not war games, but germ games.” He explains that “in most countries, these exercises can be run by national public health institutions, emergency operations centers, and military leaders,” with the GERM team “acting as an advisor and reviewer. For low-income countries, the world will have to bring in resources to help out.”
GERM’s mission would be to detect and stop outbreaks before they became pandemics. Once it spots a new outbreak, “GERM should have the ability to declare an outbreak and work with national governments and the World Bank to raise money for the response very quickly.” The organization “would take the lead on creating and coordinating common responses, such as how and when to implement border closures and recommend mask use.” Correctly, Gates observes that the measures necessary to prepare for naturally occurring threats also apply to preventing bioterrorism.
Where Gates begins to run into trouble is his unexamined assumption that national governments will give up control at pivotal moments to an international organization. The genesis of the COVID-19 pandemic teaches us that those governments may even insist there is no threat to address. In his book, Gates never mentions that Chinese leaders spent one month denying there was an outbreak at all.
On Jan. 30, 2020, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared COVID-19 a public health emergency of international concern. Gates heralds this announcement in the book but does not address what we now know about how China obstructed an effective response. For example, on Jan. 1, 2020, local officials in Wuhan, the center of the COVID-19 outbreak, censored eight whistleblowers for “rumor-mongering.” Their only crime was warning fellow medical professionals in late December 2019 of a novel virus outbreak.
China also delayed for a week the release of the virus’s genome, which is necessary to develop diagnostics and vaccines. An Associated Press investigation highlighted that “Chinese government labs only released the genome after another lab published it ahead of authorities on a virologist website on Jan. 11.” Beijing also withheld other crucial information from WHO officials throughout much of January 2020. The AP found that “China stalled for at least two weeks more on providing WHO with detailed data on patients and cases.”
The Chinese Communist Party has a history of obstructing reports of viral outbreaks. In 2003, then-WHO Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland criticized Beijing’s response to the SARS outbreak, noting experts would have been able to help had they been called earlier. “Next time something strange and new comes anywhere in the world, let us come in as quickly as possible,” she said. Yet letting in foreign observers is rarely what governments want to do when their reputations are on the line.
In making the case for GERM, Gates compares the organization to a global fire department, noting that “a pandemic is the equivalent of a fire that starts in one building and within weeks is burning in every country in the world.” In keeping with the analogy, China’s leaders stood outside a burning building in January 2020 and denied it was on fire. The fire eventually became too obvious, but by then the neighborhood was ablaze.
He remains blind to the intensely political nature of public health decisions, fixating instead on technical solutions. Disease surveillance is a consistent theme in Gates’s book, which includes an entire chapter titled “Get Better at Detecting Outbreaks Early.” Gates explains that “the world’s disparate disease surveillance systems need to be integrated so that public health officials can rapidly detect emerging and circulating respiratory viruses no matter where they emerge.” His approach to disease surveillance draws from his experiences in low-income countries that report outbreaks quickly and ask for assistance, and the GERM team is indeed a useful concept for addressing outbreaks in these countries. However, it does not hold up to scrutiny when compared with China’s actions to hide the COVID-19 outbreak. Beijing did not acknowledge the seriousness of the outbreak until late January 2020, despite evidence in late December 2019 that the new virus was similar to the one that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Neither in the book nor during subsequent media appearances does Gates address this fairly obvious problem. He remains blind to the intensely political nature of public health decisions, fixating instead on technical solutions. Many of his prescriptions are valid and useful, but none are sufficient to prevent the next pandemic.
Without a full reckoning of what happened in the early days of this pandemic, the world will be doomed to repeat the devastation next time around.
*Anthony Ruggiero is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense on the U.S. National Security Council during the Trump administration. Twitter: @NatSecAnthony. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Ahead of Biden's expected visit to Israel
Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/May 16/2022
Israel must receive a clear promise that it will preserve its full freedom of action, in all dimensions.
US President Biden recently announced a planned visit to Jerusalem, probably at the end of June.
