English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 10/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Do not be deceived! Fornicators, idolaters, adulterers, male prostitutes,
sodomites, thieves, the greedy, drunkards, revilers, robbers none of these will
inherit the kingdom of God. And this is what some of you used to be
First Letter to the Corinthians 06/01-11/:”When any of you
has a grievance against another, do you dare to take it to court before the
unrighteous, instead of taking it before the saints? Do you not know that the
saints will judge the world? And if the world is to be judged by you, are you
incompetent to try trivial cases? Do you not know that we are to judge angels to
say nothing of ordinary matters? If you have ordinary cases, then, do you
appoint as judges those who have no standing in the church? I say this to your
shame. Can it be that there is no one among you wise enough to decide between
one believer and another, but a believer goes to court against a believer and
before unbelievers at that? In fact, to have lawsuits at all with one another is
already a defeat for you. Why not rather be wronged? Why not rather be
defrauded? But you yourselves wrong and defraud and believers at that. Do you
not know that wrongdoers will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be
deceived! Fornicators, idolaters, adulterers, male prostitutes, sodomites,
thieves, the greedy, drunkards, revilers, robbers none of these will inherit the
kingdom of God. And this is what some of you used to be. But you were washed,
you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and
in the Spirit of our God
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on March 09-10/2022
Aoun discusses national security with Minister of Defense
President Aoun briefed by Social Affairs Minister on social programs
developments, discusses ministerial affairs with Ministe
Mikati meets Mawlawi, Othman, Tripoli Municipality delegation, chairs meeting
over Beirut Port
BDL Requests Names of Politicians who Failed to Repatriate Funds
Reports: Hizbullah Reveals Air Defense Capabilities to Israel as 'Drone Runways'
Discovered
LBP Drops Again on Black Market, Salameh Says BDL Still Pumping USD
Bou Habib from Cairo: We Urge Arab Brothers to Assist Lebanon
Lebanese Agricultural Institute Says it Produces Bread Wheat as Ukraine Bans
Exports
Lebanon central bank seeks names of those who failed to repatriate funds amid
crisis
Mawlawi Says Megacenters 'Impossible' without Legislative Amendment
Qatar Fund for Development and IOM Join Forces to Support Vulnerable Syrian
Refugees in Lebanon
More than 850 Lebanese evacuated from Ukraine into Romania: Murad
French Minister Delegate for Transport to visit Lebanon Thursday
Embassy of Canada to Lebanon, UN Women and the MAFROUKEH Play team mark
International Women’s Day with a roundtable on Women’s personal status
Iraqi Minister of Industry winds up 3-day official visit to Lebanon
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 09-10/2022
Iran’s IRGC Put Noor 2 Satellite in Orbit
Iran Condemns Killing of Two Officers by Israel in Syria
Iran Vows Revenge for 2 Officers Killed by Israel in Syria
Israel's President Heads to Turkey in Bid to Rebuild Ties
Israeli Army Chief on Official Visit to Bahrain
Canada will send Ukraine another shipment of military equipment, Trudeau says
West to Russia: Do Not Sabotage Iran Deal with New Conditions
Russia Again Promises to Let Ukrainians Flee ‘Apocalyptic’ Sieges
U.S. Deploys Two Patriot Missile Defense Batteries in Poland
Battleground Ukraine: Day 14 of Russia's Invasion
Young Ukrainian Dancers, Trapped Abroad, Get Paris Residency
Ukraine War Deepens Economic Woes in Damascus
Egypt’s Sisi and Russia’s Putin Discuss Developments in Ukraine
Prince Hamza's Apology Ends 'Sedition' in Jordan
Iraq Oil Ministry Calls for Arrest of Fugitive MP over 'Extortion' Allegations
Houthis Warn Israel, Touts Military Training
French forces report killing Al Qaeda veteran in Mali
U.S. Treasury Designates Four ISIS Financiers in South Africa
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 09-10/2022
Putin’s troops ravage Ukraine while his envoy steers Team Biden’s talks
with Iran/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/March 09/2022
New Iran Nuclear Deal? Same Old Missile Problems./Behnam Ben Taleblu/The
Dispatch/March 09/2022 |
Apply the Lessons From Ukraine in the Taiwan Strait/RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery
and Bradley Bowman/Defense News/March 09/2022
Putin turns Russia into the world’s most-sanctioned country, dwarfing Iran and
North Korea/Timothy Bella/The Washington Post/March 09/2022
Empty Threats to Ban Russian Oil Will Only Help Putin/Julian Lee/Bloomberg/March
09/2022
Why China Won’t Help Russia Around Sanctions/Shuli Ren/Bloomberg/March 09/2022
What Does and Doesn’t Concern Us!/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 09/2022
Ukraine Crisis: The Next Biden Defeat?/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/March
09/2022
Biden Administration Appeases Mullahs, Iran Escalates Assassinations/Dr. Majid
Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/March 08/2022
The Nobel Committee Should Give Zelensky the Peace Price Now/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone
Institute./March 09/2022
As Kyiv burns, a new world order emerges/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 09/2022
on March 09-10/2022
Aoun discusses national security with Minister of
Defense
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Wednesday discussed with
National Defense Minister, Maurice Sleem, the country’s security situation, the
work of ministerial committees, as well as an array of issues involving the
Ministry of Defense.
President Aoun briefed by Social Affairs Minister on social
programs developments, discusses ministerial affairs with Ministe
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Social Affairs Minister, Hector Hajjar, emphasized that payments to eligible
families under the social programs led by his ministry will start next week for
150,000 families. Minister Hajjar stressed full compliance with the criteria set
by the ministry and the ministerial committee in identifying these families, the
most important of which is transparency. The Social Affairs Minister also called
on everyone who is asked to correct his information to immediately initiate the
correction, revealing that with the availability of funds, there will be a new
opportunity to register for those who were unable to register previously.
Mikati meets Mawlawi, Othman, Tripoli Municipality
delegation, chairs meeting over Beirut Port
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Wednesday hailed "the role played by the
Internal Security Forces, especially the Information Branch, in protecting
security stability and preventing any breach of security, especially by
arresting networks corroborating with the Israeli enemy and preventing any
security breach across the Lebanese territories."He said: "The rapid and
professional uncovering of the recent crimes proves that the security forces are
vigilant to protect the Lebanese and control any security flaw."Mikati also
commended the role of the leadership of the Internal Security Forces in
overseeing the affairs of the institution and taking care of its members. The
Prime Minister also hailed “the existing cooperation between the Internal
Security Forces, the army and other security forces, which constitutes
additional protection for Lebanon and the Lebanese in these difficult
circumstances."Premier Mikati on Wednesday met at the Grand Serail with Minister
of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, accompanied by Internal
Security Forces chief, Major General Imad Othman, and Head of ISF Information
Branch, Brigadier Khaled Hammoud. On the other hand, Mikati chaired a meeting
devoted to discussing the inspection and control procedures adopted at the
Beirut Port, attended by Minister of Finance Youssef Khalil, Minister of
Industry, George Boushekian, Head of the Higher Council of Customs, Brigadier
General Assaad Tufayli, and the Acting Director-General of Customs, Raymond
Khoury. Moreover, Premier Mikati received, in the presence of the Minister of
Interior and Municipalities, a delegation from the Tripoli Municipality, headed
by the Mayor Dr. Riad Yamak. The delegation raised with the Premier affairs and
projects related to the northern city of Tripoli.
BDL Requests Names of Politicians who Failed to Repatriate
Funds
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Lebanon’s central bank, known as the Banque du Liban (BDL), announced Wednesday
that it has asked commercial banks to provide it with the names of the
“politically exposed figures” who have failed to repatriate their bank transfers
from abroad in the wake of the country’s historic financial crisis. In a
statement, BDL’s Special Investigation Commission said it had made the request
following a meeting that was held on March 3, adding that the names of those who
have complied should also be submitted to the central bank. The SIC gave banks
until the end of March 2022 to submit the lists. It also requested information
about “the cash deposits that were made by politically exposed figures (PEPs)
between July 2017 and the end of December 2020.”
Reports: Hizbullah Reveals Air Defense Capabilities to
Israel as 'Drone Runways' Discovered
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Hizbullah has deliberately let Israel know of the presence of air defense
systems in its possession in Lebanon, Israeli media reports said. Quoting the
commanders of the Israeli army’s operations branch, an Israeli news website said
the Iran-backed group had managed to bring the systems into Lebanon through
Syria despite Israel’s numerous airstrikes on its arms shipments. “It is
operating these systems in a clear and public manner, and without any
concealment as used to happen in the past,” the Israeli commanders added.
Separately, a report by an Israeli research center said that Hizbullah now
possesses 2,000 drones after having had only 200 Iranian-made drones in 2013.
Israel’s military intelligence meanwhile believes that Hizbullah’s drones can
“cover entire Israel.” “The activation of these drones takes place in an
automated manner and they can also land on sea before resuming their flights,”
an Israeli military analyst quoted his country’s military intelligence as
saying, adding that Israel “has discovered two Hizbullah drone runways in the
Lebanese south.”On February 18, the Israeli military said it fired interceptor
missiles and protectively scrambled warplanes after a Hizbullah drone crossed
its northern border from Lebanon.
Hizbullah for its part announced that it sent the "Hassan" drone inside Israel
for 40 minutes on a "reconnaissance mission that extended along seventy
kilometers" inside the occupied territories. "Despite the enemy's multiple and
successive attempts to shoot it down, the 'Hassan' plane returned from the
occupied territories safely after it successfully carried out the required
mission," Hizbullah said. Minutes after the Hizbullah announcement, two Israeli
fighter jets flying at very low altitude buzzed the Lebanese capital Beirut,
jolting residents, rattling windows and setting off some car alarms.
That incident came just a day after Israel shot down what it said was another
drone, allegedly from Hizbullah. Israel and Hizbullah are bitter enemies that
fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israel considers the
Iranian-backed Hizbullah to be its greatest immediate threat, possessing an
estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
Israel has long expressed concerns that Hizbullah would obtain or develop guided
missiles and attack drones.Last month, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
said his group has been manufacturing military drones in Lebanon for years, and
also has the technology to turn thousands of missiles in its possession into
precision-guided munitions.
LBP Drops Again on Black Market, Salameh Says BDL Still
Pumping USD
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The Lebanese pound declined again, as it reached 23,000 against the dollar on
Wednesday. The LBP had been relatively stable since a central bank circular in
January allowed banks to buy dollar banknotes from the BDL. The central bank
intervention had led to a major recovery of the Lebanese lira value as it
strengthened to around 20,000 after it had reached a low of 34,000. Central Bank
Governor Riad Salameh assured Wednesday that the BDL will continue to secure USD
cash in return for LBP banknotes based on the rate of the Sayrafa platform. He
negated rumors that said the Sayrafa platform was not running. Meanwhile, petrol
prices have been surging worldwide, even before the United States and Britain
announced a ban on Russian oil imports, which will likely lead to price hikes of
almost all commodities in Lebanon, already in the throes of soaring poverty and
hyperinflation.
Bou Habib from Cairo: We Urge Arab Brothers to Assist
Lebanon
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stressed Wednesday from Cairo that Lebanon
is “determined to rise again,” urging the Arab countries to assist it in its
efforts. “Despite the near-complete collapse of our economic and financial
situations, and the challenges we are facing to our role and position, we are
still determined to rise again and move forward on the path of realizing our
message and playing the role that befits our sacrifices and contributions,” Bou
Habib said at the opening of the ordinary session of Arab League’s ministerial
council in Cairo. He was speaking in his capacity as the chairman of the current
session. “In this regard, we urge the Arab brothers to assist Lebanon in its
Arabism and unity and in preserving its message and experience, because their
support is necessary for safeguarding its uniqueness,” Bou Habib added. He also
thanked Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmed Nasser Al-Sabah for “the efforts
that he has exerted to bolster joint Arab action and to mend rifts in the Arab
world including in Lebanon.”
Lebanese Agricultural Institute Says it Produces Bread
Wheat as Ukraine Bans Exports
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Ukraine's government has banned the export of wheat, oats and other staples that
are crucial for global food supplies as authorities try to ensure they can feed
people during Russia's intensifying war. The products they send are made into
bread, noodles and animal feed around the world, and any shortages could create
food insecurity in places like Lebanon and Egypt. The Lebanese Agricultural
Research Institute -- a governmental organization under the supervision of the
ministry of agriculture -- said Wednesday that its "farmers grow excellent soft
wheat that can be made into bread."It also offered its "7 large warehouses that
can be used to store foodstuffs, including wheat" to the state. "Our warehouses
are at the disposal of the state to store any newly imported wheat, free of
charge," the LARI said. The massive explosion at the Beirut port in 2020 had
destroyed the country’s main grain silos.
Economy Minister Amin Salam assured Tuesday, that Lebanon has sufficient wheat
reserves, after he met with the ambassadors of Turkey and India over wheat
supply concerns. He said that India is ready to supply Lebanon with wheat, if
needed. Lebanese authorities are also in talks with the U.S. and Canada to find
wheat sources, as Ukraine provides 60% of its wheat supply.
Lebanon central bank seeks names of those who failed to
repatriate funds amid crisis
Reuters/March 09/2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s central bank has asked commercial banks to provide the names
of political figures who failed to comply with a circular ordering them to
repatriate funds sent abroad in the lead-up to the country’s 2019 financial
meltdown. Lebanon’s financial crisis, which the World Bank has labelled one of
the deepest depressions of modern history, has been compounded by political
deadlock and a row over the probe into the 2020 Beirut port blast that killed
more than 200 people. The central bank, known as the Banque du Liban (BDL), said
banks must provide its Special Investigation Commission with the names by the
end of March, adding that “cash deposits made between July 2017 and end-December
2020 are concerned as well, if the beneficiary is” a politically exposed person.
Last week, a US Treasury delegation urged Lebanon to investigate what it
described as “abuses” within the banking system by members of the political and
economic elite. Allegations of financial misconduct have been widespread
following the financial collapse, when banks imposed tight controls on hard
currency accounts for most savers but critics say some people with influence
were able to access funds more freely.
Banks have denied claims of favoritism toward certain clients, and say they have
consistently called on the government to introduce a capital control law to
regulate the sector — something the government has failed to do. Central Bank
Governor Riad Salameh faces corruption probes in a number of European countries
and in Lebanon, where officials are investigating alleged money laundering and
embezzlement of central bank funds. He has denied wrongdoing.
Mawlawi Says Megacenters 'Impossible' without Legislative
Amendment
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said that he cannot proceed with the
megacenters plan without a legislative amendment. Mawlawi told al-Joumhouria, in
remarks published Wednesday, that he had warned against security risks that
megacenters could cause. "They are underestimating the issue," he said, adding
that "it is not just a tent or a box. Prime Minister Najib Miqati had requested
Mawlawi to study setting up voting megacenters in the upcoming parliamentary
elections, following a letter from President Michel Aoun, who had described the
plan as necessary. Mawlawi's study said it will be impossible to set up the
megacenters within the deadlines, citing legal, logistic and financial
difficulties. The study also said that legal amendments are required. It failed
to convince the president. Thus, Cabinet formed a ministerial committee to study
the project. After meeting twice, The ministers of interior, finance, foreign
affairs, education, culture and telecom agreed that the megacenters plan
requires a legislative amendment. The minister of justice, for his part, said no
legal obstacles prevent the move.He said Tuesday, that the minister of tourism
had supported his opinion and that Cabinet will discuss the committee's report
in its upcoming session on Friday. "Cabinet will decide on the legal aspect," he
clarified.
