English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 15/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-31: “A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here!”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 14-15/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 6811 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
U.S. tells Lebanon not to fear sanctions over energy supply plans, PM's office says
Shea Hands Miqati Letter from U.S. Treasury
Dialogue Boycotters Hit Back at Aoun, Call Him ‘Disruption Expert’
President Aoun briefed by Minister Boushekian on industrial situation, outcome of Iraq visit
Mikati meets US ambassador, tackles developments with UN’s Rushdi
Hariri's Advisor Accuses FPM of Paranoia, Says Presidency 'Godfather of Disruption'
Berri briefed by Minister Boushekian on outcome of Iraq visit, meets Swiss ambassador, Beirut Governor
Jumblatt calls on Cabinet to meet without any prior conditions to get out of deadly impasse
US Embassy denies discussing issues involving Lebanese Central Bank with Berri
Lira Makes Major Recovery on Black Market after BDL Measures
Salameh: BDL to Continue Allowing Banks to Buy Dollars at Sayrafa Rate
Students Struggle as Lebanon Crisis Cripples University Sector
Trying to maintain a normal life despite the occupation of the country is an act of resistance by itself./Jean-Marie Kassab/January 14/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 14-15/2022
In Blow to Biden, Supreme Court Blocks Vaccine Mandate for Businesses
Many unresolved issues remain in Iran nuclear talks: Source
Iran Reports launching Solid-Fuel Satellite Rocket into Space
NATO Will Not Allow Russia to Blackmail the Alliance, Says Germany
Blinken says 'a few weeks' left for Iran to resume nuclear compliance
Republicans Call on Biden to Withdraw from ‘Farcical’ Negotiations with Iran
US: Smuggled Iranian Weapons to Houthis a Flagrant Violation of Int'l Law
US Grants South Korea an Iran Sanctions Exemption
Explosion Hits Building of Iraq Parliament Speaker’s Party, 2 Wounded
4 Rockets Target U.S. Embassy in Baghdad
Sadr's Push to Sideline Iran-Backed Iraqi Factions Risks Clash
Supreme Court Suspends Iraq Parliament
Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh to Host COP27 in November 2022
SOHR: Russian Strikes in Syria Kill 11 ISIS Militants
Moroccan FM Holds Talks with de Mistura in Rabat
Turkey, Armenia to Hold Talks on Normalizing Ties

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 14-15/2022
China: Buying Up Europe/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 14, 2022
Egypt weighs role as mediator in Sudan crisis/Mohamed Saied/Al-Monitor/January 14, 2022
USA: Reliving the Nightmare of a Shocking Christmas Carnage Every Day/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/January 14, 2022
Kazakhstan: Echoes of the Autumn of Sorrows/Amir TaheriAsharq Al-Awsat/January 14/2022
Putin Launches an Unwelcome Cold War Reboot/Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/January, 14/2022
Netflix’s ‘Don’t Look Up’ Is a Lesson in Climate Messaging/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/January, 14/2022
China’s interests have moved from Africa to other regions ripe for trade/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/January 14/22

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 14-15/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 6811 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
NNA/January 14/2022 
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced on Friday the registration of 6811 new infections with the Coronavirus, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 808,612.
The report added that 15 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

U.S. tells Lebanon not to fear sanctions over energy supply plans, PM's office says
Reuters/January 14/2022
The U.S. ambassador to Lebanon told the Lebanese government it should not fear a U.S. sanctions law over its plans to receive energy supplies from the region, the office of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Friday. Lebanon, which is grappling with a deep financial crisis, is seeking to import energy from fellow Arab states to ease an acute power shortage. However, supplies would have to transit Syria, which is subject to a U.S. sanctions law. U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea handed Mikati a letter from the U.S. Treasury Department "to answer some of the concerns the Lebanese authorities had regarding regional energy agreements that the United States helped facilitate between Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt," the statement from the prime minister's office said. Under a plan agreed between Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Syria in September, Egyptian gas would be piped to Lebanon via Jordan and Syria to help boost Lebanon's power output, which now delivers a few hours a day of electricity at best. The plan, which has U.S. backing, aims to pump the gas through an Arab pipeline established about 20 years ago. However, the plan has been complicated by U.S. sanctions on the Syrian government, under President Bashar al-Assad, prompting Lebanese officials to ask Washington to grant an exemption. Damascus has said it was ready to cooperate.

Shea Hands Miqati Letter from U.S. Treasury
Naharnet/January 14/2022
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea on Friday met with Prime Minister Najib Miqati and conveyed to him “an official written communication from the U.S. Department of the Treasury” that she said “answers to some of the concerns that the (Lebanese) authorities have” regarding regional energy deals.
”They wanted to make sure that in pursuing the regional energy deals that the United States has been helping to facilitate between Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan, that there will be no concerns with U.S. sanctions legislation,” Shea said after the talks. “This letter that was delivered represents forward momentum and important milestone as we continue to make progress to bring safer, cleaner, more reliable energy solutions to help address the energy crisis that the Lebanese people have been experiencing,” the ambassador added. In late December, Lebanon's energy minister launched two projects in the country's north to facilitate the flow of natural gas from Egypt. The move aims to improve electricity production and expand the country's tanks to increase oil reserves. The revival of the Arab Gas Pipeline to deliver Egyptian gas to Lebanon comes as the small country is reeling from a crippling electricity crisis. The pipeline has been out of service in Lebanon since before Syria's 10-year conflict began in 2011. Minister Walid Fayad said Egypt's Technical Gas Services would begin renovation work on the pipeline inside Lebanon and work should be done in a little more than two months.
Egypt has agreed to supply Lebanon with natural gas to its power plants through Jordan and Syria. Syrian experts have finished work inside the war-torn country. The Syrian government is under U.S. and Western sanctions for its role in the war. Despite the sanctions, the U.S. has supported the resumption of natural gas flow from Egypt to Lebanon via Syria. Fayyad told The Associated Press during a tour of an oil facility that U.S. officials who have visited Lebanon said the contract to bring gas from Egypt will not be targeted by sanctions because "no cash is going from any side to Syria." He added that Egyptian officials are in contact with the Americans to make sure that the contract does not violate the sanctions. Fayyad said about 650 million cubic meters (22.95 billion cubic feet) of gas will be brought to Lebanon through the pipeline annually to the Deir Ammar power station in the north. He said the amount will lead to the production of 450 megawatts of electricity adding three to four hours of electricity supplies a day. He said the cost will be about 7.5 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour, "which is cheaper than any production costs we have."In 2019, Lebanon signed a deal with Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft, to upgrade and operate storage installations in Tripoli. The deal made Rosneft manage storage operations. Fayad said Roseneft will rehabilitate and build tanks that can fit 150,000 cubic meters (5.29 million cubic feet) of strategic storage and at a later stage it can reach 250,000 cubic meters (8.82 million cubic feet). Eventually it will fit 400,000 cubic meters (14.1 million cubic feet). He said the works will begin with the renovation of three tanks and building three new ones as well adding that the project is expected to take about 18 months.

Dialogue Boycotters Hit Back at Aoun, Call Him ‘Disruption Expert’
Naharnet/January 14/2022
Democratic Gathering Bloc MP Hadi Abou El-Hassan, said that President Michel Aoun instead of “lecturing” the dialogue boycotters, should have addressed “his ally,” which is “the main party disrupting the country.”He added that “the one who had disrupted the country for 9 years out of his 16 years of management, shouldn’t accuse people of arrogance and of disrupting dialogue.”Aoun on Thursday had lashed out at those who announced their boycott of his proposed national dialogue conference, holding them responsible for the continued paralysis of the country, which triggered the dialogue boycotters to strike back accusing the FPM and its ally Hizbullah of disrupting the country. The media advisor of ex-PM Saad Hariri said that the presidency is "the godfather of disruption" and that it had disrupted the government for years. Lebanese Forces MP Anis Nassar joined the Progressive Socialist Party and al-Mustaqbal Movement in hitting back at Aoun. He told al-Anbaa news portal that the President is “an expert in disruption,” as he had in the past disrupted the government for six months "to make his son-in-law Jebran Bassil a minister." He added that Aoun had disrupted the presidential elections for two years and a half to secure his appointment as a president, and had also prevented the government from making reforms after the elections because of a bickering between Bassil and the Prime Minister at the time. Nassar went on to say that “the call for dialogue came too late, now that the country is at its last breath.”

