English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 03/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
 To love God with all the heart & with all the understanding, and with all the strength & to love one’s neighbour as oneself is much more important than all whole burnt-offerings and sacrifices
Mark 12/28-34: “One of the scribes came near and heard them disputing with one another, and seeing that he answered them well, he asked him, ‘Which commandment is the first of all?’Jesus answered, ‘The first is, “Hear, O Israel: the Lord our God, the Lord is one; you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your mind, and with all your strength.”The second is this, “You shall love your neighbour as yourself.” There is no other commandment greater than these.’Then the scribe said to him, ‘You are right, Teacher; you have truly said that “he is one, and besides him there is no other”;and “to love God with all the heart, and with all the understanding, and with all the strength”, and “to love one’s neighbour as oneself”, this is much more important than all whole burnt-offerings and sacrifices.’When Jesus saw that he answered wisely, he said to him, ‘You are not far from the kingdom of God.’ After that no one dared to ask him any question.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 02-03/2022
Congratulations to the people who chose to exercise the luxury of democracy under the yoke of occupation and weaponry terrorism/Etienne Sakr – Abu Arz/June 02/2022
Lebanon: Parliament’s Opposition Figures Fear Return of Shiite Duo-Aoun Majority
Associations protest outside BDL, urge governor to free their money
Skaff visits Berri, urges for 'political' government 'where majority rules'
British Ambassador Collard visits UNIFIL and tours the Blue Line
World Bank extends CPF period, says Lebanon has lost precious time
2022 Kavli Prize Honors Lebanese Scientist Huda Zoghbi
British Ambassador in Lebanon urges swift govt. formation, urgent reforms
Geagea refuses any PM backed by Hizbullah
Who will be Lebanon's next PM?
The Politics of Musical Chairs and Shiite Fascism Gambits/Charles Elias Chartouni/June 02/2022
Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections: A Fragile Step in the Right Direction

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 02-03/2022
Putin clings to semblance of normality as his war grinds on
War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Israeli Army Simulates Attacks On Iranian Nuclear Facilities
TankerTrackers.com Locates Seized Greek Tankers in Iranian Waters
FBI: Iran-backed Hackers Targeted Boston Children's Hospital
Western Powers Urge IAEA to Rebuke Iran at Meeting Next Week
Syrian Democratic Forces Warn Against New Turkish Attack
Iraq Braces for Power Shortages as Iran Cuts Gas Supplies
US Senators Introduce Legislation Calling Out Iran-China Ties
FBI: Iran-backed Hackers Targeted Boston Children's Hospital
US, Israeli Officials Coordinate to Prevent Iran from Getting Nuclear Weapons
Gulf States Underline Unified Stance on Russian-Ukrainian Crisis
Blinken Promises Abbas that Demands Will Be Discussed during Biden’s Regional Tour

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 02-03/2022
Turkey is blackmailing NATO to justify its invasion of Syria - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 02/2022
The War in Ukraine and the Western Balkans ...Lessons Learned and Recommendations/Ivana Stradner/Atlantic Council of Montenegro/June 02/2022
Turkey, Terrorists and NATO/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/June 02/2022
Justice… A Firebird/Hussam Itani/Asharq Al-Awsat/June/2022
How Worried Should You Be About Monkeypox?/Spencer Bokat-Lindell/Asharq Al-Awsat/June/2022
Congressional approval vital if new Iran deal is to succeed/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 02/ 2022
Iranian regime should listen to its people for once/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 02/ 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 02-03/2022
Congratulations to the people who chose to exercise the luxury of democracy under the yoke of occupation and weaponry terrorism
Etienne Sakr – Abu Arz/June 02/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109093/%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b5%d9%82%d8%b1-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d9%87%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a6%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8d-%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%a3%d9%89-%d9%85/
By the end, The mountain gave birth to a dinosaur, which has been residing in a forest called Al-Najma Square for three decades, surrounded by a choir of monkeys and monkeys that watched over it . It safeguarded and ensured its comfort, subsisted from the leftovers of its tables, and helped its skin to feed it. Congratulations to the people who chose to practice the luxury of democracy under the yoke of occupation and weaponry terrorism, and decided to live lost in a forest ruled by a dinosaur that leads it to slaughterhouses.
Lbeik Lebanon...Abu Arz

Lebanon: Parliament’s Opposition Figures Fear Return of Shiite Duo-Aoun Majority
Beirut –Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
Lebanon’s opposition deputies have expressed fears of a “new deal” between the Shiite duo - represented by Amal and Hezbollah - and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which would grant them the necessary majority to tailor the future government and elect a new president of the republic in October. Those fears are actually based on Tuesday’s parliamentary session, which saw the re-election of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for a seventh consecutive term and the election of FPM MP Elias Bou Saab as deputy speaker, within the framework of an undeclared agreement between the Shiite duo and the FPM, as described by some lawmakers. The opposition deputies explained that Berri and Bou Saab have both received 65 parliamentary votes, as a result of a prior agreement between the two blocs. The head of the FPM, MP Gebran Bassil, had denied this claim, asserting that his bloc had cast a blank vote in the speaker’s election. In this regard, the head of the National Liberal Party, MP Camille Chamoun, justified this agreement by “the tripartite alliance’s fear of the arrival of a large and effective force to the Parliament.”In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “The people, who gave us their confidence, want actions and a clear methodology to achieve their interests, not the interests of politicians.”He called on the forces of change to reach out to the opposition deputies from the traditional political blocs, and to coordinate fully in order “to prevent the other side from consolidating its power.”Hezbollah had succeeded before the parliamentary elections at ending a rift between its allies, the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, and overcoming their differences of interest. This was emphasized by the member of the Strong Republic bloc (Lebanese Forces), MP Fadi Karam. Karam said that he had “no doubt there was an agreement between the Shiite duo and the Free Patriotic Movement, as a result of which they won the main parliamentary positions.”This group “cannot protect itself except by the positions it has won, by consolidating its presence in power...” he stated.

Associations protest outside BDL, urge governor to free their money
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
Humanitarian organizations and associations protested Thursday in front of the Central Bank, urging authorities to free their funds trapped in the banks. Social Affairs Caretaker Minister Hector Hajjar participated in the protest. "This is not a political protest," he said. He asked the Central Bank governor to facilitate the bank transfers of these associations and to free all the donations they receive from abroad. In a statement, the central bank had said it had agreed to give the associations 40% of their money in the banks. "We need an official circular, not a statement," Hajjar said, adding that "40% is not enough."Children with physical disabilities and special needs also participated in the protest. "We urge the Central Bank to free our money trapped in the banks in order to stay in our schools," a child said, as another waved to a reporter. Orphans, elderly, people with disabilities and people in need benefit from these associations that now fail to access their funds or pay their employees. "After a two-months dialogue, we have reached a dead-end and empty promises," Hajjar said angrily. Labor Caretaker Minister Mustafa Bayram had also participated in the protest.

Skaff visits Berri, urges for 'political' government 'where majority rules'
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
PSP-backed MP Ghassan Skaff visited Thursday Ain el-Tineh to meet with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Skaff said he supports forming a political government "where the majority rules and the minority opposes," adding that it shouldn't be a technocrat government.
Skaff had lost to MP Elias Bou Saab as a Deputy Speaker candidate, with 60 votes in the second round and 49 in the first. Reformist MP Ibrahim Mneimneh told al-Jadeed that the Oct. 17 MPs had decided to cast a blank vote in both rounds, but changed their mind during the session to vote for Skaff in the second round. The reason, according to Mneimneh, was to create a more competitive vote, as Skaff had declared himself as an independent, even though he had run on the Progressive Socialist Party electoral list.

British Ambassador Collard visits UNIFIL and tours the Blue Line
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
British Ambassador to Lebanon Ian Collard and British Embassy’s Defense Attaché Lt. Col Lee Saunders have visited UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, the Mission’s area of operations and the Blue Line. The British Embassy said in a statement that Ambassador Collard was briefed on UNIFIL’s crucial work especially along the Blue Line, and the challenges faced at the current time. "Ambassador Collard was also briefed on how the Lebanese Armed Forces are working to maintain stability in South Lebanon." UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Aroldo Lázaro received Ambassador Collard in his office and discussed issues relating to UNIFIL’s operations, the statement added. After the visit, Ambassador Collard said: ‘I am delighted to have visited UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura and to have seen the Blue Line. During my meetings I reiterated our continuing support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), who are essential for the stability of Lebanon as the sole legitimate defender of the country. I relayed the UK’s strong commitment to a stable and secure Lebanon, respect for Security Council resolutions, including resolution 1701, and condemnation of all violations. I thanked UNIFIL, who are playing a critical role in maintaining the cessation of hostilities, de-escalating tension in the UNIFIL area of operations and preserving stability along the Blue Line.'

World Bank extends CPF period, says Lebanon has lost precious time
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
The World Bank has extended its Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with Lebanon by one additional year "to advance urgently needed socioeconomic recovery programs targeting the poor and most vulnerable and support urgently needed macroeconomic and structural reforms." In a statement, the world Bank said it has restructured and reprogramed its portfolio by cancelling underperforming projects and proactively allocating resources to newly identified priorities through a response focused on relief, recovery, and resilience.
“Despite early warnings, Lebanon has lost precious time and numerous opportunities to adopt a path to reform its economic and financial system. The cost of inaction is colossal not only on daily lives of citizens, but also on the future of the Lebanese people,” said Saroj Kumar Jha, World Bank Mashreq Regional Director. “Two years and a half into the crisis, Lebanon has yet to embark on a comprehensive reform and recovery program to stop the country from further sinking. Continued deliberate delay in addressing drivers of the crisis represents a threat not only at the socio-economic level but also a risk of a systemic failing of state institutions and pressure on an already fragile social peace,” Kumar Jha added.

2022 Kavli Prize Honors Lebanese Scientist Huda Zoghbi
Associated Press/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters has announced the 2022 Kavli Prize Laureates in the fields of astrophysics, nanoscience, and neuroscience. Eleven scientists from six countries, including Lebanon, were honored for their research that has transformed our understanding of the big, the small and the complex. Lebanese Huda Zoghbi and three other neuroscientists received the 2022 Kavli Prize Laureate in Neuroscience. "Four persistent neuroscientists are recognized for pioneering the discovery of genes underlying a range of serious brain disorders and establishing a blueprint for neuroscience research, diagnosis, and treatment for fragile X syndrome, spinocerebeller ataxia, Rett syndrome, and rare forms of epilepsy and autism spectrum disorder," the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters said in a statement. Together Harry T. Orr and Huda Y. Zoghbi discovered ATAXN1, the gene responsible for spinocerebellar ataxia 1 (SCA1), a disease in which neurons in the cerebellum degenerate and cause the loss of balance and coordination; it is progressive, permanent, and often fatal. Working together, Orr and Zoghbi discovered that a similar repeat expansion causes SCA1 and discovered that the mutation caused proteins to misfold and clump together in cerebellar neurons, eventually leading to death. Additionally, Orr's work showed the disease could be treated and his methodology is one of the main models being used for studying neurodegenerative diseases today.
Zoghbi also uncovered the gene MECP2, which causes Rett syndrome, a rare genetic neurological disorder that primarily presents in young girls, often with autism-like symptoms, and results in devastating motor and cognitive symptoms. Zoghbi discovered that changes in the level of MECP2, a repressor of gene expression is essential for the normal function of many types of neurons in the brain. MECP2 is one of the first identified epigenetic causes for a brain disorder. Her research found that MECP2 affects hundreds of neurons and genes and that normalizing MECP2 levels through oligonucleotide therapy reverses the gene's effects."These scientists discovered the genetic basis of multiple brain disorders, and elucidated the pathways by which these genes work," said Chair of the Neuroscience Committee, Kristine B. Walhovd.