Qatar Fund for Development and IOM Join Forces to Support
Vulnerable Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
With support from the Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and the International
Organization for Migration (IOM), the implementation of the one-year project
“Livelihood Support in the Beqaa and North Lebanon targeting Syrian Refugees”
has kicked off, the IOM said in a statement distributed by the U.N. Information
Center in Lebanon. The project aims to target 604 vulnerable Lebanese and Syrian
persons in North Lebanon and Central Bekaa. Nine years into the Syrian conflict,
nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees are currently living in Lebanon, of whom
about 950,000 are registered with United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR). With a population estimated at around 6 million, Lebanon is a host to
the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. This massive influx has
posed immense challenges to the small country, which lacks the “adequate
resources, infrastructure, and political will to respond to refugees’ needs,”
the statement said. “Struggling to meet basic needs and make ends meet,
marginalized communities in the Bekaa and North Lebanon are in dire need of
attention and support,” said Nouf Al-Kaabi, Acting Manager of Project and
Program Department at the Qatar Fund for Development. “The holistic approach of
the livelihood program provides diverse opportunities that aim to mitigate
ever-growing economic hardships, address education needs, and instill a sense of
purpose in the most vulnerable Syrian refugees and Lebanese communities, with a
focus on the unemployed and women, in areas long neglected,” she added. In the
context of the multiple crises in Lebanon, including the COVID-19 pandemic that
has claimed the lives of many and caused devastating social and economic
disruptions, the project aims to address such challenges through interventions
that adequately meet the needs of vulnerable populations. This joint initiative
aims to create income-generating opportunities, fostering entrepreneurial
livelihoods and boosting employability of communities that are threatened by
shortage of municipal services, and are living in volatile neighborhoods in the
North, Akkar and the Bekaa valley. “This generous contribution from the Qatar
Fund for Development is coming at a critical time when so many people in Lebanon
are struggling in the face of the economic and financial downturn, the COVID-19
pandemic and most recently, the explosions at the port of Beirut." said Mathieu
Luciano, IOM Lebanon’s Head of Office. “Our partnership is a great example of
how humanitarian and development provide a critical lifeline to vulnerable host
and displaced communities trying to meet their basic needs.”“The significance of
the project lies in addressing the socio-economic hardships and traditional
tensions related to the presence of significant numbers of displaced communities
and that come under increased strain due to deteriorating conditions in
Lebanon,” the statement added.
More than 850 Lebanese evacuated from Ukraine into Romania:
Murad
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
At least 850 Lebanese have been evacuated from Ukraine into Romania and more
than 350 have been repatriated to Lebanon, announced on Wednesday Head of the
Syndicate of Owners of Tourist Establishments in Romania, Muhammad Murad, who
thanked the Romanian authorities and the General Security chief for their
cooperation and efforts.
French Minister Delegate for Transport to visit Lebanon Thursday
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
French Minister Delegate for Transport, Jean-Baptiste Djebbari, will visit
Lebanon on March 10, the French Embassy in Beirut announced in a statement on
Wednesday. The visiting official will sign a memorandum of understanding
relevant to a donation of 50 buses. He will also inspect Beirut port and meet
with civil society and private sector figures.
Embassy of Canada to Lebanon, UN Women and the MAFROUKEH
Play team mark International Women’s Day with a roundtable on Women’s personal
status
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The Embassy of Canada to Lebanon, UN Women and the Mafroukeh Play team- Lebanon
does not have a single civil code. There are 15 personal status laws relevant to
the 18 officially recognized confessional communities. This multiplicity of
legal systems means that Lebanese citizens are treated differently when it comes
to key aspects of their lives. This situation has a particularlydiscriminatory
impact on women, who must fight for and protect their most basic rights. To
acknowledge women’s silent struggle against personal status laws in Lebanon and
to mark International Women’s Day 2022, the Embassy of Canada to Lebanon, UN
Women and theMafroukeh play team organized a roundtable at Theatre Monnot,
Ashrafieh. The event gathered ministers, members of parliament,representatives
from the civil society, the United Nations, and UN Member States and featured
interventions focused on the perspectives of Lebanese women. The roundtable was
also attended by Mrs. Claudine Aoun Roukoz, President of the National Commission
for Lebanese Women (NCLW). Chantal Chastenay, Ambassador of Canada to Lebanon,
stressed that “the roundtable falls under Canada’s commitment toward gender
equality, the empowerment of women and girls and the realization of their human
rights under the universal 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”. “It is
through sustained engagement and by working with our partners, that the agenda’s
goals are effectively implemented” she added.
Rachel Dore-Weeks, Director of UN Women in Lebanon, noted that “Lebanon’s
complex set of personal status laws codify gender inequalities and contribute to
the perpetuation of social norms that concentrate the power over women’s
personal decisions in the hands of religious leaders and male family members,
diverting thus the State’s authority.” She added that “a unified civil personal
status law has the potential to create a paradigm shift on women’s rights, but
also on good governance in Lebanon”.The discussion was based on the exploration
by the theatre play Mafroukeh that tells the journey of a divorced Lebanese
woman confronted with a patriarchal society with archaic traditions,
gender-based limitations, as well as the difficulty to rebuild herlife and face
new challenges. The conversation focused on the limits of Lebanon’s personal
status and its repercussions on Lebanese women’s access to protection, equal
rights, and justice. By highlighting the paralyzing effects of the confessional
system on Lebanese society, the speakers called for urgent legislative reforms.
On the play that will be premiered this week, Michèle Fenianos from Mafroukeh
team said “Gender equality is not a luxury good. There is no right time for
activism, it’s a continuous battle. If we really want the change in mentalities,
education & culture are a must especially in difficult times”. Women in Lebanon,
across all confessions, face multiple legal obstacles when ending their
marriage. They face limitations of their economic rights and, in several
circumstances, risk losing custody of their children.
Iraqi Minister of Industry winds up 3-day official visit to
Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The Iraqi embassy in Beirut on Wednesday announced in a statement that the Iraqi
Minister of Industry, Manhal Aziz al-Khabbaz, has winded up his 3-day official
visit to Beirut, during which he met with Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, who
stressed Lebanon's keenness on strengthening its relations with Iraq and the
Arab world and to expand constructive cooperation that serves the interests of
the two brotherly countries. The statement added that the Iraqi Minister of
Industry has also met with House Speaker, Nabih Berri, who thanked Iraq for the
assistance it has provided to its brothers Lebanon to help overcome the
prevailing crisis. The statement added that the Iraqi Minister of Industry also
held talks with President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, who expressed
his gratitude for Iraq's stances towards Lebanon, and noted its role in
supporting Lebanon in various fields, stressing the importance of Lebanon's
openness to Iraq and the
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on March 09-10/2022
Iran’s IRGC Put Noor 2 Satellite in Orbit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has successfully put a second military
satellite, the Noor 2, into orbit, the semi-official news agency Tasnim said on
Tuesday. Noor 2 is orbiting at an altitude of 500 kilometers (311 miles). The
first military satellite, launched by the Islamic Republic in April 2020, placed
the Noor, or “light” in Persian, at an orbit of 425km (265 miles) above the
earth’s surface. Putting a second satellite in space would be a major advance
for Iran’s military, raising concerns about the country's nuclear and missile
programs, according to Reuters.The US military says the same long-range
ballistic technology used to put satellites into orbit could also allow Tehran
to launch longer-range weapons, possibly including nuclear warheads. “The IRGC
successfully placed Iran’s second military satellite, Noor 2, into orbit 500
kilometers from earth,” Tasnim said.nThe three-stage Qased, or “Messenger,”
carrier launched the Noor 2, from the Shahroud space port, it added.The same
type of rockets, which use a combination of liquid and solid fuels, carried the
first military satellite.
Iran Condemns Killing of Two Officers by Israel in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Iran has condemned Israel's recent attack on the Syrian capital of Damascus, its
semi-official ISNA news agency said on Wednesday, quoting foreign ministry
spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh.b Israel fired several missiles toward Syrian
military positions near Damascus Monday, killing two civilians and causing
material damage, Syria's defense ministry said. It was the first Israeli attack
inside Syria since Russia, a key backer of President Bashar Assad, invaded
Ukraine.But Iran admitted that the dead were two Iranian Revolutionary Guard
officers.The Guard in a statement late Tuesday identified the two dead men as
colonels Ehsan Karbalaipour and Morteza Saeednejad. It said in the same
statement that Israel would "pay for this crime.”
Iran Vows Revenge for 2 Officers Killed by Israel in
Syria
Associated Press/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Iran's foreign ministry strongly condemned on Wednesday the killing of two
Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers in an Israeli missile attack on the Syrian
capital. The foreign ministry's website quoted ministry spokesman Saeed
Khatibzadeh as saying revenge for the Monday strike will definitely be taken.
The Guard in a statement late Tuesday identified the two dead men as colonels
Ehsan Karbalaipour and Morteza Saeednejad. It said in the same statement that
Israel would "pay for this crime."Hundreds of Iranian forces have died in combat
against the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq. Iran says its forces there
are only advisors.
Israel's President Heads to Turkey in Bid to Rebuild
Ties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Israel's president heads to Turkey Wednesday to meet his counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, the first visit by an Israeli head of state since 2007, as the
countries seek to mend fractured ties. President Isaac Herzog's visit to Ankara
and Istanbul was in the making weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, but the
conflict could feature at the talks, with both Israel and Turkey playing
mediation roles in recent days, AFP reported. But bilateral issues are likely to
dominate following more than a decade of diplomatic rupture between the Jewish
state and majority Muslim Turkey, a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause.
Those issues include gas sales to Europe, a topic that has acquired added
urgency amid the Ukraine conflict. Relations froze after the death of 10
civilians following an Israeli raid on the Turkish Mavi Marmara ship, part of a
flotilla trying to breach an embargo by carrying aid into the Gaza Strip in
2010. A 2016 reconciliation agreement that saw the return of ambassadors all but
collapsed in 2018 in the wake of border clashes with Gaza, that saw dozens of
Palestinians killed.
Turkey recalled its diplomats and ordered Israel's envoy out of the country.
- Israel 'not the needy side' -
In recent months, however, the countries have sought a rapprochement. Israel's
presidency is traditionally a ceremonial post but Herzog, a veteran of the
left-wing Labor party, has taken on a high-profile diplomatic role. Erdogan and
Herzog have spoken several times since Herzog's inauguration in July. Israeli
leaders were wary of Turkey's outreach. But Erdogan's move to secure the release
of an Israeli couple arrested in Istanbul in November on espionage charges
proved a "turning point," said Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv University's
Institute for National Security Studies. The matter "generated dialogue between
the Israeli and Turkish side, and essentially opened the opportunity for
improved relations," said Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher and Turkey expert.
Following the 2010 crisis, Israel created a strategic alliance with Greece and
Cyprus, two states with long-standing acrimony towards Erdogan's Turkey, holding
in recent years regular trilateral meetings and conducting joint military
drills. The trio were part of the "East Mediterranean Gas Forum" established in
2019 with other states, including Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian territories
-- without Turkey. In 2020, Israel, Greece and Cyprus signed the EastMed deal
for a pipeline to ship gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe, triggering
objections from Ankara. The United States has since also raised concern about
the project, citing possible issues over its "commercial viability."For Turkey,
that frustration over its exclusion from the gas talks -- as well as an internal
economic crisis, and a more confrontational US administration since President
Joe Biden's election -- has pushed Ankara closer to Israel, Lindenstrauss said.
And the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which saw Israel strike normalization
agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and re-establish ties with
Morocco, have made it clear that this time Israel "is not the needy side of the
equation" with Turkey, she told AFP.
Ukraine, Greece, Cyprus -
Israeli officials have said that Herzog and Erdogan may discuss prospects of
exporting Israeli gas to Europe through Turkey, a notion raised by Erdogan in
January, amid fears of impaired supply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also stepped into the role as a
Russia-Ukraine mediator at the weekend, meeting with President Vladimir Putin at
the Kremlin for three hours on Saturday, and speaking to Ukraine's President
Volodymyr Zelensky three times in a day. Erdogan is also in contact with Putin
and Zelensky, while Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is set to host his
Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in southern Turkey on Thursday. Regional ties
also remain sensitive, and Herzog visited both Greece and Cyprus ahead of his
Turkey trip to reassure the two Israeli allies. If Erdogan's Israel outreach
"reflects more moderacy in Turkey's foreign policy, it's also good news for
Greece and Cyprus," Lindenstrauss said. Herzog also will meet with members of
the Jewish community in Istanbul, before returning to Israel on Thursday.
Israeli Army Chief on Official Visit to Bahrain
Naharnet/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Israeli army chief Aviv Kohavi arrived Wednesday in Bahrain for a historic first
visit by an Israeli army commander to the tiny Gulf kingdom, the Israeli army
said. He was welcomed by Chief of Staff of the Bahraini Defense Force,
Lieutenant General Theyab Bin Saqer al-Noaimi.
Canada will send Ukraine another shipment of military
equipment, Trudeau says
Reuters/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday said he told Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a call that Canada will send Ukraine another
shipment of highly-specialized military equipment.
Trudeau said in a tweet that he also invited Zelenskiy to address Canada's
parliament.
West to Russia: Do Not Sabotage Iran Deal with New
Conditions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Western powers on Tuesday warned Russia against wrecking an almost completed
deal on bringing the United States and Iran back into compliance with the 2015
nuclear accord, as Iran's top negotiator was set to return from consultations in
Tehran. Eleven months of talks to restore the deal which lifted sanctions on
Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program have reached their final stages.
But they have been complicated by a last-minute demand from Russia for
guarantees from the United States that Western sanctions targeting Moscow over
its invasion of Ukraine would not affect its business with Iran.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said Russia
was seeking to reap extra benefits from its participation in the effort to
restore the nuclear agreement, but it will not succeed. "Russia is trying to up
the ante and broaden its demands with regard to the (nuclear deal) and we are
not playing 'Let’s make a deal'," Nuland, the No. 3 US diplomat, told a Senate
Foreign Relations Committee hearing. Iran's top negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani is
due back in Vienna on Wednesday after unexpectedly returning to Tehran on Monday
for consultations, an Iranian and a European official said. The talks'
coordinator, Enrique Mora of the European Union, said on Monday the time had
come for political decisions to be taken to end the negotiations."The window of
opportunity is closing. We call on all sides to make the decisions necessary to
close this deal now, and on Russia not to add extraneous conditions to its
conclusion," Britain, France and Germany said in a joint statement to the UN
nuclear watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors. Iran has sought to remove all
sanctions and it wants guarantees from the United States that it will not
abandon the agreement once more, after then-US President Donald Trump walked out
of the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions.
Diplomats have said until now that several differences still needed to be
overcome in the talks, including the extent to which sanctions on Iran, notably
its elite revolutionary guards, would be rolled back and what guarantees
Washington would give if it were to again renege on the deal.
Two Western officials said there was now a final text on the table and those
issues had been resolved, Reuters reported. While they couldn't rule out further
last-minute surprises, they said the last big open question was whether Russia's
demands were manageably narrow and limited to nuclear cooperation spelled out in
the agreement, as Moscow's envoy to the talks has told other parties, or much
broader, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described them. "We are
very close to an agreement. It is essential we conclude while we still can,"
France's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters in a
daily briefing. "We are concerned by the risks that further delays could weigh
on the possibility of concluding," she said. Moscow threw the potential wrench
in the works on Saturday, just as months of indirect talks between Tehran and
Washington in Vienna appeared to be headed for an agreement, with Lavrov saying
the Western sanctions over Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the nuclear
deal. The EU's Mora and Russia's top negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov held talks in
Vienna on Tuesday evening, exchanging views on the "current developments and way
ahead," Moscow's envoy said on Twitter.