President Aoun briefed by Minister Boushekian on industrial situation, outcome of Iraq visit
NNA/January 14/2022
Industry Minister George Boushekian stressed the gradual improvement of industrial, economic and production prospects in Lebanon with the work of the ministry and the measures taken in terms of closing unlicensed factories and obligating industrial establishments to work according to quality specifications and standards that qualify the Lebanese product to compete locally and abroad.
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, was quoted encouraging the Industry Minister to proceed with this plan to re-launch the industry, modernize it, and restore the productive economy as an alternative to the rentier economy.
In addition, Minister Boushekian emphasized that there is no emigration of factories from Lebanon, and pointed out that there have been many industrial investments in Lebanon in the past year.
Minister Boushekian positions came after visiting President Aoun, today at the Presidential Palace.
Minister Boushekian tackled with President Aoun the industrial situation, in addition to the results of his talks in Iraq, where he signed a memorandum of cooperation and inaugurated the Iraqi-Lebanese Business Conference.
Statement:
After the meeting, the Industry Minister made the following statement:
“I was honored to visit the President. We discussed industrial, economic and production prospects that are gradually improving with the work of the Ministry and its strict measures and procedures in terms of closing unlicensed factories and obliging industrial establishments to work according to specifications and standards so that the Lebanese product is good, conforms to specifications and has a high quality that qualifies it to compete in Lebanon and abroad. President Aoun was satisfied with these results and showed all care and encouragement to proceed with this plan to re-launch and modernize the industry and restore the productive economy as an alternative to the rentier economy.
I also briefed the President on the discussions I had in Iraq during my visit to Baghdad in the past two days, and we opened the Iraqi-Lebanese Business Conference in Baghdad with official, governmental and private sector participation in both countries. Meetings were also held with the Iraqi Ministers of Industry, Minerals and Trade, and a memorandum of cooperation was signed between the Lebanese and Iraqi Ministries of Industry, which is considered an essential foundation for developing and strengthening joint relations.
I also tackled the extent of the Iraqis’ attachment to Lebanon and their willingness to cooperate, which are mutual aspects. And we set a starting base for cooperation based on integrated manufacturing industries, and they offered to exchange experiences with us, and to provide training experiences for the Iraqi side in many areas related to management, research and scientific development, archiving, mechanization, packaging, marketing and other fields. Iraq’s leadership and people are on the side of Lebanon”.
Questions & Answers:
Minister Boushekian was asked about the difficulties facing Lebanese industrialist, in light of the increase in fuel prices, where he replied “Let’s set things straight regarding factories, and according to sectors, there are sectors which require a maximum of 5% energy, others require 10% and others 30%. The industries mostly affected by the rise of prices are those which require a larger percentage of energy, and these industries are not numerous, because most industrial sectors need a percentage of energy between 3 and 5%, which is part of the capital of commodity”.
With regard to what is said about the migration of Lebanese factories abroad, Minister Boushekian affirmed that “This issue is not true, because there are factories which began to open production branches abroad, while there were many industrial investments in Lebanon in 2021. Today there arelicenses and huge factories under construction in several sectors, including pharmaceutical, food and others”.
Responding to a question about what the ministry is doing to curb price slippage in the market, even for locally made goods, the Industry Minister said “This is the role of the Economy Ministry. Therefore, I seek to highlight the reality of the cost, which varies between goods. In many cases, it is used to talk about the issue of the customs dollar and others, while the raw materials for the industry are exempted from customs fees within the framework of what is stipulated in the agreements with the European Union, the European Partnership and Arab countries. The plastics sector for example, needs a large percentage of energy, and therefore it can increase its prices, but the food sector needs energy between 3 and 5%. Hence, we must be transparent in this matter. Monitoring markets is the responsibility of the Economy Ministry, while the Industry Ministry is concerned with monitoring industry and industrial productions, specifications and quality, in order to give the best product at the best cost. Our job stops at this point”.
Former Minister Akar:
The President met former Deputy Prime Minister, Mrs. Zeina Akar, and deliberated with her general affairs and political developments.
Mrs. Akar also congratulated President Aoun on the holidays.
“Tanzim” Movement:
President Aoun received “Tanzim” Movement Secretary-General, Mr. Abbad Zouein, and members of the Leadership Council, General Jean Murad, Elie Murad and Tony Haber.
Mr. Zouein affirmed that “Tanzim” stands by the President in his stances, and supports the steps he is taking in order to combat corruption, proceed with forensic audit, and not disrupt constitutional institutions. -- Presidency Press Office

Mikati meets US ambassador, tackles developments with UN’s Rushdi
NNA/January 14/2022 
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, welcomed this afternoon at the Grand Serail the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. On emerging, Ambassador Shea stated: “I just met with His Excellency, the Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, and I was able to convey to him an official written communication from the U.S. Department of the Treasury that answered some of the concerns that the authorities had. They wanted to make sure that in pursuing the regional energy deals, that the United States has been helping to facilitate – and encourage – between Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan that there would be no concerns with U.S. sanctions’ legislation.  This letter that was delivered represents forward momentum, an important milestone as we continue to make progress to bring safer, cleaner, more reliable and more sustainable energy solutions to help address the energy crisis that the Lebanese people have been experiencing.”
On the other hand, Premier Mikati also received at the Grand Serail United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon and Humanitarian Coordinator, Najat Rushdi. The pair discussed the general situation in Lebanon and the best means to support the Lebanese people amid the prevailing crises.
Rushdi also briefed the PM on the activities carried out by United Nations’ agencies and organizations in Lebanon.

Hariri's Advisor Accuses FPM of Paranoia, Says Presidency 'Godfather of Disruption'
Naharnet/January 14/2022
The media advisor of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Hussein Al-Wajeh, accused the FPM of "suffering from paranoia." "It is very saddening for the presidency to reach a phase of complete denial of the chaos it has plunged the country into," Wajeh said in a tweet, criticizing a statement by President Michel Aoun. Aoun on Thursday had lashed out at those who announced their boycott of his proposed national dialogue conference and those who boycotted the preparatory bilateral meetings, holding them responsible for the continued all-out paralysis of the government, judiciary and parliament.
Hariri's media advisor hit back, saying that the presidency is "the godfather of disruption" and that it had disrupted the presidency and the government for years.

Berri briefed by Minister Boushekian on outcome of Iraq visit, meets Swiss ambassador, Beirut Governor
NNA/January 14/2022 
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday welcomed at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh the Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon, Marion Krupski, with whom he discussed the current general situation and the bilateral relations between the two countries. Speaker Berri also received Governor of Beirut, Judge Marwan Abboud, with whom he discussed the current general situation.Separately, Berri met with Minister of Industry, George Boushekian, with discussions reportedly touching on the latest developments, industrial sector’s related affairs and the outcome of Boushekian’s recent visit to Iraq.
On emerging, Minister Boushekian said that he briefed Speaker Berri on the positive outcome of his recent visit to Iraq.

Jumblatt calls on Cabinet to meet without any prior conditions to get out of deadly impasse
NNA/January 14/2022
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, tweeted today on the stalled cabinet sessions, saying: "To get out of the vicious circle of disruption, the best way is for the Council of Ministers to meet without any preconditions and start the workshop, foremost of which is negotiation with the International Monetary Fund. This is the basic dialogue and there is no alternative to it."

US Embassy denies discussing issues involving Lebanese Central Bank with Berri
NNA/January 14/2022
The US Embassy in Beirut on Wednesday denied via twitter having discussed issues involving the Lebanese Central Bank with Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, yesterday. “We were surprised by a press report indicating that the Lebanese Central Bank was a subject of discussion between US Ambassador, Dorothy Shea, and House Speaker, Nabih Berri, yesterday. In fact, discussions with the House Speaker focused on questions about the House of Parliament and an upcoming visit by a US State Department official,” a tweet on the US embassy’s twitter account said.

Lira Makes Major Recovery on Black Market after BDL Measures
Naharnet/January 14/2022
The Lebanese lira made a major recovery against the dollar on Friday, after the central bank allowed commercial banks to purchase dollars from it at the Sayrafa platform exchange rate. The dollar was trading for LBP 27,750 on the black market around 1pm Friday, down from around LBP 31,000 the previous day. “You feel like Riad Salameh is suddenly finding dollars in his jacket’s pocket,” a Lebanese citizen quipped on Facebook, wondering how the central bank is going to provide fresh dollars to pay the banks as per its latest circular. A Lebanese financial expert meanwhile warned that the central bank would deplete its remaining foreign currency reserves with the measures it is taking to stabilize the lira in the absence of reforms by the political authorities. The central bank had announced Tuesday that banks are now allowed to unlimitedly buy U.S. dollars from the central bank in Lebanese pounds at the price specified by the Sayrafa platform. “In addition to the monthly quota that the banks are withdrawing in USD, the banks now have the right to buy dollar banknotes from the BDL with the LBP currency that they and their customers possess, without a ceiling,” the central bank said. The BDL’s statement came after a meeting between Salameh, Prime Minister Najib Miqati and Finance Minister Youssef al-Khalil.

Salameh: BDL to Continue Allowing Banks to Buy Dollars at Sayrafa Rate
Naharnet/January 14/2022
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced Friday in a statement that the Central Bank will continue to allow commercial banks to purchase U.S. dollars from it at the Sayrafa platform exchange rate. The decision which was taken Tuesday has apparently led to a major recovery of the Lebanese lira value on the black market. The dollar was trading for LBP 27,850 on the black market around 5pm Friday, down from around LBP 31,000 the previous day.

Students Struggle as Lebanon Crisis Cripples University Sector
Asharq Al-Awsat/January 14/2022
Power shortages and soaring petrol prices mean many Lebanese university students can neither afford to reach their classes nor study from home, a conundrum that is ravaging a generation's future. Agnes, a 22-year-old dentistry student from south Lebanon, is among the few still plodding to class in Beirut four days a week. The five hours she spends on a bus daily now costs her 1.3 million Lebanese pounds a month -- "that's half of my father's salary", she said.
Such expenses are now beyond the reach of most Lebanese students, with their country in the throes of a financial, political and health crisis that has ravaged its economy. The national currency has lost more than 95 percent of its value on the black market, and the minimum wage of 675,000 pounds is worth little more than $20, which barely pays for a full tank of petrol. Transport "is becoming more expensive than my semester's tuition fees", according to AFP, Tarek, a 25-year-old student at the Islamic University of Lebanon who, like the others interviewed, declined to give a family name. As a result, and also because teachers face similar difficulties, many universities continue to offer online classes. But staying connected during state power cuts that often last more than 20 hours a day also comes at a cost. Amina, 22, a student at the public Lebanese University, said she has reverted to doing most of her work from books due to the lack of electricity at home. There are "about 75 students in the class, of whom a maximum of five" can attend online, she said, adding that she needed to study around nine hours a day in order not to fall behind. To keep laptops and modems running, families have to pay for expensive private generators, but that option too is unaffordable for many. Some students are spending their money on mobile phone data so they can connect their computers to an internet hotspot. The spaghetti wiring connecting laptops, routers and phone chargers to all manner of back-up devices -- from commercial uninterruptible power supplies to homemade contraptions using car batteries -- means study areas now often look like the back of an IT workshop. "All of this is additional cost," said 22-year-old Ghassan, a student at the Sagesse University. Several institutions have set up special student funds in an attempt to maintain enrolment levels, said Jean-Noel Baleo, Middle East director of the Francophone University Agency -- a network of French-speaking institutions. "Some universities are keeping students who cannot pay, which is a form of hidden bursary," he told AFP.
But he said such Band-Aid fixes were barely slowing the decline of a higher education system that was once a source of national pride, and whose multilingual graduates flooded the region's elites. "It's a collapse we're talking about, and there's more bad news on the way," said Baleo, who predicted the definitive closure of some universities and an intensifying brain drain. Education Minister Abbas Halabi admitted he was largely powerless to stem the sector's crisis.
"I tried to secure subsidies for the Lebanese University from foreign donors but at this stage they have not replied positively," he told AFP.
"The Lebanese state does not have the means." Even as the financial meltdown threatens several pillars of the country's education system, Lebanon's political elite -- widely blamed for collapse -- have resisted reforms that would open the way for international assistance, and the cabinet has not met in three months. "Today, the easiest option is to set up online classes, even if that remains a difficult option. Rising transport costs make it the least-worst fix," Baleo said. In the meantime, students like Tarek say the crisis is turning university life into an ordeal. "It's exhausting and depressing," he said. "I am considering quitting university... The wages are so bad that you're not even motivated to graduate to find a job," he said. Student Ghassan said he only wanted to graduate so it could help him leave the country. "All the youth want to leave because there's no clear future here," he said.