British Ambassador in Lebanon urges swift govt. formation, urgent reforms
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
British Ambassador to Lebanon Ian Collard has hosted the Queen’s Birthday Party in honor of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee and her 96th birthday. This year, Her Majesty became the first British Monarch to celebrate a Platinum Jubilee, which marks 70 years of service to the people of the United Kingdom, the Realms and the Commonwealth. The event, which was held at the Mouawad Museum in Beirut, was attended by Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib representing President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati.
Addressing the guests, Ambassador Collard said that “her Majesty is both the longest serving monarch in the history of the United Kingdom, and the longest reigning monarch in the world today. Queen Elizabeth II has quite literally dedicated her life to leadership and public service.”
“Of course, the world has changed a great deal in those 70 years. The modern republic of Lebanon was only a little more than three decades old when Her Majesty ascended to the British throne,” Collard added. “While Lebanon faces one of the toughest periods of its recent history, I believe that with compassionate leadership and a commitment to serving Lebanon’s citizens, these trends can – and must – be reversed.”Collard went on to say that “with the conclusion of the recent parliamentary election, now is the time for leadership, to quickly form a new government that drives forward urgent reforms, with the backing of all political parties and interested groups.”“The United Kingdom does and will continue to play our part,” he said. Ambassador Collard planted an olive tree at the Mouawad Museum in honor of the Queen’s Green Canopy, which was created to mark Her Majesty’s Platinum Jubilee. "The initiative encourages people to plant trees to create a lasting legacy in recognition of Her Majesty's leadership, which will benefit future generations," the British Embassy said in a statement. The Lebanese Army Band and the British Army’s Nottinghamshire Band of the Royal Engineers joined together to play the British and Lebanese national anthems. The Platinum Jubilee Central Weekend, from 2-5 June, will be marked by four days of celebrations in the United Kingdom and around the world. This will include the Queen’s Birthday Parade in central London and the Platinum Party concert at Buckingham Palace.
"This special weekend celebrates Her Majesty’s extraordinary reign, which has seen her travel more widely than any other monarch, undertaking over 260 official visits overseas, including nearly 100 State Visits. She has been the UK’s foremost diplomat. Known for her sense of duty and her devotion to a life of service, she has been an important figurehead for the UK and the Commonwealth during times of enormous social change," the statement said. Guests were invited to make a donation to Food Blessed, a local Lebanese NGO that aims to fight hunger and support vulnerable communities, which was founded by a former recipient of the UK Government’s prestigious Chevening scholarship. "The event was made possible thanks to the kind support of our sponsors. We are grateful for their generosity, which enabled us to celebrate The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee," the British Embassy concluded.

Geagea refuses any PM backed by Hizbullah
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
Lebanese forces leader Samir Geagea has said that his party will refuse any Prime minister and any President who are allied with Hizbullah. He added, in a press interview, that the divisions in Parliament will lead to a big confrontation between Hizbullah and its allies and the LF.
Geagea said that a cooperation with the Oct. 17 MPs is needed. "We all need each other in order to make a change," he affirmed. LF sources have meanwhile told Kuwaiti newspaper al-Anbaa that people have voted for real change not for "theatrical movements" in the streets, slamming the reformist MPs for not focusing on "the essence of change but rather on the forms."Observers have warned of protracted deadlocks during consultations to name a new prime minister and in the run-up to an election later this year to replace President Michel Aoun.

Who will be Lebanon's next PM?
Naharnet/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
The binding parliamentary consultations to name a new Prime Minister will likely start next week, media reports said Thursday. The consultations will start the middle of next week, after the election of the parliamentary committees' members, according to the reports.
As for the candidates names, the possibility of re-appointing Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati has been raised, while other names have also emerged like former President of the U.N. Security Council Nawaf Salam, Lebanese Ambassador to Germany Mustapha Adib and businessman Samir al-Khatib. Miqati had said in an interview that he prefers not to be re-appointed, and suggested the names of MP Ashraf Rifi, MP Abdel Rahman al-Bizri and economist Amer Bsat. Meanwhile, al-Liwaa newspaper said that Free Patriotic chief Jebran Bassil is against re-appointing Miqati, after President Michel Aoun had mentioned the possibility as a choice in case political parties failed to agree on a new PM.

شارل الياس شرتوني /سياسة الكراسي الموسيقية ومناورات الفاشية الشيعية
The Politics of Musical Chairs and Shiite Fascism Gambits
Charles Elias Chartouni/June 02/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109096/charles-elias-chartounithe-politics-of-musical-chairs-and-shiite-fascism-gambits-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3/
Lebanese keep running after the illusion of an impending solution that fails to come about at every turn of their awkward political life. After a relative but important political change succeeding late elections, they find themselves confronted with the difficulties of engineering a coalition to counter the deadlocks set by Hezbollah.The risks of a fractured opposition plays fully into Hezbollah’s hands and perpetuates the impasses of the last sixteen years, at a time when the country is unraveling in every respect, and incremental entropies may yield an inevitable death. The kaleidoscopic opposition has no other chance but to unite around a consensual political program based on the restoration of sovereignty and structural governance reforms .
Two and a half years of deliberate stonewalling and sabotaging of reforms are not incidental facts, they are intentional policies which aim to break Statehood below the thresholds of sustainability, and make sure that Lebanon is made pliable to Iranian power politics, and transforms into a platform for subversion and international economic criminality. The stalemated Vienna negotiations were the litmus test of Iran’s intentions, and the War in Ukraine unveiled the competing agendas and their vectors, all along the geopolitical spectrum extending between Afghanistan and Turkey. Iran is zeroing in on its destabilization policy throughout the Middle East, doubling down on domestic repression, enhancing its nuclear thresholds, and relaying the Russians and Chinese in their endeavors to challenge the Liberal geopolitical order created by the US after WWII.
Turkey’s jockeying and insidious games are resurfacing after a short interlude of dormancy, propelled by deferred imperial agendas, thwarted Middle Eastern ambitions, and contained political inroads in the EU. In such a context of political volatility, unhinged political and religious deliriums, Lebanon finds itself on the crossroads between internal decay and destructive power politics. The constitutional mandates revolving around elections, the election of the speaker of the assembly and his deputy, the formation of a viable cabinet and the presidential rotation are, unfortunately, under the mercy of power asymmetries, the brittleness of institutional life, and the state of political fragmentation which puts at stake the democratic framing of politics and its normative and constitutional standards.
The slim majority has to split the vote between the Parliament’s speaker and his deputy and make sure to undermine his ability to mastermind the parliament. its successful bid at the parliamentary level should strengthen its leverage, while negotiating the formation of a new cabinet, trying to preempt a tentative and extended void, and perpetuate the state of political subservience featured by the current cabinet and its predecessors. Otherwise, the fight for an independent presidency is essential, if we are to win the battle over the Iranian annexation of Lebanon and its countervailing dynamics. Lebanon has no chances recovering its sovereignty and reforming its governance, unless Shiites decide to normalize their political choices, adjust to the realities of a pluralistic democracy, and engage others in the search for consensual solutions to cataclysmic crises. Otherwise, the rest of us should search for alternative solutions.

Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections: A Fragile Step in the Right Direction
DRI Lebanon Democracy Reporting International/DRI Lebanon/June 02/2022
15 May 2022 put to rest many of the sceptics who doubted that these long-awaited parliamentary elections would take place and who did not believe that the forces of the opposition that emerged from the October 2019 popular protests (“the Revolution”), would fare well at the polls. Yet, with the closing of the polls the gradual announcement of the results indicated that this election, contrary to what many believed, was not merely an occasion for the ruling elites to reconfirm their dominance over their fiefdoms but opened a perspective for real change in the future.
This sign of optimism was mainly brought about by the fact that the independent opposition lists, which are commonly referred to as the “forces of change” (qiwa at-taghyir) – or, rather erroneously, “civil society lists” (mujtamaa madani) – were able to clinch 13 seats compared to just one seat in 2018 in an imposing increase in votes received, from 39,075 in 2018 (2.1% of the votes) to 300,000 votes in 2022 (16.2%), second to the votes for Hezbollah and the Amal movement, and ahead of the Lebanese Forces. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in the Levant, lost its majority in parliament, as many of its allies, particularly the Free Patriotic Movement, led by President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law and political heir Gibran Bassil, who are considered to be close to the Assad regime lost all of their seats, some of which they had held since 1992.
Regrettably, the severe underrepresentation of women in parliament continues: the recent election did not achieve much change, with only a marginal increase from 6 to 8 elected members, 5 of whom are from the opposition.
Voter Turnout: A Blow to the Ruling Establishment
The spike in voting for the non-aligned opposition lists was not simply a punitive move against political elites who have relinquished responsibility for a state teetering on the brink of failure, but rather it is a shift in behaviour whereby traditional voters broke a voting pattern in favour of a seemingly more promising political alternative.
While the established political parties continued to wager on a solid bloc of votes secured by faithful followers who are either ideologically aligned with them or are recipients of clientelist services, many Lebanese with partisan sympathies voted, this time, for opposition lists denouncing the very system that previously benefited them. This turnaround likely resulted from the depletion of clientelist services and the disillusionment toward politicians and ideologies that have repeatedly dodged the calls for reform.
There were, also, those who did not vote. Many media reports suggested that in some areas people were intimidated in order not to vote. Also, for example, some may have lacked trust in the alternative. The turnout was lower than the 2018 and 2009 elections (49.7% and 54%, respectively), a result that contrasts with the enormity of the stakes associated with the current election. The drop in turnout was particularly marked in some regions, perhaps a correlation with the Hariri “boycott” and the fear to challenge Hezbollah’s supremacy. The Hasbaya-Marjeyoun district, where the opposition won two key seats, and Tripoli, witnessed a 10% decrease in turnout, Saida-Jezzine (South I) a 16% decrease, and the North II district a 33% decrease, all of which eventually served the opposition lists. The unprecedently high vote of the Lebanese diaspora was largely in favour of the anti-establishment factions, with 60% of the 130,000 out-of-country voters casting their vote for opposition lists.
New independent contenders captured two seats in the districts where Hezbollah and Amal had until now claimed hegemony, a significant achievement. The lukewarm Shiite participation (42%) – not to say the reluctance to vote – is largely the result of the shelving of a socio-economic and political reform agenda.
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement succeeded in retaining all 27 Shiite seats but, for the first time, failed to secure the re-election of key non-Shiite allies who ran on its ticket. Nevertheless, securing the parliamentary seats that are earmarked to the Shiite community gives leverage to the Shiite duo in its quest to re-elect the head of the Amal movement, Nabih Berri, to the Speakership, and thereby, to maintain the “institutional legitimacy” of Hezbollah’s weapons.
Securing the Gains of “the Revolution”: Diversity Within a Semblance of Unity
The inability of the traditional sectarian parties to keep the entrenched clientelist system functioning, the compounded tragedies unfolding since 2019, and the derailing of the investigation into the August 2020 Beirut port explosion have tilted many voters toward the agenda of the independent candidates and built a growing momentum in their favour.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s self-declared boycott of former of the elections also benefited the new contenders, who were able to garner part of the Sunni vote. Hence, if Hariri does succeed in making a political comeback in the next elections, many of these voters might revert to their old loyalties. The performance of the opposition MPs and their ability to consolidate their supporter base will be a key factor in this regard.
The new members of the opposition do not necessarily share identical views on all matters of governance, but they do share a broad common vision on key issues pertaining to state sovereignty and anti-corruption. Although such a programmatic stance did appeal to many voters, the 13 new members of parliament could not achieve a better score because of the high electoral thresholds imposed by the electoral law, which disenfranchises political minorities, in addition to limited media access, lack of resources, logistics, and lack of campaigning experience compared to the established political parties.
The May 2022 election may be a watershed moment in the ongoing struggle to establish a state that is immune to regional interference because of the ongoing Iran-Arab tug-of-war. The opposition should work toward the election, in September–November 2022, of a President of the Republic who represents the aspirations of most Lebanese people rather than the agenda of one group over another. The presidential election would be the second concrete step in the right direction.
The challenge of the new opposition is now not to dwell on the vagaries of the political trends that helped them into parliament but to join forces and become a political centre of gravity that generates its own trends to become a serious competitor for the ruling establishment. This can only be done if these small and at times disjointed groups, transition into building cross-national networks that can become modern political platforms having a strong convening power that appeals to disenchanted Lebanese voters who long for a truly democratic political system. Otherwise, the deeply resilient Lebanese system of clientelism will be quick to astutely cannibalise, lure, or co-opt its newcomers to claim a renewed legitimacy.
This analysis was written by Makram Rabah, lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of History. His book Conflict on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, the Maronites and Collective Memory (Edinburgh University Press: 2020) covers collective identities and the Lebanese Civil War.
The opinions expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of its author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the German Federal Foreign Office or DRI.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 02-03/2022
Putin clings to semblance of normality as his war grinds on
Mark Trevelyan/Reuter/June 2, 2022
* Kremlin leader projects image of business as usual
* No sign that Putin seeks exit from war he started
* Russia builds momentum in Donbas but U.S. steps up arms to Kyiv
* Putin may hope for growing splits and war fatigue in West (Adds reference to commemoration of Ukrainian child victims, 20th paragraph)
Approaching the 100-day mark in a war that he refuses to call by its name, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a man intent on conveying the impression of business as usual. As his army fought its way into the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk this week, Putin was making awkward small talk in a televised ceremony to honour parents of exceptionally large families. Since the start of May, he has met - mostly online - with educators, oil and transport bosses, officials responsible for tackling forest fires, and the heads of at least a dozen Russian regions, many of them thousands of miles from Ukraine. Along with several sessions of his Security Council and a series of calls with foreign leaders, he found time for a video address to players, trainers and spectators of the All-Russian Night Hockey League.
The appearance of solid, even boring routine is consistent with the Kremlin's narrative that it is not fighting a war - merely waging a "special military operation" to bring a troublesome neighbour to heel. For a man whose army has heavily underperformed in Ukraine and been beaten back from its two biggest cities, suffering untold thousands of casualties, Putin shows no visible sign of stress. In contrast with the run-up to the Feb. 24 invasion, when he denounced Ukraine and the West in bitter, angry speeches, his rhetoric is restrained. The 69-year-old appears calm, focused and fully in command of data and details.
While acknowledging the impact of Western sanctions, he tells Russians their economy will emerge stronger and more self-sufficient, while the West will suffer a boomerang effect from spiralling food and fuel prices.
KEEPING UP APPEARANCES
But as the war grinds on with no end in sight, Putin faces an increasing challenge to maintain the semblance of normality. Economically, the situation will worsen as sanctions bite harder and Russia heads towards recession. Militarily, Putin's forces have gradually advanced in eastern Ukraine but the United States and its allies are stepping up arms supplies to Kyiv, including a U.S. promise this week of advanced rocket systems.
Should Russia's offensive falter, Putin could be forced into declaring a full-scale mobilisation of reserves to bolster his depleted forces, Western defence experts say.
"This would involve more than a million people in Russia, and then of course it will be visible for those whose who have not yet realised that Russia is in a full war," said Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian academic who has met and observed Putin over many years.
That would be a hard sell to a Russian public which is mainly reliant on state media loyal to the Kremlin and has therefore been kept in ignorance of the scale of Russian setbacks and casualties. Yet Russia is still not at that point, Mangott said, and Putin may draw some encouragement from signs of Western fatigue with the war. Divisions are emerging between Ukraine's most hawkish backers - the United States, Britain, Poland and the Baltic states - and a group of countries including Italy, France and Germany which are pressing to bring an end to the war.
"Putin is counting that the longer this war drags on, the more conflicts and frictions within the Western camp will appear," he said. Meanwhile peace talks with Ukraine stalled weeks ago, and Putin shows absolutely no sign of seeking a diplomatic exit. "He still thinks there is a good military solution to this problem," said Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at Crisis Group. Putin preserves the option to claim victory at any point because his stated objectives - what he called the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine - "were always goals that you could declare accomplished because they were never clearly defined and were always somewhat ridiculous", Oliker said. The words "war" and "Ukraine" were never spoken during Putin's 40-minute video encounter on Wednesday with the prolific families, including Vadim and Larisa Kadzayev with their 15 children from Beslan in the North Caucasus region.
Wearing their best dresses and suits, the families sat stiffly at tables laden with flowers and food as Putin called on them in turn to introduce themselves. On the same day, eight empty school buses pulled into the main square of Lviv in western Ukraine to serve as a reminder of 243 Ukrainian children killed since the start of Putin's invasion. The closest he came to acknowledging the war was in a pair of references to the plight of children in Donbas and the "extraordinary situation" there. Russia had many problems but that was always the case, he said as he wrapped up the online meeting. "Nothing unusual is actually happening here." (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Nick Macfie)

War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine:
- Street fighting in Severodonetsk -
Ukrainian forces pledge to fight "until the end" in Severodonetsk but with Russian forces in control of most of the key eastern city, their prospects of success appear slim. "Street fighting continues," Lugansk regional governor Sergiy Gaiday says on Telegram, estimating that 80 percent of the city is in Russian hands. Lugansk is one of two regions, along with Donetsk, that make up Ukraine's industrial heartland Donbas which Russia has vowed to "liberate". Once in control of Severodonetsk, Russian forces will likely try cross the Donets river, which flows through the city, to try take nearby Donetsk, Britain's defense ministry wrote in an intelligence note Thursday. Ukrainian forces have destroyed bridges across the river. "It is likely Russia will need at least a short tactical pause to re-set for opposed river crossings and subsequent attacks further into Donetsk Oblast," the British intelligence memo said.
- AU chief to meet with Putin on food -
The head of the African Union, Senegalese President Macky Sall, will meet President Vladimir Putin in the southwestern Russian city of Sochi on Friday to discuss food shortages caused by the conflict, which are exacerbating hunger in parts of Africa.
Both Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat and other cereals to Africa, while Russia, which is under export-limiting Western sanctions, is a key producer of fertilizer. Sall's office says the visit, which was proposed by Putin, is aimed at "freeing up stocks of cereals and fertilizers" and easing the Ukraine conflict. During the week, Sall criticizes the decision by EU members to expel Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, which has made it harder for them to process international payments for Russian goods.
- Danes vote to join EU defense policy -
Danes vote overwhelmingly in a referendum to join the EU's common defense policy 30 years after the NATO member opted out. Almost 67 percent of people in the traditionally eurosceptic country back the move, which comes hot on the heels of neighboring Finland's and Sweden's historic applications for NATO membership. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says Denmark is "showing that when Putin invades a free country and threatens the stability in Europe, we others pull together."
- War-weary Ukrainians get football boost -
Ukraine's football team beat Scotland in their first competitive match since the Russian invasion to set up a World Cup play-off final against Wales on Sunday. Ukraine manager Oleksandr Petrakov dedicates his side's 3-1 win to those fighting in the trenches of his war-torn homeland.
"This victory was not for me or for the team members, it was for our country. This was a huge victory for Ukraine. "They did everything for the people they play for, the Ukrainians. "For the people watching them back home: the armed forces in the trenches, the people working in the hospitals. They say thank you to us, and we say thank you to them."

Israeli Army Simulates Attacks On Iranian Nuclear Facilities
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 02 June, 2022
The Israeli army continued one of its largest military maneuvers since its establishment, by training on scenarios that simulate targeting nuclear facilities deep in Iranian territory, in the presence of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi. In parallel, former Army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot said that the Israeli military operations have impeded Iran’s turning into a nuclear state. Eisenkot, who was speaking on Wednesday during the Security and Strategy Conference at the Academic College in Netanya, said: “Israel is carrying out various operations to strike Iran’s military nuclear capabilities. Had it not been for these operations, Iran would have turned into a nuclear state 7 or 10 years ago.”Avichay Adraee, the spokesman of the Israeli Army to the Arabic media, had spoken frankly about direct war plans against Iran, pointing to ongoing maneuvers in Cyprus. In a statement on Wednesday, Adraee said that dozens of Israeli fighters carried out exercises simulating a large-scale strike on Iran. He noted that the Israeli Air Force aircraft simulated a long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets. Gantz and Kohavi flew to Cyprus to oversee the training. They met with the chief of the Cypriot military, Demokritos Zervakis and participated in an assessment of the planning of exercises and the deployment of forces, including the navy, and other special forces. According to a statement issued by the Israeli army, “the two sides discussed the common security challenges in the Middle East, and opportunities to expand cooperation between the two armies.”In turn, Gantz said: “This is the culmination of one of the largest and most comprehensive exercises we have done over the years.”“The Israeli army will deal a severe blow to anyone who seeks to threaten the citizens of the State of Israel,” he added.

TankerTrackers.com Locates Seized Greek Tankers in Iranian Waters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
Two Greek oil tankers seized by Iran last week are located in Iranian waters, monitoring service TankerTrackers.com said in a Twitter post on Thursday. "We now have a visual confirmation that the hijacked Greek Suezmax tanker Prudent Warrior is in the anchorage of Bandar Abbas, Iran," the online service which tracks and reports shipments and storage of crude oil said in the post. The second vessel, the Delta Poseidon, also a Suezmax tanker, is being held north of Larak island, it added, according to Reuters. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' navy seized the two vessels on May 27 in the Gulf, after the United States confiscated oil from an Iranian-flagged tanker, the Pegas, held off the Greek coast, Tehran's state media had said. The Pegas was later released but the seizure inflamed tensions at a delicate time, with Iran and world powers seeking to revive a deal to restrain Tehran's nuclear program which US former President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.