The important visit is planned for many US internal reasons, but regardless of Biden's interests, which of course should be considered, Israel must prepare itself for the visit and promote its own objectives. This time they should not be centered on extra budgets or capabilities.
Israeli National Security Adviser Dr. Eyal Hulata recently visited Washington and met with his counterpart, with the expected visit on the agenda. The discussions centered mainly on Iran and the nuclear deal debate, alongside the security situation in the region, Terror, Jerusalem, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, and possible cooperation areas between Israel and the US. Russia and China were probably also part of the discussion.
Negotiations with Iran on a return to the nuclear deal are currently in a kind of limbo (cessation/freeze), without a set timetable to continue, but the team leaders, especially the American team led by Rob Mali, and the European Union team, Led by Minister Borel, are looking for some crazy "creative ways to square the circle."
The Russian representative, Mikhail Ulyanov, was interviewed a few days before the expected signing and bragged a few weeks ago that the Iranians were about to get a much better agreement than they wished for in their most optimistic dreams, led by him, with Chinese help. Ironically, he had to follow orders from Moscow and put forward a Russian demand for the exclusion of economic sanctions imposed on them because of the invasion of Ukraine, from trade with the Iranian market. While that demand has since been resolved, it has led to the cessation of talks, at the time.
But Russia was not alone. Causing, and still doomed, the inability to sign the agreement, is the Iranians' demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) from the list of foreign terrorist organizations, after all of their other extortionate demands were met in the affirmative.
While contacts are officially halted, all parties still want a deal and there are big concerns in Israel and the Gulf that a "creative way to square the circle" will eventually be found. Minister Borel just flew to Teheran to try finding such a solution, after declaring his talks with state secretary Blinken came to a dead-end.
Whether an agreement is signed by the time Biden visits Israel or not, there is no doubt the Iranian nuclear issue will take a central place in the talks, alongside Iran's aggressive behavior and their terror support in the region and around the world. Russia, China, the peach process and other issues will probably come up, but this time Israel should insist to concentrate on the Iranian problem.
It is important to present the shortcomings and dangers of the agreement that has been formulated and was very close to being signed and to propose some measures that Israel will be required to take if the agreement is signed, or if it is not signed (hopefully, together with the US and other partners).
The agreement that was formulated, is based on the bad 2015 agreement but includes additional concessions. It is not considering the time elapsed from 2015 and the short time remaining to finalize the expiry of all restrictions on Iran. The agreement does not include a way to verify the new findings, both from the nuclear archive the Mossad brought in 2018 and from IAEA's findings on Iranian NPT violations, which were discovered at several sites.
There are no doubts that signing an agreement will lead Iran to a status of a nuclear thresh-hold country, and then to the bomb in the coming years, causing a change in the world global power balance and a broad nuclear race in the Middle East.
The agreement does not include any tools and leverage that will force the Iranians to negotiate a "longer and stronger" agreement, as promised by Biden, and mistakenly spread out, as the next step, by supporters of a the return to the agreement.
The restrictions on the program will expire according to the original timetable, so by 2025 the powers will lose the Snap-Back mechanism that allows all sanctions to be reinforced, and very short after all other restrictions will expire, while the Iranians, will get immediately hundreds of billions of dollars.
The agreement does not address the supervision activities related to the development of the weapons system, beyond the very narrow section T in the original agreement. Apparently, the 2015 secret agreement between the Russians, Iranians, and Americans, not to enforce this chapter, which was added to the agreement only because the pressure from the Israeli expert's team, remains in effect. It can be assumed that the new agreement includes more side documents and confidential agreements.
The future of the IAEA's open investigations is uncertain. Iran still needs to answer the open questions by June, prior to the BOG meeting in Vienna, so it is clear the Iranians have every interest in dragging the current situation at least until June, if they do not intend to sign an agreement, to withhold their threatening cards.