Trying to maintain a normal life despite the occupation of the country is an act of resistance by itself.
Jean-Marie Kassab/January 14/2022
Trying to maintain a normal life despite the occupation of the country is an act of resistance by itself.
Jean-Marie Kassab/January 14/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105611/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b8-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%ad%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%a9-%d8%b7%d8%a8/
Trying to maintain a normal life despite the occupation of the country is an act of resistance by itself.
We don’t need to be combatants each and every one. Having a drink in a public place is good. Besides having a good time, it helps the economy.
Yet decency is as important. If I were you, I would not display on social media riches as if all is well while others starve or hurt.
Lebanon is occupied by Iran. Consequences of this occupation are getting worse by the day.
Vive la Résistance
Vive le Liban
Jean-Marie Kassab
Task Force Lebanon.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 14-15/2022
In Blow to Biden, Supreme Court Blocks Vaccine Mandate for Businesses
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
The US Supreme Court delivered a blow to President Joe Biden on Thursday, blocking his Covid vaccination-or-testing mandate for employees of large businesses. At the same time, the nation's highest court allowed a vaccination mandate for health care workers at facilities receiving federal funding, AFP said. Biden said he was "disappointed" in the nine-member court's decision striking down his mandate for businesses with 100 employees or more to vaccinate or test their workers for Covid-19. "I am disappointed that the Supreme Court has chosen to block common-sense life-saving requirements for employees at large businesses that were grounded squarely in both science and the law," Biden said in a statement. The president welcomed the requirement that health care workers be vaccinated, saying it would affect some 10 million people working at facilities receiving federal funds and will "save lives." After months of public appeals to Americans to get vaccinated against Covid, which has killed more than 845,000 people in the United States, Biden announced in September that he was making vaccinations compulsory at large private companies. Unvaccinated employees would have to present weekly negative tests and wear face masks while at work. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), a federal agency, gave businesses until February 9 to be in compliance with the rules or face the possibility of fines. But the Supreme Court's six conservative justices ruled the mandate would represent a "significant encroachment into the lives -- and health -- of a vast number of employees.""Although Congress has indisputably given OSHA the power to regulate occupational dangers, it has not given that agency the power to regulate public health more broadly," they said. "Requiring the vaccination of 84 million Americans, selected simply because they work for employers with more than 100 employees, certainly falls in the latter category," they added. The three liberal justices dissented, saying the ruling "stymies the federal government's ability to counter the unparalleled threat that Covid–19 poses to our nation's workers."
'Do no harm' -
The vaccination mandate for health care workers at facilities receiving federal funding was approved in a 5-4 vote, with two conservatives -- Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh -- joining the liberals."Ensuring that providers take steps to avoid transmitting a dangerous virus to their patients is consistent with the fundamental principle of the medical profession: first, do no harm," they said in the majority opinion. Vaccination has become a politically polarizing issue in the United States, where approximately 63 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. A coalition of 26 business associations had filed suit against the OSHA regulations and several Republican-led states had challenged the mandate for health care workers. Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in the House, called the Supreme Court's decision "alarming," and slammed Republicans for continuing "to attack life-saving vaccines."Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida, however, said the court's ruling "sends a clear message: Biden is not a king & his gross overreaches of federal power will not be tolerated.""I had COVID & got the vaccine, but I will NEVER support a vaccine mandate that bullies hardworking Americans & kills jobs," Scott said.
Former president Donald Trump welcomed the businesses ruling. "The Supreme Court has spoken, confirming what we all knew: Biden's disastrous mandates are unconstitutional," Trump said in a statement. "We are proud of the Supreme Court for not backing down. No mandates!" In his statement, Biden said it is now up to states and individual employers to determine whether they should be requiring employees "to take the simple and effective step of getting vaccinated."He said the Supreme Court ruling "does not stop me from using my voice as president to advocate for employers to do the right thing to protect Americans' health and economy.""We have to keep working together if we want to save lives, keep people working, and put this pandemic behind us," he said.

Many unresolved issues remain in Iran nuclear talks: Source
Reuters, AFP/14 January ,2022
Many issues in a range of areas remain unresolved in indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a source close to the talks said on Friday. “In every single part of the (unfinished) paper (outlining a deal) there are issues that are still under consideration,” the source told reporters, adding that while negotiations are moving in the right direction they “do not have all the time in the world.”Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Friday that a renewed deal with Iran on curtailing its nuclear program remained “possible” as talks in Vienna advance in a “better atmosphere.”“We’re arriving at the end of a long process... there’s a better atmosphere since Christmas - before Christmas I was very pessimistic. Today I believe reaching an accord is possible,” he said after an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers. He said a final deal could be concluded “in the coming weeks.”“I still maintain the hope that it would be possible to remake this agreement and have it function as it did before the American withdrawal,” he added.

Iran Reports launching Solid-Fuel Satellite Rocket into Space
Naharnet/Associated Press/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard last week launched a solid-fuel satellite carrier rocket into space, the country's official IRNA news agency reported. The report quoted Gen. Amirali Hajizadeh, chief of the Guard's aerospace unit, as saying the test was successful. He said it marked the first time Iran used a solid-fuel rocket rather than a liquid-fuel one. He said Iran will produce lighter rocket engines in further space projects. According to the general, the satellite carrier was made of a composite material instead of metal — something he claimed was "cost-efficient." Hajizadeh spoke to a group of clerics in the city of Qom, the seat of seminaries in Iran. He said Iran strongly pursues its goals in aerospace and satellite industry. However, composites are in general more expensive to produce than their metal equivalents. Composites also make a rocket lighter so it can boost a heavier satellite or payload into orbit. State TV did not show any footage on the launch. Satellite carriers usually use liquid fuel but solid-fuel rockets can be adapted for mobile launchers that can be driven anywhere on a major road or rail system. Pure solid-fuel rockets are mostly associated with ballistic missiles systems.
Last month, Iran said it launched a rocket with a satellite carrier bearing three devices into space, without saying whether any of the objects had entered Earth's orbit. The State Department at the time said it remains concerned by Iran's space launches, which it asserts "pose a significant proliferation concern" in regards to Tehran's ballistic missile program. The launches come against the backdrop of negotiations in Vienna trying to revive Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with world powers. Iran, which has long said that it does not seek nuclear weapons, insists that its satellite launches and rocket tests do not have a military component.

NATO Will Not Allow Russia to Blackmail the Alliance, Says Germany
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
NATO will not allow Moscow to blackmail the alliance and will not accept a Russian veto against an enlargement, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Friday. "Russia does not have a veto in issues concerning the alliance and cannot blackmail us. These red lines must be clear in all pending talks," she told parliament, Reuters reported. "But between these red lines and a military conflict, there is a lot of scope that we must make use of", Lambrecht said, adding she would meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin next week. In another development, Ukrainian military intelligence said on Friday that Russian special services were preparing what it called "provocations" against Russian servicemen located in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria in order to accuse Ukraine. It said in a statement that the provocations may be against Russian armed forces' artillery depots. Ukraine was hit on Friday by a massive cyberattack warning its citizens to "be afraid and expect the worst." Russia, which has massed more than 100,000 troops on its neighbor's frontier, meanwhile released TV pictures of more forces deploying in a drill.

Blinken says 'a few weeks' left for Iran to resume nuclear compliance
Al-Monitor Staff/January 14/2022
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said only “a few weeks” remain to bring Iran back into compliance and salvage the landmark nuclear deal before the United States considers its “other options.” Blinken’s comments came as talks continue between Tehran and world powers over the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Iran began violating those restrictions after former President Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018 and reimposed economic sanctions. President Joe Biden has sought to reenter the multilateral accord if Iran rolls back its breaches. Talks aimed at salvaging the JCPOA resumed in late November after a five-month hiatus that followed the election of hard-line Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.  “We’re very, very short on time,” Blinken said in an interview with NPR on Thursday. “They’re making advances that will become increasingly hard to reverse because they’re learning things; they’re doing new things as a result of having broken out of their constraints under the agreement,” he said.  Because Iran refuses to meet with the United States in Vienna, US special envoy Robert Malley and his negotiating team are participating in the talks indirectly through intermediaries. In recent weeks, US officials have reported “modest progress” in the talks but have also warned there are other options should diplomacy fail. “We have, I think, a few weeks left to see if we can get back to mutual compliance,” Blinken said. The top US diplomat said a restoration of the deal "would be the best result for America's security," but added, “If we can’t, we are looking at other steps, other options, again closely coordinated with concerned countries.” Among the sticking points in the talks is Iran’s insistence that the United States withdraw all sanctions before Iran reverses any of its violations. Tehran has also demanded that any future deal contain guarantees that Washington won't renege as Trump did three years after President Barack Obama sealed the agreement in 2015. The Biden administration has said such assurances are impossible, but that the United States has no intention of withdrawing from a renegotiated deal.