Western officials say there is common interest in avoiding a nuclear
nonproliferation crisis, and they are trying to ascertain whether what Russia is
demanding regards only its commitments to the Iran deal. That would be
manageable, but anything beyond that would be problematic, they say. The new
agreement would lead to Russia taking in excess highly enriched uranium that
would be taken out of Iran to bring Tehran back into compliance with the
original deal's caps on the purity and amount of the enriched uranium it is
stockpiling. Rosatom, a state-run company formed by Russian President Vladimir
Putin in 2007, is key to that and has still not been added to Western sanctions.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken played down the issue during a visit to
Estonia on Tuesday and said Russia and the United States still shared a desire
to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. European negotiators from
France, Britain, and Germany had already temporarily left the talks as they
believed they had gone as far as they could go and it was now up to the two main
protagonists to agree on outstanding issues.
Russia Again Promises to Let Ukrainians Flee
‘Apocalyptic’ Sieges
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Russia announced a new ceasefire in Ukraine on Wednesday to let civilians flee
besieged cities, after days of mostly failed promises that have left hundreds of
thousands trapped without access to medicine or fresh water. Wednesday's
announcement of "silence" was similar to one on Tuesday that promised safe
passage from the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol. So far,
only one corridor has been opened, out of Sumy on Tuesday. Ukraine said it too
had agreed to halt fire between 9:00 a.m. and 9:00 p.m. (0700-1900 GMT) to let
civilians escape besieged cities through six corridors. In a televised
statement, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk called on Moscow to observe
local ceasefires. The greatest alarm has been sounded over Mariupol, a southern
port totally surrounded by Russian troops for more than a week, where the Red
Cross has described the situation faced by civilians as "apocalyptic".
Residents there have been sheltering underground from relentless bombardment,
unable to evacuate their wounded, and with no access to food, water, power or
heat.A series of local ceasefires to let them leave have failed since Saturday.
Kyiv said 30 buses and eight trucks of supplies failed to reach it on Tuesday
after they came under Russian shelling in violation of the ceasefire. Moscow has
blamed Kyiv for failing to halt fire. In Ukraine's two biggest cities, Kyiv and
Kharkiv, Russia's safe passage offer would force civilians to go to Russia
itself or its ally Belarus, proposals rejected by Kyiv.
More than 2 million people have fled Ukraine since President Vladimir Putin
launched the invasion nearly two weeks ago. Moscow calls its action a "special
military operation" to disarm its neighbor and dislodge leaders it calls
"neo-Nazis." Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss that as a baseless pretext for
an unprovoked war against a democratic country of 44 million people.
'Isolation'
The war has swiftly cast Russia into economic isolation never before visited on
such a large economy. The United States said on Wednesday it was banning imports
of Russian oil, a major change in policy after energy was previously exempted
from sanctions. Western companies have mostly withdrawn from the Russian market.
In a stark symbol, McDonalds said on Tuesday it was shutting its nearly 850
restaurants in Russia. Its first, which drew huge queues to Moscow's Pushkin
Square when it opened in 1990, had been an emblem of the end of the Cold War.
Starbucks, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and others made similar announcements. Russia said
on Wednesday it was preparing a swift response to sanctions that would hit the
West's most sensitive areas. Banishing Russia, the world's top exporter of
combined oil and gas, from markets is sending shockwaves through the global
economy at a time when supply chains are already stretched and inflation in the
developed world is at levels not seen since the 1980s. Retail fuel pump prices
have surged to records. Both Ukraine and Russia are also major global exporters
of food and metals. Prices of grain and food oils have soared worldwide,
punishing poor countries in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Trade in nickel,
critical in electric vehicle production, was called off on Tuesday in London
after the price more than doubled. Ukraine said on Wednesday it was banning
exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt, and meat for the rest of
the year.
'War machine'
US President Joe Biden acknowledged that Americans' bills would rise but said it
was necessary to restrict Russia's ability to wage war. "The American people
will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine," he said. Britain said
it would phase out Russian oil and oil products imports by the end of 2022,
while the European Union published plans to cut its reliance on Russian gas by
two thirds this year It says it now has enough gas for the rest of the winter.
China, which signed a friendship pact with Russia three weeks before the
invasion, has yet to join the West in condemning Moscow or imposing sanctions.
Washington has raised the prospect of acting against Chinese firms that sell
Russian technology. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the New York Times
Washington could "essentially shut" down Semiconductor Manufacturing
International Corp or any Chinese companies that continued to supply chips or
other advanced technology to Russia. US intelligence chiefs told lawmakers on
Tuesday that China appeared to have been unsettled by the difficulties Russia
was facing in Ukraine and the strength of the Western reaction. Persistent high
oil prices prompted by Russia's invasion could cut a full percentage point off
the growth of large oil-importing developing economies like China, Indonesia,
South Africa and Turkey, a World Bank official said.
'Our task'
Western countries believe Moscow had aimed to quickly topple the Kyiv government
in a lightning strike two weeks ago, and is now being forced to recalibrate its
military campaign after underestimating Ukrainian resistance. It has taken
substantial territory in the south, but has yet to capture any of the major
cities in northern or eastern Ukraine, with its main assault force stalled for
more than a week on a highway north of Kyiv. Russia is desperate for some kind
of victory in cities like Mariupol and Kyiv, before it negotiates peace, Vadym
Denysenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, wrote on Facebook on
Wednesday. "Therefore, our task is to withstand for the next 7-10 days," he
said. As Russian forces press their offensive in the south, Ukrainians fear the
next big target will be Odessa, Ukraine's main Black Sea port. Residents are
preparing to defend the historic city of 1 million, a polyglot center of culture
with wide resonance for Ukrainians and Russians alike. A giant blue and yellow
banner reading "Odessa-Ukraine" was draped atop sandbags in the near-deserted
city center. "We did not surrender Odessa to Hitler, and we will not surrender
it to anyone else," said Galyna Zitser, director of the Odessa Philharmonic,
which on Tuesday put on its first performance since the crisis began.
U.S. Deploys Two Patriot Missile Defense Batteries in
Poland
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The United States has deployed two new Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries
in Poland, in keeping with commitments to defend its NATO allies, a senior
Pentagon official said Wednesday. The missile batteries, normally stationed in
Germany, were repositioned at Poland's "invitation," the official said on
condition of anonymity.The move is seen as reflecting growing fear that a
Russian missile could -- deliberately or not -- cross the border from
neighboring Ukraine into NATO member Poland.
Battleground Ukraine: Day 14 of Russia's Invasion
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
On the 14th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces were encircling
at least four major cities Wednesday as Kyiv braced for a possible assault. The
capital remains under Ukrainian control but at increasing risk of seeing itself
surrounded, with many observers believing Russia is still aiming to capture the
city. Here is a summary of the situation on the ground, based on statements from
both sides, Western defense and intelligence sources and international
organizations.
The east
Kharkiv remains in Ukrainian hands despite increasingly intense Russian
bombardment, according to Western sources, and the city is likely now
surrounded. Russian forces are also pressing an offensive through the separatist
Donetsk and Lugansk regions that are backed by Russia, though how far they have
penetrated remains unclear. The city of Sumy in northeast Ukraine is now
encircled by Russian troops. Some 5,000 civilians were able to escape on Tuesday
on around 60 buses.
- Kyiv and the north -
Kyiv remains under Ukrainian control despite heavy bombardments, though Western
observers point to a Russian column of hundreds of vehicles outside the city.
The British defense ministry said that there was fighting northwest of Kyiv but
that Russian forces were "failing to make any significant breakthrough."Russian
forces are concentrated 60 kilometers outside Kyiv and are seeking to attack
from the east, according to the U.S. Defense Department. The Washington-based
Institute for the Study of War said forces appeared to be concentrating for an
assault on Kyiv in the next four days. Ukrainian forces also retain control of
the northern town of Chernihiv, which has seen heavy civilian casualties in
recent days and appears to be encircled.
- The south -
Russia has besieged the strategic city of Mariupol, and attempts to evacuate an
estimated 200,000 civilians from the city have so far failed. Taking the city
would allow Russia to link forces pushing north from the annexed Ukrainian
peninsula of Crimea with their forces from the east.
The major port city of Odessa remains under Ukrainian control and has so far
been spared fighting. But the U.S. Defense Department said Russian ground forces
appeared primed to attack the city, possibly in coordination with an amphibious
assault. Russian forces last week took the southern city of Kherson, just north
of Crimea, and there is now heavy fighting for control of the city of Mykolayiv
to the northwest. Some sources believe Russia could bypass Mykolayiv and head
direct for Odessa.
- The west and center -
The west of Ukraine remains largely spared from the fighting. The main city of
Lviv has become a hub for foreign diplomatic missions and journalists as well as
Ukrainians seeking safety or wanting to leave the country.
- Casualties -
The United Nations said Tuesday that it had recorded 474 civilian deaths in
Ukraine, including 29 children, though the actual toll could be far higher.
Ukraine and Western sources claim that the Russian death toll is far higher than
Moscow has so far admitted to. Ukraine says more than 12,000 Russian soldiers
have been killed, though U.S. estimates put the number of Russians killed at
2,000 to 4,000. Russia's only official toll, announced last Wednesday, said 498
Russian troops had been killed in Ukraine.
- Refugees -
Some 2.16 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the invasion began, more than
half going to Poland, according to the U.N. refugee agency.
Young Ukrainian Dancers, Trapped Abroad, Get Paris
Residency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The dancers are torn between body and mind — physically on stage in Paris but in
spirit back home in Kyiv. In other circumstances, the Kyiv City Ballet's
residency at the Théâtre du Chatelet would be a dream come true, but the
stranded company of young dancers feels little but heartbreak. “We are both
physically and emotionally exhausted,” Ekaterina Kozlova, the company's deputy
director, told The Associated Press. “Everyone in the ballet is worried about
their families, loved ones, friends, colleagues at home. It’s been very
difficult.”The Théâtre du Chatelet, in the heart of the French capital, offered
them the stage on Tuesday for the last show of a French tour that has left the
company stranded after the war broke out in Ukraine. The dance director of the
Paris Opera along with some of her company’s best joined them for an open class
before performing together a medley of ballet classics, with excerpts from
Russian composer Pyotr Ilych Tchaikovsky’s Swan Lake and The Nutcracker. Being
given the opportunity to train and dance was for many a chance to focus on
“something other than the conflict in Ukraine,” Kozlova said. One of the dancers
will be headed to the Ukrainian border in the coming days to pick up her young
daughter who was accompanied out of the country. Only a part of the company was
travelling around France performing a shortened version of The Nutcracker for
young audiences — most of the dancers in Paris are in their early 20s. Many of
the ballet’s star dancers stayed behind, waiting to join their friends after
they reached Paris. “Most of our artists are stuck in Ukraine,” Director Ivan
Kozlov told the crowd. The city of Paris and the ballet community have helped
find temporary accommodation for the Ukrainian dancers who say they wish to
continue dancing in France and elsewhere. The Chatelet theater offered the
entire group a residency, although Tuesday's last-minute performance is their
last for now. All proceedings from their performances will go to nongovernmental
organizations collecting and shipping humanitarian aid to Ukraine and
neighboring countries. Ukrainian dancers have also sought refuge elsewhere. The
Romanian National Opera offered six ballet dancers fleeing from the war in
Ukraine a chance to work with their ballet corps, and some of them could be
performing in a month.
Ukraine War Deepens Economic Woes in Damascus
Damascus - London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022 -
The Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the suffering of Syrians as price hikes and
shortages of essential commodities sweep markets in the country. Despite
government promises, markets in Damascus and several other governorates saw over
a 50% price hike on all prices. Ahmed Khodr, a Syrian national living in the
town of Qadisa north of Damascus, says that three days have passed since stocks
of cooking oil have gone missing from commercial retailers and government
institutions. A liter of cooking oil peaked at SYP12,500. Khodr also reported a
shortage in some types of rice. “About ten days ago, the prices of all
commodities and foodstuffs began to rise daily and reached the point of the
absence of some of them,” Khodr told dpa. Khalil Muhammad, a Syrian national
living in the city of Zabadani, was shocked by the prices of some foodstuffs
shooting up by more than 50% within days. According to Muhammad, an 8-liter can
of corn oil coming from Lebanon was sold in Zabadani areas for SYP70,000 on
March 3. On March 4, the price rose to SYP110,000 under the pretext that the
Lebanese oil is imported from Ukraine. The Syrian Ministry of Internal Trade and
Consumer Protection announced it will introduce quantities of sunflower oil into
the markets, confirming that there is enough cooking oil stocks for prices to
gradually begin to decrease over the next two weeks. “We will all work with
traders and industrialists to secure the citizens’ requirements without denying
the new global situation,” said Minister of Internal Trade Amro Salem in a
Facebook post. Salem revealed that the ministry has signed contracts for 25,000
tons of sunflower oil that will take a month to arrive in Syria. The oil will be
priced appropriately and is imported from the Far East, affirmed Salem.
Egypt’s Sisi and Russia’s Putin Discuss Developments in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir
Putin spoke on Wednesday, the Egyptian presidency said, to discuss the latest
developments in Ukraine. Sisi and Putin also discussed enhancing strategic
cooperation frameworks between their countries through joint development
projects confirming "historic ties" between them.
Prince Hamza's Apology Ends 'Sedition' in Jordan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Jordan's King Abdullah received a letter of apology from former Crown Prince
Hamza, who was accused last year of trying to replace the monarch, pledging he
would never again act against the country's rulers, the royal palace said in a
statement on Tuesday. The palace, which released the text of the letter, said it
follows a meeting last Sunday at Prince Hamza's request with his half-brother
King Abdullah to ask for "forgiveness". He was accused last April of conspiring
to destabilize the monarchy in a foreign-inspired plot. "I have erred, Your
Majesty, and to err is human. I, therefore, bear responsibility for the stances
I have taken and the offenses I have committed against Your Majesty and our
country over the past years," Hamza said in the letter. "I apologize to Your
Majesty, to the people of Jordan, and to our family, for my actions which, God
willing, will not be repeated," he added.
The estranged prince, who had been placed under house arrest after accusing the
country's rulers of corruption, had pledged allegiance to the king shortly after
mediation by royal family elders. A former royal chief adviser, Bassem Awadallah,
and a minor royal were sentenced last July to 15 years in jail for their
involvement in the plot. King Abdullah described the crisis as "the most
painful" during his 22 years of rule because it came from both inside the royal
family and outside it. "I hope that we can turn the page on this chapter in our
country's and our family's history," Hamza said. Hamza's public apology paved
the way for rehabilitating the estranged prince and regaining public duties
after being removed from the royal succession, the palace said.
Iraq Oil Ministry Calls for Arrest of Fugitive MP over
'Extortion' Allegations
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The Iraqi Ministry of Oil requested on Tuesday that the Joint Operations Command
carry out the arrest warrant against fugitive MP MP Zahra al-Bajari, who is
wanted on extortion and misinformation charges. The warrant was issued by the
Federal Commission of Integrity - Investigation Department and head of the Basra
Federal Appeal Court - Investigation Court, specialized in integrity issues, the
ministry stated. The MP is accused of committing acts of misinformation and
blackmail against the Basra Oil Company for personal gain and narrow interests,
it added. Bajari “took advantage of her parliamentary position or exploited some
political figures to implement her goals of extortion, misinformation, and
deliberate abuse against the company work, projects and officials.”The statement
stressed that her acts resulted in “direct and indirect damage to various
important projects in the energy sector, disrupted and delayed their
implementation, and harmed the investment environment in the Basra Oil
Company.”The ministry called on the security forces and legislative bodies to
implement the judicial order to achieve justice. Iraqi MPs enjoy parliamentary
immunity that prevents their arrest. The immunity can be lifted if MPs vote in
favor of it. In May 2021, the Federal Supreme Court annulled the parliament's
right to lift immunity, saying it can only be removed in case an MP is accused
of criminal acts or violations.