It looks like Biden and his team would be more comfortable continuing with the current situation until November to get through the mid-term elections. Signing an agreement now, certainly if t will include a delisting, in any way, of the Revolutionary Guards from the foreign terrorist organizations list, would provoke strong objections in US on both sides of the political map.
An in-depth examination of the alternatives presents two main paths, and the right choice looks very clear.
Under a bad agreement, with or without removing the Revolutionary Guards from the FTO list, the Iranians will soon reach industrial enrichment capacity, in parallel with the capability to sneak for a bomb, based on advanced centrifuges and transfer a small portion of the huge amount of legitimate enriched uranium, and to accumulate enough bomb-grade enriched Uranium, and then the bomb, under the intel radar.
Albeit it will be in a relatively slow pace, they will be in a much stronger position, carried on a wave of a country that upheld the agreements it signed.
On the other hand, without an agreement, Iran will try to reach the nuclear threshold status and the bomb, probably much faster, but they will do it from a position of weakness and without legitimacy.
Israel will have then have the legitimacy, relevancy, urgency and the appropriate targets to cause painful and critical harm to the Iranian program and infrastructure, for many years.
Comparing the alternatives of not signing an agreement because of urgency + legitimacy + relevancy, against the alternative of signing and "buying time" to build more capabilities, which might come too late, if the Iranian will progress beyond the point of no return, it is clear what is the right way.
During Biden's visit, Israel must receive a clear promise that Israel will preserve its full freedom of action, in all dimensions, alongside increasing the cooperation between the countries (if no agreement is signed).
Israel should build a full-scale legitimacy campaign to weaken Iran in all possible dimensions – economically, politically, militarily, cyber, kinetic tools, soft and legal tools, perception-changing tools, and more. For this purpose, it is necessary to invest appropriate budgets and manpower.
Iran's leaders must understand that the era in which the "head of the octopus" remains immune while he invokes his proxies to attack and destabilize the region, is gone.
It is essential to build, alongside the detailed operational plans, a strategic communication plan that will convey Iranian behavior and the dangers of a nuclear Iran, emphasizing the threats to every city in Europe and US when Iran completes the development of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) equipping them with nuclear warheads.
The US was about to sign a shameful and dangerous "surrender agreement", and apparently is still willing to do so, under certain conditions. Iran, entrenched in its unreasonable demands and probably putting one extra demand over the edge, gave US a ladder and opportunity to backoff and build a joint plan with Israel that would force Iran to stop progressing in its program and move to a "longer and stronger" agreement that would block its path to nuclear weapons for many years
To achieve this, the US cannot surrender to crazy Iranian demands, and return to the maximum pressure scheme, alongside credible military threat to the regime and to its survival, to the lives of the leaders and to the Iranian economy. If the serious threat does not affect the Iranian behavior, we all must be seriously prepared to activate the threats, hopefully using a broad international coalition.

Frightened Russia... Dreadful Russia
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/May, 16/2022
A diplomat asked me if I saw similarities between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. I was surprised and answered that both events took place in a different world and a different region. Russia is not Iraq. Vladimir Putin is not the same as Saddam Hussein. The decision-making mechanism in today’s Moscow is different from that of Saddam’s Baghdad.
Moreover, Russia is a nuclear state and a permanent member of the Security Council. It is true, however, that the Iraqi invasion threatened a vital commodity to the world, which is oil, while the Russian war in Ukraine is threatening two vital commodities, namely food and energy.
The diplomat saw that the most blatant similarity between the two events was the use of force to erase recognized international borders, annex territories and threaten the unity of an independent state. He noted that a foreign invasion was completely different from the change of borders due to developments, such as the Soviet, Yugoslav, or Sudanese explosion, or the split of Czechoslovakia due to the divorce between its two main components.
He said the United States launched two major wars in the current century in Afghanistan and Iraq, but did not attempt to change the map of the targeted countries.
Ukraine’s story is different. On the eve of the war, Putin considered the country a mere Russian product, meaning it does not have the legitimacy to exist as an independent state.