FBI: Iran-backed Hackers Targeted Boston Children's Hospital
Asharq Al-Awsat/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
Hackers sponsored by the Iranian government last year attempted a "despicable" cyberattack against Boston Children's Hospital that threatened to disrupt services to patients, FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Wednesday. Wray, in a speech delivered at a conference hosted by Boston College, detailed the incident as he warned about the rising threat cyber attacks sponsored by nation states like Iran, Russia and China pose to companies and US infrastructure. "We got a report from one of our intelligence partners indicating Boston Children's was about to be targeted, and understanding the urgency of the situation, the cyber squad in our Boston field office raced out to notify the hospital," Wray said. The FBI said it contacted the hospital in August 2021, and Wray said officials were able to quickly get the nationally renowned children's hospital the information it needed to "stop the danger right away" and mitigate the threat.
"Quick actions by everyone involved, especially at the hospital, protected both the network and the sick kids that depend on it," Reuters quoted Wray as saying in the most extensive disclosure by US authorities of the incident. Wray in March said that Iranian-sponsored hackers had in June 2021 compromised an unnamed children's hospital. Boston Children's Hospital, a 395-bed facility, in a statement confirmed that FBI and its staff had "proactively thwarted the threat to our network." Wray called the incident "one of the most despicable cyberattacks I have ever seen" and an example of the increasing risks hospitals and other providers of critical infrastructure face from hackers, including state-sponsored ones. "If malicious cyber actors are going to purposefully cause destruction, or hold data and systems for ransom, they tend to hit us somewhere that's really going to hurt," Wray said.

Western Powers Urge IAEA to Rebuke Iran at Meeting Next Week
London - Vienna - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
The United States, France, Britain and Germany are pushing for the UN nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors to rebuke Iran for failing to answer longstanding questions on uranium traces at undeclared sites, a draft resolution showed. Western powers had held off submitting a draft resolution to previous quarterly meetings of the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board on this issue to avoid derailing talks. But those talks have not been held since March. The issue has now come to a head since the IAEA told member states this week that Iran had not given credible answers on the particles found at three mainly old but undeclared sites, although both sides agreed in March to revive discussions aimed at resolving such open issues by now. The IAEA board “calls upon Iran to act on an urgent basis to fulfil its legal obligations and take up immediately the (IAEA) director general’s offer of further engagement to clarify and resolve all outstanding safeguards issues,” the draft text sent to IAEA member states and seen by Reuters on Wednesday said. The text, dated Tuesday, did not say which countries drafted it. Two diplomats said it was the United States and the so-called E3, namely France, Britain and Germany. The draft has yet to be formally submitted for the meeting, which starts on Monday. Board members could adopt it unopposed or put it to a vote, but the draft is likely to be adjusted before it is submitted. The move is likely to anger Iran, which generally bristles at such resolutions, and that in turn could damage prospects for rescuing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Indirect talks on that between Iran and the United States are already stalled. Iran, which insists its nuclear program is peaceful while the West says it is moving closer to being able to build a bomb, would respond to any “unconstructive action” taken at next week's board meeting, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said. “We will naturally respond in a strong and appropriate manner to any unconstructive action” by the board, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said, according to the ministry's Telegram channel. “Those using the IAEA Director General’s (Rafael Grossi) report as a political tool and means of pressure against Iran will be solely responsible for the ensuing consequences,” he added. Iran has deemed Grossi’s report “not fair and unbalanced,” and it accused Israel of interfering in its content. The western moves come amid Israel’s increased pressure on the IAEA. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Iran on Tuesday of stealing internal UN nuclear watchdog reports under a plan to prepare ways of staving off scrutiny of its nuclear program. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran secured access to secret IAEA reports almost two decades ago and circulated the documents among top officials who prepared cover stories and falsified a record to conceal suspected past work on nuclear weapons, it quoted Middle East intelligence officials and documents.

Syrian Democratic Forces Warn Against New Turkish Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
The commander of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said on Thursday a new offensive threatened by Turkey in northern Syria would create a humanitarian crisis and undermine a campaign against ISIS. SDF general commander Mazloum Abdi called on all sides to "prevent any new tragedies and support de-escalation," Reuters reported. "We are concerned about new Turkish threats which pose high risk on northern Syria. Any offensive will divide Syrians, create a new humanitarian crisis, and displace original inhabitants," he wrote on Twitter. Turkey has pledged to launch a new military incursion against the Syrian Kurdish YPG, the spearhead of the SDF, which controls swathes of the north at the Turkish border. While Turkey views the Kurdish-led forces in Syria as terrorists and a national security threat, the United States views the SDF as a major partner that helped drive ISIS out of vast areas of Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday Turkey will rid northern Syria's Tal Rifaat and Manbij areas of terrorists, confirming the targets of the new incursion for the first time and saying it will continue into other regions. Ankara has carried out four operations in northern Syria since 2016, seizing hundreds of kilometers of land and pushing some 30 km deep into the country, mainly targeting the YPG. Washington has expressed concern about any new offensive in northern Syria, saying it would put US troops at risk and undermine regional stability.

Iraq Braces for Power Shortages as Iran Cuts Gas Supplies
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
The electricity supply reaching Iraqi homes has dropped once again as the country continues to struggle with a three-decades old power crisis that successive governments have failed to resolve. Instead of finding a solution, authorities often present weak justifications and excuses.
Iraq's Electricity Ministry said Wednesday the country will face power shortages after crucial energy supplies from Iran were cut over non-payment. In a statement, the ministry said the total electricity supply was drastically reduced after Iran stopped exporting 5 million cubic meters of gas daily to Iraq. Iran had demanded that Iraq pays $1.2 billion by the end of May. “The Iranian side has demanded payment of the financial obligations for the gas fees from the Iraqi side,” the ministry’s statement said. Iraq has been unable to make the payment because of the failure of political elites to form a government eight months after national elections. The caretaker Cabinet that's in place does not have the authority to make the payments. The Electricity Ministry said it was in contact with Iran to find a solution to addressing the debt and resume power supplies. A few days ago, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi chaired a meeting of the Energy Committee, in the presence of several ministers.“The meeting was devoted to discussing the situation of electrical energy, overcoming obstacles,” read a statement released by the premier’s office. The meeting discussed the maintenance and repairs of electric power transmission networks, the mechanisms for providing fuel for electric power plants, and finding quick solutions to the problems that may hinder the sustainability of their work. During the meeting, Kadhimi stressed the importance of continuing efforts and working at the highest pace to provide electricity to citizens, prepare to face any potential crisis this summer, and provide possible solutions to address it quickly.

US Senators Introduce Legislation Calling Out Iran-China Ties
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
US Republican Senators introduced on Tuesday a bill to call attention to Iran’s ties with China by prohibiting any deal with Iran until the regime terminates its relations with Beijing and Hamas. US Senators Marco Rubio and Marsha Blackburn introduced the so-called Iran China Accountability Act, which stipulates that Iran terminates all agreements involving the transfer of funds from China and terminates strategic security and military partnerships with China. The two Republicans were joined by Senators Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Thom Tillis, Mike Braun and Ted Cruz. The bill stipulates that Iran terminates all ties and transfers of cash to Iranian proxy forces, including Hamas. “Iran should verify the destruction of all nuclear, missile, cyber and chemical weapons, materials, and infrastructure,” the bill said. It also requires that any nuclear agreement with Iran must be ratified by a two-third vote of the US Senate. “The Obama-Biden Iran Deal has always been a failure. The Biden administration should not re-enter a deal that legitimizes the Iranian regime — especially while they continue to fund terrorism, endorse Communist China’s dangerous government, and facilitate genocide,” said Blackburn. She added that this legislation will stop taxpayer dollars from enabling the White House to back this corrupt regime. Describing Iran and China as two of America’s greatest adversaries that cannot be trusted, Scott said, “Iran chants ‘death to America’ and wants to destroy our great ally, Israel. Communist China will stop at nothing in its quest for world domination. These dangerous regimes, clearly emboldened by President (Joe) Biden’s appeasement and desperate desire to re-enter the failed Iran nuclear deal, are working to gain a critical foothold in the Middle East.”For his part, Senator Tillis said the US needs to learn from the failures of the nuclear deal.
“Any future agreements between the United States and Iran must ensure Tehran has ceased its support of terrorist groups and its financial reliance on the totalitarian Chinese Communist Party,” he said. The lawmakers also recalled the strategic economic deal signed in March 2021 between Iran and China, which is worth $400 billion, for 25 years. They said this agreement would advance Chinese influence in the Middle East, adding that despite an international sanctions regime, Beijing remains Iran’s largest oil customer.

FBI: Iran-backed Hackers Targeted Boston Children's Hospital
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
Hackers sponsored by the Iranian government last year attempted a "despicable" cyberattack against Boston Children's Hospital that threatened to disrupt services to patients, FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Wednesday. Wray, in a speech delivered at a conference hosted by Boston College, detailed the incident as he warned about the rising threat cyber attacks sponsored by nation states like Iran, Russia and China pose to companies and US infrastructure. "We got a report from one of our intelligence partners indicating Boston Children's was about to be targeted, and understanding the urgency of the situation, the cyber squad in our Boston field office raced out to notify the hospital," Wray said. The FBI said it contacted the hospital in August 2021, and Wray said officials were able to quickly get the nationally renowned children's hospital the information it needed to "stop the danger right away" and mitigate the threat. "Quick actions by everyone involved, especially at the hospital, protected both the network and the sick kids that depend on it," Reuters quoted Wray as saying in the most extensive disclosure by US authorities of the incident. Wray in March said that Iranian-sponsored hackers had in June 2021 compromised an unnamed children's hospital. Boston Children's Hospital, a 395-bed facility, in a statement confirmed that FBI and its staff had "proactively thwarted the threat to our network." Wray called the incident "one of the most despicable cyberattacks I have ever seen" and an example of the increasing risks hospitals and other providers of critical infrastructure face from hackers, including state-sponsored ones. "If malicious cyber actors are going to purposefully cause destruction, or hold data and systems for ransom, they tend to hit us somewhere that's really going to hurt," Wray said.

US, Israeli Officials Coordinate to Prevent Iran from Getting Nuclear Weapons
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
US and Israeli officials committed to coordinating efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in a meeting of senior officials, the White House said in a statement on Wednesday. The officials also discussed economic and diplomatic steps to achieve their goals and reviewed ongoing cooperation between the US and Israeli militaries in Tuesday's meeting, the White House said. Iran warned Wednesday it would respond to any "unconstructive actions" taken by the UN atomic watchdog after the agency reported traces of nuclear material at undeclared sites in Iran. Iran and the UN agency agreed in March on an approach to resolve the issue of the nuclear material found at Marivan, Varamin and Turquzabad -- sites that had not been declared by Iran as having hosted nuclear activities. But in a report on Monday the International Atomic Energy Agency said it still had questions which were "not clarified" despite long-running efforts to get Iran to explain the presence of the nuclear material. The IAEA board of governors is to hold a meeting on Monday for which Britain, France, Germany and the US have prepared a draft resolution "calling on Iran to cooperate on the question of undeclared sites", according to a European diplomatic source. "We will respond firmly and appropriately to any unconstructive action at the board of governors," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said in a statement.