Republicans Call on Biden to Withdraw from ‘Farcical’ Negotiations with Iran
Washington - Rana AbtarAsharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Those opposing the Iran nuke talks in Washington are pressing the US administration to nix the negotiations as they have been moving at a languid pace. Republicans raised the alarm in a letter they wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging the Biden administration to pull out of unproductive talks and adopt a harsher stance against the cleric-led regime in Iran. In the letter, legislators warned that Iran is trying to buy time in negotiations to develop its nuclear weapons, stressing that Tehran’s atomic provocations, while impeding progress in talks, prove its evil intentions. “Iran’s growing nuclear provocations, while stalling progress in negotiations are the epitome of bad faith,” the lawmakers wrote. Roughly 110 lawmakers asked Blinken to enforce existing sanctions against Tehran that were imposed after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018. “The US and our partners must increase pressure on Iran to stop its dangerous nuclear advancements,” they wrote. “The most effective way to do so is to strongly enforce our existing sanctions and urge our partners to take similar steps. If Iran is not prepared to negotiate as things stand, we need to build our leverage to compel them to negotiate a better, stricter deal with no sunsets.”Moreover, the legislators addressed the threat of oil trade between Iran and China. “As a first, immediate step, the Administration must enforce penalties against China’s flagrant violations of US sanctions on Iran’s oil trade,” said the lawmakers. “Iran’s oil shipments are now worth at least $1.3 billion per month, despite the fact that US sanctions are still in effect,” they added. Reports in November showed that China continued to import an average of over half a million barrels of Iranian oil per day. “It is well past time for the Administration to end these farcical negotiations and fully enforce our existing sanctions to slash this vital source of revenue for the Iranian regime,” concluded the lawmakers.

US: Smuggled Iranian Weapons to Houthis a Flagrant Violation of Int'l Law
Washington - Ali BaradaAsharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Wednesday that the Houthi offensive in Yemen is fueled by “the illegal flow of weapons” to the group from Iran. She told members of the Security Council that "the smuggling of arms from Iran to the Houthis represents a flagrant violation of the UN’s targeted arms embargo and is yet another example of how Iran’s destabilizing activity is prolonging the war in Yemen.”UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Council that in the seventh year of conflict the warring parties seem to be seeking military victory. But, he said, “there is no sustainable long-term solution to be found on the battlefield” and both sides must talk even if they are not ready to lay down their arms. “We appear to once more be entering an escalatory cycle with predictable devastating implications for civilians and for the immediate prospects of peace,” Grundberg told the Council.Houthis are pressing their assault on the key city of Marib, and there Is renewed fighting in the southern province of Shabwah where Yemen’s internationally recognized government has recaptured three districts from the Houthis, he said. Grundberg expressed concern that battles could intensify on other fronts, pointing to the Houthis’ recent seizure of a ship flying the United Arab Emirates flag. He also called accusations that ports in mainly Houthi-controlled Hodeidah -- a lifeline for delivering aid, food and fuel to the country -- are being militarized “worrying.”Ramesh Rajasingham, the UN’s deputy humanitarian chief, said fierce fighting is continuing along dozens of front lines and in December 358 civilians were reportedly killed or injured, “a figure that is tied for the highest in three years.”He said last year’s UN appeal for about $3.9 billion to help 16 million people was only 58% funded -- the lowest level since 2015 -- and Rajasingham said the UN expects this year’s aid operation to need roughly as much money. He also said they have still not provided access to two UN staff members detained in Sanaa in November. While humanitarian aid is essential, Rajasingham stressed that the biggest drivers of people’s needs are economic collapse accelerated by conflict. Greenfield said that the “worrying” escalation of violence by the Houthis “undermines the cause of peace,” expressing concern over the latest aggression mainly in Sanaa, Marib, and the Red sea. The ambassador hailed Grundberg’s efforts and stressed that all parties must deal with him and with each other with good intention and without preconditions in order to advance in a political solution. She criticized the escalation of Houthis, which “undermines peace." Despite repeated condemnation by the Security Council the Houthis continue to occupy the shuttered US embassy compound, and to detain and harass the Yemeni staff who work there. “The Houthis must immediately release, unharmed, all of our Yemeni employees, vacate the former US embassy compound, return seized US property and cease their threats against our employees and their families,” Thomas-Greenfield said. She also condemned the seizure by the Houthis of the civilian Emirati ship Rwabee and called for the immediate release of the ship and its crew.

US Grants South Korea an Iran Sanctions Exemption
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
The United States has granted South Korea a sanctions exemption, allowing the country to pay millions of dollars of overdue compensation to an Iranian investor over a 2010 dispute. Seoul's foreign ministry said it had received a "specific license" from the US Treasury Department allowing the South Korean government to pay compensation to Iran's Dayyani Group. "The license allows using the US financial system to pay compensation to the Iranian private investor," AFP quoted the ministry as saying in a statement. In 2018, the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes ordered Seoul to pay 73 billion won ($61 million) to the Dayyani Group over a failed takeover of Daewoo Electronics in 2010. The license will serve as an "important foundation" for settling the dispute with the Iranian investor, the ministry added, expressing hope that "it will help improve bilateral relations". The announcement comes more than a week after South Korea sent top diplomats to Vienna for talks with US negotiators working to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Tehran was South Korea's third-largest Middle Eastern trade partner before the United States unilaterally withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers and reimposed crippling sanctions. Iran had been a key oil supplier to resource-poor South Korea and in turn imported industrial equipment, household appliances and vehicle spare parts from Seoul. Last year, Iran threatened South Korea with legal action unless Seoul released the more than $7 billion in frozen funds for oil shipments. On the sidelines of the nuclear talks last week, South Korea said that it was looking for ways to resolve the issue of frozen Iranian assets in Korea. France, Germany and the UK are participating in the talks about the 2015 deal, along with Russia and China, while the United States is indirectly involved.

Explosion Hits Building of Iraq Parliament Speaker’s Party, 2 Wounded
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
An explosion from a hand grenade hit the headquarters of Iraqi parliament speaker Mohammed Halbousi's Taqaddum party in Baghdad early on Friday wounding two guards, police sources said. The blast caused damage to the building's doors and windows, police said. No group claimed responsibility and there was no comment from Halbousi or the Iraqi government immediately for the incident. A similar incident hours later targeted the Baghdad headquarters of the Azm party of another Sunni politician, Khamis al-Khanjar, police said, but caused only light damage. There was no claim of responsibility for the second incident. Iraq's parliament, newly elected after an October 10 general election in which Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was the biggest winner, voted to reinstate Halbousi for his second term as speaker on Sunday. Shiite parties aligned with Iran and which rival Sadr, opposed the selection of Halbousi.

4 Rockets Target U.S. Embassy in Baghdad
Associated Press/Friday, 14 January, 2022
At least four rockets have targeted the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, two Iraqi security officials said. The area is home to diplomatic missions and the seat of Iraq's government, Three of the missiles struck within the perimeter of the American Embassy, the officials said. Another hit a school located in a nearby residential complex. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media. An Iraqi military statement said a girl and a woman were injured in the attack, without providing more details. The statement said the rockets had been launched from the Dora neighborhood of Baghdad. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said in a statement that its compound had been attacked by "terrorists groups attempting to undermine Iraq's security, sovereignty, and international relations." The embassy's C-RAM defense system — supposed to detect and destroy incoming rockets, artillery and mortar shells — was heard during the attack.The attack is the latest in a series of rocket and drone attacks that have targeted the American presence in Iraq since the start of the year, following the second anniversary of the U.S. strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Last Thursday, a series of attacks targeted American troops in Iraq and Syria. Rockets struck an Iraqi military base hosting U.S. troops in western Anbar province and the capital. Pro-Iran Shiite factions in Iraq have vowed revenge for Soleimani's killing and have conditioned the end of the attacks on the full exit of American troops from the country. The U.S.-led coalition formally ended its combat mission supporting Iraqi forces in the ongoing fight against the Islamic State group last month. Some 2,500 troops will remain as the coalition shifts to an advisory mission to continue supporting Iraqi forces. The top U.S. commander for the Middle East, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, warned in an interview with The Associated Press last month that he expects increasing attacks on U.S. and Iraqi personnel by Iranian-backed militias determined to get American forces out.

Sadr's Push to Sideline Iran-Backed Iraqi Factions Risks Clash
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Iraq might for the first time in years get a government that excludes Iran-backed parties if Shiite populist cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who dominated a recent election keeps his word, Iraqi politicians, government officials and independent analysts say according to Reuters. But moves by Sadr to sideline rivals long backed by Tehran risks the ire of their heavily armed militias that make up some of the most powerful and most anti-American military forces in Iraq, they say. The surest sign of Sadr's new parliamentary power and his willingness to ignore groups loyal to Iran came on Sunday when his Sadrist Movement, together with a Sunni parliament alliance and Kurds, reelected a parliamentary speaker opposed by the Iran-aligned camp with a solid majority. Parliament must in the coming weeks choose the country's president, who will call on the largest parliamentary alliance to form a government, a process that will be dominated by the Sadrist Movement whoever it chooses to work with. "We are on track to form a national majority government," Sadr said in a statement this week, using a term that officials say is a euphemism for a government made up of Sadrists, Sunnis and Kurds but no Iran-backed parties.
Sadr's politicians, buoyed by their easy victory in parliament last week, echoed their leader's confidence. The Iran camp "should face reality: election losers can't make the government," said Riyadh al-Masoudi, a senior member of the Sadrist Movement. "We have a real majority, a strong front that includes us, the Sunnis, most of the Kurds and many independents and can form a government very soon."Iraqi politicians and analysts say the rise of Sadr and political decline of the Iranian camp, long hostile to the United States, suits Washington and its allies in the region, despite Sadr's unpredictability.
But excluding the Iran camp from government risks a violent backlash.
"If the Sadrists get their national majority government ... those who oppose them will view this as splitting the Shiites and threatening their power," Ahmed Younis, an Iraqi political and legal analyst, said. "They will do all they can to avoid losing that grip."Shiite groups have dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. They span an array of parties, most with armed wings, but fall broadly now into two camps: those that are pro-Iran and those that oppose Tehran's influence in Iraq. The Shiite elite have shared control over many ministries, with Iran-aligned groups holding the upper hand until the recent rise of Sadr, the biggest winner in the Oct. 10 election which dealt a crushing blow to the Iran camp. For the first time post-Saddam, the Iran-aligned groups could see themselves in opposition in parliament.
'Scary moment'
Events since the election have showed how dangerous the sharpening divide between Sadr and his Iran-backed opponents has become.
In November, protests opposing the election result by supporters of those parties turned violent and an armed drone attack blamed on Iran-linked factions struck a residence of outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, widely viewed as a close Sadr ally. On Friday an explosion hit the Baghdad party headquarters of newly re-elected parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi. It was not immediately clear if this was linked to Halbousi's election by parliament on Sunday or who was responsible. There was no claim of responsibility. One Iran-aligned group issued a warning this week after the parliament's decision that Iraq could see a spiral of violence. An Iraqi government official, who declined to be named, said he expected those in the Iran camp to use the threat of violence to get a place in government, but not to escalate into a full-scale conflict with Sadr.
Other observers, however, say Sadr's insistence on sidelining Iran-aligned parties and militias could be a dangerous gamble. "The question is, does he (Sadr) realize how potentially destabilizing this is and is he ready for the violent push back?" said Professor Toby Dodge of the London School of Economics. "The (Iran-backed) militias are increasingly overtly threatening violence, and Sadr is saying they cannot do this. It's a scary moment."Halbousi's election was viewed as an easy victory for the Sadrists. But the stakes will be higher in selecting a president and a prime minister. Politicians on both sides of the Shiite divide show little sign they might soften their positions. "The Sadrists ... marginalizing parts of the Shiite political class could lead to boycotts of the government, protests in the street and armed violence," said Ibrahim Mohammed, a senior member of the Iran-aligned Fatah political alliance. A second Sadrist politician, who declined to be named on orders from his party, said: "We're powerful, we have a strong leader and millions of followers who are ready to take to the streets and sacrifice themselves."