The diplomat affirmed that the world, which was afflicted by the atrocities of World War II, has proclaimed the inadmissibility of seizing the lands of others by force. Therefore, the international legitimacy does not recognize the outcome of the Israeli invasion policy.
According to the diplomat, the current war taking place on European soil will certainly lead to the birth of a new world. The Europeans, led by President Emmanuel Macron, are aware of the danger of Russia’s humiliation in Ukraine. At the same time, they understand the risk of conceding that the force has the right to change maps and manipulate recognized international borders.
If they overlook Russia’s annexation of parts of Ukraine, how can they oppose what China considers its natural right to regain Taiwan?
It is difficult to compare the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In the past two decades, Putin has not shown recklessness in dealing with crises that concern his country, even if he has expressed some firmness. One can say that he revealed ingenuity that suggested that the Kremlin’s decision-making was based on information transmitted by embassies and security services.
It is difficult to believe that the president’s strength prevents his most prominent aides from expressing their opinion or concerns. At the same time, it is difficult to imagine that a seasoned diplomat like Sergei Lavrov did not expect the invasion of Ukraine to be met with a strong Western response.
I recalled what I heard a few weeks ago from an Iraqi, who had professional and close relations with Tariq Aziz, the former Iraqi foreign minister. He told me that Aziz was opposed to the invasion of Kuwait and was aware of the dangers of annexing the country, but he could not influence the course of events. Will the world discover one day that Lavrov was in a situation similar to that of Tariq Aziz, of course taking into consideration the differences between eras and men?
I also remembered what I heard from Hazem Jawad, who led the Iraqi Baath to power in 1963. He said that during a Cabinet session headed by President Abdel Salam Aref, one of the ministers asked a question related to Kuwait. Aref overlooked that he was the president of the republic and made a telling statement: “Appoint me as commander of the Basra Brigade, and I will solve the Kuwaiti problem for you” - meaning he will invade it.
Decades later, Saddam Hussein would head to the Basra region to lead the Iraqi Republican Guard’s invasion of Kuwait. Decades after Ukraine’s independence, here we have Putin considering the country an artificial entity and sending his army into its territory.
I also heard from Iraqis that fear resides in the deep soul of their being. The country is geographically caught between two mighty neighbors.
All Iraqi rulers remember those pages of history that recount how the Safavids fought with the Ottomans on Iraqi land.
In recent history, the policies of some former imperial regimes show explicit tendencies to expand their territory at the expense of their weak contiguous circle. Some scenes are fresh. Iran bombs targets in Erbil. Turkey hunts down its enemies inside Iraq.
Russia’s history is also tumultuous. The country has been the invaded and the invader. For centuries, its borders have been restless and mobile. The country has many stories of conquests, although the books focus on Napoleon's adventure and Hitler's madness.
Iraq was afraid of Iran’s ability to hold cards within its territory. Some people say that Saddam’s fear of the “Wali al-Faqih” and “exporting the revolution” prompted him to launch a war against the Persian State, believing that if he did not initiate such an adventure in the border region, he would have to fight it later in the streets of Baghdad. Putin, in turn, accused Ukraine of plotting against him, so he launched a “preemptive” war.
Russia is rich in oil, gas and minerals. But it lives is grappling with its siege mentality and fears for it soul. Peter the Great’s attempt to import the factors of European progress did not dispel its permanent fear of the West. Thus, the Soviet Union built the Berlin Wall to fend off the winds of the Western model, but history uprooted the wall.
The West went too far in boasting of its victory. It moved the pawns of the NATO alliance towards Russia’s borders, which Putin considered a further humiliation of his country and an invasion threat under the guise of globalization and “color revolutions”. It was out of this deep fear and the Soviet rubble that Putin emerged. In Berlin, the visiting journalist feels that the world has fallen into a vicious trap, as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine. The fearful Russia is difficult and exhausting and the dreadful Russia is alarming. It is certain that the world, which is paying a heavy price today, will change with the beat of the developments in Ukraine. Countries are anxious and developments are frightening.