Gulf States Underline Unified Stance on Russian-Ukrainian Crisis
Riyadh - Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that the unity of the stances of the Gulf States towards international issues and crises has consolidated the Cooperation Council as one of the effective and influential international forces.
He pointed to two separate Gulf meetings on Wednesday; the first held in the presence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and the second with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, via videoconference. “Through these two meetings, we voiced our unified position towards the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its negative repercussions, especially with regard to food security in the affected countries and the world,” the Saudi foreign minister said. Meanwhile, the Russian foreign minister stressed that the Gulf countries would not participate in Western sanctions against Moscow, Russian media reported. At the conclusion of the joint ministerial meeting of the strategic dialogue between Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Lavrov said that Russia did not stand against NATO or the European Union, adding that the international community should support the implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions unanimously agreed by its permanent members. The GCC is facing many challenges, mainly “Iran’s nuclear and missile program, its arming of militias, its support for terrorism, and its destabilizing behavior in the region,” according to the Saudi foreign minister, who added: “Our dialogue and communication with Iran must be based on a unified Gulf position through which we call for calm, cooperation and commitment to the principles of international legitimacy and good neighborliness, so that we can work together to achieve our development plans within a stable regional environment.”
His statements came on the sidelines of the 152nd Gulf Ministerial Meeting, which was held at the headquarters of the GCC Secretariat in Riyadh, in the presence of Lavrov. The meeting affirmed that the GCC position on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis was based on the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, and the preservation of the international system based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of states, non-interference in their internal affairs, and non-use or threat of force.In their final statement, the GCC ministers reiterated their support for mediation efforts to resolve the crisis between Russia and Ukraine through dialogue and negotiations.

Blinken Promises Abbas that Demands Will Be Discussed during Biden’s Regional Tour
Ramallah - Washington - Kifah Zboun and Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 June, 2022
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pressed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to refrain from taking decisions and measures against Israel, pending the arrival of US President Joe Biden to the region. Blinken called Abbas amid a state of frustration in Ramallah, as the latter had begun consultations with his advisers and members of the political leadership, in order to activate the decisions of the Palestinian Central Council, which include - among others - severing relations with Israel and freezing its recognition. The US State Secretary wanted to contain the Palestinian anger, after Abbas told him that he could no longer tolerate the current situation, complaining about the absence of international protection for the Palestinian people, and Israel’s denial of its obligations under signed agreements and resolutions of international legitimacy. Abbas told Blinken that the Palestinian leadership was in the process of taking measures to confront the Israeli escalation, “in light of the international community’s inability to compel Israel to comply with international legitimacy resolutions, and stop its criminal and occupying practices and its ethnic cleansing and racial discrimination measures, amid an American silence.”
Among other requests, Abbas raised the issue of removing the PLO from the US terrorism list, and reopening the US consulate in East Jerusalem, as well as the PLO office in Washington, as a full and committed partner in the peace process.
Blinken responded by emphasizing the commitment of Biden’s administration to a two-state solution, ending settlement expansion, preserving the status quo, stopping the expulsion of Palestinians from Jerusalem neighborhoods, and putting an end to unilateral actions on both sides. He also tried to reassure Abbas of the administration’s commitment to reopening the US consulate in Jerusalem. The US official told Abbas that the administration would send a high-level delegation to prepare for Biden’s visit, and promised him to discuss all of his requests. He also stressed the US determination to improve the situation for the Palestinians. Moreover, Blinken underlined “the US administration’s keenness to investigate the murder of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, and to prosecute and hold the killers accountable.”Blinken’s reassurances came following a meeting held by Abbas with his advisers and officials, to discuss decisions to pressure Israel, the United States and other international parties, to launch a political process, in light of the escalation of the Israeli attack on the Palestinians. Earlier this week, State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed that the United States was committed to opening its consulate in Jerusalem.
“We continue to believe it can be an important way for our country to engage with and provide support to the Palestinian people,” Price told reporters during a briefing.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 02-03/2022
Turkey is blackmailing NATO to justify its invasion of Syria - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 02/2022
Turkey waited until the crisis with NATO to begin talk of a new invasion of Syria, and it wouldn't be the first time. Here is its strategy.
Turkey has vowed a new invasion in Syria, modeled on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Claiming a need to “clean” or “clear” an area near the border of “terrorists,” Ankara has vowed to invade.
Its last invasion of Afrin in 2018 and later Sere Kaniye in 2019 led to hundreds of thousands of people being forced to flee and minorities being ethnically cleansed. Kurds, Yazidis and Christian minorities are Turkey's main targets.
Ankara has been talking up its invasion while it prevents democratic Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. This is part of its blackmail strategy. It uses its membership in NATO to give it cover for invasions.
Whereas Russia is critiqued for attacking peaceful Ukraine, and whereas countries like Serbia were similarly slammed in the 1990s for conflicts that led to ethnic cleansing, Turkey can openly expel minorities and invade and occupy Syria apparently without criticism.
This is because countries like Sweden that may have critiqued Ankara in the past now need its support to enter NATO.
Turkey waited until the crisis with NATO to begin talk of a new invasion. It has done this in the past. In 2018, it worked with pro-Ankara voices in the Trump administration to get the White House to open the gates for invasions in Syria.
Turkey began in Afrin, getting backing from Russia – which backs the Syrian regime but also sells Turkey S-400s. So Moscow believed it could get Damascus to sacrifice Afrin, which was controlled by Kurdish groups, in exchange for Russia moving Turkey away from NATO.
This began a bidding war for Turkey’s support between the US and Russia. America was soon tacitly approving an invasion in 2019 with the belief that if Ankara got what it wanted in Syria, then it might shift away from Moscow and help the US on Iran issues.
Instead, Turkey began to threaten Israel, Greece and the UAE – and the White House realized too late that it had enabled and appeased an aggressor.
Turkey's efforts in the past
ANKARA TRIED to press the Biden administration for new invasions in 2021 but the US pushed back then – and is now pushing back again. Turkey has instead gone to Moscow to try to justify invading an area of Syria near Aleppo, where the Syrian regime has influence.
The real control on the ground is generally done via groups linked to the Syrian Democratic Forces. These groups, such as the YPG or PYD tend to be run by Kurds and also have Arab, Christian and other elements. While the Syrian regime ostensibly controls these areas, it outsources control to the Kurdish-led groups.
This creates a patchwork of issues, which Turkey exploits. For instance, it expelled some 160,000 Kurds from Afrin in 2018, many of whom went to Til Rifat. Then it bombed the IDP camps, claiming it was targeting “terrorists."
Civilians in these areas have no ability to protest the endless invasions and wars Ankara has launched. This is because Syrians are only barely recovering from 10 years of civil war. ISIS took over large swaths of Syria. The US helped the Kurds, leading the SDF to defeat the global jihadist organization in 2017.
But Turkey also mobilized Syrian rebel groups, which it co-opted for its own ends, using them to fight Kurds. This strange situation meant that the US helped the SDF take over eastern Syria and defeat ISIS, while Turkey consolidated control with mostly Arab and Turkmen fighters in northwestern Syria.
The Syrian regime and Iran, as well as Russia, benefited from all this, and by 2018, the regime had taken back a swath of the country. Turkish-occupied areas of Syria became home to extremists, as well as many IDPs. The extremists prey on the local people, kidnap and rape them, and force them to pay bribes. The US has targeted ISIS and Al Qaeda in Turkish-controlled areas.
Turkey's current foreign relations
THAT BRINGS us to 2022. Turkey is telling Russia that it wants to invade a new area and that Moscow must accept this to get Ankara’s backing for its war in Ukraine. Turkey tells NATO it must remain quiet or Ankara will keep Finland and Sweden out.
It then mobilizes its lobbyists in Washington to spread stories in US media – and Ankara gets access to publications like the Economist to sell its authoritarian agenda via a “guest essay” by its president this week. It even tries to reach out to Israel and pro-Israel voices so that it won’t get as much push-back.
Turkey knows that Greece is now more favored in Congress and thinks that pro-Israel voices might go to bat for it on the hill. This is despite the fact that the current AKP leadership of Turkey has slammed Israel as a “Nazi” country in the past, and hosted Hamas terrorists.
Turkey sent its foreign minister to Israel recently and hosted Israel’s president. Ankara also outreaches to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others. It also had high level talks with Pakistan recently designed to boost trade.
Now Turkish media is saying that the regime is “getting ready to rid northern Syrian regions of terror elements,” according to Anadolu. “Ankara is preparing to clear northern Syria's Tal Rifat, Manbij in an operation to establish a 30-km security zone south of Turkish border, says Erdogan,” according to the report.
All of this shows how Turkey is able to further its own interests by continuing to take advantage of other countries' need for its support so they can further theirs.