Houthis Warn Israel, Touts Military Training
Joe Truzman/FDD's Long War Journal./Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Yemen’s Houthi movement (also known as Ansarallah) recently published a military
training video warning Israel of a potential response by the Iran-backed group
if conflict with the Palestinians or Hezbollah were to erupt.The publication
shows Houthi militants performing various training exercises including
hand-to-hand combat and weapons training on targets resembling the flag of
Israel. The publication included a threat subtitled in Hebrew warning Israel
that it needed to consider the Yemeni people before it involved itself in any
future confrontation with Hezbollah or the Palestinians. Although not as
impressive, the video is a near carbon copy of several publications by
Hezbollah’s Radwan Force which were disseminated online over the last two
years.The video offers some insight into the influence Hezbollah has within the
ranks of the Houthi movement which should not come as a surprise due to the
numerous reports of Hezbollah’s direct involvement in the Yemen conflict. As a
member of the Resistance Axis, the Houthis oppose Israel and regularly call for
its destruction. They have also accused Israel of participating in the Yemen
conflict since it began in 2015.
In 2019, Houthi Defense Minister Mohammed al-Atefi stated that the group had the
ability to strike Israel, saying it had a “bank of military and maritime targets
of the Zionist enemy” ready to be targeted when given the order. Despite the
recent threatening video and past warnings of an attack from Yemen, there is no
clear evidence demonstrating the Houthis having attempted to launch a military
operation against Israel. Such an attack would likely bring about a broad
response by the Israeli military compared to other recent high-profile attacks
targeting regional allies such as the UAE. [See FDD’s Long War Journal report:
Houthis Renew Attack on Abu Dhabi With Ballistic Missiles.]Up to now, the
Houthis have demonstrated they prefer to stick to publishing violent rhetoric
that imitates more established groups such as Hezbollah over carrying out
threats against Israel.
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French forces report killing Al Qaeda veteran in Mali
CALEB WEISS/FDD's Long War Journal//Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
Earlier today, the French military reported its forces as part of Operation
Barkhane, its counterterrorism mission in the Sahel, killed a veteran al Qaeda
fighter inside northern Mali last week.
France said a ground operation, supported by helicopters and drones, on the
night of February 25 succeeded in “neutralizing” Yahia Djouadi, who is also
known as Abu Ammar al Jaza’iri. Djouadi was a veteran Algerian member of the
upper echelons of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
Al Qaeda has not commented on the reports of Djouadi’s death as of the time of
publishing. According to France’s Ministry of Armed Forces, Djouadi was
reportedly killed 100km north of Mali’s Timbuktu in a “refuge for members” of al
Qaeda’s Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in the country’s northern
deserts. JNIM is a branch of AQIM and al Qaeda’s official wing in the Sahel and
wider West Africa. France and its various European allies are set to withdraw
from Mali following a severe diplomatic row between the ruling junta of Mali and
the European states, particularly France. The security forces are to redeploy
across the Sahel, leaving unanswered questions regarding the security of Mali.
Last week’s raid deep within Timbuktu’s desert may provide a template for the
future of unilateral French counter-terrorism operations moving forward. Paris
may also attempt to use the raid on Djouadi to show Mali’s ruling junta the
advantages of having French troops remain.
Djouadi’s Long History of Jihad
Providing background on Djouadi’s history, the French military reports that the
jihadist originally joined the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in Algeria in 1994
before continuing the jihad with the GIA’s splinter group the Salafist Group for
Preaching and Combat (GSPC) in 1998.
The GSPC would later be officially welcomed into al Qaeda’s global hierarchy in
2006 – though the group, through its second leader Nabil al Sahraoui, first
pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden in 2003. The GSPC then changed its name to
AQIM in early 2007. AQIM has since been al Qaeda’s official representative
across North Africa. While only briefly mentioned by the French, Djouadi was
first dispatched to northern Mali around 2007 when he took over the helm of
AQIM’s so-called ‘Saharan Emirate,’ or its command structure for its units based
in the Sahara and Sahel.
Djouadi was later replaced in 2011 by another Algerian, Nabil Abu Alqama, who
himself was replaced less than a year later after dying in a car accident.
Alqama’s replacement, Yahya Abu al Hammam, would later become the deputy emir of
JNIM in 2017 before his demise in 2019.
The French do note Djouadi’s close relationship with former AQIM emir,
Abdelmalek Droukdel, who took over after the aforementioned Nabil al Sahraoui in
2004. According to the French press statement, Djouadi was Droukdel’s “military
advisor” prior to Droukdel’s own death in northern Mali in 2020. This role would
conform to the US Treasury Department’s designation of Djouadi in 2008, noting
he was on AQIM’s central military committee before his appointment to northern
Mali.
At some point in 2015, however, Djouadi was transferred to Libya where the
French military notes he acted as the emir of AQIM’s forces in the country.
While AQIM’s activities inside Libya were relatively less public, the group used
the country’s chaos as a rear base for its operations in Algeria, Tunisia, and
the Sahel. And active inside Libya itself, AQIM trained and supported several
armed groups, most notably Ansar al Shari’a. The US military launched several
drone strikes on al Qaeda operatives inside Libya. It’s unclear what specific
activities inside Libya in which Djouadi was involved.
And in 2019, France states Djouadi was commanded to return to northern Mali
where he acted in the role of “financial and logistical coordinator” for both
JNIM and AQIM.
Djouadi’s history thus provides another case study into al Qaeda’s long history
inside both North Africa and the Sahel. Moreover, his position within both AQIM
and JNIM provides more evidence for how intertwined the two groups operate with
regards to JNIM’s position in AQIM’s overall hierarchy.
String of Al Qaeda Leaders Killed in the Sahel
While Djouadi’s fate is so far not confirmed by neither AQIM nor JNIM, his death
would just be the latest in a long string of deaths of al Qaeda leaders and
operatives inside the Sahel.
Last October, France said it killed Saghid Ag Alkhoror, the Tuareg emir of
JNIM’s Katibat Gourma, one of its most active sub-units.
Also in October, French forces also killed Oumar Mobo Modhi, one the main
improvised explosive device (IED) technicians of Ansaroul Islam, an al
Qaeda-linked group, in a strike in Burkina Faso.
While Ansaroul Islam is nominally independent, it was created in 2016 by a
Burkinabe veteran of al Qaeda’s jihad in Mali and other Mali-based al Qaeda
leaders. In more recent years, most of its elements have been officially
subsumed under the wider JNIM hierarchy or defected to the Islamic State in the
Greater Sahara.
In June of last year, Baye Ag Bakabo, a Tuareg jihadist linked to several
kidnappings of Westerners in Mali performed by al Qaeda, was killed by French
forces in northern Mali. In Nov. 2020, Bah Ag Moussa, another veteran Tuareg
jihadist who acted a deputy to JNIM’s overall emir Iyad Ag Ghaly, was killed by
the French in Mali’s northern Menaka region. And in 2019, two other senior
leaders, Abu Abdul Rahman al Sanhaji and the aforementioned Yahya Abu al Hammam,
were also struck down by French forces. Leadership decapitation can indeed
remove individuals with a deep history of experience or network connections such
as with Yahia Djouadi. But al Qaeda’s men in the Sahel, like the global jihadist
organization’s men elsewhere around the world, has routinely shown the ability
to weather such losses and rely on its deep bench of players to continue its
operations. As such, al Qaeda’s forces continue to be a serious threat to
security not only in Mali but in the wider Sahel region overall. Caleb Weiss is
a contributor to FDD's Long War Journal and a senior analyst at the Bridgeway
Foundation, where he focuses on the spread of the Islamic State in Central
Africa.
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U.S. Treasury Designates Four ISIS Financiers in South
Africa
ANDREW TOBIN/FDD's Long War Journal/Wednesday, 9 March, 2022
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced
that four financial facilitators working for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) and ISIS-Mozambique (ISIS-M) have been designated. These money men, based
in South Africa, are integral in facilitating the transfer of funds from ISIS’s
financial networks to its branches across the African continent. Treasury
asserted that these “key ISIS supporters” have been exploiting South Africa’s
financial system to bankroll ISIS insurgent and terrorist networks across
Africa. Treasury also states that ISIS has attempted to expand its presence in
Africa, relying on “local fundraising schemes” such as extortion, theft, and
kidnapping as well as financial support from the “ISIS hierarchy.” The four
individuals listed within Treasury’s designation were identified as: Farhad
Hoomer, Siraj Miller, Abdella Hussein Abadigga and Peter Charles Mbaga.
Hoomer, who reportedly leads an ISIS cell based in Durban, South Africa, has
“recruited and trained cell members” while raising funds through
“kidnap-for-ransom operations and extortion of major businesses,” according to
Treasury.
In 2018, South African authorities arrested Hoomer for a plot to detonate
incendiary devices near a mosque and various commercial buildings in Durban.
However, in 2020, he and the other 11 suspects were released as the case against
them was struck off the roll – though it is clear from Treasury’s designation
Hoomer continues to be involved in illicit activity in support of ISIS.
Treasury’s statement indicated that Hoomer was in direct contact with members of
the ISIS cell in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ISIS-DRC), locally known
as the Allied Democratic Forces, and provided “residential properties and
vehicles” to support operational activities in South Africa. Treasury also
designated Siraj Miller. In the designation, Treasury decscribed Miller as the
leader of an ISIS cell in Cape Town, South Africa, who trained militants in
conducting robberies to raise funds for the group.
Islamic State-linked individuals have conducted several robberies and
kidnappings-for-ransom to support ISIS operations elsewhere. For instance, in
2018, two suspected ISIS supporters in Johannesburg kidnapped a British couple,
also using their credit cards to purchase electronic and communications
equipment.
Another suspected ISIS cell in Kliprivier, a town outside of Johannesburg, was
also linked to “terrorism, murder, attempted murder, extortion and arson.”
Hoomer, the man sanctioned yesterday by Treasury, has been accused by South
African officials of leading that cell.
Another individual sanctioned, Abdella Hussein Abadigga, was described as
reportedly controlling “two mosques in South Africa,” using this position to
extort money from the local community and recruit young South African men for
ISIS training camps.
He was also reportedly a key conduit for ISIS financing throughout southern and
eastern Africa, sending funds from his mosque to other ISIS branches via the
hawala payment system. Treasury notes his close relationship to the ISIS branch
in Somalia, which has also been linked to ISIS operatives in South Africa.
The last person designated, Peter Charles Mbaga, was sanctioned for securing
weapons and funds for ISIS fighters in northern Mozambique, funneling supplies
from South Africa to the Cabo Delgado-based jihadist insurgency.
The four individuals listed fit the recent pattern of ISIS-affiliates inside
Africa engaging in crime to fund the organization’s activities across the
continent. For instance, in Somalia, businesses in Mogadishu’s infamous Bakara
Market closed after ISIS extorted shop owners. These businesses already had to
pay some form of taxes to both the Somali government and Al Shabaab; however,
ISIS joined in the extortion of Somalia’s largest market to bolster funding.
Additionally, in 2018, ISIS-Somalia began collecting “taxes” from businesses in
Bosaso, an urban center in Puntland, using similar extortion rackets. According
to Puntland security officials, ISIS collected $72,000 a month through these
taxes in Bosaso, which it used to fuel its operations within Somalia and across
the continent. Furthermore, in 2016, Treasury sanctioned Islamic State financier
Mire Ali used a livestock trading business as a front to support ISIS cells in
the Bari region of Somalia. The ISIS insurgency in northern Mozambique is
likewise also mired in the regional illicit economies and activities, giving
more weight to Treasury’s recent sanctions combatting the global jihadist
group’s African financial conduits.
These three cases demonstrate that the four newly-sanctioned South African ISIS
financial facilitators have been following the Islamic State’s standard
practices for making money in Africa.
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benefitted you or your team over the years? Support our independent reporting
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The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
March 09-10/2022
Putin’s troops ravage Ukraine while his envoy steers Team
Biden’s talks with Iran
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/March 09/2022
We all have our patterns of behavior.
Start with Russian President Vladimir Putin who, over the more than two decades
he’s ruled Russia, has assassinated dissidents, slaughtered Chechens, detached
two provinces from neighboring Georgia and seized Crimea from Ukraine while
fueling conflict in the east of that country. He’s also helped the Assad regime
kill Syrians — half a million and counting.
On Feb. 24, Mr. Putin again invaded Ukraine. He has been using artillery and
dumb bombs to murder men, women and children, and reduce cities to rubble. His
apparent goal is to subjugate Ukraine, to strip it of its independence,
sovereignty and freedom. Move on to President Biden who, during his first year
in the White House, capitulated on the battlefield in Afghanistan to the
Taliban, a terrorist organization joined at the hip to al Qaeda. He left behind
more weapons than a Ukrainian general could dream of. He then declared that
mission a success.
Mr. Biden now appears eager to capitulate at the negotiating table in Vienna to
the Islamic Republic of Iran, a regime that funds and instructs Hezbollah,
Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthi movement in Yemen whose catchy
slogan is “Allah is Greater, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the
Jews, Victory to Islam.” He’ll then declare that mission a success.
While Mr. Biden’s stated intention is to isolate Mr. Putin, his diplomats in
Vienna continue to work hand-in-glove with Mikhail Ulyanov, Mr. Putin’s envoy.
That’s because the theocratic regime’s negotiators — as a matter of
revolutionary Islamic principle — have refused to sit at the same table with
Americans. The Biden team has meekly accepted this humiliation.
According to sources, Mr. Ulyanov is not just a go-between but “the dominant
player,” proposing compromises to the Americans (who are always flexible) and to
the Iranians (who never are). As for Mr. Ulyanov’s interests, do you suppose
they are peace, international security, nuclear nonproliferation and a “win-win”
outcome? Or does he want to please Mr. Putin by helping Iran’s rulers further
humble and diminish the United States?
On Saturday, Moscow demanded a written guarantee that any sanctions imposed
because of its war on Ukraine will not “in any way damage” its commercial and
military relationship with the Islamic Republic. The Biden administration has
rejected that demand — for now.
Perhaps you think, as does the U.S. State Department, that “Russia shares a
common interest in ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.” If so, think
again. Mr. Putin calculates that any nuclear-tipped ICBMs produced by Iran’s
rulers will be pointed at America and used to keep America at bay while their
proxies conquer and/or destroy more of the Middle East than they already have.
When Mr. Biden’s “indirect” talks with the clerical regime began, he vowed to
produce a “longer and stronger” variant of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action that former President Barack Obama concluded in 2015 and from which
former President Donald Trump exited in 2018. It’s now clear that a shorter and
weaker variant — more economic relief in exchange for fewer verifiable
restrictions — has been taking shape. It’s not only sources who say so. It’s
also Mr. Ulyanov. “Realistically speaking Iran got more than frankly I expected,
others expected,” he told one reporter. “This is a matter of fact.”
He added: The “Iranian clerics are fighting for Iranian nuclear — national
interests like lions. They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule,
quite successfully.”Mr. Biden’s deal will provide Iran’s rulers with billions of
dollars that they can spend on arms and even nuclear power plants (for peaceful
purposes only!) from Russia, and use to fund terrorists, and threaten their
American-allied neighbors.
Mr. Biden won’t submit his deal to Congress as a treaty (as he clearly should)
so it won’t bind the next administration. But Russian and Iranian negotiators
are reportedly looking for a workaround.
For example, they might persuade Mr. Biden to agree that Iran’s enriched uranium
be stored in Russia, with the condition that it will be returned to Iran if, at
any time, Mr. Putin and Iran’s rulers jointly declare that the Americans are
violating the agreement.
Or they might insist on an “inherent guarantee” that Iran’s rulers get to keep
their advanced centrifuges on standby with permission to continue enriching at
60% if they decide the U.S. has transgressed.
By contrast, noncompliance and even out-and-out cheating by the theocratic
regime will be ignored or forgiven. We know that based on our experience with
the JCPOA.