Supreme Court Suspends Iraq Parliament
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Friday, 14 January, 2022
The Federal Supreme Court of Iraq suspended on Thursday the parliament speaker and his two deputies, days after they were elected to their post. The ruling came after MPs Bassem Khashan and Mahmoud Daoud filed a complaint citing "legal and constitutional violations" in their election. The parliament will therefore be suspended until the judiciary can examine the appeal and issue a final ruling in the case. The suspension marked a precedent in Iraq. Observers have expressed concern that should the appeal be accepted, it would delay other pending constitutional affairs, such as the election of a president in the next three weeks. Former head of the Integrity Commission Judge Rahem al-Ugaili doubted that the court's acceptance of the appeal would annul the inaugural session of the new parliament, which was held on Sunday. In remarks to the Asharq Al-Awsat, he explained that the ratification of the appeal is not considered a judicial ruling, but rather a suspension that would give the relevant authorities time to examine the legality and constitutionality of the inaugural meeting. The decision will, however, have direct and indirect impacts on the parliament, which will be completely suspended until a final ruling over the appeal is reached. He said that such an issue should be finalized withing 10 to 15 days. He believes that the Supreme Court does not have jurisdiction over the work of the parliament, rather its authority covers the constitutionality of laws and regulations. MP Khashan, who filed the appeal, is known for his fierce rivalry with Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, who was reelected to his post on Sunday. During the meeting, he submitted legal documents that condemn Halbousi and prevent him from again running for speaker, but his objections were ignored.

Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh to Host COP27 in November 2022
Cairo/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Egypt will host the COP27 United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2022 in the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh in November. World leaders and heads of state and governments are expected to attend the summit. Representing the African continent, Egypt’s hosting of the event will boost its status and attain the government’s efforts to enhance its position as a hub for major international conferences. Public sector and other civil society institutions in Egypt are preparing for the event and launched the “National Climate Change Strategy-2050.”The government is also planning to cooperate with various international companies to enhance its contribution to green energy plans. Cairo organized a special session on climate change during the fourth edition of the World Youth Forum that was concluded on Thursday. During the session, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced Egypt's plans to double its use of renewable energy by 30%. Sharm El-Sheikh in South Sinai hosted all editions of the World Youth Forum. Also, the city hosted in November 2021 the 21st session of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African Countries (COMESA).European and Arab leaders also held their first summit in February 2019 in Sharm El-Sheikh where kings, heads of state and governments and ministers from 50 different countries participated.

SOHR: Russian Strikes in Syria Kill 11 ISIS Militants
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Russian air strikes in desert areas of eastern Syria have killed 11 suspected ISIS members following deadly attacks by the militants, a war monitor reported Thursday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors casualties of the decade-old conflict, said the overnight strikes focused on an area between Palmyra and Al-Sukhna. AFP reported Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said as saying that the militant organization's members "hide in caves in this area." The strikes killed 11 ISIS militants and wounded around 20 others, some of them seriously, he said. They came after five Syrian pro-regime fighters were killed and 14 others wounded on Wednesday in an ISIS attack on their position in the city of AlBukamal near the border with Iraq. The Britain-based Observatory said some of the militants burned the bodies of some victims after the assault. Earlier on Wednesday, a similar ISIS attack killed three pro-regime fighters and wounded five others in Deir Ezzor province, according to the monitor. Thursday's strikes were the deadliest of their kind since November, when the Observatory reported 16 killed in militant ranks. Abdel Rahman said he had counted a total of 229 Russian air strikes against targets in the Syrian desert already this year. More than 1,636 pro-regime fighters have been killed since March 2019, compared to 1,128 ISIS militants, according to the Observatory. The ISIS group's self-declared caliphate once stretched across vast parts of Syria and Iraq and administered millions of inhabitants. A long and deadly military fightback led by Syrian and Iraqi forces with backing from the United States and other powers eventually defeated the militant proto-state in March 2019. The remnants of ISIS mostly went back to their desert hideouts from which they continue to harass Syrian government and allied forces. The group is thought to be attempting to secure sources of funding through trafficking and racketeering, prompting observers to warn of a jihadist resurgence in the region.

Moroccan FM Holds Talks with de Mistura in Rabat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Former UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura met Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Bourita in Rabat, the Foreign Ministry said Thursday. The regional visit of de Mistura is part of the implementation of Security Council resolution 2602, adopted on October 29, 2021, in which the UN Executive Body reiterates its call to the parties to continue their commitment to the roundtable process to achieve a realistic political solution based on compromise, the official MAP agency reported. It also said that Moroccan officials reiterated the kingdom’s "commitment to the resumption of the political process conducted under the exclusive auspices of the UN to achieve a political solution" based on a Moroccan plan for autonomy. Rabat sees the Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony with access to lucrative phosphate resources and rich Atlantic fisheries, as its sovereign territory. But the Polisario Front, which took up arms in the 1970s to seek independence there, demands an independence referendum on the basis of a 1991 deal that included a ceasefire. The truce collapsed in 2020, after the Trump administration recognized Rabat's sovereignty over the Western Sahara. Morocco has offered limited autonomy but rejected calls for independence. King Mohamed VI reiterated that position in a November speech, calling for a "peaceful solution" to the conflict but vowed that "Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara will never be up for negotiation". According to AFP, the last talks, under de Mistura's predecessor Horst Kohler, were in Switzerland in 2019, in a roundtable format including Morocco, the Polisario, Algeria and Mauritania. But Algiers has since refused to take part in further roundtable discussions. A UN Security Council resolution late last year called for "the parties" in the Western Sahara dispute to resume negotiations "without preconditions".