The War in Ukraine and the Western Balkans ...Lessons Learned and Recommendations
Ivana Stradner/Atlantic Council of Montenegro/June 02/2022
Excerpt
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is merely a continuation of the war it began 2014. Although he thought he would be able to seize Kyiv in a matter of days and install a pro-Kremlin regime, he likely miscalculated his military capabilities and the resolve of the Ukrainian army. Putin is now focusing on the next phase of Russia’s war, which focuses on the Donbas region. Given Russia’s military shortcomings in Ukraine, many in the West are already celebrating his failure. However, it is too early to do so, in part because Putin still has a powerful non-military tool at his disposal: information weapons. Russia has intensively used these information weapons since Putin came to power, and it is searching for weak links to distract the West. In particular, Russia is exploiting Moldova, Georgia, and the Western Balkans as potential new avenues to undermine Europe where Russia resorts to its well-known playbook of exploiting existing divisions and exacerbating secessionist tensions. The war in Ukraine also has an impact on the Western Balkans and the West should look for early warnings in the information space, as they are good indicators of Russia’s moves. Understanding these operations is essential in shaping an appropriate response from the West. That response must actively challenge and counter Russia’s information operations in the Western Balkans.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Russia launched its illegal invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which is the continuation of Russia’s war since 2014. The initial Russian offensive consisted of 4 main advances: on Kiev from the North, on Kharkiv from the Northeast, on Donbass from the East, and on Kherson/Mariupol from the South. Russia’s advance on Kiev reached the outskirts of the city, but failed to take the capital city. Russia’s advance on Kharkiv similarly failed to advance beyond the outskirts of the city. Russia’s offensive in Donbass succeeded in reaching Mariupol from the East, but failed to achieve a broader breakout. Russia’s offensive in the South was the most successful, capturing Kherson and reaching and capturing Mariupol from the West.
Russia retreated back to the Belarusian border from its failed assault on Kiev in late March, and retreated from its failed assault of Kharkiv in early May. Russia then redirected those troops to the Donbass front where it began the second phase of its offensive. With much more limited war aims, Russia is currently attempting to seize the entirety of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Despite the increased concentration of Russian forces in the Donbass, Russian troops are making slow and limited gains. A recent breakthrough near Papsna may allow Russian forces to encircle the large Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk. However, even if Russia seizes these cities, they still have to capture the well-defended cities of Slavyansk and Kramotorsk to seize the entirety of the Donbass. If the rest of this war is anything to go by, achieving this task will be a long and bloody affair.
How did we get to this point in the war in Ukraine? Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 should not surprise the West given that Putin has been working on his goals for more than two decades. The West failed to counter Russian hybrid wars and actively challenge Moscow’s information operations. The West has taken numerous defensive measures to prevent Russia from interfering in their elections or manipulating the information space. However, the West did not use offensive information measures to counter Russian information operations globally. The West also failed to constrain Putin’s financial illicit activities and global corruption. The West also naively treated Putin as a partner and allowed him to escalate military tensions and then de-escalate the crisis that he manufactured by positioning Russia as a mediator.
PUTIN’S GOALS AND THE WESTERN BALKANS
Putin described the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, which prevented Russia from remaining one of the world’s great powers. During his two-decade tenure, Putin has worked to restore a multipolar world. Putin also wants to recreate a sphere of influence within the former Soviet Union and control his near-abroad, especially Ukraine and Belarus. Putin has also aimed to break NATO and demonstrate that the alliance will not honor its Article 5 commitment to its members. Although Russia does not have a “grand strategy” for the Western Balkans, the region is Europe’s weak link and it is part of Moscow’s game. Putin has no intention of occupying the Western Balkans. Putin wants to profit from creating the risks of conflict in the Western Balkans and then de-escalating the crisis he created by positioning himself as a mediator.
Given the ethnic and religious differences rife among the Western Balkan states, Putin understands well that a “divide and conquer” strategy works well in the region. Putin’s campaign in the Western Balkans is a case study of the methods it uses to pursue its global objectives. Now that the Kremlin is using those differences to trigger new tensions via its proxies in the Western Balkans, continued peace in the region is no longer a guarantee. Russia’s “modern war” and “nonmilitary methods” playbook is well-known – It includes demonstrations, sabotage or subversion accompanied with the information campaign. This is a prelude to Russia’s mediation process and conducting peacekeeping operations.
Why does Putin continue to push the region to the brink? Because doing so allows him to accomplish three of his chief foreign policy objectives in one fell swoop: to invalidate the collective self-defense of NATO, to weaken the EU; and to distract the West from the war in Ukraine. By successfully escalating tensions in the Western Balkans towards outright violence, Putin can functionally demonstrate that neither NATO, the EU, nor their constituent societies are credible partners for any of the peoples of the region.
*Dr. Ivana Stradner serves as an advisor to FDD’s Barish Center for Media Integrity, where her research focuses on Russia’s information operations and cybersecurity, particularly Russia’s use of advanced forms of hybrid warfare and the threat they pose to the West. Ivana studies Russia’s security strategies and military doctrines to understand how Russia uses information operations for strategic communication. Ivana also analyzes Russian influence in international organizations. Follow her on Twitter @ivanastradner. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Turkey, Terrorists and NATO
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/June 02/2022
Turkey, reportedly on the verge of yet another military incursion into Syria, appears up to other fun and games as well.
The so-called "terrorists" to whom Erdoğan is referring are Kurdish politicians, political activists, and refugees who live in Sweden and Finland. In particular, those who engage in advocacy for political equality and the official recognition of Kurds in Turkey and Syria. The Turkish government wants the two Nordic nations to extradite these individuals to Turkey.
Erdoğan's regime, however, does not see actual jihadists in the region as terrorists and even actively supports them. For instance, news outlets have documented evidence of Erdoğan's government's close relationship with ISIS (the Islamic State).
ISIS collaborators received Turkish citizenship, a leaked official Turkish report showed, detailing how the jihadi group used Turkey to traffic money and obtain supplies.
Turkey is also home to Hamas terrorists.... "Hamas operates its headquarters in Istanbul." — Israel Hayom, February 1, 2022.
Turkey's Islamist allies in Afrin have since committed many crimes against civilians, including Christians, Yazidis and Kurds. These crimes include extortion, detention, abduction, rape, torture and murder.
For NATO's well-being, Turkey's threats, aggression and blackmail must not be allowed.
Turkey is reportedly on the verge of yet another military incursion into Syria, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is blocking Sweden and Finland from NATO membership, referring to Kurdish politicians, political activists and refugees who live in Sweden and Finland as "terrorists." Meanwhile, Erdoğan's regime does not see actual jihadists in the region as terrorists and even actively supports them. Media outlets have documented evidence of the Turkish government's close relationship with ISIS. Pictured: Turkey-backed jihadists in Saraqib, northwestern Syria, on February 27, 2020. (Photo by Bakr Alkasem/AFP via Getty Images)
Turkey, reportedly on the verge of yet another military incursion into Syria, appears up to other fun and games as well.
While Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains ongoing, two Nordic nations have applied for NATO membership: Sweden and Finland.
However, one NATO member, Turkey, said it is opposed to their NATO membership based on their alleged support of "terrorism". On May 25, delegations from Sweden and Finland arrived in Ankara, seeking to address Turkish objections to their joining the military alliance.
"Turkey could not have a positive view on Sweden and Finland's NATO membership so long as these countries did not show that they would be in solidarity with Turkey concerning fundamental issues, combatting terrorism in particular," Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
In a telephone call with Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson on May 21, Erdoğan had said that "the political, financial and weapon support Sweden had been providing to terrorist organizations should be brought to an end."
Erdoğan added that "Turkey expected Sweden to take concrete and serious steps that showed it shared Turkey's concerns over PKK terrorist organization and its extensions in Syria and Iraq."
Erdoğan also spoke by phone with Finland's President Sauli Niinistö and said that "a mentality that disregarded terrorist organizations which posed a threat to an ally within NATO would not comply with the spirit of alliance and friendship."
"Our approach to NATO's enlargement," Erdoğan announced on May 23, "originates from our principled stance on combatting terrorism."
The so-called "terrorists" to whom Erdoğan is referring are Kurdish politicians, political activists, and refugees who live in Sweden and Finland. In particular, those who engage in advocacy for political equality and the official recognition of Kurds in Turkey and Syria. The Turkish government wants the two Nordic nations to extradite these individuals to Turkey.
Sweden and Finland also have shown no opposition to Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq, who are US allies and have effectively fought against ISIS. Erdoğan's regime nevertheless labels these fighters as "terrorists" and wants the West to combat them.
Many citizens of Turkey have also sought political asylum in Sweden and Finland since Erdoğan's government began cracking down on the actual (as well as supposed supporters) of Fethullah Gülen, a Muslim former ally of Erdoğan who lives in the US, for allegedly organizing the 2016 coup attempt. Turkey has also declared so-called Gülenists as "terrorists" and asked these two governments for their extradition as well. Turkish media reported on May 16 that, according to the Justice Ministry, "Sweden and Finland rejected Turkey's request for the extradition of people with links to the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] and Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ)."
Erdoğan's regime, however, does not see actual jihadists in the region as terrorists and even actively supports them. For instance, news outlets have documented evidence of Erdoğan's government's close relationship with ISIS (the Islamic State). This includes their use of Turkish territory to travel to Iraq or Syria and having trade relations with Turkey. On June 29, 2016, The New York Times reported:
"From the start of the Islamic State's rise through the chaos of the Syrian war, Turkey has played a central, if complicated, role in the group's story. For years, it served as a rear base, transit hub and shopping bazaar for the Islamic State.
"The centrality of Turkey for foreign volunteers flocking to the Islamic State is evident in court documents and intelligence records. Dozens of young men and women were arrested by the F.B.I. in the United States and by officials in Western Europe after they booked flights to Istanbul. Because so many of the group's foreign fighters passed through Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, the destination itself became synonymous with intent to join ISIS.
"By 2015, the group was advising recruits to book round-trip tickets to beach resorts in southern Turkey instead, and to be sure to spend a few days pretending to be a tourist as a ruse."
In a 2020 essay, the historian Professor Mordechai Kedar detailed Turkey's cooperation with ISIS:
"The ability of ISIS to become a functioning state so quickly is largely due to its relationship with President Erdoğan in Turkey.
"ISIS has had strong connections to Turkey over the years, whether through its oil industry or through its willingness to shield wanted members of the Muslim Brotherhood. This "neighborly" relationship was essential to ISIS's success, and it continues to be reflected in Turkish decision-making."
Turkish contributions to ISIS, Kedar wrote, were most apparent in areas such as finances, volunteers and tactics:
"In 2014, it was reported that ISIS had taken over oil fields in Iraq and Syria and produced large quantities of crude oil to sell, consolidating its grip on oil supplies in the region. They are thought to have transported the oil to Turkey in tankers, whereupon Turkey sold the oil to other countries as if it were from Iraq and Syria and shared some of the proceeds with ISIS.
"Thousands of Muslim volunteers who identified with the goals and methods of ISIS went to the Islamic State from Muslim countries, Europe, America, Africa, Australia, and even Israel. The vast majority arrived legally in Turkey and went from there to Syria and Iraq. The Turkish authorities, who were aware that these people were passing through Turkey on their way to join ISIS, did nothing to stop it.
"It has been widely reported that Turkey's Intelligence Agency illegally dispatched arms to Syrian jihadists. In August 2014, an ISIS commander told the Washington Post: 'Most of the fighters who joined us at the beginning of the war came via Turkey, as did our equipment and supplies.'"
Meanwhile, ISIS collaborators received Turkish citizenship, a leaked official Turkish report showed, detailing how the jihadi group used Turkey to traffic money and obtain supplies.
Turkey is also home to Hamas terrorists. According to news reports from 2020, Turkey granted citizenship to senior Hamas operatives. An Israeli news report published in January 2022 noted:
"Hamas operates its headquarters in Istanbul, recruiting Arab Israelis and Palestinian Arabs for intelligence work and to carry out terrorist attacks. Senior Hamas member Salah al-Arouri, whom Turkey supposedly deported at Israel's request, continues to manage his people there and even organize training and target practice in Turkey. The headquarters also oversees the development of Hamas' maritime and rocket capabilities, as well as its cyberwarfare, development of new weapons, and the transfer of Iranian money."
The government of Turkey also supports jihadists in Syria. Turkey has occupied parts of northern Syria, including Afrin and Idlib, through local jihadist groups. The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) -- which forms an integral part of the US-led fight against ISIS but which the Turkish government lists as a "terrorist organization" -- took control of Afrin after Syrian government forces withdrew from the city in 2012. A de facto autonomous Kurdish rule was then declared. In 2015, a US ally group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is a member, was formed.
Turkey has been targeting the US allies against ISIS through military incursions such as the 2018 "Operation Olive Branch" and 2019 "Operation Peace Spring." After "Operation Peace Spring," Sweden imposed restrictions on dealings with Turkey's defense industry. Erdoğan told the Swedish PM Andersson that if Sweden is to become a NATO member, those restrictions "should" be lifted.
Turkey's "Operation Olive Branch" against Afrin began on January 20, 2018, and concluded on March 18, 2018, with the defeat of the YPG at the hands of the Turkish military and its Islamist auxiliaries. Turkey's Islamist allies in Afrin have since committed many crimes against civilians, including Christians, Yazidis and Kurds. These crimes include extortion, detention, abduction, rape, torture and murder. Investigative journalist Jonathan Spyer has documented some of these crimes. "[US] State Department, UN and NGO reports cite a pattern of grave human rights violations, assaults and targeting of women," he wrote.
The US State Department's "2020 Country Report on Human Rights Practices: Syria" stated:
"ISIS and armed opposition forces such as the Turkish-backed SNA [Syrian National Army], reportedly arrested, detained, tortured, killed, and otherwise abused numerous Kurdish activists and individuals as well as members of the SDF during the year. The COI [Country of Origin Information] reported a consistent, discernible pattern of abuses by SNA forces against Kurdish residents in Afrin and Ras al-Ayn, including "[c]ases of detentions, killings, beatings, and abductions, in addition to widespread looting and appropriation of civilian homes.
"The COI, STJ [Syrians for Truth and Justice], the Violations Documentation Center (VDC), and other monitors documented a trend of TSO [the Turkey-supported opposition] kidnappings of women in Afrin, where some women remained missing for years."
Meanwhile, Turkey is reported to be the power behind Al-Qaeda affiliates in Idlib such as the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant"). According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
"In May 2018, the group [HTS] was added to the State Department's existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017."
A 2021 study by the Middle East Institute details how Turkey and HTS are co-occupying and exploiting parts of northwest Syria:
"The most significant shift in HTS economic policy occurred in July 2017, when the group took over the Bab al-Hawa crossing, one of the biggest sources of revenue in NW [north-west] Syria and a particularly strategic acquisition in terms of the relationship with Turkey."
In January 2018, the Watad Petroleum Company was formed in HTS-occupied northwest Syria and granted exclusive rights to import oil derivatives and gas from Turkey into the area. In June 2020, HTS began replacing the Syrian pound with the Turkish lira (TL), indexing the prices of goods to the lira. The Turkish government, through its massive economic support to the group, thereby became a lifeline for the jihadist HTS.
Meanwhile, on April 25, the Turkish media reported that Mehmet Salih Kölge -- a mass murderer and member of the Turkish Hezbollah -- has been released from prison. Between 1999 and 2001, Kölge, whose trial lasted for six years, had participated in interrogations using torture. Turkey's Court of Cassation stated in its ruling that he had been responsible for killing 91 citizens in 157 armed activities and given orders for operations that caused injuries to 66 people.
Kölge, who had previously been sentenced to aggravated life imprisonment, had also been granted release from prison earlier, before the local elections on March 31, 2019.
On May 13, the Turkish media reported that Turkey had additionally released from prison three more murderers, previously sentenced to aggravated life imprisonment for involvement in killing 28 people, wounding 14, kidnapping 1 and burning 4 vehicles in 48 armed actions on behalf of Turkish Hezbollah.
Currently, Turkey's military invasion of Iraq and its Kurdistan Region, which Turkey has named "Operation Claw-Lock", has escalated. Yazidis, Kurds, and Assyrians are all being seriously affected by Turkey's military actions in Iraq. The media report that at least five people were killed and more injured in two separate Turkish air strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan on May 21, one of which targeted a UN-administered refugee camp in Makhmour.
Repeated attacks by Turkish war planes in Iraq -- including the Yazidi homeland of Sinjar -- have prevented Yazidis who were forcibly displaced by ISIS in 2014 from returning home. According to a 2021 report by the Assyrian Policy Institute:
"The [Turkish] airborne attacks often occur in close proximity to areas mainly inhabited by Assyrian, Yazidi, and/or Kurdish civilians, posing significant risks including: endangerment of civilian life, displacement, traumatization, destruction of property, and agricultural lands, and threats to livelihoods. "
Meanwhile, the Turkish government keeps threatening Greece, another NATO member, over Greek islands in the Aegean. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on May 26 that Greece must withdraw its military from its Aegean islands. "We are not bluffing. If Athens does not comply, we will take matters further," Cavusoglu said, adding that Ankara is prepared to challenge Greek sovereignty over the islands.
Although NATO's official website claims that NATO "promotes democratic values" and "is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes," for decades, the Turkish government's actions have only brought death and destruction to countless people, both within the country and outside it. For NATO's well-being, Turkey's threats, aggression and blackmail must not be allowed.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute.
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Justice… A Firebird
Hussam Itani/Asharq Al-Awsat/June/2022
The word “justice” was heard several times during the newly elected Lebanese Parliament’s first session, immediately followed by the word “annulled” being yelled out by the Speaker of the Parliament representing the ruling coalition majority.
It is as though the current government is unable to hear words such as “justice for victims of the Beirut explosion”, as some of the accused of being responsible for their murder, injury, and displacement, were sitting among their peers in Parliament. They cannot hear “justice for Lokman Slim” either, as the party accused of his assassination is well represented in Parliament, or “justice for the depositors” who lost their savings due to the complicity of the authorities, Parliament, and the banks.
Social media users swiftly pointed to the demand for” justice” and its imminent annulment. In the end, the newly elected Parliament, with 13 new deputies belonging to the bloc “17 October revolution”, is not yet out of the hands of those responsible for leading Lebanon into the abyss and is hindering all efforts at a solution. The same applies to the executive and judicial branches, which orbit around the “traditional ruling blocs.”
It was no coincidence that those who supported October 17 and followers of traditional parties came together, each from a different standpoint, and harshly criticized the “change deputies.” Unfortunately for the latter, the hopes being pinned on them are commensurate with the scale of destruction that we have recently seen in Lebanon. While their rivals have all the state tools, funds, arms, and media outlets they need, these deputies have nothing but an audience that demands to have their catastrophes resolved.
As for justice, a term that was repeated during the new Lebanese Parliament’s first session, it is more like the firebird of Slavic mythology. Its ability to radiate light and its dazzling beauty are only commensurate to the degree of difficulty of reaching it and entrapping it in a cage. The most one could hope for is managing to get a feather from the wing of a firebird to light the darkness of his home and his life.
This sought-after but paralyzed justice would appear increasingly elusive the more we pursued it. Attributing super powers to the new deputies does not help them or their voters, nor do the attempts to reinvigorate the political process. The fact that amid the economic collapse, we have powerful forces is determined to defend the regime, even if that means paving this path with violence, assassination and naked repression, leaves little room for these representatives to begin implementing the programs and ideas they pushed for, most of which are delusional. The regime, in contrast, is rooted in the structure of Lebanese society, its sects, clans, and social classes. It is aware of the threats posed by voices questioning partial identities. Some perhaps believe that what has happened in Lebanon since the legislative elections, all the way up to the parliament session, was nothing more than the noisy bickering over the causes of their country’s demise, demonstrating that those taking part in this theater are too weak to fix the situation, and are, in fact, “tokens” that the ruling group is exploiting to market to foreign powers in Lebanon.
It is not unreasonable to believe that this sideshow obscures another grave threat to Lebanon and the region, one that has been voiced during the recent speeches of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, the specter of an imminent regional war based on a misguided bet on Lebanon’s oil and gas resources, which we still need to cross a long and thorny road to exploit.
The Secretary-General, addressing those who celebrated the election of 13 deputies pushing for change, told them what they do not want to hear: There is no escape from this noose tied on your neck. We promise you nothing but wars, “victories,” and blood, as well as more civil strife, the disintegration of the state, and the erosion of society. The pretexts for the next wars have already been formulated. If the argument about protecting Lebanon’s oil wealth at sea does not work, then there is nothing wrong with waging war for any other reason.
So far, despite the good intentions and loud but ineffective voices for change in Parliament, the kind of political bloc needed to dismantle the ruling clique and its networks, from banks to armed militias, has not yet been formed. Destruction is still the only item on the agenda of the regime’s owners and protectors. Lebanon has not developed an ability to fight its diseases. Meanwhile, the feuds from among the figures of this regime and its clients continue, and politicians addicted to gambling with what they do not have and continue to recalibrate according to tactical demands.
The dream of granting the victims of crime committed by these corrupt, violent, and unaccountable groups justice is far from our grasp, a firebird. But it seems inevitable to run after it in hope that a feather of hope drops from the bird’s wing.