Relatedly, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi,
said on Saturday that a new deal cannot be concluded unless Tehran first settles
outstanding issues relating to nuclear material found at former Iranian nuclear
sites that the regime failed to declare.
That will require months. Can a deal be announced before these issues are
settled? Logically no but, in the current era, logic is not a major component in
the patterns of behavior driving American foreign policy.
Was it logical to respond to Mr. Putin’s many crimes over the years with a salad
of carrots and not enough sticks to make a bonfire?
Was it logical to invite him to partner with the U.S. in negotiations with
Iran’s rulers while excluding the American allies most threatened by Iran’s
rulers?Is it logical to give the theocrats in Tehran the means to do in the
Middle East what Mr. Putin is doing in eastern Europe?
The Biden administration — building on the record of too many of its
predecessors — has been establishing a shameful and damaging pattern of behavior:
It is proving to be harmless as an enemy and treacherous as a friend.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and a columnist for the Washington Times.
New Iran Nuclear Deal? Same Old Missile Problems.
Behnam Ben Taleblu/The Dispatch/March 09/2022 |
The U.S. and Europe ignore Iranian missile tech developments at their own peril.
The Biden administration is nearing a deal with Iran that it hopes could put the
Islamic Republic’s nuclear program “back in a box.” The problem? The
agreement—which aims to restore the 2015 accord called the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA)—would also relax restrictions on ballistic missiles, a
weapon the U.S. intelligence community assessed only months after the JCPOA was
implemented as Iran’s “preferred method of delivering nuclear weapons, if it
builds them.”
For more than a decade, the U.S. intelligence community has continuously
affirmed that Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is the biggest in the Middle
East. Iran uses these missiles to intimidate and punish its adversaries while
deterring a military reprisal. In a December 2021 interview, U.S. CENTCOM
Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie identified Iran’s missiles as “a more immediate
threat than its nuclear program.” Iranian officials have worked assiduously to
make that the case, enhancing the range, accuracy, and mobility of their
missiles, while also proliferating whole systems and components parts to their
proxies to use in attacks on U.S. partners. Any deal predicated on the JCPOA—or
its accompanying U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231—that removes
restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program, provides sanctions relief to
its supporters, and ignores recent and groundbreaking Iranian ballistic missile
developments would be a strategic mistake.
According to Annex B of UNSCR 2231, international prohibitions against Iranian
ballistic missile tests and related activities will lapse in October 2023. In
2015 when the JCPOA was reached, this was sold as an eight-year moratorium.
Unless amended, in 2022 however, the ban will be in place for only little longer
than one year. While Iran has never respected this injunction—launching a
combination of at least 27 surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) and space-launch
vehicles (SLVs) while the U.S. was a party to the deal—the prohibition is the
result of several last minute Iranian negotiating victories from 2015.
UNSCR 2231 amends an older and more stringent resolution containing a permanent
ban on Iranian ballistic missile tests. The new injunction against missile
testing lapsing in 2023 is but one of several phased prohibitions popularly
termed “sunsets.” Iran, likely assisted by its Russian and Chinese lawyers in
the P5+1 negotiating mechanism, successfully replicated and pushed for the
sunset-driven model to be applied other areas as well, be it lapsing
restrictions on its nuclear program found in the JCPOA or the now terminated
prohibition against conventional arms transfers from UNSCR 2231.
Making matters worse, the circumscribed missile prohibition was also caveated.
Employing deferential language, UNSCR 2231 “calls upon Iran” not to partake in
activities related to ballistic missiles that were “designed to be capable of
delivering nuclear weapons.” And in addition to begetting overly technical
debates pertaining to intention and design for known Iranian ballistic missile
types, the distinction further redounded to Iran’s favor by ignoring that we
still do not know everything about Iran’s past weaponization and miniaturization
efforts, and that more broadly, ballistic missiles could be used to deliver
other forms of WMD, such as chemical weapons. As a reminder, in 2016 the U.S.
intelligence community seemingly left room for such an interpretation of Iran’s
missile force when it judged that, “Iran’s ballistic missiles are inherently
capable of delivering WMD.” The Islamic Republic has previously developed,
employed, and even transferred chemical weapons.
Also in negotiations leading to the 2015 JCPOA, Tehran and its advocates further
stymied efforts by Washington to make a case against Iranian violations by
terminating an impartial “panel of experts” that previously investigated claims
of violations pursuant to a mandate from older Iran-related resolutions. The
Trump administration tried but failed to resurrect this panel in 2020. Instead
of a panel, UNSCR 2231 requires only reports of alleged violations on a biannual
basis.
Beyond the problem of lawyerly language and deference to Iran in UNSCR 2231 is a
larger challenge created by EU and U.S. sanctions relief under the auspices of
the JCPOA. According to the accord’s previous sanctions annex, the EU (as well
as the U.K., given its autonomous post-Brexit Iran sanctions regime) is on track
to remove from sanctions lists a broad swath of Iranian defense firms supportive
of the regime’s ballistic missile program in October 2023. These are entities
inclusive of, and tied to, the sanctioned Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces
Logistics (MODAFL), it’s various front companies and subsidiaries that aid
specific parts of the ballistic missile program such as development of liquid-
and solid-propellant systems, as well the sanctioned Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) and its missile branch, the IRGC Aerospace Force (IRGC-AF).
Retaining this schedule for delisting, which again was subject to an eight-year
timeline in 2015 but now will be removed in just over a year, would make
transatlantic coordination against Iran’s ballistic missile program more
difficult. This raises questions as to how an already sanctions-skeptic and
risk-averse administration might punish Iranian procurement nodes operating on
the soil of an American ally. Lest the administration forget, then-candidate
Biden pledged in an op-ed in 2020 to continue pressuring Iran’s ballistic
missile program through targeted non-nuclear sanctions.
But based on what has been reported several times in 2021, non-nuclear sanctions
relief undoing penalties imposed on Iran during the Trump administration is very
much on the table, raising wider concerns about the dividends an agreement could
provide Tehran. U.S. officials may have hinted at their willingness to offer
such relief last year when they spoke of their preparedness to lift all
sanctions deemed “inconsistent” with the JCPOA.
Accordingly, under the auspices of JCPOA reentry, the Biden administration might
directly or indirectly remove sanctions on Iran’s missile program and its
supporters, certain sectors of Iran’s economy aiding the missile program, as
well as enable Iran access to frozen funds. Any or all of these moves will put
Tehran’s ballistic missile and military technology procurement, production, and
proliferation networks on steroids. Seemingly getting ready to compound the
infusion of cash headed its way, the Iranian Parliament has already called for
an allocation of 4.5 million euros from National Iranian Oil Company revenues to
go toward the country’s defense capabilities.
This brings us to the final leg of the troika as to why a deal predicated on the
JCPOA or UNSCR 2231 is a strategic mistake: ongoing Iranian ballistic missile
advances. Iranian officials have never been shy about claiming that their
missile program is non-negotiable. Nor have they been shy about touting their
missile prowess and advances.
Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, who leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Aerospace Force recently exclaimed that, “The firepower and simultaneous
launches of our missiles have increased 6 to 7 fold, and the preparation time
and preparation intervals for launches have been greatly reduced.” Reducing
sanctions pressure and making revenues more available for a program that has
been able to advance while under pressure would embolden rather than placate the
Islamic Republic. This can make a regional military conflict involving ballistic
missiles more likely in the short-to-medium term given Iranian confidence in
their systems. It can even expedite the ongoing evolution in Iran’s security
strategy from deterrent and defensive to offensive and coercive.
This is not theoretical. As Tehran’s ballistic missile aptitudes evolved in the
post-JCPOA era, so did its risk tolerance. Iran resumed ballistic missile
operations from its own territory against foreign targets, engaging in four
publicized operations between 2017 and 2020. Throughout 2021 and into 2022,
despite indirect nuclear diplomacy taking place between Iran and the U.S., Iran
continued to carry out military drills featuring short-range ballistic missiles
(SRBMs, which can travel up to 1,000 kilometers) and medium-range ballistic
missiles (MRBMs, which can travel between 1,000 – 3,0000 kilometers), launching
a reported 16 missiles during a drill conducted by the IRGC in late December, as
well as to parading and releasing new systems.
This February, Iran unveiled and tested the latest upgrade to its domestically
produced line of solid-propellant surface-to-surface missiles originating from
the Fateh ballistic missile. Dubbed the “Kheybar Shekan,” or “Breaker of Kheybar,”
the missile’s moniker memorializes an early Islamic military campaign against
Jewish tribes in Arabia. The name is no accident, as the Islamic Republic is no
stranger to courting antisemitism with its missile launches. The missile’s
reported range of 1,450 kilometers establishes it as the third solid-propellant
MRBM in Tehran’s arsenal. Solid-propellant systems are prized for their mobility
and the speed with which they can be prepped prior to launch. Such systems have
featured prominently in the four aforementioned Iranian military operations from
2017-2020.
Notably, the regime also did not curb, but rather sped up, its space-launch
vehicle flight-tests, which offer a way to get around a self-imposed ballistic
missile range cap of 2,000 kilometers and keep a pathway open for an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability. Given that space-launch
vehicles and ICBMs use similar technologies, an SLV program can inform an ICBM
pathway through testing and studies of engines, staging, and more. In 2019, then
IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami framed the ban as being purely
political, claiming, “We have no technical limitations in increasing [missile]
range, accuracy of missiles at long ranges, destructive power, and strong
propulsive forces.” Salami then issued a threat, “If based on a conspiracy,
today the Europeans or others want to pursue the missile disarmament of the
Islamic Republic of Iran, we will be forced to make a strategic leap.”
Previously, the U.S. intelligence community judged that, “Iran’s progress on
space launch vehicles—along with its desire to deter the United States and its
allies—provides Tehran with the means and motivation to develop longer-range
missiles, including ICBMs.” This has remained a near consistent assessment in
U.S. government reporting on Iran, whether it be from the Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA), multiple other Worldwide Threat Assessments by the director of
national intelligence (DNI), and the National Air and Space Intelligence
Committee (NASIC).
As I have previously assessed, datapoints from Iran’s progress on
solid-propellants and increased SLV testing also supports the conclusion that
Iran is working toward a full solid-propellant SLV, which would be a
game-changer and in turn the clearest indication of its long-range strike
capabilities evolving toward a potential ICBM capability. Iran has produced at
least two solid-propellant motors, the smaller Salman motor in 2020, and larger
Rafee motor in 2022, for its SLVs. It also already has two SLVs—the Qased and
the Zuljanah—employing at least one solid-propellant motor in one of its stages.
Both the Salman and the Rafee have thrust-vectoring capabilities and share other
similarities. And just last month, a hardline Iranian newspaper heralded the
Rafee as bringing ICBM-class missiles “more within range than ever” for Iran.
But Iran need not rush to an ICBM tomorrow to keep closing the gap between
medium-range missiles and what it’s space-launch vehicles might be able to offer
in terms of range. Iran has reportedly worked on improving the Khorramshahr
ballistic missile, whose range Iran has grown through warhead modifications.
Initially billed as an MRBM by Iranian sources, the Khorramshahr is based on a
liquid-propellant nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM,
which can travel between 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers) that Iran received from
North Korea in the early 2000s. According to European reports to the U.N. in
2019, Iran’s new Khorramshahr variant is now essentially an IRBM. U.N. reports
have also assessed that Iran and North Korea “resumed cooperation on long-range
missile development projects” in 2020.
The U.S. and Europe ignore these developments at their own peril. An Iranian
IRBM and potentially ICBM capability is coming, and perhaps sooner than one
might think. In the face of such a possibility, the worst thing Washington might
do is ink an agreement like the JCPOA that offers sanctions relief to Iran’s
missile underwriters, ignores the evolution in Iran’s ballistic missile forces,
and waters down U.N. restrictions all while failing to block a pathway toward an
ICBM capability. Borrowing from the famed French diplomat Talleyrand, inking
such an agreement as a stand in for counterproliferation policy on Iran would be
“worse than a crime.” It would be “a mistake.”
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, where he focuses on Iranian political and security issues and
contributes to its Center on Military and Political Power. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
Apply the Lessons From Ukraine in the Taiwan Strait
RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery and Bradley Bowman/Defense News/March 09/2022
With the world’s attention fixed on the national security and humanitarian
catastrophe in Ukraine caused by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked
invasion, a similar disaster is brewing in the Pacific. Taking a page from
Putin’s playbook, the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, is methodically
assembling combat power to coerce or conquer the free people of Taiwan.
Preventing that from happening will require Washington to learn the right
lessons from the disaster in Ukraine. Among them is the need for Washington to
spend less time worrying about provoking authoritarian bullies and more time
working to defend threatened democracies before the invasion starts.
This is especially critical as U.S. forces are much more likely to be directly
involved in a response to coercion against Taiwan. For 25 years, Beijing has
pursued a determined strategy featuring military modernization, technological
advancements, economic infiltration, cyberattacks and persistent disinformation
campaigns. These efforts have focused on building a world-class military,
erasing American military supremacy in the seas and skies around Taiwan, and
preparing for a potential attack designed to establish CCP dominion over Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the United States has been distracted elsewhere, unable to focus its
strategic and fiscal efforts on the rising power in China. This has been
compounded by consistent congressional failures to provide the Pentagon with the
timely, sufficient and predictable funding necessary to modernize U.S. forces
and maintain sufficient readiness and capacity. Indeed, the Department of
Defense has received on-time funding only once in the last 13 fiscal years.
Exacerbating these dynamics, Washington has been slow in addressing serious
concerns and specific requests for resources identified by Indo-Pacific Command
in successive reports to Congress. Just last year, the command again warned that
the military balance of power in the region continues to become “more
unfavorable” for America and its allies.
So, what’s to be done?
Working with its allies and partners, Washington must rapidly restore and
enhance American-led deterrence of Chinese military aggression inside the first
island chain. That means ensuring Taiwan can delay and disrupt any Chinese
effort to impose a fait accompli before U.S. forces can respond. It will also
require U.S. forces to expeditiously arrive in position near the Taiwan Strait
so they can then rapidly attrite Chinese naval and air capability.
That’s easier said than done, but here are nine recommendations that are
essential:
1. Expand the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile capability. Beijing already has the
largest navy in the world and is sprinting to build more vessels. In an attack
on Taiwan, China would focus this massive force on the island. Accordingly, the
United States would need the ability to destroy a large number of Chinese naval
vessels quickly and efficiently. An increased inventory of LRASMs and launch
platforms would be vital to that effort.
Currently, the Navy can launch LRASMs from F-18 fighters (assuming there is an
aircraft carrier in range), and the Air Force can launch them from B-1s (an
aircraft with poor readiness that the Air Force has repeatedly tried to retire).
The Navy needs to expedite configuring its 100-plus P-8 long-range surveillance
aircraft to fire the LRASM, and the Air Force needs to rapidly configure a large
number of its B-52s to fire large loads of LRASMs. Additionally, both services
need to buy LRASMs in significant numbers — 50-75 per year, per service.
(Inexplicably, the Air Force reduced its requested buy to zero in 2022.) When
P-8s armed with LRASM weapons can take off from dozens of airfields throughout
Asia, or when B-52s can launch dozens of missiles from one aircraft, Chinese
defense planners will begin to question anew whether Beijing could conduct a
successful assault against Taiwan.
تيموثي بيلا/واشنطن بوست : بوتين حوّل روسيا إلى أكثر دولة معاقبة في العالم ،
متقزماً في هذا المجال إيران وكوريا الشمالية
Putin turns Russia into the world’s most-sanctioned
country, dwarfing Iran and North Korea
Timothy Bella/The Washington Post/March 09/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106916/timothy-bella-the-washington-post-putin-turns-russia-into-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country-dwarfing-iran-and-north-korea-%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%88%d8%ab%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%84%d8%a7/
It took less than two weeks for Russian President Vladimir Putin to turn his
country into the most-sanctioned nation in the world, dwarfing the high sanction
totals imposed on the likes of Iran, North Korea and Syria, thanks to Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine.