Turkey, Armenia to Hold Talks on Normalizing Ties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 14 January, 2022
Envoys from Turkey and Armenia will hold a first round of talks aimed at normalizing ties in Moscow on Friday, in a move Armenia expects will lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening borders after decades of animosity. Turkey and Armenia have had no diplomatic or commercial ties for three decades and the talks are the first attempt to restore links since a 2009 peace accord. That deal was never ratified and ties have remained tense. The neighbors are at odds over various issues, primarily the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Armenia says the 1915 killings constitute a genocide. Turkey accepts that many Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire were killed in clashes with Ottoman forces during World War One, but contests the figures and denies the killings were systematically orchestrated or constitute a genocide. During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara supported Azerbaijan and accused ethnic Armenian forces of occupying Azeri territory. Turkey began calling for a rapprochement after the conflict, as it sought greater influence in the region. Russia's TASS news agency cited Armenia's foreign ministry as saying on Thursday that Yerevan expected the latest talks to lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of frontiers closed since 1993. With borders closed, Turkey and Armenia have no direct trade routes. Indirect trade has risen marginally since 2013 but was just $3.8 million in 2021, according to official Turkish data. Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, said in November opening borders and renovating railways between Turkey and Armenia would have economic benefits for Yerevan, as the routes could be used by traders from Turkey, Russia, Armenia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last year the two countries would also start charter flights between Istanbul and Yerevan under the rapprochement, but that Turkey would coordinate all steps with Azerbaijan. The flights are set to begin in early February. Despite strong backing for normalization from the United States, which hosts a large Armenian diaspora and angered Turkey last year by calling the 1915 killings a genocide, analysts have said the talks would be complicated. Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday Armenia needed to form good ties with Azerbaijan for the normalization effort to yield results. Emre Peker, a London-based director at Eurasia Group, said a cautious approach focusing on quick deliverables was expected on both sides due to the old sensitivities, adding the role of Russia, which brokered the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire and is the dominant actor in the region, would be key. "Talks are likely to pave the way for more discussions in the coming months. But delivering a comprehensive, long-term pact will prove difficult due to the multifaceted nature of the talks and domestic political constraints in both countries," he said. "The bigger challenge will come from the question of historic reconciliation." The fate of talks would depend on "Ankara's recognition that it must right-size its ambitions," he said.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 14-15/2022
China: Buying Up Europe
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 14, 2022
A staggering 40% out of 650 Chinese investments in Europe in the years 2010-2020, according to Datenna [a Dutch company that monitors Chinese investments in Europe], had "high or moderate involvement by state-owned or state-controlled companies."
When the Chairman of the UK parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, wrote that Chinese ownership of the British microchip plant, Newport Wafer Fab, "represents a significant economic and national security concern", UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng responded that the deal had been "considered thoroughly". Only after considerable pressure did British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agree to a national security review of the sale.
The European Court of Auditors, an EU institution that oversees EU finances, has found that gaining an overview of Chinese investments in the EU is difficult because of the lack of comprehensive data; it seems no one is recording it.
Efficient systems for blocking foreign investments based on national security concerns also appear either to be lacking or simply not used sufficiently.
The "strictest screening frameworks" clearly are not stopping China.
What appears to be urgently needed in Europe now is a deeper understanding of the threat that China poses, as well as the political will to act on it. Action is urgently needed to block investments that serve up Europe's strategic assets on a silver platter to China's state-owned companies, which the Chinese Communist Party then use to advance its expansionist ends.
For more than a decade, China has been stealthily buying up European companies in strategic sectors, particularly in technology and energy. Efficient systems for blocking foreign investments based on national security concerns appear either to be lacking or simply not used sufficiently. (Image source: iStock)
For more than a decade, China has been stealthily buying up European companies in strategic sectors, particularly in technology and energy. China appears to be using these European assets to help fulfil the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ambitions of becoming a global force, technologically independent of the West and ultimately supplanting the US as the world's economic, political and military superpower.
China has been covering up its European purchases by passing them off as ostensibly commercial investments. It has been hiding the state-owned companies involved in the investments behind "layers of ownership, complex shareholding structures and deals executed via European subsidiaries," according to Datenna, a Dutch company that monitors Chinese investments in Europe. A staggering 40% out of 650 Chinese investments in Europe in the years 2010-2020, according to Datenna, had "high or moderate involvement by state-owned or state-controlled companies, including some in advanced technologies".
When, for instance, the Chinese took over the Italian drone maker, Alpi Aviation, the Italian Air Force had already revealed the strategic importance of Alpi's drones, by using them in Afghanistan. In 2018, a company registered in Hong Kong, Mars Technology, bought a 75% stake in Alpi Aviation. Italian authorities knew nothing about the sale and only found out about it in 2021, subsequently opening an inquiry into it. The Italian authorities found that Mars Technology was just a shell company that could be traced to two Chinese state-owned companies. One of them was the China Railway Rolling Stock Corp, the world's largest supplier of rail equipment. The purpose of the acquisition, it would appear, was the appropriation by the Chinese state of Alpi's drone technology, which, soon after the sale, the Chinese began transferring to China. "It's a textbook case," said Jaap van Etten, chief executive of Datenna. "This is the strategy of the Chinese state, pushed by the Chinese government."
More recently, the Chinese took over Newport Wafer Fab, the UK's largest producer of semiconductors, also known as microchips, essential in electronics from smartphones to high-tech weapons. In July 2021, Nexperia, ostensibly a Dutch company, bought Newport Wafer Fab. Nexperia, however, is owned by Wingtech Technology, a Chinese company with close links to the Chinese state. According to Datenna, 30% of Wingtech Technology is owned by Chinese government entities. The UK government, despite that, did not appear to understand the threat. The sale, despite protests to UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, went ahead. When the chairman of the UK parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, wrote that Chinese ownership of the British microchip plant "represents a significant economic and national security concern", Kwarteng responded that the deal had been "considered thoroughly". Only after considerable pressure did British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agree to a national security review of the sale.
The European Court of Auditors, an EU institution that oversees EU finances, has found that gaining an overview of Chinese investments in the EU is difficult because of the lack of comprehensive data; it seems no one is recording it.
Efficient systems for blocking foreign investments based on national security concerns also appear either to be lacking or simply not used sufficiently. Only 18 European countries – among them Germany, France and Spain -- have introduced or updated national mechanisms for screening foreign investments, but apparently they are not always used. Since 2012, Italy, for instance, has used its mechanisms only four times -- two of them in the past 9 months.
According to Datenna, Spain's investment screening mechanism is "one of the strictest frameworks within Europe". Despite that, China has still managed to make large inroads into Spain's energy and nuclear sector.
In 2020, two Spanish companies, Empresarios Agrupados and Ghesa, which design and construct nuclear plants, were taken over by the China Energy Construction Group Planning and Design. That company, it just so happens, is closely linked, via its parent company, China Energy Engineering Group, to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), an entity of the Chinese government. SASAC owns almost 100% of the shares in China Energy Engineering Group -- the parent company of the Chinese acquirer of the two Spanish nuclear design companies. The acquisition was reportedly one of the largest Chinese takeovers of Spanish infrastructure companies ever. Furthermore, also in 2020, Reuters reported that China's state-owned energy and infrastructure giant, China Three Gorges, had agreed to buy 13 Spanish solar plants.
The "strictest screening frameworks" clearly are not stopping China.
What appears to be urgently needed in Europe now is a deeper understanding of the threat that China poses, as well as the political will to act on that threat. Action is urgently needed to block investments that serve up Europe's strategic assets on a silver platter to China's state-owned companies, which the Chinese Communist Party then uses to advance its expansionist ends.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Egypt weighs role as mediator in Sudan crisis
Mohamed Saied/Al-Monitor/January 14, 2022
Egypt called on the parties to the political conflict in Sudan to take part in choosing a new, consensual transitional prime minister in preparation for the formation of a new Cabinet as soon as possible.
Egypt annunced its support for a United Nations initiative for a dialogue between the political actors in Sudan, in a bid to reach a deal that ends the current political crisis. The initiative has been widely welcomed at the international level, including by the United States and the United Kingdom.
Sudan is struggling through its fragile transitional phase to a civilian democratic government, following the popular protests in April 2019 that overthrew a decadeslong dictatorship.
Egypt said that the dialogue between the political parties would solve the current crisis and prevent the country from slipping into chaos, according to a Jan. 8 statement by the Foreign Ministry.
Egypt expressed readiness to support the next transitional government “in all possible ways,” and stressed that “Sudan’s security and stability are an integral part of Egypt’s and the region’s security and stability.”
On Jan. 13, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper quoted an unnamed Egyptian source as saying that Cairo has begun to intensify its contacts with the parties to the crisis in Sudan, in an effort to play a mediating role to reach an agreement that guarantees the continuation of the transitional phase and the selection of a consensual prime minister until the completion of the democratic transition process in the country. Sudan has been going through a state of political instability and insecurity since the military coup in October 2021, through which the army seized power, ending a power-sharing arrangement with civilian partners in governance and which was aimed at paving the way for democratic elections.
Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNITAMS Volker Perthes said that the initiative will be limited to holding indirect and individual preliminary consultations among the Sudanese stakeholders, in the hope for moving to a second stage of direct or indirect negotiations. He told reporters Jan. 10 that the army did not express any objection to the initiative.
But Perthes said that the initiative will not present any political project, draft agreement or proposal to resolve the political crisis, as its role will be limited to facilitating the political process.
UN officials are asking the Sudanese stakeholders to submit their visions to move forward in the process, in the hope of converging views on points of agreement and disagreement at the end of the talks.
However, the pro-democracy groups and political parties that were ousted from power refuse any direct talks with the military and demand the establishment of civilian rule without any partnership with the military.
Osman Mirghani, a Sudanese political analyst, said that the UN initiative came at a time when Sudan is suffering from a complete political blockage and there is no chance of inter-Sudanese dialogue.
He told Al-Monitor that the repression of demonstrators demanding the withdrawal of the army from politics and the resulting casualties complicated the situation and heightened tension between the civilian and military components. The initiative may lead to dialogue so as to reach a solution before hitting a point of no return, he said. The current political scene was further complicated after Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned in early January, weeks after his return to office under a controversial agreement with army leaders.
In the midst of the army coup in October, Hamdok was placed under house arrest, before he returned to office Nov. 21, following a deal with the army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Yet protesters rejected the agreement or any partnership with the military. Under this deal, Hamdok was supposed to lead a government of technocrats until holding the elections in early 2024.
The 15 members of the UN Security Council, in a session held Jan. 12, expressed their support for the UN initiative to end the crisis in Sudan. During the Security Council session, Perthes called for ending the state of emergency in Sudan in order to create an environment conducive to dialogue, stressing that this initiative is "the last glimmer of hope in the country."
Kholood Khair, managing partner of the Khartoum-based Insight Strategy Partners, a think tank that focuses on transitional policy, told Al-Monitor that there is a lack of commitment from the UN to the inclusive dialogue process — as they launched the initiative without consultation and have not spelled out their vision for how the process will be shaped — and reliance on too few international actors to support this. She said, "Perthes has also lost a lot of credibility with the street after supporting the 21 November agreement [that reinstated Hamdok to his position] and telling the Sudanese that they should back it, even though it was a deeply flawed agreement."
Khair added, “The commitment of the generals to this process should be measured by the level of state repression that the generals allow during protests. The security forces are meting out violent repression toward protesters, which is not going to build confidence in a process the generals are buying into."
The protesters have been taking to the streets regularly to demand the establishment of civilian rule. Paramedics close to pro-democracy groups reported that more than 60 people have died in the clashes with security services since the October coup. While the UN initiative is considered the only serious effort that is currently being made to resolve the political crisis in Sudan, Egypt continues to distance itself from the Sudanese crisis. Mirghani said that although Sudan is an important part of the Egyptian national security, Cairo's involvement in the Sudanese crisis is very limited compared to the other regional and international actors that seem more influential.
He noted that the Egyptian role is currently important in contributing to a settlement of the current crisis, considering that Egypt is more capable than any other country in understanding the nature of the political situation in Sudan due to the historical relations between the two countries.
Mirghani added that Cairo is trying to balance its position due to sensitivities that may arise among some Sudanese political elites regarding support for the military at this stage, and thus this may prevent Egypt from dealing with Sudanese issues as it should. Egypt did not condemn the army's takeover of power. Instead, it only called on the Sudanese stakeholders for calm and to exercise self-restraint, according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs a few hours after the coup. Cairo called on “all Sudanese parties to give priority to the supreme interest of the country through national consensus.”
Meanwhile, the Egyptian position is considered in line with the positions of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as the leaders of the three countries had close relations with the leaders of the Sudanese army.
In the beginning, the three countries limited themselves to calling on the Sudanese parties for calm and exercising self-restraint. But the position of the UAE and Saudi Arabia quickly changed when they signed a joint statement that also included the United States and the United Kingdom. The Quartet statement in November called for the “full and immediate restoration of a civilian-led transitional government.”The Wall Street Journal reported in November that Burhan secretly visited Egypt on the night of taking over power and met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as part of a geopolitical move to garner support for his step.
The Egyptian authorities did not comment on the Journal report, but Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry confirmed later that his country does not support one side against another, and that Egypt supports Sudan's stability and focuses on not meddling in its internal affairs. Tarek Fahmy, professor of political science at Cairo University, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt is inclined to support the military component in Sudan.” But he denied that this rapprochement could be evidence of Egyptian reservations about the civilian component. “Throughout the past period [before the coup], Cairo had good relations with the civilian and military components, which was reflected in their contacts and meetings,” he noted.
Fahmy said that announcing Egyptian support for one party at the expense of another would make Cairo lose its credibility. Egypt has not done so because of its special relations with Sudan. “The nature of the Egyptian position on the situation in Sudan is in line with the choices of the Sudanese people, and it continues to support the transitional phase,” he added.
However, Khair said, “Out of the Arab axis, Egypt is perhaps the most pro-military as a principle not just a strategy.”
She noted, “Egypt's preference for the military stems from many things, most notably those related to historical ties between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Egyptian army. In addition, Egypt sees Sudan as its hinterland and an extension of its direct sphere of influence.”
Khair attributed the third reason to the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as Egypt considers it a national security issue linked to their survival, so Cairo needs to secure full support from Sudan and continue coordination between the two countries to put pressure on Ethiopia.
However, Khair concluded, “In the end it is possible that the Arab axis will seek a replacement for Burhan, as he is unable to unite all security actors, or bring about stability to meet the interests of his foreign backers.”