How Worried Should You Be About Monkeypox?
Spencer Bokat-Lindell/Asharq Al-Awsat/June/2022
On May 22, when President Biden described the global outbreak of monkeypox, a close but less lethal relative of smallpox, as a phenomenon that “everybody should be concerned about,” 109 cases had been confirmed in 14 countries outside those where the virus typically circulates, including the United States. By May 31, those numbers had grown to just over 600 confirmed cases in 26 countries. The World Health Organization, choosing an adjective less clarifying than one might wish, described the outbreak’s risk to global public health as “moderate.” But by one definition that the W.H.O. used to use, the former Times science reporter Donald McNeil Jr. argues, “monkeypox already is a pandemic.”How does the threat of monkeypox differ from that of the coronavirus, which questions about it still need answering, and what should be done now to contain it? Here’s what people are saying.
What scientists think they know
First discovered in laboratory monkeys in 1958, monkeypox had until recently caused fewer than 19,000 cases in humans since 1970, primarily in Central and West Africa. In past outbreaks, people often caught the virus by coming into close contact with infected rodents.
What makes this outbreak different is that there appears to be transmission occurring between people with no history of travel to endemic regions nor any obvious contact with people or animals known to be infected, suggesting community spread that is going undetected.
What monkeypox looks like: Monkeypox symptoms appear on average within seven to 14 days of exposure, but can take up to three weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The disease typically begins with a fever, headache, muscle aches, back pain, chills, exhaustion and swollen lymph nodes. Within one to three days of symptom onset, patients develop rashes that progress into painful lesions and pustules lasting roughly two to four weeks before they scab over and fall off.
While one type of monkeypox has been observed to have a case fatality rate as high as 10.6 percent, the type in global circulation now is the less lethal one, with a case fatality rate closer to 1 percent to 3.6 percent. As Ed Yong points out in The Atlantic, those rates were found in largely poor, rural populations and would most likely be lower in higher-resource settings. As Covid has underscored, though, an illness doesn’t have to be fatal to be destructive to individual and public health.
How monkeypox differs from Covid: Unlike the coronavirus, whose genome consists of single-stranded RNA, monkeypox is a double-stranded DNA virus. DNA viruses tend to be larger and more complex, and they have conventionally been thought to evolve much more slowly.
In addition to having a longer incubation period than the coronavirus, monkeypox — at least as observed in past outbreaks — seems significantly less contagious than recent coronavirus variants, but just how contagious this type of monkeypox is has not been determined.
Public health officials do not believe that people transmit the virus without displaying symptoms, according to Jennifer McQuiston, deputy director of the C.D.C.’s Division of High Consequence Pathogens and Pathology. Still, she said, more research on the question is needed.
How monkeypox is treated: Although there are several treatments for smallpox that could prove effective at managing monkeypox, none have been thoroughly studied for that purpose in humans. There are, however, two vaccines for smallpox that provide cross-protection, including one with much less severe side effects that was approved in the United States in 2019. (Older people who were inoculated may still be immune.) Unlike the coronavirus vaccines, smallpox vaccines can prevent the onset of disease if administered within four days of infection.
Neither vaccine is widely available to the public, though some European countries are recommending vaccination for people with direct exposure. At least four US states are also offering vaccines to at-risk contacts; cases have been reported in nine.
What we don’t know
Why now? Given that monkeypox has been around for decades, scientists are racing to determine what’s behind its newly global spread: some combination of human behavioral change and bad luck or, potentially more concerning, viral evolution.
Answering that question is complicated by the size of the monkeypox genome, which makes it harder to analyze than the coronavirus: As Max Kozlov reports in Nature, researchers are still trying to pin down which genes are responsible for the fatality-rate discrepancy between the two types of monkeypox more than 17 years after its discovery. Research has also been hobbled by a lack of interest and funding despite warnings of monkeypox’s growing epidemic potential.
A preliminary sequencing suggests that the virus now in circulation has undergone 47 nucleotide changes since about 2018, far more than the expected rate of one to two per year. Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, said on Twitter that it’s “unclear” whether “there’s any genetic component that would facilitate human-to-human transmission of the current outbreak viruses compared to previous human outbreaks of monkeypox, but these ~47 mutations suggest at least potential for this to be the case.”
Other explanations point to the resurgence in air travel this year, as well as to the longer-term decline in vaccination for smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980. As one recent journal article documented, both the number of cases and the median age of patients have increased over the decades, consistent with the vaccine-discontinuation thesis.“Maybe a random series of mutations in the last few months set this all off,” Jo Walker, a researcher at the Yale School of Public Health, told Wired. “Or maybe our luck ran out, and it took until now for a monkeypox case to make its way to a major population center, get on an airplane and kick-start an outbreak without hitting a dead end.”
Is monkeypox sexually transmitted? A majority of confirmed cases in this outbreak so far have been identified in men who have sex with men, according to the World Health Organization, potentially tracing back to a Pride event in the Canary Islands and a sauna in Madrid.
Many experts have cautioned against speculation that the virus is transmitting primarily through semen or anal sex, though: As Yong points out, sex involves prolonged close contact, which is how the virus normally spreads. As the W.H.O. suggests, the disproportionate number of confirmed cases among men who have sex with men could reflect greater contact between that demographic and sexual health care services in countries that reported cases. It could also be incidental. Is it airborne? Monkeypox is known to spread through skin-to-skin contact, contaminated materials like clothing and bedding, and respiratory droplets, but whether it can linger in the air remains unclear. Luis Sigal, an expert in poxviruses at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia, told The Times that because monkeypox is larger and heavier than the coronavirus, it would not be able to travel as far in the air. But Linsey Marr, an expert in airborne viral transmission, disputed that theory on Twitter. “I’ve seen a lot of people writing as if everything we know about monkeypox is definitive and finalized, but the reality is that it is still a rare zoonotic infection,” Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, a physician at Emory University, told Yong. “We can’t use what happened with previous monkeypox outbreaks to make sweeping statements. If we’ve learned anything from Covid, it’s to have humility.”
What needs to be done
Public health officials and others seem broadly optimistic that the current outbreak can be halted in a way that the coronavirus pandemic now cannot be. “We have the pharmacological tools, in combination with the classic isolation and quarantine procedures that have helped contain monkeypox outbreaks in the past,” Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan, told The Times. “We can contain it again.”A necessary first step is to make testing for the disease much more widely available, the public health experts James Krellenstein, Joseph Osmundson and Keletso Makofane argue in The Times. In the United States at the moment, monkeypox can be tested for only through a cumbersome process that runs through the C.D.C. headquarters in Atlanta.
“We cannot stop transmission of a disease we can’t see,” the authors write. “Even if widespread testing is ultimately not needed, the cost of being prepared is low, and the risk of being caught off guard is high.”
Particularly as Pride month begins in the United States, the authors also argue that health officials should be making bolder interventions to raise awareness of the disease and expand vaccine availability among men who have sex with men, much as was done to contain a bacterial meningitis outbreak in New York City a decade ago. The historian Jim Downs agrees: By emphasizing that monkeypox is not a gay disease — a much-needed correction to the stigmatizing rhetoric that defined the early years of the AIDS crisis — “health agencies and news outlets are putting gay men at risk unless they prioritize them for interventions such as public-awareness campaigns, vaccines, and tests,” he argues in The Atlantic. Not everyone is confident that the threat of monkeypox will recede. Even if the current outbreak is contained, Kozlov of Nature notes that virologists are concerned that the virus will find new reservoirs in animals, increasing the probability of its being transmitted to people again and again around the world. That is a risk that the European C.D.C. has assessed as “very low,” but it’s one that some countries seem to be preparing for: Bavarian Nordic, the manufacturer of the smallpox vaccine that the United States approved in 2019, told Politico that it is receiving calls from “many, many countries” seeking to purchase its shot.