Data from Castellum.ai, a global database that tracks sanctions, shows that
Russia was already the second-most sanctioned country in the world before Feb.
22, with 2,754 sanctions. At the time, Russia trailed only Iran, which has
3,616.
But that changed after Putin ordered Russian forces to enter eastern Ukraine
last month. Since then, Russia has faced 2,778 new sanctions from the United
States and countries around the world — bringing its new total to a whopping
5,532 sanctions.
Now, Russia is No. 1 in a category no country wants to own. Russia’s sanctions
more than doubled the 2,608 sanctions imposed on Syria, and far outpace the
2,077 sanctions placed on North Korea.
The United States leads the way with 1,194 sanctions on Russia, according to
data from Castellum.ai. Switzerland, which has been historically neutral, has
placed 568 sanctions on Russia since Feb. 22, the most of any country or
organization during that time. The European Union, France, Canada, Australia and
the United States have each also issued hundreds of sanctions against Russia in
less than two weeks.
Bloomberg News was the first to report on the findings.
Russia’s ascent to the most-sanctioned country in the world comes as President
Biden announced Tuesday that the United States plans to ban imports of oil and
natural gas from Russia — a move seen as one of Washington’s most far-reaching
actions to penalize Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. In explaining why he was
banning the imports, which carries enormous geopolitical consequences, Biden
said, “Americans have rallied to support the Ukrainian people and have made it
clear we will not be part of subsidizing Putin’s war.”
“Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin,” the president said.
U.S. to ban oil imports from Russia as White House explores drastic plans to
buffer economy from energy shock
The ban has become a reality after a stretch in which Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded with lawmakers in the United States and around
the globe for more action against Russia. Ukraine has again accused Russia of
shelling evacuation routes meant to allow civilians to flee battle zones, after
Russia said its troops would observe a temporary cease-fire to allow safe
passage in several besieged Ukrainian cities.
More than 2 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the start of the
invasion, the United Nations said Tuesday.
In historic crisis, 2 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of
Russian invasion, U.N. says
The United States and countries around the world have imposed historic,
wide-ranging sanctions on Russia in hope of isolating the country and pressuring
Putin to abandon the war. Some of that pressure has been directed toward its
central bank and Russian oligarchs considered Putin allies.
The Russian economy has been crippled by the international community’s actions
to the point that Putin called for the “normalization” of relations with other
states last week, saying Moscow has “absolutely no ill intentions with regard to
our neighbors.”
But after saying there was “no need” to escalate the situation or impose further
sanctions on Russia, Putin on Saturday said that sanctions and pushback from
world leaders in response to the invasion are risking “the future of Ukrainian
statehood.” He claimed that the sanctions leveled by the United States and the
international community amount to “a means of fighting against Russia.”
“These sanctions that are being imposed are like the declaration of war,” he
said.
Putin likens sanctions to a ‘declaration of war,’ says invasion pushback risks
future of Ukrainian statehood
Russia is no stranger to sanctions. In 2014, in response to the Kremlin’s
annexation of Crimea, the United States and Europe sanctioned Russia’s finance,
defense and oil industries. Despite those sanctions, the Russian government
increased its reserves from $430 billion in May 2014 to $640 billion, financed
largely through sales of oil and gas.
When those sanctions were placed on Russia nearly eight years ago, the nation
joined other countries that each had thousands of sanctions imposed on them.
Most of Iran’s sanctions are related to its nuclear program and support of
terrorism, while North Korea has also been repeatedly sanctioned for developing
nuclear weapons.
But as the invasion continues and fighting intensifies, Russia is head and
shoulders above all others as the king of sanctions.
*Alyssa Fowers and Kate Rabinowitz contributed to this report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-most-sanctions-putin-ukraine/
Empty Threats to Ban Russian Oil Will Only Help Putin
Julian Lee/Bloomberg/March 09/2022
The international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is seriously lacking.
There is one glaring question that needs to be answered: Should the US, Europe
and Asia stop buying Russian oil? Choking off Russian oil sales would put
significant pressure on the Russian economy, and perhaps actually encourage
President Vladimir Putin to end this crisis.
Yet the political process in the US, Europe and elsewhere is proving an
impediment when it comes to responding decisively. There are divides in the US
political system about a full ban, just as there are divides in Europe. While
the Biden administration looks set to impose a ban on imports of Russian oil,
gas and coal, Europe is still dragging its feet. That’s no surprise: US imports
are tiny compared with those of Europe, so banning them comes at a much smaller
cost.
As of this writing, Russian oil and gas is still flowing into Europe and ships
carrying Russian crude and refined products are still sailing to the US — at a
vast and rising cost. The proceeds of these sales are funding Russia’s invasion
of its neighbor.
Europe and China account for about 85% of Russia’s overseas crude sales, while
Europe and the US take three-quarters of its refined product exports. Even if
China sits on the sidelines, as seems probable, or steps up its purchases of
Russian oil, a ban by the US and Europe would still have a material impact on
Moscow.A ban may well trigger Russia to retaliate and halt natural gas flows to
Europe. But that may happen anyway. Threats from Moscow to that effect have
already sent European prices to new heights.
Although Russia could conceivably reroute some oil sales to compliant buyers, it
would be virtually impossible to redirect gas flows. Russia’s biggest gas fields
are tied to the European market by a network of pipelines. The only way for
Moscow to diversify its overseas gas markets is to build new pipelines or
liquefaction plants — a long and expensive process. The undeniable truth is
Russian oil sales won’t be materially impeded without a formal ban.
Sure, there will be short-term disruptions to the flow. Oil companies, ship
owners, refiners and traders will shun Russian barrels for a while, imposing
informal sanctions by refusing to buy, carry, unload or process Russian oil.
That self-sanctioning will last for as long as public outrage over the invasion
outweighs public outrage over soaring fuel prices and potential shortages. But
it will be a different picture as time goes by. Do we really expect the
self-sanctioning to persist for several months? Without a serious embargo, I
struggle to believe economic imperative won’t break an informal buyers’ strike.
What we have now is the worst of all worlds: Talk of a ban is driving up oil and
gas prices and risks bringing economies to their knees. Merely threatening a ban
without delivering would — over time — be financially beneficial to Moscow,
pushing up prices while doing little to curtail the volumes it can ship.
So the US, Europe and those Asian buyers who feel similar repugnance for the
invasion need to support Ukraine with the toughest step possible.
The economic costs of banning Russian oil will be huge, I don’t deny that. The
disruption to fuel flows will be immense. Prices will continue to rise, there
will almost inevitably be fuel shortages. We may stray from the path toward
climate goals, at least for a while. And European consumers, in particular, need
to get serious about using less oil and gas. But more can be done to mitigate
the worst effects. The release of 61.7 million barrels of oil from strategic
stockpiles announced by the International Energy Agency is only a start. The
volume to be made available represents just 3% of total emergency reserves, the
IEA says, and it’s clear that more releases will be needed. This, after all, is
why the stockpile was created. So the decision is clear. Risk the economic shock
of curtailing oil imports from Russia, or continue to fund Putin’s invasion of
Ukraine. But don’t drag out the decision.
Why China Won’t Help Russia Around Sanctions
Shuli Ren/Bloomberg/March 09/2022
China is the wild card. President Xi Jinping has vowed that the friendship
between China and Russia has “no limits,” and he certainly has the tools to help
soften the blow of unprecedented sanctions imposed by the US and European Union
on Vladimir Putin’s wartime economy.
Beijing could buy some of Russia’s $130 billion horde of gold held by the
Russian central bank and pay for it in US dollars. It could reactivate a
currency swap line, which was established after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in
2014, and serve as the lender of the last resort. It could also step up trade
with Russia, buying more oil, natural gas, wheat and fertilizers. Even better,
China could buy stakes in Russian energy and commodities companies — although
such deliberations are at an early stage, according to Bloomberg News. Plus,
China has a long history of working around US sanctions. In the past, it has
used small, systemically unimportant banks to do business with Iran.
But provoking leaders of its two dominant markets is the last thing China needs
right now. With its property industry slumping and small businesses suffocating
from a strict zero Covid policy, resilient international sales are perhaps the
economy’s saving grace. China doesn’t want to alienate the US and the European
Union, which together account for about 35% of its exports, especially if it
still aims to reach its ambitious 5.5% growth target. The math won’t work.
Real estate, which represents about a quarter of the economy, has extended its
nosedive into a second year. Last month, home sales of the largest 100
developers slumped 47.2% from a year ago, more than January’s 39.6% decline. New
construction starts were down 33% in December, the latest data available. A 1
percentage point decline in real-estate investment will reduce China’s GDP
growth by 0.13 percentage points, even as policy makers step up counter-cyclical
support, estimates Bloomberg Economics’ David Qu.
As the National People’s Congress convenes this week, Premier Li Keqiang took
pains to lay out in his annual work report the steps the government is taking to
help businesses. This year, tax cuts and rebates, which prioritize small and
medium enterprises and manufacturers, will amount to 2.5 trillion yuan ($400
billion), more than doubling last year’s cuts.
The largesse reflects the government’s own nod that its zero tolerance to Covid
is hurting private enterprises. Retail sales growth was practically flat in
December, while catering services, dominated by small business, fell from a year
ago, according to the latest data. A recent survey of small businesses showed
that average sales were at only 30.6% of the pre-pandemic level, and their cash
pile could run out in less than three months if there was no incoming revenue.
As China confronts its worst outbreak since the early days of the pandemic, the
road to economic recovery remains long and winding.
Meanwhile, China is churning out a record 10.8 million university graduates this
year, and they’ll need jobs. But crackdowns last year on Big Tech and real
estate cut off prized career paths. New job postings in the real estate sector
fell 29% from a year ago, while roughly half of those working for internet
companies said their employers have been laying off staff, according to a survey
by Zhaopin, an online job recruiter. The government is keeping its urban
unemployment target of no more than 5.5% unchanged this year.
What’s left is exports. During the pandemic, China benefited tremendously from
the world’s demand for masks, medical supplies and work-from-home equipment,
such as computers and keyboards. In December, exports soared to a record high of
$340 billion. Would China risk turning off the US and Europe to give Putin a
hand? Granted, Xi’s friendship with Putin may be genuine — they share the world
view that expanding Western influence and the US are their top mutual
antagonists. But putting that view into practice on behalf of an ally who
invaded its neighbor risks undermining Xi’s top priority: stability, a key
phrase emphasized at this week’s Congress meetings.
Starting a war that sends the price of oil soaring above $125 a barrel does not
promote stability. By attacking Ukraine, Russia is piling a potential energy
crisis onto a friend that is still trying to defuse a financial time bomb
started by its ambitious and distressed property builders. No matter how “rock
solid” Beijing claims the relationship to be, China isn’t likely to come to
Putin’s aid.
What Does and Doesn’t Concern Us!
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 09/2022
Some in the Arab world have loudly deplored the concern about the ongoing
Russian Ukrainian war, particularly concern for the Ukrainian people’s
suffering. We Arabs, they argue, have our own tragedies in Palestine, Iraq, and
Yemen (Syria and Lebanon are often disregarded, as accusing America, Israel and
the Gulf countries of being responsible for their suffering is difficult). And
so, with an abundance of melodramatic self-righteousness, they ask, why care
about tragedies that are so far away?
At first glance, we put the divergence in our political assessments about the
war aside. This war, as a global event, concerns us in itself, but it is
particularly relevant to us because it is being fought in Europe. The wars of
1914 and 1939, which also erupted in that continent and were first waged among
its peoples, became the World Wars as we know very well. The pessimistic among
us speak of a “Third World War” that could end up unfolding because of the
conflict in Ukraine, that is, in Europe. As for those who are even more
pessimistic, perhaps wiser and more knowledgeable as well, they have begun
warning us that this could be a nuclear war. Although Asia and China have seized
some of their centrality over the past two decades, Europe is still the center
of the world. As for us, we are more affected by what happens in Europe than
other regions and peoples: the First World War created most of our countries.
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire was closely tied to that war. World War Two
propelled most of our countries’ independence. The Battle of El Alamein, fought
on Egypt’s border with Libya, was among its central and consequential battles.
The founding of Israel itself would not have been possible without the Nazi
Holocaust of European Jews… A list of examples of how the events that transpire
in this continent and its wars affect us would not fit in several volumes.
Though that does not negate, of course, the fact that what happens here also
affects Europe: it suffices to recall the ramifications of the spike in oil
prices in the mid-seventies and the strong link between waves of asylum and
immigration and the reinvigoration of populism in Europe... This is without
mentioning older historical events like the Crusades, conflict over Spain, and
Ottoman-European battles, and before all of those, the role that Arabs and
Muslims played as mediators between ancient Greek culture and Europe.
All of this should go without saying, but that is not how those parochial voices
preaching isolationism see it.
The fact is that this line of thinking is nothing more than the culmination of a
long historical process that saw places around the world coming closer together
and a single, linear (after it had been cyclical) timeline unite it, whereby
human action was given a function that had been exclusive to the change of
seasons and the rotation of the orbit. Thus, through this process, change
replaced stability and the certain became uncertain.
Later, with the scientific revolution and industrial capitalism that united the
world, through conquest of course, but also through railways, water channels,
schools, and the like, came the major shift of seeing the world as a single
universe with a single timeline. Time and space were condensed by trains, cars,
airplanes, televisions, and radios. Indeed, that was before the digital
revolution and economic globalization made their own contributions, from the fax
machine to the internet and submarine cables to satellites. In all of this,
trade played a crucial role, facilitating exchange and shaping our lives,
tastes, and needs...
In contrast to all of this, politics, in the broadest sense of the word,
constituted a theater of conflict hindering the world’s path to unity. This
clash, though it was given more than a small push by unevenness and violence
that this path to unity implied, was exploited by the nationalists and
populists, be it in the West or the East, not only to impede unity with the
other but also to prevent us from knowing more about this other, let alone
sympathize with them when they are hit with tragedies.
The “Europe’s suffering doesn’t concern us” theory faced its biggest test when
it overlooked facts as important as the Holocaust, arguing that we didn’t
perpetuate it and that we, the Arabs, paid the price for it. These are arguments
that could partially explain this disregard, but it does not justify it in any
sense. As for the tests we failed one after the other, they were very many and
share one thing: seeing the world from the lens of “our causes,” which are
“central priorities” sometimes and “our compass” in others. While this narrowed
our view of the world, more dangerously, it contributed to our causes’ defeats
and let-downs. That is because “their suffering doesn’t concern us” is actually
a declaration of complicity with those causing the suffering, Fascists one time,
Communist Soviet another, and Putin’s Russia today. They did not win in the
past, and they won’t win in the future, for many reasons, among them is that the
world doesn’t concern them. This brings us to our apathy as a prelude for
sharing in the defeats of the vanquished after having turned our back to the
world with them.
Ukraine Crisis: The Next Biden Defeat?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/March 09/2022
The only credible military force in Europe is the US army, and the essential
decisions for the defense of Europe are taken in Washington, DC.
Cyberattacks from Russia affected hundreds of American companies during 2021,
but elicited virtually no reaction from the Biden administration apart from more
concessions to Russia, such as the extension of the New START treaty, for which
the US got nothing, and the exorbitant gift to Putin of the Nord Stream 2
pipeline to Germany and Europe.
Since Biden enacted restrictions on US domestic oil and gas exploration,
production, refinement and transport, the increased prices of oil and gas have
been hugely increasing Russia's revenues.