USA: Reliving the Nightmare of a Shocking Christmas Carnage Every Day
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/January 14, 2022
In America's most important city, and within Manhattan, there is now a District Attorney, Alvin Bragg, who has redefined evil: in his view, it is the criminal who needs protecting, not the victim. Bragg (pictured) has directed his office to stop seeking prison sentences for criminals who prey on those unfortunate enough to be walking the streets of Manhattan.
One would have thought that after a repeat felon out on a $1,000 bail is alleged to have driven his car into a Christmas parade in Waukesha, Wisconsin, killing six people and injuring countless others, those who have sought to dismantle our criminal justice system would have recognized how their actions have created murderous carnage across the nation.
But that is far from the case and the lawless cannot believe their good fortune.
In America's most important city, New York, and within Manhattan, its most famous borough, there is now a District Attorney who, in changing what his office will prosecute, has essentially redefined evil.
In a staff memo leaked to the media, Alvin Bragg has directed his office to stop seeking prison sentences for criminals who prey on those unfortunate enough to be walking the streets of Manhattan. In addition, he has instructed assistant district attorneys to downgrade felony charges in cases ranging from armed robbery to drug dealing.
If a foreign nation sought to destabilize our society by creating such a scenario we would consider it an act of war.
According to press reports, the Bragg's instruction to his office stated, "(we) will not seek a carceral (meaning prison or jail) sentence except with homicides and a handful of other cases, including domestic violence felonies, some sex crimes and public corruption."
The memo goes on to offer exceptions even to his exceptions. "This rule may be excepted only in extraordinary circumstances based on a holistic analysis of the facts, criminal history, victim's input (particularly in cases of violence or trauma), and any other information available." And regardless of how heinous the crime, from terror attacks to police assassination, Bragg's memo states, "The Office shall not seek a sentence of life without parole."
The District Attorney has, in effect, redefined evil: in his view, it is the criminal who needs protecting, not the victim. By doing so, Bragg has done irreparable harm to the very fabric of our democracy. He has essentially sanctified and blessed crime that can terrorize entire communities -- especially the disadvantaged that need protecting the most – and inflicted lifelong trauma on victims as well as destroyed the quality of life that our citizens pay for with their hard-earned taxes and have a right to demand from their government. Consider: Bragg believes that armed robbers who use guns or other deadly weapons to hold up stores will be prosecuted only for a misdemeanor, provided there was seriously injured and there was no "genuine risk of physical harm" to anyone.
So we can pose the question, if someone holds you up at gunpoint, are you supposed to wait to see if he will shoot you in order to decide if he will be violent or not?
These kinds of wrong-side-up criminal justice policies have the means to turn our neighborhoods and communities into desolate, forbidding, streetscapes where only the brave or the desperate are prepared to run the gauntlet to get a container of milk.
The actions of the Manhattan District Attorney are not being done in a vacuum. The political movement described as Progressive, and their "bail reform" legislation passed by the New York Legislature, allows arrested felons to be released on the streets before their mug shots can even be printed. You now have a perfect storm for evil to take root, grow, and poison the lives of every law-abiding person and family.
The Irish statesman Edmund Burke has been often credited as warning, "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." That warning has never been more important, urgent, or clear. We are living in an era where an elected prosecutor has deliberately reinvented good and evil. And that destruction of law-abiding values is being replicated by others in other parts of the country, and tearing at the very fabric of our nation.
We cannot afford to turn a blind eye to this cynical and toxic reinvention of justice wrapped in a Progressive manifesto or evil will have, indeed, been allowed to triumph.
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.

Kazakhstan: Echoes of the Autumn of Sorrows
Amir TaheriAsharq Al-Awsat/January 14/2022
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987
Until earlier this month, Kazakhstan, the largest of Central Asian republics to become independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Empire 30 years ago, appeared the most stable entity in the region.
Under President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s iron-fist leadership it had avoided the religious feuds, civil wars, coups and countercoups that had shaken kindred former Soviet republics, such as neighboring Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
However, Nazarbayev’s autocratic rule was not the sole reason for the new republic’s stability. There were at least three other contributory factors.
The first was the boom created by the opening of Kazakhstan’s vast energy resources, including more than 3 percent of global oil reserves, to foreign, mostly Western capital. That, in turn, helped the newly independent republic to offer its citizens the living standards they could not have imagined under Soviet rule.
Next, Kazakhstan succeeded in maintaining a balance in its relations with the three key powers that coveted its wealth and geopolitical value: China, Russia and the United States. In an interview in Davos in 2014, Switzerland, President Nazarbayev quipped that Kazakhstan had “three big neighbors: China, Russia and the United States as a virtual neighbor.”
Finally, Kazakhstan succeeded in sustaining a level of inter-ethnic coexistence unknown in other newly independent republics.
Under Bolshevik rule, Stalin, as Commissar for Nationalities, made sure that every newly created ethnic republic contained a minority of other ethnic groups: Tajiks in Uzbekistan, Uzbeks in Tajikistan, Kazakhs in Kyrgyzstan, Armenians in Azerbaijan and so on. To every ethnic cocktail he also added a sprinkling of Russian and Ukrainian settlers.
In the case of Kazakhstan that ethnic cocktail received a much bigger dose of Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians because of the so-called “Virgin Lands” campaign that Soviet leaders launched to end famine in their empire by cultivating the vast steppes of Kazakhstan.
As a result, at independence, over 30 percent of Kazakhstan’s population were non-Muslim, Europeans, mostly Russian while a further 20 percent were mixed, mostly feeling closer to European groups than traditional Central Asian Muslims. The fact that Russian was adopted as the official language tilted the balance away from the Islamic-Asian identity that had led to so many rebellions in neighboring republics. The latest riots that may be the opening salvos in a long fight over Kazakhstan’s future may mean that the factors that nurtured three decades of stability are now all in question. Part of Nazarbayev’s success in imposing his autocracy was due to the myths woven around his name as the father of the nation and the architect of its independence. As a member of top Soviet leadership before Kazakhstan became independent, he already had special status in the eyes of the average Kazakh.
He reassured those nostalgic of the Soviet past while wooing those caressing hopes for the future. His successor as President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has none of his charisma. Tokayev is a grey bureaucrat who has reached the top by simply being there, something like Konstantin Chernenko, who rose to the top of the Soviet greasy pole just by refusing to die before his contemporaries in the geriatric Politburo.
Next, with the fall in energy prices, the economic boom fueled by oil and gas exports has somewhat subsided while public expectations of rising living standard have not moderated.
Despite massive investment in new energy projects by US and other Western oil companies, annual Income per head that was nearly $27,000 in 2019 fell to just over $25,000 last year.
Three decades of economic boom has also created a new middle class whose political and cultural aspirations do not match its material living standards. Millions of Kazakhs now enjoy material living standards comparable to those.
The next factor of stability challenged is Nazarbayev’s balanced foreign policy. The United States gradual isolationism, starting with President Barack Obama and the closure of US bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, whetted the appetites of both China and Russia for greater influence in Central Asia as a whole.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has launched a long-term geostrategic campaign to regain its zone of influence in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia where Kazakhstan is the biggest prize. It has imposed the new Caspian Convention that, when finalized, would give Russia a virtual veto on key aspects of the economic and defense policies of all littoral states, including Kazakhstan, in the energy-rich Caspian Basin.
For the past few years Putin has stepped up propaganda to woo ethnic Russian and Ukrainians in Kazakhstan as “kith and kin” whose future safety depends on Moscow’s protector. In turn, the Russian campaign has caused unease among Kazakhs who suddenly realize that their ethnic-Russian fellow citizens hold a much higher percentage of plum positions in civil service and the military than their actual numbers would warrant.
The fact that recent rioters attacked shops and other businesses owned or managed by ethnic Russians and other Europeans may be a sign of that unease.
Often suspected of being a Russophile, President Tokayev may have further fanned that flame by calling on Russia and Belarus to send in troops along with mercenaries from the Kremlin-controlled private security firm Wagner to quell the recent riots. Many Kazakhs see his assertion that “invited troops” would remain in Kazakhstan as long as needed as a pretext for a permanent Russian military presence.
To curry favor with Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic groups in a bid to divert attention from his pro-Russian tilt, Tokayev has upset relations with China by allowing Uighurs to organize protest against Beijing’s “crimes against humanity” in East Turkestan (Xinjiang).
Tokayev says that in recent riots “only 20,000 bandits” were involved. But the fact that that almost 200 protestors lost their lives and more than 8,000 were sent to prison shows that a much larger popular uprising, triggered by the sudden rise in domestic petrol prices, may have been involved.
In their early days, the Bolsheviks used a similar claim to justify genocide in Kazakhstan, labelled “Autumn of Sorrows”, ordered by Lenin and orchestrated by Frunze. The current “Winter of Discontent” contains echoes of the “Autumn of Sorrows” that, because Kazakhs know how to abide, did not wipe them off the map of existence. As Kazakh poet Tumanbay Mazdagaliev wrote:
“We had enough flour to last until the summer.
Happiness for us was someone’s help.
My childhood passed by while I kept saying
I will wear my Daddy’s boots when he returns.”

