Lebanese Fear Being Caught in Trump’s Push on Iran
Yaroslav Trofimov/The Wall Street Journal/February 23/17
BEIRUT—No country is more important for Iran’s regional influence than Lebanon, where the Shiite militia Hezbollah plays an outsize role. Now that President Donald Trump seeks to roll back this Iranian sway, many Lebanese fear their country will end up paying the price.
In a nation of 18 officially recognized religious communities, Shiites account for about 27% of Lebanon’s population, according to Central Intelligence Agency estimates. (No census has been held here since 1932.)
Hezbollah, which has repeatedly confronted Israel, is the only militia that emerged from Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war with its arsenal intact. And, after the last five years of heavy combat in Syria, it has turned into one of the Middle East’s most formidable military forces, one significantly stronger than Lebanon’s multi-confessional regular army.
While designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., Hezbollah is also a powerful part of Lebanon’s government. After a 2½-year deadlock, it secured in October the ascension of a political ally, former army chief Michel Aoun, a Christian, as president.
President Aoun, in turn, this month described Hezbollah’s weapons as an “essential part in defending the country”—a statement that prompted the United Nations envoy to remind him that a Security Council resolution calls for disarming the group.
The administration of Barack Obama, aware of the complex power dynamic in Lebanon, had chosen not to confront Hezbollah’s influence directly. Instead, it aimed to build up central Lebanese government institutions, particularly the army, hoping that one day the regular military would become stronger than the Iranian-backed militia.
President Trump has adopted a far more confrontational stance on Iran and its allies. In a joint statement with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, he stressed the need to “counter the threats posed by Iran and its proxies.”
Hezbollah is by far the most important of these Iranian regional proxies and the shift in Washington came just as Hezbollah, benefiting from regime victories in Syria, reached unprecedented authority inside Lebanon.
“Today, Hezbollah is acting as the main decision maker in Lebanon,” said parliament member Samy Gemayel, president of the predominantly Christian Kataeb party which belongs to the Sunni-led political grouping known as the March 14 alliance. “This is very dangerous. The Lebanese state as a whole can be sanctioned if it is considered to be under the umbrella of Hezbollah. This is what we fear.”
There are many ways the Trump administration could squeeze Lebanon if it so desired—from targeting its banks to curtailing funding for the national army and for some 1.5 million Syrian refugees living here.
“Lebanon would be uniquely vulnerable to a U.S.-Iran escalation. Its banking system is exposed to Treasury actions that can be imposed quickly and painfully,” said Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Lebanon’s central bank governor, Riad Salameh, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview he hasn’t received any communications from the new U.S. administration. Lebanon, he added, has already passed all the banking legislation that the U.S. had requested, and has established strict controls to make sure that Hezbollah or Iran aren’t abusing the country’s banking system, where 65% of deposits are held in U.S. dollars.
“The general policy we are following aims to keep Lebanon integrated in the global financial system,” Mr. Salameh said. “The banking sector is a pillar for economic and social stability.…We are implementing the laws that have been enacted in countries where we have either correspondent banking or in countries where we use their currencies. Therefore the banking sector here is compliant in a strict but fair manner”
“The government is a coalition government and it does represent all the factions of the country, and it is normal that [Hezbollah] is included. But the government has also accepted that it needs to be compliant internationally,” Mr. Salameh said. “Sanctions won’t be warranted because we have done what is required to be in line with international practices.”
Hezbollah last year harshly criticized the central bank and commercial banks for shutting down accounts believed to be connected to the organization’s members.
Hezbollah didn’t reply to an emailed request for comment.
Ali Bazzi, a lawmaker from the Shiite Amal bloc allied with Hezbollah, added that it would be counterproductive for the U.S. to halt aid to the Lebanese army just as it is being engaged against al Qaeda and Islamic State along the Syrian border.
“The Lebanese Army is doing a great job defending the country against terrorists. We really appreciate the assistance of the U.S. and any other country for this mission. But you are not just helping us, you are also helping yourselves,” he said.
Last year, Saudi Arabia withheld $3 billion in funding for the Lebanese army and imposed many other restrictions as it decided to punish Lebanon for what it viewed as the country’s tilt toward Iran in the regional power struggle.
Saudi relations with Lebanon, however, warmed up after the October compromise over parliament’s election of President Aoun—which also involved appointing a Saudi-backed candidate, Sunni politician Saad Hariri, as prime minister.
Mr. Aoun’s allies say they hope the Trump administration, just as the Saudis have done, will realize that its campaign against Iran won’t benefit from hurting Lebanon as a whole.
“Whatever happens between the U.S. and the Iran, the interest of the West is for Lebanon to remain stable,” said Charbel Cordahi, an economic adviser at the president’s Free Patriotic Movement party. “If the stability here is threatened, it’s not only the Lebanese who will be paying the price.”