May 19, 2021, four months after terminating the Keystone XL pipeline, Biden
lifted the sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, thereby presenting
Putin with yet another huge gift...
Reports now detail that the Biden administration is on the verge of signing what
commentators have called a "surrender pact" -- negotiated for the US by the same
Russia that is currently threatening America with nuclear war. The new deal will
reportedly not only enable Iran to have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles
to deliver them, but also, by "laundering" Russian oil and gas, to bypass
whatever economic sanctions the US might impose on it. The deal would also
reportedly take Iran off the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and have
Iran sell its oil to the US.
The humiliating debacle that the Biden administration unleashed on the United
States in Afghanistan showed all enemies of the West the incompetence of the
administration and its ability to inflict strategic and geopolitical disaster on
the US.
"I need ammunition, not a ride." — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,
February 26, 2022.
Biden, after enacting restrictions on American domestic oil and gas exploration,
production, refinement and transport, is now trying to claim it is "simply not
true" that he is holding back US energy... US sanctions have not affected
Russia's energy production, nor encouraged the Biden administration to increase
production of cleaner and cheaper energy in America. Instead, the administration
is exploring purchasing oil at spiking prices from the hostile dictatorship in
Venezuela -- rather than providing jobs and affordable energy at home.
Biden could have decided on a fuel embargo against Russia; oil and gas are
Russia's main sources of revenue. Instead, he is sanctioning the American energy
sector. Reinstating the Keystone XL pipeline permit could quickly allow the
United States to replace Russian oil with increased imports from Canada.
What everyone can see is that the great power status of the United States,
already badly damaged by the Biden administration over the past 14 months, has
been damaged even more. The US has not deterred Russia from acting in Ukraine,
and has not even slowed down or interrupted Russia's aggression. There was no
"resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response." There has not even been
a resolute and massive American response.
The result of so much US risk-aversion could well lead to further attacks
against other countries by Russia, China and Iran.
"[D]eterrence was lost with Biden's weakness... Only strength deters war;
weakness begets it. President Xi Jinping, Chairman Kim, the Ayatollah – they and
others like them are watching..." — Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,
January 24, 2022.
"We prepared extensively and carefully," Biden said in his State of the Union
address on March 1. Could the result have been worse if his administration had
not prepared at all?
Since President Biden enacted restrictions on US domestic oil and gas
exploration, production, refinement and transport, the increased prices of oil
and gas have been hugely increasing Russia's revenues. Now the administration is
exploring purchasing oil at spiking prices from the hostile dictatorship in
Venezuela -- rather than providing jobs and affordable energy at home. (Image
source: iStock)
November 13, 2021. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that Russia has
sent troops to Ukraine's border and that there are now nearly 100,000 Russian
soldiers there. Three weeks later, on December 7, US President Joe Biden calls
Russian President Vladimir Putin. The transcript of the conversation has not
been made public, but National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described Biden's
remarks:
"He reiterated America's support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial
integrity. He told President Putin directly that if Russia further invades
Ukraine, the United States and our European allies would respond with strong
economic measures." [Emphasis added]
Cyberattacks from Russia affected hundreds of American companies during 2021,
but elicited virtually no reaction from the Biden administration apart from more
concessions to Russia, such as the extension of the New START treaty, for which
the US got nothing, and the exorbitant gift to Putin of the Nord Stream 2
pipeline to Germany and Europe. The pipeline not only bypasses Ukraine, but also
would enable Putin to blackmail the entire continent by closing the pipeline in
winter.
On January 20, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken "said the U.S. has been
'very clear throughout' that if any Russian military forces move across the
Ukrainian border 'that they will be met with a swift, severe united response
from the U.S, and our allies and partners.'"
On February 12, Blinken "reiterated that should Moscow pursue the path of
aggression and further invade Ukraine, it would result in a resolute, massive,
and united Transatlantic response."
Yuri Ushakov, a Russian senior foreign policy adviser, announced on February 12,
that no Russian attack would occur: "Hysteria has reached its peak."
Zelensky said:
"We understand all the risks. We understand that the risks are there... Right
now, the people's biggest enemy is panic in our country. And all this
information is only provoking panic and not helping us.... If you or anyone has
any additional information about a 100-percent chance of an invasion, give it to
us."
"We should give the diplomacy every chance to succeed. I believe there are real
ways to address our respective security concerns," President Biden said on
February 15.
On February 17, at the United Nations, Blinken said, "I am here today not to
start a war but to prevent one".
"No one expected the sanctions to prevent anything from happening," Biden said
on February 24, after Putin launched his attack
Several American strategic analysts, expressing doubts about Putin's appetite
for aggression, said that an invasion would cost Russia far too much financially
and in human lives. Some commentators added that perhaps Putin could carry out a
limited intervention in the Russian-speaking region of Donbas -- a view also
regrettably proposed by Biden, who implied that a "minor incursion" might be
just the thing.
Putin, who has never hidden that he considers Ukraine an integral part of a
Greater Russia, had clearly stated what he wants. On December 17, 2021, he sent
two draft agreements to the Biden administration for ratification. They asked
that neither Ukraine nor any other country resulting from the break-up of the
Soviet Union become a member of NATO, and that the United States and its allies
would never deploy offensive weapons in NATO member countries that shared a
common border with Russia.
Putin put Russia, no longer a superpower, back at the center of international
attention. European politicians rushed to Moscow. The Biden administration
issued declarations that remained declarations.
In late December 2021, the Biden administration granted $200 million in security
assistance to Ukraine and sent defensive weapons to the Ukrainian army – as well
as deploying additional American troops to Poland, Germany and Romania. "The
White House" had quickly pointed out, however, what could only have been
perceived by Putin as yet another exorbitant gift: that as Ukraine is not a
member of NATO, "the president will not be putting the lives of our men and
women in uniform at risk by sending them into a war zone."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, after saying on January 12 that "We are
not ready to compromise on core principles: the right for every nation to choose
their own path," announced on February 7: "[O]ur main goal is to find a
political solution."
Putin had exposed the weakness of NATO.
Western European NATO countries had, for years, been spending too little on
their own defense, and none has a credible army -- as the international
community, after two German-propelled world wars, had thought prudent. Central
European countries, although far less wealthy than Western European countries,
spend far more as a proportion of their budget on defense. The only credible
military force in Europe is the US army, and the essential decisions for the
defense of Europe are taken in Washington, DC.
While several members of NATO sent arms and equipment to Ukraine, Europe's main
economic power, Germany, at that time, sent Ukraine medical aid, not even
ammunition. For decades, cocooned in self-interest and totally dependent on the
Russian gas, under the leadership of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany
had insisted on building Russia's Nord-Stream 2 gas pipeline, despite potential
Russian threats.
The visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Moscow on February 6, to seek a
"de-escalation," allowed Putin to humiliate his visitor. Macron, facing an
election, and icily received, later hinted at concessions he might have gotten
from Putin. When Macron expounded that he had actually offered Putin a virtual
veto over NATO expansion, Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, immediately
announced that Russia had made no concessions whatever. Macron's ideas, Putin
suggested, could "make the basis of our further joint steps."
Putin apparently saw that the "resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic
response" announced by Blinken would actually be just economic measures, as
promised, and could be as damaging to Europe and the United States as to Russia.
Cutting Russian oil and gas exports to the Western world would raise fuel
prices, which have already risen sharply in the last year. Since Biden enacted
restrictions on US domestic oil and gas exploration, production, refinement and
transport, the increased prices of oil and gas have been hugely increasing
Russia's revenues.
Putin also apparently saw that economic sanctions would create extreme
difficulties and probably fuel shortages in most European countries, which
depend on Russian gas, which represents 40% percent of consumption in Europe and
55% in Germany.
Above all, Putin saw that the Biden administration's foreign policy decisions
all along have been characterized by extreme weakness and unpreparedness (eg:
here, this one, here, and here).
The Biden administration's foreign policy team defines China not as a strategic
enemy but as a competitor. Biden has never held China accountable for closing
sending people around the word to infect others at the beginning of Covid 19.
The global death toll has just surpassed an estimated 6 million.
On May 25, 2021, the Biden administration shut down an inquiry into the origins
of Covid 19. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, as Chinese warplanes were
flying into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone, told the Wall Street
Journal:
"It's just an economic fact that the United States must trade with China... I
actually think robust commercial engagement will help to mitigate any potential
tensions."
On November 10, 2021, when a journalist from The New York Times asked Blinken if
the United States was ready to defend Taiwan, he answered that "we will make
sure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself".
The day before Biden's inauguration, Blinken had said that the Biden
administration would reenter the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and negotiate with the
mullahs' regime to "seek a longer and stronger agreement". Reports now detail
that the Biden administration is on the verge of signing what commentators have
called a "surrender pact" -- negotiated for the US by the same Russia that is
currently threatening America with nuclear war. The new deal will reportedly not
only enable Iran to have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them,
but also, by "laundering" Russian oil and gas, to bypass whatever economic
sanctions the US might impose on it. The deal would also reportedly take Iran
off the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and have Iran sell its oil to
the US.
May 19, 2021, four months after terminating the Keystone XL pipeline, Biden
lifted the sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, thereby presenting
Putin with yet another huge gift, sealing the dependence of Germany and Europe
on Russian gas, and depriving the Ukrainian government of future revenues from
natural gas pipelines crossing through its territory.
The humiliating debacle that the Biden administration unleashed on the United
States in Afghanistan showed all enemies of the West the incompetence of the
administration and its ability to inflict strategic and geopolitical disaster on
the US.
Putin evidently determined that the situation was ripe to launch an attack; on
February 24, he did just that. The speech he gave at the time signaled that he
wanted a quick win and he was sure he would get it. Events, however, did not
cooperate. The Ukrainian army did not surrender. The Ukrainian people took up
arms and fought. Zelensky refused to flee. "I need ammunition, not a ride," he
said. The Russian military began suffering significant losses and serious
logistical problems as armored vehicles were abandoned for lack of fuel. After
two weeks of war, Kiev, Ukraine's capital, has still not fallen.
Europe began making decisions it otherwise would never have made. German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after decades, decided to raise defense spending above
2% of GDP and agreed to not open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which immediately
filed for bankruptcy. To hobble the Russian economy, Europe excluded several
Russian banks and the Russian Central Bank from the international SWIFT network
-- while omitting the energy sector from sanctions -- and began delivering
weapons to Ukraine.
The Biden administration could show a shred of determination. That does not yet
seem to be happening. Biden, after enacting restrictions on American domestic
oil and gas exploration, production, refinement and transport, is now trying to
claim it is "simply not true" that he is holding back US energy. Although he had
announced sanctions against Russia on February 22, two days before the attack,
he immediately added, "We have no intention of fighting Russia." US sanctions
have not affected Russia's energy production, nor encouraged the Biden
administration to increase production of cleaner and cheaper energy in America.
Instead, the administration is exploring purchasing oil at spiking prices from
the hostile dictatorship in Venezuela -- rather than providing jobs and
affordable energy at home.
Biden could have decided on a fuel embargo against Russia; oil and gas are
Russia's main sources of revenue. Instead, he is sanctioning the American energy
sector. Reinstating the Keystone XL pipeline permit could quickly allow the
United States to replace Russian oil with increased imports from Canada.
The courage shown by Western European countries may not last. Appeasing
adversaries has been part of Western Europe's DNA for decades. NATO has long
been an alliance where only the United States and five or six other countries
honor their commitments. Western Europeans generally preferred a weak American
president, such as Biden, who asked nothing of them, to a strong president who
asked them to meet their commitments.
Putin likely sees that his status as a strongman is at stake. He cannot afford
to lose, whatever the cost. He will almost certainly use harsher and bloodier
means, as in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria. In Ukraine, Putin has reportedly
already used cluster and thermobaric bombs (also called vacuum bombs), outlawed
by the Geneva Convention. Russia's military doctrine does not prohibit the use
of tactical nuclear weapons during a war.
What everyone can see is that the great power status of the United States,
already badly damaged by the Biden administration over the past 14 months, has
been damaged even more. The US has not deterred Russia from acting in Ukraine,
and has not even slowed down or interrupted Russia's aggression. There was no
"resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response." There has not even been
a resolute and massive American response.
The result of so much US risk-aversion could well lead to further attacks
against other countries by Russia, China and Iran.
Foreign policy expert James Jay Carafano wrote that Putin's ultimate objectives
go beyond Ukraine. They are "to reabsorb the former Soviet States and establish
dictatorial influence over Central Europe". If he wins in Ukraine, Putin will
not abandon his objectives.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently explained:
"[D]eterrence was lost with Biden's weakness... Only strength deters war;
weakness begets it. President Xi Jinping, Chairman Kim, the Ayatollah – they and
others like them are watching..."
On February 4 at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, called by many
the "Genocide Games", China and Russia published a joint statement "on the
International Relations", criticizing "certain States' attempts to impose their
own 'democratic standards' on other countries," and added:
"Taiwan is an inalienable part of China... Russia and China stand against
attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common
adjacent regions."
Those who imagine that Russia has become a global pariah may be too quick to
ignore Russia's ties to Communist Chinese power.
President Donald Trump commented on February 27:
"Joe Biden has turned calm into chaos, competence into incompetence, stability
into anarchy and security into catastrophe. The Russian attack on Ukraine is
appalling, it's an outrage and an atrocity that should never have been allowed
to occur."
"We prepared extensively and carefully," Biden said in his State of the Union
address on March 1. Could the result have been worse if his administration had
not prepared at all?
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27
books on France and Europe.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
د. ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون إدارة بايدن تسترضي الملالي
وإيران تصعد الاغتيالات
Biden Administration Appeases Mullahs, Iran Escalates Assassinations
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/March 08/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106914/dr-majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-biden-administration-appeases-mullahs-iran-escalates-assassinations-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%b9/
[A]t least two men from Iran’s Quds Force… are planning to assassinate former US
National Security Advisor John R. Bolton…. However, Biden administration
officials do not want to indict the Iranian assassins, for fear of disrupting
the “progress” in Vienna, Austria, of a globally catastrophic “nuclear deal,”
during which the interests of the United States are being negotiated by –
Russia!
Similar assassination plots, according to the report, also exist against former
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other officials serving the United States now
or who have served.reign political leaders and diplomats whom the regime
opposes. The Iranian regime is known to have “target packages” which most likely
include foreign citizens or residents who are human rights defenders, critics of
the Iranian leaders, political activists, and dissidents.
The Biden administration and the EU, instead of rewarding Iran’s terrorist
regime with billions of dollars, international legitimacy and a full-blown
nuclear weapons program to unleash on the world, should hold the regime
accountable for its countless terror activities and nuclear and missile
programs, by resuming “maximum pressure” sanctions…
Most importantly, the EU needs to officially designate Iran’s Revolutionary
Guard Corps and its proxies as terrorist organizations.
The more the Biden administration appeases Iran’s regime, lifts sanctions
against it, and funds and empowers its brutal expansionism, the more the ruling
mullahs will be empowered to carry out savagery at home and assassinations,
terrorism and marauding abroad.
At least two men from Iran’s Quds Force are reportedly planning to assassinate
former US National Security Advisor John R. Bolton. However, Biden
administration officials do not want to indict the Iranian assassins, for fear
of disrupting the “progress” in Vienna, Austria, of a globally catastrophic
“nuclear deal.” Pictured: Major-General Hossein Salami, chief of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), of which the Quds Force is a branch.
The ruling mullahs are carrying out assassination plots abroad with impunity.
All the while, not only is the Biden administration suppressing the information
and refusing to indict the assassins, but it also keeps appeasing the mullahs by
lifting sanctions.
Yesterday Tom Rogan reported in the Washington Examiner that at least two men
from Iran’s Quds Force, one of the five branches of Iran’s notorious Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are planning to assassinate former US National
Security Advisor John R. Bolton. The plot is “believed to be rooted in Iran’s
desire to avenge” the take-down of General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the
Quds Force, who was killed in a 2020 US drone strike.