Putin Launches an Unwelcome Cold War Reboot
Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/January, 14/2022
Contemplating Orbs: Imperialism Edition
Vladimir Putin might aspire to be the reincarnation of Peter the Great, but another model of an OG empire-builder he might want to consider is James Monroe.
America’s fifth president bought Florida for roughly the modern-day price of Max Scherzer’s MLB contract, added five new states and ran for re-election without even token opposition. More important from Putin’s perspective, Monroe’s most famous accomplishment — the only reason many American schoolchildren know his name — is drawing a line around the whole Western Hemisphere and calling it off-limits to the rest of the world.
Of course, for a while after the birth of the Monroe Doctrine, Europe still had colonies in the New World. But nobody started any new ones. Andreas Kluth writes Monroe had revived an ancient game many would-be empires played in the following centuries: declaring and defending “spheres of influence,” which often roped in countries that had previously labored under the delusion they had some kind of sovereignty.
This practice lost favor, perhaps not coincidentally, right around the time the Soviet Union’s sphere popped like a balloon in a Chuck E. Cheese brawl. That left the United States alone with a world-sized balloon, at which point everybody agreed spheres of influence were passé. Now, with the growing shakiness of the Pax Americana as Chinese and Russian powers grow, this ugly game is rebooting yet again, Andreas warns. Read the whole thing.
Putin echoes the Monroe Doctrine when he demands the West leave Ukraine to Russia. He’s even getting his sphere all over Europe by curbing the flow of Russian gas, which Javier Blas notes has led to perilously low supplies even after a mild winter so far.
China plays the same game when it threatens and punishes anybody who questions its influence over Taiwan. Beijing isn’t even bothering with the pretense of a sphere when it comes to Hong Kong; its latest crackdown on the free press shows it’s just assimilating the island into the mainland, Matthew Brooker writes. The US and the rest of Team Anti-Sphere must decide whether they want to play this game again or risk going to war to defend the sovereignty of places like Ukraine and Taiwan. It’s not an easy call. What would James Monroe do? Actually, don’t answer that.
Inflation: The Thing That Wouldn’t Leave
Producer prices cooled off in December, from “core of the Sun” hot to just “surface of the Sun” hot. It’s a sign that maybe the inflationary fever is starting to break. But John Authers writes it could take a while for temperatures to fall back to healthy levels, given pressures in housing costs and “sticky” goods and services (not honey or cinnamon rolls, but stuff like toddlers’ clothes and sofas, which parents know can actually get quite sticky).
At the same time, the omicron wave is making a hash of the economy, hurting demand by making everybody sick but also hurting supply, again by making everybody sick. The Fed is determined to tighten policy to fight inflation, but Bloomberg’s editorial board writes it needs to stay frosty and be ready to deal with whatever bizarre new knuckleball the economy throws.
Telltale Charts
While the rest of us suffer from supply-chain hang-ups, container ship operators are making fat bank, Chris Bryant writes. Will they make good use of it so they can keep thriving even after the pandemic ends?

Netflix’s ‘Don’t Look Up’ Is a Lesson in Climate Messaging
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/January, 14/2022
Director Adam McKay’s climate satire “Don’t Look Up” isn’t exactly subtle. The hair is big, the parody obvious, the targets as plentiful as the star-studded cast competing for space — and the planet is about to explode.
The whole enterprise is a monument to anger and frustration, which may explain why environmental scientists have warmed to the film more than film critics. Whether through the missteps of the protagonists or those of the filmmaker, it also offers a valuable lesson on the all-too-real challenges of spreading the word about the need for urgent global action against climate change.
The storyline of this Netflix Inc. dark comedy is simple enough: A Ph.D. student (Jennifer Lawrence) and a timid astronomy professor (Leonardo DiCaprio) have discovered a giant comet that is going to hit Earth within little more than six months. Everyone will die. Yet they can’t convince anyone, least of all the populist, chain-smoking US president, played by Meryl Streep, to take the right course of action. The media is too distracted and everyone else just wants to make money, once the asteroid is found to contain rare earths and minerals.
The movie does get some important things right. It captures the difficulty of expressing a message so overwhelming for our narrow imaginations that it very often triggers not action, but indifference or despair — just as it does on the screen. The exasperation so palpable through the film is a daily reality for those working in climate policy. People really do hear only what they want to hear, as when Streep’s president hangs on to the news that the comet’s certainty is just below 100% — “call it 70% and let’s move on” — ignoring the scientists sitting in front of her. The film portrays the siren call of unproven “win-win” technology and the toxicity of bothsideism. As in real life, the fight between the researchers and political and economic interests is asymmetric.
There’s also much to criticize in a movie that spends so much time being outraged. For one, the metaphor is too simplistic. Global warming is not a single, driverless comet hurtling, unprovoked, toward the Earth. The threat of global warming is diffuse, and worrying for its very unpredictability; moreover, entire industries are accelerating it. Climate disaster also isn’t, in the real world, an equal-opportunity killer.
When it comes to climate messaging, the protagonists fall into plenty of traps. At one point, the movie suggests that the scientists’ failure on a lighthearted chat show is proof of society’s ignorance — but it’s just as much a question of understanding the audience and human biases. No one fails to accept climate change because they are too worried, as they are here, about celebrity breakups. We struggle to understand climate realities that feel distant in time or space, or that are simply impossible to envisage in the context of what we have experienced. Overcoming that cognitive hurdle doesn’t necessarily mean simply following the advice that DiCaprio’s scientist is given — “not too much math” — but it does mean making the message relevant, delivering it through a trusted familiar voice and framing it in local terms.
We know that making communication local is crucial, and there’s ample evidence that trusted messengers, whether community leaders or weathercasters connecting extreme weather to global warming, can change minds — but those trying to convey the message in this film do none of that.
The film also never grants the general population — and even other nations — agency. People respond better to events they can hope to influence, and where solutions are available. When it comes to global warming, that means outlining the problem but then telling your audience they have a role to play — as consumers, for example, and, most importantly, as voters. It’s what turns awareness into action.
“Don’t Look Up” won’t convince anyone who was on the fence, not least because of the lack of empathy. With its black-and-white villains, the story treats naysayers and doubters with condescension, whether it’s the unwashed masses distracted by social media, journalists chasing clicks or Lawrence’s parents in Michigan, who say they are “for the jobs the comet will create” — but get no sympathy or explanation. Hectoring is rarely effective when it comes to changing minds.
But that wasn’t really the point. There is certainly something farcical about the nature of reaction to global warming. People are engaging with the film as a result, and that matters, as Tom Brookes at the Global Strategic Communications Council, a network of public relations experts focused on climate, said to me. It may touch only those already concerned, but as he put it that’s now the overwhelming majority of the world’s population — and a vast and varied group in need of galvanizing.
There’s far better climate fiction. There’s better satire and better comedy, some of it directed by McKay himself. But this film has got millions talking about global warming and is now the most-watched Netflix film in dozens of countries.

China’s interests have moved from Africa to other regions ripe for trade
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/January 14/22
While growing up in the 1980s, my generation was lucky to enjoy several cartoons and animated series, many of which were dubbed in Arabic as was the trend. Amongst them was Astroganger, a super robot whose mission was to fend off alien invaders intent on stealing natural resources from Earth before moving on to other planets.
This fictitious series parallels how China has approached much of its expansion, particularly in the African continent. China’s role in Africa has visibly increased over the last few decades, mainly looking for resources, crude oil, investments and trade partners, and even going into security and the military sector. Accused by foes and some allies, they claim that China is a resource hunter currently plundering Africa.
Over many centuries Europe was guilty of abusing and enslaving Africa, leaving it to recover demographically, socially, and economically. Consequently, these nations looked east towards potential partners, such as Russia and China, yet the results have not always been satisfactory.
Contrary to the infrastructure funding and expertise offered by the West, China does not care about the long-term development of the countries it enters but is never disrespectful to them. Africa’s urban development boom and its urgent need for infrastructure led China to come in as the savior and cater to the need for these booming metropolises. Chinese companies have had the most significant share of these African infrastructure projects, with as much as 40 percent involving Beijing in some way. China’s Africa exodus means that it will look for new grounds, perhaps shifting to the Middle East, writes Makram Rabah.
China’s relationship with Africa isn’t limited to its production capacity and comparative prices to the West; Beijing is structuring partnerships for these infrastructure projects as loans and not grants. These countries have placed on themselves, entering into many claims debt traps that won’t end well for them.
As it stands, it’s estimated that Africa owes over $153bn to China, which Beijing coincidently insists on keeping the content of the monies secret and, in some cases, has gone as far as to deny their existence.
Keeping such loans secretive reflects negatively on these nations’ young citizens, who will discover the exuberant debt they owe late in the day. Some of these loans include the loanee relinquishing national assets and resources in case of default.
This lack of transparency is enough to doubt China’s sincere approach to development and best business practices.
Overall, these policies do not help develop the democracies of these nations that, for many, were caught up in civil wars for decades and governed by authoritarian regimes. China has never presented itself to be an agent of liberalism, nor has it ever proposed that it has a humanitarian mission to achieve. Its soft power and Belt and Road Initiative have always prioritized trade over culture and, more importantly, over freedom and democracy. However, democracy to China is a commodity that is insignificant and is not monetized in any way. To look at it otherwise through a western liberal lens is short-sighted.
More alarming is that China has gradually decided to scale back its involvement in Africa and lessened its investment in infrastructure and loans. While many equate this to the pandemic, others see it as China’s gradual exit of Africa after depleting its resources and profiting from its trade there.
Suppose one is to disregard the economic aspect. In that case, the most alarming fact is China remains involved in an axis of tyranny, with ties to Iran a case in point.
China’s Africa exodus means that it will look for new grounds, perhaps shifting to the Middle East, starting in the supposed rebuilding of Syria. While, as a whole, China has adopted a policy of non-interference, many of its gestures or lack of only end up empowering the forces of chaos that Iran leads in the region.
Undoubtedly, China can be the true superpower it aspires to become. Yet, these aspirations should not come at the expense of weak or desperate nations. Nor should they be a gateway to further chaos and instability. China has projected itself as a third way for the longest time, but it has failed to introduce policies that suggest it will become a sustainable force for change and progress. This is the only true sign of greatness.