Congressional approval vital if new Iran deal is to succeed
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 02/ 2022
Although the ongoing negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal involve seven parties — China, Russia, the UK, France, the US, Iran and Germany — the two essential players in the talks are America and the Islamic Republic.
The Biden administration ought to be cognizant of the fact that what the Iranian regime really cares about is for the US government to lift its sanctions on Tehran’s energy, banking, and shipping sectors, as well as on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Quds Force.
In other words, as long as the US is not on board with the nuclear deal, the stances of the other parties do not really matter to Iran to a significant degree. After all, the US plays a key role in the global financial system.
If Washington’s sanctions on the Islamic Republic remain in place, the Iranian regime cannot profit from the benefits of any new nuclear deal due to the fact that many corporations and companies will not be willing to trade or deal with Tehran for fear of repercussions. These include jeopardizing their business in the US, risking their access to major global financial institutions and possibly even being sanctioned by the US Department of Justice.
It is worth noting that the US equity market capitalization is about 50 times larger than that of the Islamic Republic. While Iran’s equity market is believed to be worth about $1 trillion, the US’ value is nearly $49 trillion, representing some 41 percent of the global equity market cap.
As a result, the Biden administration should be aware that the ball is in Washington’s court, not Iran’s. If the White House truly wants to reach a permanent and effective nuclear deal with the Iranian government, which will curb its nuclear advancement and address the threat that the regime poses to the Middle East, it should seek the approval of Congress.
In addition, the US should refrain from lifting any sanctions on Tehran that are not linked to its nuclear program, such as those related to its human rights violations, ballistic missile program, terrorism, and the IRGC and Quds Force.
Although it has been reported that the Biden administration will not be removing the IRGC from the US’ list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations after all, Iran envoy Robert Malley unfortunately suggested during a Senate hearing last week that the IRGC’s removal from the terrorist list was not totally off the table. He said: “We’d made clear to Iran that if they wanted any concession on something that was unrelated to the JCPOA — like the FTO designation — we needed something reciprocal from them that would address our concerns.” But he declined to clarify what the administration is asking for from the Iranian regime in order to delist the IRGC.
Malley did suggest that the Biden administration would submit a final draft of the nuclear deal to Congress for review. Nevertheless, this is not adequate, as the White House ought to make it clear to US lawmakers, as well as the Iranian leaders, that it will not forge ahead with any nuclear deal until Congress officially approves it. If we recall, the Obama administration said that Congress would get a chance to review the original 2015 nuclear deal, but Barack Obama ultimately went ahead and struck a deal with the Iranian regime without approval from the Capitol.
The US should also refrain from lifting any sanctions on Tehran that are not linked to its nuclear program.
The JCPOA was unfortunately finalized through an executive order, not through congressional approval, allowing Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, to rescind it without consulting lawmakers. If the same happens this time, it will most likely fall apart again. In March, 49 US senators warned in a joint statement: “By every indication, the Biden administration appears to have given away the store. The administration appears to have agreed to lift sanctions that were not even placed on Iran for its nuclear activities in the first place, but instead because of its ongoing support for terrorism and its gross abuses of human rights… A major agreement that does not have strong bipartisan support in Congress will not survive.”
If Biden wants any updated nuclear deal with Iran to survive, he must put it up for approval in Congress.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Iranian regime should listen to its people for once
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 02/ 2022
Did COVID-19 save the Iranian regime? One cannot help but ask, even though we know we cannot rewrite history. Clearly, we cannot learn from it either. In 2019, the Iranian regime faced the most serious protests since its accession to power in 1979. And, most importantly, these protests were gaining in intensity despite the severe repression.
The situation was escalating, only for the COVID-19 pandemic, with its lockdowns across the world, to bring the protests to a complete stop. Worse, it is also said that the security services took advantage of the situation to pick up leading protesters from their homes and arrest them. The key point is that 2019 was the first time chants were heard nationwide that directly attacked Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It was during this time that people throughout Iran shouted that they no longer wanted their wealth to be given away to the likes of Hezbollah but that it should stay and be invested in Iran, for the people of Iran. This is no doubt a rightful demand.
It is also clear that the intensity of the slogans and the masses was even greater than the protests of 2009, which followed that year’s contested presidential election. The Green Revolution was essentially a challenge arising from within the existing political system. In November 2019, that was not the case, and the people of Iran were asking for change. Obviously, in both cases, the regime answered in the only way it knows how: With extreme violence and repression.
If we remember November 2019, the spark that ignited the protests was a severe increase in the price of fuel. I strongly believe that it was not the increase itself that angered and frustrated the people of Iran, but that their wealth had been distributed to foreign groups while their country was left to decay. A beautiful country, rich in natural resources, had been destroyed by the regime and the people knew it.
Today, as we emerge from the pandemic, inflation is hitting the entire world. And, as food prices increase, the people of Iran are taking to the streets once again. This is simply because they know they could be suffering less if it were not for the money the regime spends on militias and negative interference all across the Middle East. The people of Iran know their country has resources and wealth. And they know that these have been distributed to proxies as part of a lost expansionist agenda. They have seen, for many years, billions going to Hassan Nasrallah, the Houthis and Bashar Assad, and on other expansionist policies; all this while they cannot even afford to buy the bare necessities. And now, to make things worse, their infrastructure is crumbling.
This is exactly why the collapse of a residential building in Abadan added to the people’s frustration and increased the intensity of the protests. This incident is, in short, symbolic of the country the regime has created. It could have happened anywhere in the world, but in Iran it resonates with what ordinary Iranians perceive as the regime’s carelessness and neglect of its own people. It is a symbol of a regime more focused on sending support to foreign fighters than caring for the well-being of its own people (and certain regions are also particularly punished).
All this so Hezbollah can build its underground networks and stock missiles while Iranians lose their lives. It is, therefore, not a surprise that there are now dissenting chants addressed directly to Khamenei. Even his envoy was shouted down by people refusing his condolences. But the protests are once again being severely repressed.
And so, the first constant in Iran’s protests is the repression and the second is the silence of the US and the wider West. It is kind of interesting how things work: No messages of support to the protesters, no demand for investigations, no red lines. Simply silence. It is the privilege of a so-called enemy in order to maintain a status quo for any reason needed. No action should be perceived as hostile. This was the case in 2009 during the Green Revolution. President Barack Obama stated that he respected the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic. It was also the case in 2020, before the COVID-19 lockdowns.
They know they could be suffering less if it were not for the money the regime spends on militias and negative interference all across the Middle East.
And now, we are again yet to hear the West condemn the regime’s violence. The undeclared reason is that its leaders do not want to give an excuse to Tehran to accuse the protesters of being Western tools. In reality, this comforts the regime over its violence and marginalizes protesters. The regime understands this silence to be a sign of recognition and uses it to project power.
Yet, as we are facing many global and regional challenges, the Iranian regime should ask itself: All this is for what? The answer lies in the empty shelves and crumbling buildings — all this destruction and isolation is for worse than nothing. It is time for the regime in Tehran to understand it will never be able to take over Lebanon, it will never be able to take over Syria, it will never be able to take over Iraq and it will never be able to take over Yemen. More importantly, it will never rule over or dictate its rules to the Middle East. It is time for the regime to listen to its people and its own history.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.