However, Biden administration officials do not want to indict the Iranian
assassins, for fear of disrupting the “progress” in Vienna, Austria, of a
globally catastrophic “nuclear deal,” during which the interests of the United
States are being negotiated by – Russia! Similar assassination plots, according
to the report, also exist against former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and
other officials serving the United States now or who have served.
The new deal — which, like the original 2015 “JCPOA” deal, would presumably not
be presented for approval by the Congress — would, according to the journalist
Caroline Glick (citing Gabriel Noronha, a former Iran specialist at the State
Department) delist Iran’s IRGC from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
In addition:
“… Noronha’s colleagues said Malley has agreed to sanctions relief that will
provide Iran with an immediate cash infusion of $90 billion, as well as an
additional $50-55 billion annually in oil and gas profits.
“On the nuclear front, beyond a few formalities, Biden’s deal will enable Iran
to move full-speed ahead with its development of advanced centrifuges and
continue its race to the nuclear finish line. All limitations—which are largely
unenforceable—will be removed in two and a half years. And Iran’s nuclear
program, which constitutes a material breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty of which Iran is a signatory, will be legitimated by the UN and the U.S.
government.”
Also recently, Israel’s intelligence services foiled an assassination attempt
against Israeli businessman Yair Geller in Turkey. The Iranian cell, consisting
of nine individuals, was reportedly run by Yassin Tahermkandi, age 53, an
Iranian-based intelligence officer, and Saleh Mushtag Bhighus, his Turkish
counterpart.
While the Iranian regime attempted to murder a citizen of Israel, an American
ally, not a word of condemnation was issued by the Biden administration.
Moreover, this was not the first time that the Iranian regime has attempted to
carry out assassinations in Turkey, an ally of Iran’s ruling mullahs. Turkey, in
fact, appears to have has become an important hub for the Iranian regime from
which to target foreign citizens or dissidents.
Last year, for instance, the Turkish authorities detained Mohammed Reza
Naderzadeh, an employee at the Iranian Consulate in Istanbul, for his role in
murdering a critic of Iran, Massoud Molavi Vardanjani, in November 2019.
Naderzadeh allegedly forged travel documents for Ali Esfandiari, who
orchestrated the assassination. The Iranian regime then targeted Vardanjani due
to his social media campaign, which was aimed at exposing corruption in the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its Quds Force branch, Iran’s theocratic
establishment. He defected after serving as an intelligence officer for the
Iranian government and he wrote on social media: “I will root out the corrupt
mafia commanders… Pray that they don’t kill me before I do this.”
Additionally, a British television executive, Saeed Karimian, who was the
founder of Gem TV, which runs 17 Persian-language TV channels, was shot dead in
Istanbul in 2017. Before his murder, he had been convicted in absentia in Iran
allegedly for spreading propaganda against the regime.
These kinds of assassination orders likely come from the very top of the
theocratic establishment in Iran. As a “senior administration official” pointed
out:
“Given Iran’s history of targeted assassinations of Iranian dissidents and the
methods used in Turkey, the United States government believes that Iran’s
Ministry of Intelligence and Security was directly involved in Vardanjani’s
killing.”
Turkey’s close relationship with Iran has emboldened and empowered the Iranian
regime reportedly to plot assassinations on the Turkish soil.
Iran’s theocratic regime also targets foreign political leaders and diplomats
whom the regime opposes. The Iranian regime is known to have “target packages”
which most likely include foreign citizens or residents who are human rights
defenders, critics of the Iranian leaders, political activists, and dissidents.
Some of the regime’s targets are also politicians or diplomats from those
countries that Iran views as rivals, such as the US and Saudi Arabia. For
instance, in a well-known case, two Iranian nationals were convicted of plotting
to assassinate Adel Al-Jubeir, now Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign
Affairs, at a restaurant in Washington, DC in 2011, when he was the Saudi
ambassador to the United States.
The Iranian regime’s assassination and terror plots can also be found in Europe.
Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi was sentenced to 20 years in jail in Belgium
over his role in a 2018 terrorist plot. Assadi had delivered 500 grams of the
powerful explosive triacetone triperoxide (TATP) to his accomplices, with the
aim of bombing an Iranian opposition rally in Paris. Had the plot not been
discovered at the last minute, the bombing could have left hundreds dead,
including international dignitaries and many European parliamentarians. Another
Iranian agent, Mohammed Davoudzadeh Loloei, was sentenced to prison by a Danish
court for being an accessory to the attempted murder of one or more opponents of
the Iranian regime.
The Biden administration and the EU, instead of rewarding Iran’s terrorist
regime with billions of dollars, international legitimacy and a full-blown
nuclear weapons program to unleash on the world, should hold the regime
accountable for its countless terror activities and nuclear and missile
programs, by resuming “maximum pressure” sanctions until Iran changes the way it
treats its own people as well as its neighbors. As has been asked: Why should a
country that does not treat its own people well treat another country any
better?
Western governments need to adopt a firm policy and even legislation to expel
Iranian “diplomats” and intelligence agents, some of whom who might even be
plotting further terrorist attacks and assassinations. Most importantly, the EU
needs to officially designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies
as terrorist organizations.
The more the Biden administration appeases Iran’s regime, lifts sanctions
against it, and funds and empowers its brutal expansionism, the more the ruling
mullahs will be empowered to carry out savagery at home (eg: here, here and
here) and assassinations, terrorism and marauding abroad.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Nobel Committee Should Give Zelensky the Peace Price
Now
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./March 09/2022
The prize is awarded only to living recipients. The question is, will Zelensky
be alive in the fall? He himself has acknowledge that he is Russian's "number
one target," and we know from tragic experience how Putin deals with his
targets. They are poisoned, thrown out of windows and killed in other brutal and
sometimes subtle ways.
Accordingly, the Nobel Committee should break with tradition, meet now and award
Zelensky the prize.
This may not save his life, or the lives of heroic people of Ukraine, but it may
make it just a little bit harder for Putin to incur the wrath of the entire
world by murdering the holder of the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Committee likes to say that its nomination is designed not only to award
past actions, but also to influence the present and the future of peacemaking
activities. No award could meet those criteria as effectively as the Peace Prize
for Zelensky.
To be sure there have been other massacres and even genocides, but the invasion
of an entirely peaceful nation cannot go unrecognized by a committee whose
agenda includes rewarding the past and influencing the future.
So, the question is not whether Zelensky deserves the Prize. He does. The only
question is when he should get it.
As the great Rabbi Hillel once said: "If not now, when?"
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in the fall to a living person who has fought
for peace. If Volodymyr Zelensky lives until then, he will certainly be the
prime candidate for that important recognition. The specific criteria listed in
Alfred Nobel's will are limited to advancing "fellowship among nations", helping
to reduce "standing armies" and promoting "peace conferences." But the Committee
has broadened them to include protection of the environment, promotion of free
speech and other activities that oppose war. Zelensky would seem to meet these
broadened criteria.
The prize is awarded only to living recipients. The question is, will Zelensky
be alive in the fall? He himself has acknowledge that he is Russian's "number
one target," and we know from tragic experience how Putin deals with his
targets. They are poisoned, thrown out of windows and killed in other brutal and
sometimes subtle ways. Accordingly, the Nobel Committee should break with
tradition, meet now and award Zelensky the prize. This may not save his life, or
the lives of heroic people of Ukraine, but it may make it just a little bit
harder for Putin to incur the wrath of the entire world by murdering the holder
of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Over the years, the Peace Prize has been awarded to the best of people,
including Elie Wiesel, and to the worst of people, including Yasser Arafat. The
Committee likes to say that its nomination is designed not only to award past
actions, but also to influence the present and the future of peacemaking
activities. No award could meet those criteria as effectively as the Peace Prize
for Zelensky.
In war and in peace, timing is everything, and this is the time for the Nobel
Committee to make its contribution to peace in Ukraine. It may have no influence
on the massacres that are occurring. Putin seems oblivious to international
condemnation. But there is no harm in trying. Even if awarding Zelensky the
Nobel Peace Prize fails to influence Putin's conduct, it will send a powerful
message to a largely, but not completely, unified world.
The Nobel Peace Prize is not awarded by the United States, or by the European
Union, or by NATO. It is a universal prize that has been awarded to people from
the most disparate of nations and the most diverse political views. It would be
difficult even for Putin to distort the award into an attack by the West, by
imperialists, by capitalists, or by -- to use his malaprop -- Nazis. It would
show him and his people how united so much of the world is against his
increasing brutality.
In March of 2014, Putin himself was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Hitler
had been proposed in the 1930s. And other villains have been on long and short
lists in the hope that their inclusion might influence their behavior. That has
not worked. Neither did the selection of Yasser Arafat change his terrorist
mindset or actions. What Putin is doing is pure evil with no justification. What
Zelensky is doing and saying is pure good with every reason to encourage such
actions by others. It is rare, at least since the end of the Second World War,
to experience such a clash between evil and good. To be sure, there have been
other massacres and even genocides, but the invasion of an entirely peaceful
nation cannot go unrecognized by a committee whose agenda includes rewarding the
past and influencing the future.
If the Peace Prize awaits the usual schedule in the fall, Zelensky may not be
alive to accept it. In that tragic case, it could be given to the Ukrainian
people for the massive and costly resistance they are putting up to Russian
aggression. An award that recognizes this collective heroism might well
encourage even greater resistance by other nations threatened by naked
aggression.
But a living, resisting Zelensky, accepting the world's most prestigious prize
on behalf of his people, would do more to discourage aggression against the
innocent than some kind of memorial award to a martyred hero.
So, the question is not whether Zelensky deserves the Prize. He does. The only
question is when he should get it. And since the Nobel Committee does not award
prizes posthumously, the answer seems clear. Accordingly, as an emeritus
professor of public law who is eligible to make nominations, I will be
nominating Zelensky for this year's Nobel Peace Prize and urging the Committee
to award it now. As the great Rabbi Hillel once said: "If not now, when?"
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of The Case for Color-Blind
Equality in an Age of Identity Politics. He is the Jack Roth Charitable
Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow,"
on Rumble.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
As Kyiv burns, a new world order emerges
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 09/2022
If only all humanitarian crises inspired such global unity and resolve! In a few
short days we have been living through the traumatic birth pains of an entirely
new geopolitical order, with profound and unpredictable reverberations for
decades to come.
As cities burn and populations are uprooted, the deep ideological divisions and
strategic impotence that have wracked the Western world for years have
superficially vanished, as if by magic. This was manifested at the UN General
Assembly, where 141 member nations from Europe to the GCC to the Pacific took a
unified position on Ukraine, leaving a handful of rogue states — Syria, North
Korea and Belarus — on the opposite side. Even close Kremlin allies such as Iran
and China could only bring themselves to abstain.
The transformation was most profound in states that have long flirted with
Moscow. Germany’s abandonment of its long-standing military neutrality and
economic alignment with Russia has far-reaching implications, while near
neighbors Finland and Sweden are clamoring for NATO membership. After irritating
the West with his purchases of Russian defense systems, President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan suddenly remembered Turkey was also a NATO member, upping sales of
drones and other weaponry to Kyiv and restricting Russian shipping’s access to
the Black Sea.
Meanwhile, Europe’s foremost demagogue, Viktor Orban, is being ridiculed by the
opposition as “Putin’s lapdog” immediately before Hungarian elections. Eastern
European states that beat, tortured and blockaded Syrian refugees have opened
their doors to over a million Ukrainians. Beijing anxiously watches
developments, knowing the outcomes will affect its own abilities to menace its
neighbors and crush citizens’ freedoms.
The ramifications of these events will affect the Middle East equally
profoundly. One short-term risk is that America and others appear to be rushing
toward a quick-fix nuclear deal with Iran, allowing them to focus on Russia.
Tehran is exploiting that to seek further concessions, while a panicky Moscow
appears to be trying to thwart such an outcome with its own new demands.
Flooding the market with Iranian oil to compensate for blocked Russian output is
not a viable solution, because Tehran is an equally grave threat to global
security.
These negative potential outcomes offer Arab oil producers the opportunity to
call the shots to ensure that their security interests are protected. With
Russia bombing nuclear power stations, Arab states and Israel may discover that
they have an increasingly sympathetic global audience when they highlight the
apocalyptic risks of tolerating Iranian nuclearization, its immense ballistic
missile program, and the proliferation of Iran-backed militias from Baghdad to
the Mediterranean Sea.
Libya and Syria suffered wars of extermination by mercenaries from Moscow,
Ankara, Tehran and elsewhere, long after Western interest in these conflicts had
dissipated. The sovereignty of Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq has been shredded by
years of naked Iranian aggression. Gulf states have been under constant assault
from barrages of Iranian missiles and drones. This will worsen if Iran emerges
from a deal with billions of dollars of unfrozen funds to invest in regionwide
terrorism.
Although in recent days Russian air raids in Syria have decreased, there are
concerns that if the Kremlin gets a bloody nose in Kyiv, it may exploit its
mercenaries in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere to up the pressure on
states perceived as acting against it, particularly as the Middle East has been
the arena for proxy conflicts since time immemorial. Indeed, there is evidence
that the Kremlin views Syria’s current fragmented reality as a model for a
future divided and submissive Ukrainian puppet entity.
So catastrophic is the situation that some are hailing Naftali Bennett as the
world’s best hope for a sane outcome, given Israel’s uniquely close ties with
both sides. However, Putin appears hellbent on not listening to any voices of
reason.
Infinitely worse is yet to come for Ukraine: After humiliating setbacks, Moscow
is inflicting indiscriminate levels of destruction last seen in Syria, hoping to
starve and crush courageous citizens into submission. International tensions are
hence set to further soar, while tensions within Russia will escalate as
citizens see living standards plunge for a war they are scarcely allowed to
mention. As the Russian economy bleeds to death, irreversible defeat is etched
on the grim faces of Putin’s generals. The Kremlin can pound cities to dust, but
the Ukrainian nation is forever outside its grasp. On International Women’s Day
we watch girls and mothers fleeing into exile, while grandmothers grimly
manufacture Molotov cocktails in freezing bomb shelters. Ashen-faced youths are
given a rifle and taught how to bandage themselves after a limb is blown off.
Like millions of others, my heart bleeds after having lived through such horrors
when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 — losing everything, embracing loved-ones we
may never see again, knowing our lives are transformed for ever.
Ukrainian dignity and courage in the face of unimaginable evil humble us all,
while reawakening the world’s long-slumbering conscience and sense of justice.
The Middle East has long been mired in this evil, amid genocide, sectarian
cleansing and wars of annexation. Assad, Israel, Iran, Erdogan, Hezbollah, the
Houthis and Al-Hashd al-Shaabi must discover that the civilized world will stand
with human rights and justice, irrespective of ethnicity or faith. Raw might is
never right. Evil is self-destructive and unsustainable. Injustice must never be
allowed to prevail.
Ukraine’s dignity and courage humble us all, while reawakening the world’s
long-slumbering conscience and sense of justice.
It has taken a few short days for Europe to reawaken and shake off three decades
of strategic complacency. The Western world is no more immune from the
implacable, brutal march of history than anywhere else.
The world is relearning that sovereignty, freedom, territorial integrity and
international law aren’t natural attributes that spontaneously prevail, but are
fundamental principles that must be fought for, and that millions of
peace-loving citizens are willing to die to protect.
Irrespective of how this crisis ends, history will remember the brave struggle
of the Ukrainian people against colossal odds. It will also recall whether the
rest of the civilized world reasserts the primacy of international law and
national sovereignty, to ensure that aggressor states cannot menace peace-loving
nations, throughout Eurasia, the Arab world and everywhere else.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.